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Initial valuation and price per share assumptions
Obviously, investors should do their own due diligence and come up with their own valuation model. That being said, I’ve gone ahead and come up with some general targets, based on the currently available public info. I believe we can extrapolate some basic valuation metrics to come up with a projected share price now that this acquisition is officially closed.
Assuming 272 million shares outstanding, here's a breakdown of what the the market cap of the company would be based on reaching various share prices:
• $0.02 per share: Market Cap = $5.4 million (Just over 1x LAST YEAR - 2023 revenues)
• $0.03 per share: Market Cap = $8.1 million
• $0.05 per share: Market Cap = $13.6 million
• $0.06 per share: Market Cap = $16.3 million
• $0.075 per share: Market Cap = $20.4 million
• $0.10 per share: Market Cap = $27 million
What we know so far from the publicly disclosed info is that 2024 & 2025 should have “significant year over year revenue growth”. Let’s just say conservatively it’s approx 50% YOY rev growth. That’s a BIG number!!....which puts us around $6.5-7m in revs for 2024.
Putting a reasonable multiplier of say 2x or 3x on the current year 2024 revs, should give us an idea of where the pps should be perhaps right now, TODAY…not next year, quite literally, Today!!
Using that rev. assumption and market multiplier, you get a mkt cap value in a range of lets say between $15-21million.
Using the valuation table above, would indicate a fair and reasonable current share price TODAY of around say .07c.
Looking to next yr, let’s say they do $10m or $12m in revs based on prior two yr track record of showing consistent 50% YOY revenue growth…for illustration purposes only, lets use the middle number of $11m in 2025 revs and a 3x multiplier: $11m x 3x = $33m mkt cap…putting this well above .10c
Now, let’s discuss variables and unknown factors that could cause significantly higher targets;
1. How does having a tight cap structure and perhaps having a locked float situation, affect these numbers….i’d argue, that variable could maybe double the above numbers on potential pps
2. The biggest variable is potential other acquisitions….so, maybe you can double the valuation again?? Time will tell.
In summary, based on these metrics and assumptions, the stock appears undervalued below $0.10 and particularly attractive below $0.075.
Please note, these are personal opinions and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Just happened to catch a Cyio banner. Looks great!!! Words getting around
Working on a valuation analysis and some valuation metrics to come up with some projected pps assumptions, now that this deal has closed. Will post some time later today. GLTA
Same here. Value adding shares at these levels. Don’t see it staying here for long.
This is awesome news. One acquisition under the belt. Looking forward to hearing about the next one. CYIO could be very undervalued right now. Been invested here for several years. Sounds like this could be true turning point. Anyone know anything about second acquisition?
Not too many things are funny on this Board . But That’s funny!!!!
There is a time in every company’s past where there stock price did not match the value of the company. Especially early on. Apple , Tesla, , Charge point even now, The company is not the stock price as I’m
sure you know this. Especially in early investing of speculative OTC stocks. Time will tell though.
The day you experience the dog eat dog world of Big Pharma first hand you’d understand the tactics they will go through to stifle a competitor. Perhaps this is all just a greedy investor or team of investors trying to make a buck selling stock. Once OTMs clearly saw no gain on the part of the company insiders, public concern gone!! Someone alleged wrong doing. In that allegation was there a question brought regarding the validity of Growing permits? Think about it … what the heck would the OTCm even care about a SA growing permit. TXTM had no cannabis supply at the time, & never in its history ever claimed to have grown or currently grow cannabis. It’s completely out of the scope of investigating TXTM. Even if they made a mistake, fumbled on to this question and asked it, TXTM responded to the question by confirming we don’t grow cannabis so we have no license to show you, yet OTCm persist to request it. This question had to be a part of the original allegation to even be brought up and the fact that they supposedly persist to hold TXTM under CE requiring its release makes you wonder if it, ALONE, was the original quiet intent of the allegation of promotion in the first place. Maybe it was was about promotion but if it really was , then why has OTCm not brought any charges to anyone, and why after proving no financial gain of insiders is CE still on? On the flip side….why is something the company doesn’t need, doesn’t possess and may never possess, being required ?? In my mind one has to at least consider that the original intent of any allegation was not public concern of promotion but rather to tie up RSA into long US court battles over the legitimacy of its growing permit. This would not stop RSA’s work of growing in SA ( as you mentioned ), but it could stop or interfere with US supply deals with BIG Pharma. A permit says you’re growing with certain standards and if this is called into question Cannabis Co.’s likey will be leery of your cannabis supply. Hope this helps you understand more clearly the link between something as simple as a so called “promotion allegation” and the likelihood of something much bigger at play. Sorry so long. No way around it for clarity.
TS, at first I was just like you and thought” What F}%#^#($;!;!:!!…… just show them the license/ permit and be done with it. Until I began to realize how litigious US Big Pharma is. If your companies livelihood rest heavily on certain permits and licenses and the legitimacy of those same licenses can be called into question by anyone (including your competition) then providing them to those who should not have access could be damaging. OTC is not the competition, however one cannot tell why there is a need to show any license at all so it does make you suspicious of the intent. SA can verify Being in good standing and that’s all that should matter. It’s like a store clerk verifying my identity and asking me for my Drivers license and then going further and asking for my Social security #. Only in this case the backbone of this private cannabis company (RSA) rest on these permits. I’m no lawyer but I understand Dr. J’s anxiety behind requiring it when TXTM has no need for a license. RSA is not named in any investigation and is a SA private company. If TXTM gains a supply deal from another source other than RSA, will every company be required to show their growing license too. Do all the foreign private companies they may supply cannabis to have to show OTCm their credentials as well. You see, He’s not trying to protect TXTM here. He’s in protection mode of the core livelihood of RSA. And possibly his customers as well. The question is not “ why don’t you just give them up”. The question should be “ why do you need them?” No matter what anyone thinks of Dr J or Dylon and operations , press releases, etc. there’s No unrestricted stock owned by insiders and none sold. No gain by company. No change in share structure. CE should not be on. Period !! Investigation should have been closed the minute they saw this. JMHO.
Here is another topic that was raised by Dr J in the video presentation. But nothing since then. I’d also like some public update on this matter. It’s a big deal.
My point is shareholders are tired of ifs. We can handle the truth. A little speculation is good but after 2 years it’s really time to clear things up for your shareholders.
Yes parabolic. These sound like all plausible ideas and I really do believe they are likely, but with all the cryptic clues being fed to the public by Dr J ‘s tweets already, I suspect that there would be no harm in just letting his shareholders know the basis behind the 2 years of waiting. I’d personally like to know what we are fighting against. We would all be okay if we knew the truth. All said….. 1 full year of audited fins, with more to come likely, quarterly fins with assets and possibly growing near term, TXTM tech undergirding the future makes this company one I will not sell until I realize it’s potential.
Parabolic your statement:
“Your assumptions overlook key aspects, such as the known delivery of the product…“
What is this? This has not been disclosed publicly so I don’t think anyone can say this yet. At this point we really don’t know anything about the 2.33M pounds ….nothing since 2022.
All said, as I said I’m no expert at corporate law and I m just speaking plainly. Not accusing. Just saying that if delivery of cannabis has occurred then revenues from that delivery exist. Perhaps the delivery contract of RSA and Txtm is on hold or void while CE is in place.🤷🏽♂️. Maybe the RSA/ TXTM contract allows for no later than 24 months to distribute any delivery fees to TXTM. Who knows?? ??All kinds of theories could be conjured up. Which is my point that public disclosure is so crucial because it would cancel all this confusion. Let’s be clear …. I’m a doctor . Not a lawyer. Your ChatGPT- like responses are overwhelming and not necessary because I’m not building any case or legal arguments. I simply want and need to know more about my investment and I desire to hear it from the company and not a Ride or Die TXTM investor. Don’t get me wrong….You’re a great writer and theorist, but you’re just not enough for me. I’m not selling, I’m not bashing. Just speaking what I need and think in plain language.
I’m Never , ever worried about truth. What ever the truth is it can be dealt with. Besides there is enough known great facts about this company that it has kept me here and will likely continue. But questions still need to be answered especially for your loyal shareholder. I’m not a day trader.
Correct , but we really don’t know if he’s given OTC everything they’ve asked for. It could be he’s holding out on something he feels he should not have to disclose. If he’s fully disclosed everything requested or needed then we don’t know if he’s made a repeated formal request for CE removal. I know it sounds ridiculous that that something so simple could have held this up this long but trust me it can. The repeated strong arm of a legal letter to OTC has worked in the past. And remember that the same lawyer that has gotten other co CE tags removed is the same lawyer we have. He knows the formula. There is something missing. Public understanding to shareholders would anthese questions
I think that public companies are required to report material events within some time period. It was a material event to land the largest Cannabis deal in history. They did correct in announcing it. But it’s also material when revenues are generated from that deal or if that same deal is no long and cancelled. Disclosing neither is a problem and I think this would raise the eye brows of OTCm or any regulating body seeing this. It puts a bulls eye on the company and we definitely don’t want this in the setting of trying to remove a CE. It’s red meat for the sharks. To me Dr J is walking a tight rope trying to walk the line in the middle and he can do this only so long before it will back fire. OTC markets has created an unfair market place by the CE because people want to buy but US investors are closed off from participating. If revs are announced it would be even more unfair, shutting us out of paying lower prices while allowing others to get cheap shares , but it’s still material and he’s under obligations to report. If he doesn’t and it’s found out later we’re in even more trouble. Best thing is public disclosure and give OTCm what they need to remove CE and move the company forward. Litigation and battles will tie us up for many years to come and likely will not yield success in the end. JMO…
I’m not nervous at all. The word to describe me is “confused”. And yes because they are staying current with audited fins and adding assets to the books (increasing valuation ), along with my knowledge of the TXTM -technology that will literally change the Medical Industry as we know it …. Yes I’m willing to stick around another 1,2,3… etc years to see it all happen. Dr J is a brilliant man but he also must follow the rules of running a public company. No matter who he is or how brilliant.
Agreed Buysellrepeat. No company adds assets and keeps current with audited fins in the OTC for nothing. This really is a tell- tell to the notion that something is going on. Likely good things in the background.
My thought is that the company will add more seed assets, but not show any revenues on Q2. My personal opinion is that revenues do exist but they are not being attributed to TXTM. Why… I don’t know for sure , but likely being left in the coffers of RSAMMD. I have my own ideas as to why the co would do this but once again this is all conjecture and just my opinion. No behind closed door talks, and no special talks with Dr J or Dylon. I am not an authority and I welcome any opinions on that idea. In the end we all need to hear from the company.
So the CE doesn’t matter, the 2.3M pound Supply deal doesn’t matter. This just doesn’t make sense Parabolic. A company you invest in announces a Cannabis Deal ( Touted to be the largest cannabis supply deal in history ) and it doesn’t matter??? That’s just not logical. Frankly anyone looking at this from the outside would say no disclosures of a cancellation and no revs from it needs explanation. Oh well, I can see that you’re never going to give even a little credence to logical concerns. Making up theories of what happened or what’s happening would not be necessary if the company just had open disclosures regularly on material events. It’s really not too much to ask of any public company.
And that Update needs to include 2 main things 1. what’s being done about CE tag designation . 2 what happened to the 2.33M pound supply deal.
Well this is exactly what I’m talking about. I stopped counting after 6 “coulds” and 3 “ifs” and 2 “possible scenarios”. You have others on this board saying Dylon got ahead of himself and announced an order that never finished its full negotiating. Not one of these things are Disclosed by a Press Release or a OTCm disclosure. There is only one thing I know for sure from the company. A 2.33M pound order was made. Short of this I’m clueless. And that is not fair to shareholders. No one on this Board knows and if they do they got the info improperly. The Company needs to have an Update. Bottom line. Once again Para…..Thanks for your input. All plausible possibilities but I need the company to speak for themselves.
I agree with you Bonzo. It is the crux of my excessively long post. 😂. More formal disclosure on several points and CE removal. If there was more shareholder updates on the CE removal and what’s been done perhaps shareholders might be settled a bit.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/TXTM/news/EQS-News-PROTEXT-MOBILITY-INC-TXTM-AND-RSAMMDA-LLC-DELAWARE-PROVIDES-SHAREHOLDER-UPDATE?id=378479
Nov 1st 2022
This is the 2.33M pound Initial supply deal that I’m referring to. What happened to this. Why have we not seen information about this. Announced but revs not reported. The amount of time you’ve been invested in a company and how many shares you own does matter. It is the hallmark of one’s support and one’s belief in the future of a company. Asking questions of a CEO and its company does not mean you don’t believe. It means you don’t understand. And I’m not on Twitter /X or Instagram anymore. Too much fake news, violence and fake profiles. Real/ True/Serious investors would never use these as their sole source for investing. Never know what’s real or who is behind the postings. I’m sure your aware of the dangers and high rates of false post and even hacking on these sites. Which is why official OTCM disclosures and Press releases are the best way to communicate to shareholders. As I’ve mentioned before your post are intriguing, provocative, and may even be true, but they are just your thoughts compiled from several Twitter, Instagram and other social media sites. All said…. The co needs to address the 2.33M pound supply deal and other long term visions. No disclosures about it since 2022 leaves me and others in the dark. I really thank you for all you try to do to keep people informed. It’s just that the company really needs to speak on such matters.
Fact: The 2.3 M pound cannabis supply deal was announced. Fact: We haven’t heard anything further since then. It’s my opinion that this supply deal was real and that it’s been delivered, but the revs have not been disclosed on the financials. Why….no one really knows. One thing for sure, if there are revenues the company must disclose this. Putting seed in as assets to increase valuation is fine but doesn’t negate the CEO’s mandate to disclose revenues. OTC may be keeping the CE tag on purely for lack of revenues being disclosed or simply some explanation as to why they haven’t been on the financials after so much lapsed time. Certainly, If we as shareholders are wondering …you better believe a regulating body like OTCm’s is definitely questioning it. Maybe there’s a good reason, but no disclosures on the matter does not look good to anyone looking in from the outside. So many unanswered questions about the supply deal. We have audited fins so legal and accountants have signed off in good faith that there are no revs. Will be interesting to see if Q2 still has no revs and no disclosure on why! Very important that One or the other take place soon. I’m Hoping for the best. Not selling until I see .10 cents.
Yes. Parabolic sounds educated and I must admit his theories are amazing. But they are not to be taken as a voice from the company. Full profile non-psychoactive medical cannabis is a true Game Changer. It will make a serious dent to the opioid crisis. Why the world doesn’t know about this yet is just astounding to me. When I speak of It to colleagues and patients they can’t believe it. For Dr. J and Dr. H to have finished and improved this science is just plain amazing. Im praying that Dylon and Dr J , as the CEO and Chairman can get educated us soon on what’s going on. Let’s Go guys . Let’s go TXTM!!
I absolutely love your post dld_ip!! It leaves no room for big technical comments on BRICS, JSE, RWA’s, Block Chain, Law Suits , Form 10, Confidential Informants or any other somewhat far off plans that frankly distracts from the basic fundamental problem. The CE is still present after 2 years and it must come off. I like seed assets, I like audited fins. But even with them US investors are shut out of the process. The great potential of this publicly traded company will not be realized until this fundamental action happens. I absolutely love TXTM!!! I’m long and strong!!! Been in Protext before it was even a cannabis co and when it was pushing cell phone software. But frankly either there is a material deficiency in disclosure to OTC markets or there has not been repeated Formal request for CE removal. It’s one or the other. If there is no deficiency then Multiple formal emails and formal calls to OTC officials from TXTM Legal should be bombarding the OTCM offices. It seems simple but this is the bureaucratic nonsense way that other companies have been successful when all disclosures are satisfied. Until there is some public update from the company that these repeated request have occurred and failed, shareholders have no reason to believe that all has been done. As a CEO I’d be shouting this out to shareholders every time I had my legal team call or email OTCM for accountability purposes. I’m sorry…. At this point (2yrs ) we have no reason to believe that all the needed info to OTCm has been disclosed or that those repeated formal legal calls for removal have taken place. I don’t understand why but it is what it is. I’ve always been and still am, a BIG supporter of Dr J, (He knows this because I’ve personally told him myself. I consider him a friend and a colleague), but It’s getting harder to know what’s going on without some sort of evidence that a formal plan is in progress. None of the big things Parabolic mentions have been formally laid out by Dr J. or Dylon so as a shareholder I’m not sure what to believe anymore. Parabolic is an eloquent spokesperson, but he does not work for Protext and what he says can’t be used as company guidance. Besides that, these are long term ideas that Parabolic mentions. That said, while I’m routing for their success, they are not guaranteed to work and could be years in the making. I’m even curious to know how these ideas have come up in discord or IHUB because we haven’t seen these in a formal disclosure from the company. I’ve had text conversations with Dr J and he is careful to never divulge these kinds of detailed plans and frankly he cannot for obvious reasons. Formal Public Disclosure is the only way to lay out the big vision or any CE removal plans of TXTM. I’m done rambling ladies and gents. I’m hoping for the best and I’m NOT selling a single share until I see at least .10 cent. I’ll admit. I’m not one of the little guys you speak of dld_ip. I play the OTC when I see something of value and this is the longest I’ve ever held a stock. I live a comfortable life and likely have more shares than many here, but whether holding 1 share or 100M shares… we all want to hear formally from the company. Thanks for your comments dld_ip.
one sincere question. How can you be so sure that the shares being sold, are shares that have been issued by the company. With the 10k coming soon it wouldn’t make sense for them to sell now especially at these prices. And wouldn’t it be more prudent for them to simply convert their shares and hold them in preparation to sell later at a higher price? That, of course, would make the OS count rise slowly, and PPS wouldn’t drop……The share price drop can be any retail share holders giving up simply because they see other respected, charismatic , knowledgeable shareholders speaking negative on public boards. When I come on to this board and read the things being said it makes me want to sell. I haven’t, but if others saw what’s being said on this board Why wouldn’t the average person give up and sell.
They really are!! This is really a big deal for an OTC company. Almost unheard of. If OTCm doesn’t remove the CE something is terribly sinister about them. Really wouldn’t make sense for them to keep CE on at this point.
Looks like no buying this morning. After that sell off yesterday seems like people now are a little skiddish to buy for fear of the selling beginning again. Personally I think the selling is over .
I feel you. Becoming more difficult to believe with the OS rising so much and negative price action.
I second that dld_ip. Hopefully audited financials will make the difference. We’ll see how these financials will increase the valuation.
Hey Infamous. I Contacted CEO and According to Mr Porter When I asked him about Debt Holders converting he said.
“There's not a single debt holder that converted. There's nothing on the internet that you can take as true. Nobody has any non public information. “
Also when I asked about whether he had any understanding of who could be selling
He said:
“There is only one guy who could sell that many“.
Mr Porter did not elaborate on who he was referring to though.
When asked about the price action today and his thoughts on how long this selling might last and how low he felt this selling might last or what PPS he thought the bottom would be. He said :
“Unfortunately there's no way to control
the stock price. Even "managing" it is impossible today. We're managing the business fundamentals and that takes a lot of time. There's not a lot of "value discovery " these days, only trading on the otc and in micro caps in general honestly. We will work hard for you. We appreciate your support. “
For those who own the stock, including you Infamous, This is all I know. Anyone can contact investor relations just like me. I still believe this is a great company and definitely a star in the OTC. Just can’t figure out when its pps will shine like it should. Looks like it Hit .045 today and started its ascent back up rest of the day. Hopefully the selling is over.
Stay strong everyone.
Check your email.
I don’t have ability to PM anyone on IHUB. I choose not to pay for that service.
Hey Infamous, do you have an email address. I’d like to share something with you. Of course , It’s not insider info but it is from Mr Porter.
Infamous, chill out. I don’t live on social media. Wasn’t ignoring you. Check in every blue moon. On here more just recently because of our conversation. I got the email off their website. mark.porter@highwirenetworks.com
Unfortunately he has not responded. This is very unusual for him. I’ve had many email conversations with him. He always responded back same day. He even arranged a phone conversation with me one day and called me right on time . We spoke for about 45 min and he was extremely nice, down to earth and answered questions as best he could. I’m really surprised he’s not responded back to me this time.
“TXTM Investors Group” is the name. Looks like he changed the name. I think he’s very fearful of having a lot of unnecessary negative talk on the server. This IHUB community is pretty toxic and I’m sure he wants to avoid the same kind of paid Basher posting.