It is about time ERHE comes back to life.
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For sell on news kind of day, ERHE is holding up strong. Only down a half cent now and it may end up in positive territory.
nh and others, this has been discussed a long time ago but you are mistaken on a few points.
First, In the PSC agreements with the JDZ it it determined before oil is drilled for what percentages of recovered oil is attributable to "cost oil" and "profit oil". From the very first drop of oil in the production phase, ERHE will earn their 22% of profit oil (in block 2). Also from the very first drop of oil in the production phase, ERHE will earn their 22% of "cost oil" which goes directly to Sinopec to pay back their cost of discovery and production. Due to ERHE's agreement with Sinopec/Addax, ERHE will never receive any "cost oil". That is their free carry or free loan as you want to think about it.
ERHE is no real burden on Sinopec as some here allude to in my opinion. Sinopec is huge and cash rich along with chinesh government owned. If Sinopec pays 1 billion dollars in the first 5 years to produce oil, they get $1 billion back from "cost oil" Yes 22% of the cost would typically be paid up front by another company but then they wouldn't get it back either. It is simply a interest free loan which in the grand scheme of things doesn't amount to much with Sinopec.
The bigger cost is the "risk" they are carrying for ERHE. If oil is never found in a specific block of commercial quantities, then the cost will never be recovered by Sinopec for that specific block. Sinopec will loose the 22% they are carrying for ERHE in this example.
I beleive there is still a risk that one or more wells drilled will be dry or not commercially viable in todays economic model but given the location of oil in nearby blocks and the number of structures with potential and the fact they have to drill in all three blocks in the next year, the chances of one of these structures not being commercially viable is fairly low (IMHO).
This is another reason why I don't feel Sinopec will buy out ERHE as quickly as others here predict. I think they will always be interested and keep bidding it up after every oil discovery but I also feel Offors "gap" needs to be filled by discovered oil before it happens in multiple blocks.
I am here for the duration.
Good luck all
I think some people are over analyzing the current price war.
Yes, I wish ERHE was sitting at a share price of $2.47 (lol) right now as I feel it is worth more than that within a year or so but it is not.
I actually think the MM's are doing a pretty good job right now. Most people who follow this board are likely tapped to the hilt (and then some) and those are the only real buyers at this point. Thus, low volume. .70 + or - is a pretty fair range considering the drill hasn't started turning yet (or publically declared to be turning by an operator).
I actually expect a relatively small pop on news when it comes out of the drill bit beginning to turn. I then see a pull back as the MM's collect more inventory on what ever run up occurs. We have 60 or so days in which I think we will then hibernate (for 2 - 5 weeks) and then a gradual to frantic rise as rumors fly or news leaks.
Just My HO.
I am sure the oil companies understand the time to move from one location to another and it may even be a different charge during the commute according to the contract and then $400k - $600k per day once on location. Who knows (oil people feel free to chime in here) but you are right, I doubt they will let it sit at all once in place.
(edit - ah... spoke too soon. thanks midtieroil for the confirmation)
thank you foxo for confirmation that the SEDCO is NOT drilling yet but in SINOPEC's control.
Makes perfect sense. Don't over read into everything people.
Did it ever occur?
To people that maybe a lot of information is true and that not every source has all available information?
Let me go out on a limb here and describe a possible scenario:
1) Maybe Sinopec is actually going to use the Sedco 702 to begin drilling on Aug 20th as the official (and legally liable) PR states.
2) Maybe the Rig report is kind of correct and they state that the Sedco 702 is in STP or GOG drilling which might just be a "status" they assign to all Rigs once they officially set sail from a previous job to the NEXT job. It may take a week or 6 weeks to move the Rig from one location to the next, anchor, prepare and start drilling. The RIG zone may just state "drilling" as a general step. For example, the RIG is not going to port for refit therefore it is on its way to drill. I don't think the Rig Zone cares what stage of transport or drilling the rig is in. They are not going to update the status every time the captain takes a nap.
3) Maybe Africagolds source is correct. Maybe that source is closely tied to Addax and/or deep water pathfinder and it is also in route to the JDZ and it might arrive tomorrow, take a week or longer to anchor and prepare and begin drilling around 8/20 (which makes everyone correct).
4) Maybe AG's source is also correct regarding the NEXT hole punched in block two AFTER the sedco702. Maybe the DWP will be drilling a hole in Block 2 after the first one in Block 4 and then back to Block 4. They would probably want the same technical team on shore looking at the data for all blocks they are associated with.....
5) Which brings me to the next Maybe... maybe Anadarko agreed to a "joint venture" with Sinopec/Addax to have this same "team" that will be drilling in Block 2 & 4, do the first required hole punched in Block 3. Think economies of scale here. Let's use the same technical team, one of the same "rigs" that is already in the area and knock off a requirement in the PSC so they don't loose the future opportunity. Anadarko may retain "Operator" status if they find oil for the next set of holes or going into production.
Bottom line is, a lot is about to happen and a lot is about to be known.
Yes, the stock price and volume is VERY stagnant right now but it is also at a 3 year high. ERHE needs NEW money to enter in to get to the next stage of it's valuation. I think that will happen when the "drilling speculators" start to enter. Since there are so many conflicts of data out there right now, these people aren't buying in. My guess is that they will once any operator PR's that a RIG is in place and IS drilling. This gives a definite time frame for OIL OR NO OIL (about 60 days). Speculation will be rampant in this period.
That is what I am looking forward to.
Good luck all
markgovols, any update from the JDA regarding their inspection of the Sedco rig or if it arrived in the JDA block 2 last weekend?
I am more curious about the block 3 speculation from several weeks ago though. Anything new you can share?
ARE WE THERE YET? As a little child might ask, lol.
Well, for all those people with there noses bent out of shape the past few weeks, you got what you wanted. News! Management enlightened you with the information they had. It turns out, they weren’t holding on to any secrets. It’s pretty much what we already knew. But I hope all those complaining feel better now. You can now apologize to management because they really were doing the right thing by keeping silent until there was relevant news to share. It was the board rumor mongers that whipped many into a frenzy about how much “in the dark” management was keeping us and that our share price would rocket if only they would tell us what was going on.
Guess what, the investment world now knows what has already been written about in industry rags. Sinopec expects to drill using the Sedco in about the 3rd week in August. You can tell by the surge in volume and share price, the value of this information as it is.
Don't get me wrong. I am glad ERHE did a mini “state of the union” PR and I am happy the share price is not drifting lower for the time being. I just feel ERHE could have remained quiet for another two weeks or so and all shareholders would have benefited more from the exact same PR, strictly from the timing. ERHE may have more specific details to release in two more weeks that would provide a much better bump in share price such as the current location of both drilling rigs (which will likely be in route in two weeks or anchoring in position etc.) or a precise drilling start date. That kind of information does not warrant a PR on its own and would be a waste of company capital. With the PR from yesterday, it is now possible we won't hear any news until drilling results (or significant block 3 news, if there is any). ERHE has essentially disclosed the beginning drilling news for both block 2 & 4 and therefore won't have "material" type news to release until results are known.
In the long run, it won’t really matter as I am holding for ERHE to be valued on its reserves. It still will be very exciting over the next three months as multiple drilling rigs begin to unearth the treasures from below (again hoping…). I am sure many here will find other things to complain about as we get closer and we are due for another round of bashers to hold the price down until results are known, lol.
It’s going to be a bumpy road to the top of this mountain. Enjoy the ride along the way.
Good luck to all.
Thank you for bringing that up!
"Have you stopped to think for a nanosecond that the rigs may not be there yet and there isn't anything for them to PR?"
I find it comical how the share price begins to move in the direction we all want over the past few weeks as we get closer to the already PR'd 3rd quarter drilling news, and now people are threatening lawsuits because they think management is not PR'ing a "material event".
Guess what? Management responded many times to this exact situation: "We don't respond to rumors".
So, if the rig already being there is a rumor and it is not true......there is NOTHING to PR.
Walldog,
That is not my understanding. Management, BOD and JCG have simply set the time table and details for a potential buyout with the vote coming on 8/24. They have recommended (and are trying to sell the possitives of) the buyout option. They still have the same options as all shareholders to decide on their vote at the time of the vote. There is also the heavy $300 million backout option for either side.
Don't think too much about the $300 million. It is just to prove the seriousness of the offer. I don't believe there is any games being played or "waiting for drilling results" for this caveat. It is just what it is said to be. A penalty for backing out of the deal by either party.
NOT MATERIAL -
ERHE has PR'd that our partners plan on drilling in the third quarter this year (and as early as July) for both blocks 2 & 4.
If the Sedco is on site and has already started drilling, then NOTHING material has changed since we are in the third quarter.
Yes, it may be material to yours and my wallets as the price will likely spike on speculation of results BUT nothing technically has materially changed for the ERHE business than already PR'd.
Many here seemed to think the company should be responsible to PR everytime a fly burps on an Oil Rig within a 1000 km of the GOG! SHEESH.
IMHO, the company probably has about 30 days to PR the results they get back whether they hit oil, hit nothing or if it is commercial or not (which they might not be able to tell until several holes are drilled). That could be up to 90 days from whenever a drilling rig begins to drill. Quit expecting something any day now.
Last note: yes, it would be nice and probably wise to do a pr with the first rig begins to drill but only from a marketing sense not a legal "material" event. I am all for it.
Midtier,
I didn't get a chance to read your deleted posts about well logs but I for one, appreciate a healthy challenge if it is done respectfully. Many times I agree with your reality check posts but sometimes it seems you go to the opposite extremes of the hype or dreamer posts (not always though).
I am heavily leaning towards oilphant finally blowing a gasket in the past few days though.
Here is my reality check:
First, the only official timeline we have on rigs to be drilling in the JDZ blocks is mid-August (if I recall correctly). Someone with a little more credibility stated that the Sedco has arrived yesterday or the day before. I give a slight possibility of that being true. Where it is getting extreme is the oily posts of drilling depths and what they hit..... ok, you've got to be kidding me for people to believe that! I have never been on a drilling rig but it has to take at least several days just to get anchored and ready to drill. Then, it's in at least 1 mile of water depth before hitting the ocean floor. What's that? another week or two to get to the floor?
PLEASE don't turn this into a pure comedy act.
I am still patiently waiting for the first rig to arrive in Mid August. I will be happy with that. I am hoping for news by Mid October.
Good Luck All
Unless we are in some kind of world war situation, it doesn't matter whether it is a US company or a foreign company that increases its reserves. Oil flows in a free market to the market set (OPEC) prices. China being a communist country with state run oil companies is an exception to this situation. If Sinopec increases their "reserves" by purchasing assets or companies, they have some control where that oil goes to and can control the internal price of oil in their country only.
The big US oil companies drill for oil all over the planet and also ship and sell the oil all over the planet. The "US oil reserves" is usually meaning the amount the US Government has stockpiled for government or emergency use. What publically traded oil companies such as Exxon or Chevron have for reserves has nothing to do with US reserves.
I am not too concerned on which foreign oil company "owns" the reserves as long as they are selling it in the open market. IMHO, there should be some concern for what the future holds for communist or socialist countries who are trying to purchase assets for power. These state own oil companies can control the flow of their oil away from the free markets. But, ironically, some state own oil companies such as in Brazil, control way more oil than their countries will ever need and thus require a "free" market to distribute their assets in exchange for the power (money or other political powers) they receive.
Just ramblings….
It looks to be setting up for an exciting week. Good luck to all and don't forget to enjoy the ride.
IMHO It is highly unlikely that drilling has started, even if the Sedco is on site. I highly believe the comments from multiple industry sources that it takes time to "anchor" and set up for drilling.
My guess is that we won't get a PR until the rig is either just starting to drill or within a day or two.
Last comment: Please people, quit with the "We're in the dark" crying. They have already PR'd that they are drilling in the 3rd quarter for which we are STILL on schedule. It was only rumors that it MIGHT begin as early as July. I could care less if they PR the second the rig starts drilling. I only care about the results. Remember, we still have 60 days from the time it starts drilling before they are done. The share price will have plenty of speculation, rumor, false rumor, bashers & crashers, and hypsters to move all over the board.
I hope the company doesn't PR anything until they hit the ocean floor and at what depth. Then you know they are "in process" of drilling and people can start guessing at when we will hear news of an oil strike or not.
Isn't the Sedco actually in the hands of Sinopec? I know they just bought out Addax but until the deal is done (signed, sealed and delivered), there will not be co-mingling of companies, responsibilities etc. Addax is just waiting on the DP for their JDZ venture to begin.
Must be MM manipulation! D@mn it all. I must get to the bottom of this.
lol, again...just havin a little fun on a Friday.
Have a good weekend all.
No, no, no. Oily's big stock purchase is being kept a secret like OBO-2 and OBO-3 all this time, lol.
Just havin a little fun on a Friday.
OK, that was a worthless and unjustified dip from .6 to .55 and back to .6 again.
Drilling this quarter (now looking like mid August). I'm still enjoying the summer.
.62 At least the price is moving up now. July will be an interesting month
TICK, TICK, TICK
All this deal talk is interesting speculation (although I have written it all off now) but I see it as individuals creative dreams here without much likelyhood of any one of these deals becoming reality. Have fun with the possibilities but if there is oil in the JDZ, the real money is coming soon....
All I care about now is the drilling results. The time is within our grasp.
The first drill ship is on it's way (could be in ERHE blocks by Wednesday of this week)!
Give 2 - 3 weeks set up (my rough unknowledgable guess based on industry people here).
Second drill ship here by the end of July
First drilling begins by the end of July......
Second drilling begins in August
News by the end of September. And then it just keeps on coming. I am going to enjoy this ride.
Now it is time to relax and enjoy the summer.
Finally, an official statement from Sinopec to a noted news source (Bloomberg) and with a specific date (JULY 1st).
Since ERHE wasn't noted, maybe they can PR it themselves but I don't think it is necessary at this point. If I had a say, I would wait a week or two and do one PR when both sites have begun their drilling. It would be a much bigger splash.
GLTA
sorry dane, that was me
Strass,
Good point and I agree fully. I liked the concept of the whitepaper but agree it should come from the company, not shareholders.
Better point is the idea of lifting any restrictions on the ability of insiders to purchase shares. I used to fall in the camp of the insiders running the risk of purchasing to close to news and getting in trouble but with further thought, that can be worked around. There are tons of examples of companies that always have news coming out and the insiders buying and selling for various reasons. If the company would allow ERHE insiders to buy and sell as long as they follow SEC disclosure rules, this would help communicate a more "fair market value" of the current share price.
All that being said, since we are so close to drilling, I can wait for the news I originally invested in ERHE in the first place. OIL and how much of it.
GLTA
Strass, I am mostly there with you....
I do appreciate this article in UPSTREAM because that is more widespread read than our poor ol' IHUB board. So, this has a better chance of attracting new investors to buy some shares off the speculation. Probably not quite the effect as the LA article from years past but a little something.
That being said, I wish they would have held off until they could confirm the drill ship name. It couldn't take that much effort. Who ever the drill ship company is will likely want to PR the contract so it's not like they are trying to hide that detail. Plus, there can't possibly be that many deep water drill ships coming available in two months.....
On the bright side, maybe we will get a double pop off this news. One tomorrow and another when the full details get released.
GLTA
My take on today....who knows?
I am not a short term trader. I am guessing that the oil price drop is holding the price of ERHE down along with all other stocks in the oil sector. Unless Markgovols rumor of the rumor comes out or a large increase in volume happens, I see this floating with Addax stock fluctuations this week. Markgovols has good credibility with his DP rig source so I suspect there is some truth behind a potential Addax/ERHE deal. But, deals of this nature could take longer than expectations so the timing may be off????? Besides, MGV only said "leaks" of the potential deal may happen this week.
I, myself am here for the drilling. I want to see what’s down there before ERHE get's taken out. But if the price is right and we get a share swap of some kind into Addax, I will still be able to play the findings over the next 6 - 12 months with multiple rigs drilling in multiple blocks.
Anything before drilling is just fun to watch... good luck.
Yup, been around the ABCR board on RB. Been a long time since then. Were you grumpy back then? lol.
Been in ERHE since 2001 or so. Should be very interesting next 6 months here.
so far we only have a rumor about the leak to the rumor, leaked out, lol. I think new buyers will need more solid info to get this moving beyond .50.
(edit - now .47 X .48... better)
Time to get back to work. I will say that it is more enjoyable with ERHE hanging out in the .40's as it was in the teen's.
Good luck all.
someone just bought a small amount at .48. who's playing games out there? lol
showing .44 X .48. MM's are killing any potential run unless some big buyers come in. Jeez, 4cent spread. They must be low on shares.
Maskers, good question.
IMHO, if Addax is negotiating directly with SEO for a stock swap buyout, they will likely require a specific holding period for "his" controlled (and Chrome's) shares. This will probably be in exchange for the better than market rate they will be offering. It will also be for his continued "influence" in the region.
For us float holders, it is unlikely that there will be a holding period unless you are a more than 5% stake holder and have been pre-contacted or included in the negotiations (IMHO).
now .39 X .4199
Ask just jumped to .42 according to real time schwab.
Unless there are secret wells being drilled like OBO 2,3,4 etc.....lol
Some people are never satisfied!
Let’s talk management for a moment. Whether you like it or not, if we hire a new, top notch, oil industry experienced CEO tomorrow or two years ago, the share price would virtually be the same as it is now (IMHO). Why? Because this is an asset play. ERHE has no proven until drilled.... Second, no institutional investors are going to purchase substantial positions in ERHE (OTC:BB) no matter who the CEO is (trust this opinion...I work for an institutional investor. Our company owns ZERO position in ERHE... I personally, own an over weighted position. If ERHE hired Lee Iococca, I still wouldn’t discuss it with my peers seriously….).
Now, the picture will TOTALLY change once ERHE has its first proven well. Then, and only then, will new management tell a new story. If ERHE goes out and hires a top notch, industry experienced CEO (non-Nigerian I might add...lol) after we have a proven asset, then it will be a sign that ERHE wants to build this company into something real. If they don't, ERHE is a buyout play....Plain and simple. Now, there are a number of different scenarios that could play out along the way such as hiring a new CEO and still selling off specific rights, etc. But, any way it plays out, ERHE should be at a substantially higher share price when this part of the story unfolds.
Then there are the short sighted people here who justifiably get all excited when they here the news that ERHE's partner, Addax, has successfully contracted one of the best deep-water drilling rigs in the world. Then, a few short weeks later, they are complaining about management that essentially brought that deal forward. I would bet that if ERHE share price was lingering around .60 instead of .30, they wouldn't be as short sighted. Management is doing their job for the stage of business that we are currently in.
People need to be realistic. ERHE now has a specific and reasonable time table (unlike the AA) for their first rig to be drilling in the JDZ. It is 6 months off (worst case scenario). They could surprise and get it earlier. On top of that, ERHE will likely have a total of 3 rigs drilling within the next 12 months (assuming the AA is seaworthy, lol and our block 3 operator brings their own rig to the JDZ).
Nobody knows when the share price will start its accent to the pre-drilling levels or how high it will reach after the first announcement of oil but if everyone really thought about it for a moment or two.... the timeframe is relatively short now (6 months) and the share price will most likely grow in multiples of it's current holding pattern.
For those who are frustrated now, may I suggest taking a break from the daily price watching and come back in three months (or six months if you really want a surprise). Enjoy the spring and summer. Take in a baseball game. Watch the college basketball championship tonight. Watch how Tiger does in the Masters this coming weekend. Go on a spring hike. Plants some flowers. By the time your tomatoes are ripe this year, you will be much more wealthy.
Life is good. Enjoy the ride.
Interesting! bid .305 ask .33 Last .30
so the bid is above the last trade and the spread is pretty wide. MM's trying (successfully I might add) to slow today’s mini burst in volume without news.
I think this is a sign of some news on the horizon considering Addax has had a few good running days also. What that is is anybodies guess.
At least we are green.
Good luck all
Maybe oilphant is really SEO.....lol
btw, when?
Rayank,
First, people need to stop expecting Addax to treat ERHE like their boss. Addax didn't mention ERHE because we had nothing to do with this particular news event (even though we did in ou our own minds). We are simply the sideline beneficiaries of this news item. Addax only mentioned "operators" in the blocks that Addax has working interest in. That is exactly what they should have done. Believe me, Addax stock price gets no additional bump by mentioning ERHE's name. lol.
Secondly, if the stock market and the general world economy wasn't in complete disarray, I would agree with you that the ERHE share price would have shot to .60 plus on confirmation of a drilling program this year. I think we are going through a very, very conservative phase in the investment community. Those with money are holding cash for a better confirmed overall market bottom. That alone reduces the amount of money flowing through the markets and reduces all spikes.
With this good news and positive steps forward, ERHE should begin it’s overdue climb to a more realistic valuation of it’s assets. Proof will be in the results of drilling which are now just around the corner in the world of oil exploration. There will be multiple runs up as we get closer to proven which will provide higher support levels etc.
At this point, I am happy to see confirmed progress and of all my holdings, ERHE is now one of the best holds in my portfolio. For an OTC:BB stock, that is scary!
Enjoy the ride and good luck all
coydog,
Good to see you are still watching ERHE. With the news from Addax out today, ERHE & Addax may be good plays as they go through the phases of drilling and announcements. ERHE still hasn't PR'd this news so the volume is still low (IMO). Since the drill ship isn't going to be on site till the end of the 3rd quarter we should see several spikes going into the 4th quarter but with a general uptrend from these recent lows. Even with horrible markets, I suspect both ERHE and Addax getting better than average accumulation over the next 6 months to a year.
Good luck
(Edit) ERHE just PR'd it 15 minutes ago
tryoty, that post might quite be the best and most concise post on the Addax and Gandur issue. Thank you for sharing.
Strass, you also have every right to be upset as you see it as a failure in your eyes. That is ok, but you also need to stop beating your dead horse and except that others share in a different opinion.
Just think, if Addax comes out with a PR in the next week or two that says the Deepwater Pathfinder is indeed contracted and will be drilling third quarter 2009 in the JDZ for 4 wells, everything Strass has said will be proven to be very wrong indeed. Even Strass will be singing a new tune as his investment begins it’s upward trend from here.
On the flip side, if we don’t hear anything for 5 more months until we start hearing the AA is on it’s way to the JDZ, then Mark & Platts & Southern Man & Upstream & the JDZ source all missed their mark.
Why don’t we all wait and see. Obviously, neither one of you is going to change your opinion in the meantime.
Red,
I don't think the MM's play tricks with half a million shares. They could have done the same run down in price in the last two minutes on MUCH less volume.
I am guessing it was some trader types that never hold over weekends. They may have loaded in the teens and just locked in the gains. Good for them if that's all they were holding for. I do think smarter traders would have stepped it out to hold the price steady but who's to know.....
If we get the official PR soon (likely next week - thanks Mark), it's going to be an awfully fun summer
Good luck all and have a good weekend