wow
.........side line right now




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D has rolled into March

if it snows here grandkids will come over and will hook then up to my golf cart and pull them around

could get fun




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If it snows here grandkids will come over n hook up their sled to our golf cart and I will pull them around

could get fun



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out of D at 25.01 for bounce

natty goal was 3.03
hit 3.038

u can't be perfect
but
like hand grenades.....u can be close n still count

entered 22.35


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out of D at 25.01

natty goal was 3.03
hit 3.038

edit.... looking possibly getting back into D
23.60 area for next leg up
shall see how chart set up goes
make sure chart doesn't get whacked outa line


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wondering if natty goes down further
long term is winter over
does it get to 2.89 for bounce

would put D at 32.92

or does natty break further down because of summer and go to 2.56

shall see

edit..... 3.03 needs hold today....if not could go lower today


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can u explain what u meant by bouncing off the 30

Send me... used to draw lines and used most indicators like CCI... PPO....ADX....and others
Ran several boards as well as MOD here on I-Hub
Ran a TA board several years back called the Pincher board with Charger and others which were top traders....lots of good times
pincher scans work when large volume trading.....u can get turned up side down easily trading equaties
Don’t use indicators any more...each to his own... use what works 4 u my friend

I posted last week felt D bottom would be 22.30 and it landed at 22.31
Looked at the chart and picked my numbers without indicators
Also posted when got into D
I’m not here to put u down or say it doesn’t work... just saying doesn’t work 4 me all the time

Not that reliable 4 me and my trading style

Best of luck to u my friend

cc

PS....keep up the good work....we need all sides to make proper decisions when we trade natty
learned a lot in last 15 years....listening to others and their trading styles.....got here with help from others

Working gas levels are now at 2,767 Bcf in the Lower 48 states. If withdrawals from storage match the five-year average for the remainder of the heating season (October 31- March 31), working gas stocks will total 1,320 Bcf, compared with the five-year average (2013-17) value of 1,697 Bcf. Working gas stocks reached 837 Bcf on March 31, 2014, following withdrawals from storage of 2,958 Bcf during the 2013–14 heating season.






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Cooler weather vs warmer weather causing demand on natty

Freezing temperatures had an impact on natural gas production during the cold snap. Dry natural gas production was at a record level of 539 Bcf during the December 29, 2017 report week, and declined to 517 Bcf during the following week, according to PointLogic Energy estimates. Cold weather led to freeze-offs in the Appalachian and Permian Basins that reduced natural gas production. Pipeline imports from Canada and LNG imports increased during this period, partially offsetting some of the production declines. Withdrawals from storage played a key role during this period in meeting natural gas demand




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natty info

Point Logic....daily analysis
Market Analysis
Daily analysis of the spot-traded physical natural gas market, including coverage of key elements like weather, storage, and pipeline data.


https://www.pointlogicenergy.com/products.html



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EIA report....Supply vs Demand
Gas Week: (1/4/18 - 1/10/18)

Total demand
this week......117.1
last week......136.8

Total supply
this week......82.3
last week......82.7

For the Week Ending Wednesday, January 10, 2017)

Natural gas spot prices fell at most locations this report week (Wednesday, January 3 to Wednesday, January 10). The Henry Hub spot price fell from $6.88/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.11/MMBtu yesterday.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the February 2018 contract price fell 10¢ from $3.008/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.906/MMBtu yesterday.

Demand falls. Domestic demand fell across nearly all sectors, as temperatures moderated from the previous week’s cold. Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 14% compared with the previous report week, according to data from PointLogic Energy, and on Monday fell below 100 Bcf/d for the first time since December 25. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 10% week over week, and industrial sector consumption decreased by 7% week over week after hitting an all-time high on January 1. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 19%. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 2%.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-supply-1


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Derek ops.....agreed supply vs demand is important aspect of trading natty
TA has been tried several times and continues to baffle traders as natty does not allways trade by TA methods when day trading..can clean your clock......the noise in a chart can get confusing at times causing TA to get out of whack...otherwise we would all be millionaires trading natty or any other equity......there area a lot of good traders here who have been doing it for a long time making $$$$$$$$....one can not be correct all the time on any equity.....the noise in a market belongs to the emotion side of it and can be best understood by a train moving down a track.....when it gets to a town it blows itz whistle and those trying to cross that track are cautious as to when to cross....an equity is the same way.....moves like that train
watch for the whistle

a favorite example of mine is waiting to walk across the street at a red light in a major city....look up to the cross or do not cross sign at each intersection....cars pass you by at 15 to 25 miles an hour ( if that is the speed limit) you watch as they pass hoping to get to the other side of the street soon....u wait for several minutes... 5 people waiting....soon grows to 15 people....light changes to yellow..now 25 people are waiting......40 people are waiting....and it turns green....they walk to the other side of the street......the emotion of the market....they anticipated the move and waited....right time they moved to other side of street

our job as traders is to recognize the whisle....red light or green light

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Picked up some D at 22.35


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Natural Gas production should increase about twice as fast as our demand
DEC 27, 2017

U.S. gas production has been at the 77-78 Bcf/d range, compared to 70-71 Bcf/d for the first half of the year
We are now at the highest gas production level ever and highest oil production levels since 1971 (the latter critical to helping associated gas output in Texas)
Don't forget that more demand begets more production, so the largest incremental demand market of exports will help increase production - with more pipelines and higher prices themselves helping to increase output as well
Let by Appalachia producing 26.4 Bcf/d in January (here), rising production is clearly the lid on the gas market, and EIA here has us averaging a whopping 80 Bcf/d next year, compared to 73 Bcf/d this year - going forward, our production should increase about twice as fast as our demand

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2017/12/27/natural-gas-market-update-to-end-2017/#70ae59cd14c0


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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Updated to week ending 1/5/2018

Week End.....Withdrawal / Bld


1-13-17.........- 243
1-13-18........ - 194 Celsius expected withdrawal




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Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Updated to week ending 1/5/2018

Week End.....Withdrawal / Bld


1-13-17.........- 243
1-13-18........ - 194 Celsius expected withdrawal




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Entered D in pre-market this morning
almost entered D last night but wouldn't fill my order
glad they didn't.....entered @ 23.30

off to work....welding up metal sign frames for show
back latter today



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ODP has interesting chart
Dust....jung


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shall see where D lands
does it get to 23.64
or 22.30





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meant to say....shall see where D lands
does it get to 23.64
or 22.30




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MY and others......sorry for not posting
will get with you soon
last 2 weeks been sick with flue
wife now has it
throwing up has not been fun
been drunk before and dry heaved.....but...never from the flue
dry heav lasted for about 15 min....was rough
all I could do was sleep and rest
sleep and rest
today finally feel better

been gone all day puting out signs for gun show
show coming up Feb 3 and 4
will be gone tomorrow trying to fix up my moms house so I can rent it out to pay for her nursing home bills

just supper busy right now....very little sleep or time to play the market
it should rebound soon.....been trading with little movement
causes one to wonder if big boys are unloading on retail
remember the 30 ma
further it gets away from it the more the bounce coming back
compare the different time frames is best advice can give u
some use the 8 and 14 ema's to trade off
use different time frames.....what ever set up u use should work on all time frames

could 23.00 ish be bottom

best of luck
will let u know when move into DGAZ
would be cautious as natty could fall soon

some times not as important to be at the top or bottom of move
but
to be able to be in the up or down move
so
being near the top or bottom can be more important than being at the top or bottom




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heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD)


https://blog.wdtinc.com/how-to-use-weather-data-to-estimate-energy-demand-hdds-and-cdds

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HHD 30Y Diff

https://truewx.com/energy/ecmwfens/




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national cash prices....Demand vs Supply...Short Volume
Short Volume Chart....Daily........HDD 30Y Diff

National cash prices - nationwide chart

http://www.naturalgasintel.com/


Demand vs Supply


https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/#tabs-supply-2

Short .....Volume

http://volumebot.com/?s=UGAZ

https://shortpainbot.com/?s=ugaz

Short Volume Chart....Daily
Gas Weighted Degree Days (CONUS)


http://volumebot.com/?s=UGAZ


HDD 30Y Diff

https://truewx.com/energy/ecmwfens/



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yah....we been opening windows for fresh air

worked some today
putting signs together for next week
headed down south Monday to put out signs

best of luck to yah



cc

was rough one
still not up to par

by next week should be ok




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My.....been out with the flue since tuesday of last week
throwing up has not been fun

just now getting over it
wife now trying to get it
has been real bad for me.....no energy
entire body aching....head aches

have not looked at anything since last monday
should be good by next week




cc

Will be out most of if not rest of week
Work load is heavy right now
Have 2 construction jobs going on right now
With 2 other people wanting me there yesterday
Crazy right now

Putting in zip line before Christmas for grandkids
200 feet long
We are gonna have a blast

hope all is well on your end
Did u get ur dozer fixed

cc

short it.... 2.66 right now


see 2.612




cc

Asian market keeps shorting the pop
are u best trading Sunday contracts
shorting them

warm weather



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closed out this evening

shall see how all this falls out
what a turd natty has been
give n take
give n take







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if you look at either U or D
have you noticed as pps rises short volume increase

rocks back and forth

trading natty is bruttal

for natty to go anywhere.....need be buying dips
when u see this .... up it goes


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Working gas in underground storage

Total......Year ago ......(12/8/16)
3,827 (Bcf)

for week of 2017-12-08
3,626 (bcf)



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natty getting pulled from both sides
rinse ...... wash.....repeat
rinse....wash.....repeat
but
D short side growing






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they been buying since yesterday
giving it support
notice the tails on most of the candles

looking at the charts you can see where it usually runs when u see that
most of the times
unless big guys drop it on u
then
no matter what u do it will drop

we could see a possible run from here
no telling....shall see

......looking at the chart below
they been flipping U....for about a week
in n out.....rinse n wash....repeat
rinse....wash....repeat
believe big boys doing it
they have to get out of short positions....so....they flipping it
they can only do this for so long
creating a tight spring
to
soon let it go....should get good bounce from there
shall see how tomorrow turns out

Date............Short Volume.......Total Volume.......Short Percent
12-14-2017......7,656,962.........16,062,043..........47.67%
12-13-2017......6,665,308.........16,541,153..........40.3%
12-12-2017......13,534,678........25,336,310..........53.42%
12-11-2017......5,088,476.........10,557,954..........48.2%
12-08-2017......5,695,780.........12,140,735..........46.91%
12-07-2017......19,984,662........48,502,977..........41.2%
12-06-2017.......5,850,797........13,094,525..........44.68%
12-05-2017......12,254,352........37,078,461..........33.05%

edit......
D short positions beginning to rise

http://volumebot.com/?s=dGAZ



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U.S. natural gas consumption/supply - Gas Week: (12/7/17 - 12/13/17)

Total supply
this week......82.0
last week......81.6
last year......76.0

Total demand
this week.....106.7
last week......85.3
last year......101

Jan 12th natty was around 3.30
consumption was higher
supply was about same as now





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U.S. natural gas consumption/supply - Gas Week: (12/7/17 - 12/13/17)

Total supply
this week......82.0
last week......81.6
last year......76.0

Total demand
this week.....106.7
last week......85.3
last year......101

Jan 12th natty was around 3.30
consumption was higher
supply was about same as now


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I never did it....Some how you were on ignore
Now See u

cc