Celsius Build projection Oct 26 = 58 BCF

This morning = 60
Monday = 61


cc

Celsius Build projection Oct 26 = 58 BCF

This morning was 60

Monday was 61

cc

hub prices were posative this morning
and
prices fluctuated all day long

not sure how much it affects price of natty futures contracts
someone said it had no affect
need to look into that

the weekly chart is gaining support

cc

Appears to be a gap @ 3.3 & at 3.7

Yes
the jack up was bid week



cc

wish u well on your trades
short was profitable after I bought UGAZ
if you were paying attention
nothing moves in a straight line
I have to work and don't have time to day trade any more

am ahead with my current trade
watching and waiting for move



cc

done....changed it 4 you
thanks

how'z it working for u
long Nov and short Dec contracts

food 4 thought
once I traded 4 futures contracts long
kept them up till just before roll over
before roll over
contracts dropped in price and I was leveraged out
had a margin call
the contracts were called and TdAmeritrade closed out my natty contracts to cover margin call as I was leveraged too far out

I imagine that happens a lot more than one sees with futures contracts
manipulation at it'z best
cost me some $$$$$$$$



cc

Celsius....On the other hand, much of the nation will see a shot of much colder-than-average temperatures late this week into next week as a modified arctic airmass settles south boosting natural gas demand, although its length of stay is undetermined with considerable computer model disagreement. After last week's losses, natural gas is a whopping 14% undervalued versus its Fair Price of $3.41/MMBTU based on current inventories alone according to my Fair Price Model-

All natural gas ETFs have already rotated their holdings into the December contract.

Temperature in Los Angeles today could approach 100F,a remarkable 27F warmer than normal. Even San Diego could see highs in the low 90s, nearly 25F warmer than normal.

A/C demand to be higher in Western Coastal area


cc

Celsius Builds projections Nov 10 = - 1 BCF

Oct 27 = + 60 BCF
Nov 3 = + 19 BCF
Nov 10 = - 1 BCF

Monday Projections were

Celsius injection Forecasts
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF

Not only is the Eastern Sea Board to be cold and using natural gas
The Central USA is getting cold and using natural gas for heating

Western 1/2 of USA is to be hotter than normal....turning on their A/C

natty usage increasing

gonna get volatile here folks
shake n bake time
weak hands taken out
hold onto your hat
dig in those spurs folks

cc

Celsius Builds projections Nov 10 = - 1 BCF

Oct 27 = + 60 BCF
Nov 3 = + 19 BCF
Nov 10 = - 1 BCF

Monday Projections were

Celsius injection Forecasts
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF

Not only is the Eastern Sea Board to be cold and using natural gas
The Central USA is getting cold and using natural gas for heating

Western 1/2 of USA is to be hotter than normal....turning on their A/C

natty usage increasing


gonna get volatile here folks
shake n bake time
weak hands taken out
hold onto your hat
dig in those spurs folks

cc

Appears LONGS were in control 10-17-2017
see below data

Top of the day on Thursday the 17th UGAZ = 11.20
by the 19th UGAZ was 9.50 ish
today UGAZ back to 11.10 and could go to ....???????
some LONGS got taken out
shorts squeezed .....COLD weather coming

Celsius injection Forecasts
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF


some one's on control
lotsa nervous players in market right now
lotsa volume last 3 days
buyers buying bottoms
every NATTY Hub is green right now....NOVA hub up .61
SoCal + 1.29 .... Henry Hub + .17
see below




LONGS were in control 10-17-2017
SWAP DEALER LONGS ............SWAP DEALER SHORTS
171,808.....................................93,352

MONEY MANAGER LONGS........................267,525
MANAGER SHORTS.............................203,297

TOTAL REPORTABLE LONGS.................1,306,945
TOTAL REPORTABLE SHORTs................1,328,591

NON REPORTABLE LONGS...................64,625
NON REPORTABLE SHORTS..................42,979






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Appears LONGS were in control 10-17-2017
see below data

Top of the day on Thursday the 17th UGAZ = 11.20
by the 19th UGAZ was 9.50 ish
today UGAZ back to 11.10 and could go to ....???????
some LONGS got taken out
shorts squeezed .....COLD weather coming

Celsius injection Forecasts
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF


some one's on control
lotsa nervous players in market right now
lotsa volume last 3 days
buyers buying bottoms
every NATTY Hub is green right now....NOVA hub up .61
SoCal + 1.29 .... Henry Hub + .17
see below




LONGS were in control 10-17-2017
SWAP DEALER LONGS ............SWAP DEALER SHORTS
171,808.....................................93,352

MONEY MANAGER LONGS........................267,525
MANAGER SHORTS.............................203,297

TOTAL REPORTABLE LONGS.................1,306,945
TOTAL REPORTABLE SHORTs................1,328,591

NON REPORTABLE LONGS...................64,625
NON REPORTABLE SHORTS..................42,979






cc

take your profits and invest them in
sanctuary hub cities
I hear they are profitable selling marijuana and other medical necesities
buying natural gas to warm their cities as cold comes
natty hubs are rising

long term investing in natty you will loose your money
only trade it
you will be happy......happy long term

eb n flow of the market

long UGAZ

cc

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's President Moon Jae-in said on Sunday the government will continue to phase out nuclear-generated electricity, following a public opinion survey that dealt a blow to his plans to do so.
"We will completely stop all plans for the construction of new nuclear reactors like the government previously stated," Moon said in a statement distributed to reporters by his office.
"The government will also step up usage of natural gas and renewables in order to maintain its stance of phasing out nuclear-generated power.".....etc.....South Korea liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is the world's second-largest consumer of the fuel.



cc

What about the Dgaz gap @ 21.50 to 22.00

Front months are winter moving in

cc

Nov 10th is coming = 0 BCF
locking in for that date
look at 30th temp map....gets real ugly along Eastern Sea board

Celsius injection Forecasts

Oct 20...... +67 BCF
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF

Tues temp map

Wend temp Map

Thur temp map

Friday temp map

Sat temp map

Sun temp map

Monday temp map....30th.....gets real ugly

Thur temp map.....Nov 2nd....cold tru Thurs of week after next week


gets warm for few days
We then have another cold spell coming back at us again


cc

not to sure if short would be way to go right now
the cold is baked in
or
we still have more upward to go
Saturday will be biggest cold day for USA
this gonna be cold compared to last year

sure feels good here in Louisiana
get rid of the pesky mosquitoes n bugs
squirrels around the house are not to be seen


cc

natty contract price Dec 2017 = 3.158 .....Sunday
Friday contract price Dec 2017 = 3.118
contract price for Jan 2018 = 3.283

if demand keeps rising
how will Contango be affected
at these demands
will natty Dec contract price fall
or
keep going upward

natty contract price rolls into Jan 2018 = 3.283
how will roll over be affected if demand stays constant
causing futures prices to rise
considering colder than normal weather demand for natty

what happens if shorts continue to cover
driving Jan and Feb contracts higher

Legacy COT reported Large Spec. 55990 short , Small spec. 21546 Long and Commercial 34334 Long . The net short position of large spec. reduced their short contracts by 23908 contracts from previous week . making it the first time short position was reduced in 5 weeks.

eb n flow of market

we went from 3.00 to 3.30 this time last year
not saying we will go to 3.30
where do we land is question

Dec of 2016 the high was 4.00
not saying we get that high
we have lot more natty in ground this year compared to last year
but
think we could go higher this year
could we hit 3.70 ish
not sure.....depends on winter demands....how cold we get this year

there will be the natural eb n flow of the market
cold weeks....then....warm weeks....back to cold weeks
play it well folks

shall see how it goes this winter

cc

natty contract price Dec 2017 = 3.158



cc

Bid week is coming up

Oct 25th tru 31st
settlement week for next month contracts

cc

Bid week is coming up

Oct 25th tru 31st
settlement week for next month contracts

cc

New York....New York Temps
Minimum Temps during the night
appears they will be turning on the heaters

According to NOAA and European temp maps
temps will be cooler than last year
not cold.....cold....cold
but lower.....so.....natty usage should increase this winter
that is if temps are lower like they predict


Oct..... 25.....2016
Min Temperature ....43 °F Average temp.....47 °F
Oct...... 26
Min Temperature ....38 °F Average temp.....47 °F
Oct......27
Min Temperature .....40 °F average temp.....47 °F
Oct......28
Min Temperature .....42 °F Average temp......47 °F

Nov....1
Min Temperature .....40 °F Average temp......46 °F
Nov.....2
Min Temperature ......54 °F Average temp......45 °F
Nov.....7
Min Temperature ......41 °F Average temp.......44 °F
Nov.....10
Min Temperature ......40 °F Average temp.......43 °F






cc

Celsius injection Forecasts

Oct 20...... +67 BCF
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF

that'z right zero BCF injection by Nov 10th......projected
by Celsius

coulda SHORTZ covering known this was coming

http://www.celsiusenergy.net/2016/01/click-for-full-week-1-details-click-for.html


cc

Celsius injection Forecasts

Oct 20...... +67 BCF
Oct 27...... + 61 BCF
Nov 3 ..... + 27 BCF
Nov 10 ..... 0 BCF

that'z right zero BCF injection by Nov 10th......projected
by Celsius

coulda SHORTZ covering known this was coming

http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/near-term-natural-gas-inventories.html

http://www.celsiusenergy.net/2016/01/click-for-full-week-1-details-click-for.html


cc

with shorts appear to be covering
will be interesting to see how Monday turns out
ur e-mail address could help
will delete this one soon as read it
happy trading next week
call it like you see it my friend



cc

Could be good trade 4 you
If you look at bottom of the chart it says Oct 26 tru Oct 31
One and the same



cc

Could also depend on demand in front months
If they rise....should cash rise will be question
Front months appear to play a part in this as well
If expectation is cold is coming
And
Appears it is
Then front months will tell us
Does contango disappear

Keep in mind shorts r covering

cc

My comment Wend appears to be coming to fruition
I deducted this by looking at the chart
the chart is your friend
link back for my comment

Temp Map Oct 26 tru Oct 30





cc

NOAA Temp Maps.....appear to be cooler as well next week
going into the following week appears to still be cool weather
temps can change.....
shall see how coming weather changes
long term over 2 weeks accuracy is in question
regardless if using NOAA or European temp maps
this summer has been unusually cooler this year
leading me to believe we could possibly see a cooler winter temp year
will it be a cold....cold winter
maybe not ...but....could be cooler than last year
shall see

6 to 10 Day Outlooks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

8 to 14 Day Outlooks
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif


cc

Next Friday European Temp Maps
look at Tuesday Oct 31
cold weather appears to be coming


Friday.....Oct 27



Sat.....Oct 28


Sun.....Oct 29

Mon....Oct 30

Tues.....Oct 31





cc

3.05 near term....3.14 ish long term
believe we have broken out of down trend

eb n flow of market

we were 3.00 to 3.30 this time last year
closed today @ 2.91

temps were warmer last year than this year
we have more natty setting in the ground than last year
but
same token
we have about 2 tankers a week showing up at Sabine Pass
shipping LNG to Foreign Countries

Temps are getting colder than last year

temp for 2016

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Max Temperature ......85 °F
Min Temperature ......65 °F

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Max Temperature .....72 °F
Min Temperature .....50 °F



cc

natty contracts appear to have gone up
Dec contract rose by .05 .........from 3.108 to 3.113 closing today
Jan.....now.....3.241....it rose as well
they appear to be rising
are you going for closing date for Dec contract to be lower....????
trying to understand you approach.....?????

Nov Contract for 2017

Closing date......27 Oct 2017

Dec Contract 2017
1st trade date.....19 Feb 2008
Closing date......27 Oct 2017

Jan Contract 2018
Closing date......27 Dec 2017


cc

As usual
took out weak hands
N
Up it goes

Where it stops
Nobody knows

3.05 ish
Maybe 3.10

breaks tru could go to 3.7 ish..... long term


cc

As usual
Took out weak hands n up it went

shall see how high she goes
Rinse....wash...repeat

cc

thinking about this summer
where I live the summer has NOT been hot
warm maybe but not hot

would say cooler in my area of the USA
Louisiana....normally we are working in tea shirts this time of year
during the summer has been cool....cooler than normal

shall see how it plays out in future
temps can change on a dime here

saying in Louisiana
if you don't like the weather....stick around for a while
you'l like it



cc

Temps are getting colder than last year

temp for 2016

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Max Temperature ......85 °F
Min Temperature ......65 °F

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Max Temperature .....72 °F
Min Temperature .....50 °F


Coupled with more tankers docking at Sabine Pass
appears to be about 2 A WEEK

cc

long term

believe
this will rinse.....wash....n...repeat
several times over


cc

looking for 3.05 ish
maybe 3.10

if have colder than normal winter
if it breaks out looking for 3.7 ish


cc

I held on .....glad I did
now in green

they took out the stop losses
dropped to support
and
BAM.....BAM....BAM
up it went

some times not as important as being at the exact bottom
but being near the bottom
to make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$


cc

European Temp maps......Cool weather coming

Oct 24....Tuesday

Oct 25....Wend

Oct 26....Thur

Oct 27.....Friday

Sat.....Oct 28






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