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I would be happy w/$4. - but ya never know - take it day by day. We need more volume.
A few straggler shorts around, but for the most part that thorn of ours is gone. And no more Legal suit posts - another thorn pretty much history. Time to rock this town, lets get out from under the wings of the Market in general and up up and away.
I took the opportunity to buy today, 3 times, on a dropping pps each time. The short's game - just don't get it. Been knocking my head against a wall for last half year trying to figure out. Looks like we were over short attack, nope, guess again, right back at it. It s like the better the numbers, the better the balance sheet, short some more. Who knows the games being played.
I gotta feeling no matter what IR says, there is no magic wand to be waved to get this back into the teen's at a fingers snap. Yeah, most all agree fundamentals appear in good order, even if IR also says so. I must admit I am not smart enough to see whatever it is that the shorts see to push this down so much...how about you?
What do you make of today's (and recent last month or two for that matter) drop? Could be little old retail investor like you and me saying, "sure, seems like a good time to sell now at $9.10" Or institutions dumping (for what reason?) Or, continued short attack? Other ideas welcome.
Ok, so we are under pressure of short sellers A. Value. The short volume ratio for last few months has been high, and last few days has been around 25% - ouch. I realize nobody knows, but when might we see this short attack subside? When will A. Value finally cover for good, toss in the towel and move on? Seems safe to say that until they leave us alone, we are not going anywhere, even with an upcoming stellar 4th qtr. reveal and new updated fantastic 2020 guidance. A. Value recently claimed up to 70% revenue this year (2019) is from breakage. I scoured the recent quarterlies and could find no detail breakdown of revenue that might show how much breakage. Any ideas where to find the breakage numbers as % of revenue? Am tempted to call PAYS directly and inquire - would/can they give up this breakage detail info?
Thanks. Any info should be looked into at this point. Just seeking all possible reasons why this big stock price drop. Have you any ideas, given the fundamentals appear sound? Short attack blown out of proportion and really not relevant ? By the way, the article says, "Card breakage appears to now, perhaps once again, be having an outsized impact on PAYS' reported financial results. We calculate that approx. 70% of the pre-tax profits PAYS has reported so far this year (assume 2019) has come from breakage." Yeah, don't believe everything you read, could be true, or not. Gee, would like to see the honest truthful figure of breakage % - if anyone has time to investigate would be much appreciated. Still long with fingers crossed. If we ever see a rebound, should be soon as big 4th qtr. numbers out in couple months.
Stumbled upon article claiming the accounting for "breakage" could be/is troublesome. From $18. to $9. has me worried. There has to be reason why.
Been following Short Volume Ratio (Fintel website). Last week with a bit of an uptrend, the short volume ratio was relatively low at 14-19. Before that we were in the 20's and even touched 33. Last few days back up to 20's with Dec. 19th at 30.47, ouch no wonder it tanked yesterday (total volume 404k, short volume 123k). Apparently, a short volume ratio about 10 is ok, 15-19 is getting high, and 20+ is very high and cause for concern. So the million dollar question is why have we been in the 20-30+ neighborhood? Simply overvalued based on valuation models? Why are the shorts piling on, and when might we expect them to abandon ship and go elsewhere.
The detail on latest 10-Q balance sheet is more than on Yahoo/Ameritrade. The large liability is "Customer Card Funding" $29,565,027. And the current asset is "Restricted Cash" $33,230,890. I assume the liability is what is currently loaded up on cards, and the restricted cash is separate bank acct. to make good on whats loaded up out there in the market. So appears squeeky clean. Reviewing financials, pretty tight ship, actually.
Just trying to help...us all. Don't know how you interpret to be an attacking post.
Constructive help with Financials welcome. It is worth investigating the short attack and their claim of possible cooked books.
I looked at the recent Income Statement & Balance Sheet from 2 sources, Yahoo Finance and TD Ameritrade.
The Cash Acct. appears to show a believable slow uptrend. The A/R & A/P are both practically negligible, and have been for quite some time. This shows they deposit income when earned, and therefore escape the potential thorn of waiting 30 days or longer to collect. And that they pay their basic bills on time. OK, I buy that. The Depreciable assets are token small and also look ok. And of course there is no inventory in this business so no skepticism there.
However, I see acct., "Other Current Assets" at $33,231. There is no detail to this number, at least as far as I have looked. So what exactly is this very large number? Usually I see something like "Goodwill" or other such similar non-tangible, but I don't know in this case.
Then there is another very large number in the Liabilities - "Other Current Liabilities" at $29,565. Again, no detail. Liabilities are what they owe, and in this case, currently. This is a big number with right below it showing line item "Debt" at practically zero (like we have all been touting). Hmm, head scratcher. Aren't Current Liabilities and Debt both what the company owes?
So these 2 Balance Sheet line items have me stumped. Constructive comments and analysis are most welcome. Hey, I don't like the price tank as much as any longs. And these Short outfits aren't stupid.
Are there any other Financial line items that stand out as suspicious as you all see it? Thanks, and an honest good luck to all.
I perked up when I read post about Payroll Cards - hmm, where have I been? Well, called company and as of yet there are no payroll cards, sorry to break it to you. But sounds like they know there is a market to be had in re-loadable payroll cards...perhaps in due time.
And dude, ASP, wins gold medal for most cryptic posts. A little more plain ordinary English would be much better. But it appears you are with us longs.
Now the insider sale today..., all I gotta say is, sigh.
Honestly not expecting much stock price reaction based on Qtr. 3 numbers. Its the potentially a revised Qtr. 4 estimate that may bring this puppy up. Probably just sit tight and wait for 2020 to play out. Next years EPS is estimated to be around $.27 - very nice if actually happens.
Been saying gotta wait until next year for an honest breakout to get back up to somewhere land like we were ($15.-18.). Based on the past year timing, right now, before earnings, should be steady consistent climb - but not. We get a day or two of nice move up, fool ya, back down. Frustrating.
Until we see Qtr. 4 numbers, we may be stuck at $10.-12., and that won't happen until March, 2020. Qtr. 3 earnings will good but not great so doubt any stock price pop when earnings report.
The new card will have been up for the full Qtr. 4, so in March we may see a guidance adjustment for total year 2020. So we have 5-6 months until we may get a pop.
I hope I am wrong about waiting a half year for significant price pop, but do any of you see it differently?
Looking closely at the SEC Form 4's it appears the bulk of the insider selling is a result of newly acquired Stock Grants and Exercising Options. Basically, the officers just were awarded a boatload of stock thru grants and options that they simply turned around and immediately sold. Leads to next question - how/when were they given these grants and options to begin with? Horrible timing, a real bummer considering we went from $18. then down 40% and wall street sentiment extremely volatile right now. Gave back a week gains in one swoop. Now we get to claw back up.
I did phone the company today and they said the new cards were up and running last Monday, Sept. 30th. So that's good.
LoveitinBishop - off topic, but the Bishop area is very nice. I used to work thru college summers at Rock Creek Lakes Resort, up from Tom's Place top of Sherwin Grade. Ahh, the good 'ol days.
Several officers have now sold very recently significant shares. I was blasted for pointing out the first sale, but we are now beyond management selling to go buy groceries or whatever. When I heard news of another sale after market closed Friday, ugh and sigh. We had a nice last week, unfortunately thanks y'all for the kill-joy and rally stopper. From $18. down to $10. and change - no worries mates, says the crew. Coincidence we still have no news on new card and insiders selling? Looking at past performance, we should now be entering a share price move up period (like last week) as earnings post getting close. I have not yet sold, hoping to get back to $13., but now have doubts. From a recent high of $18. down to the Ten's, C'mon management, whats the real story, whats up?
Good to see positive article analyzing this company. I had reason for concern and apparently, according to article I was not alone. However, in conclusion article mentions analyst expects EPS this year to be about .13 with next year EPS at .29 , whew, very nice to see indeed! I did add to my position on the dip into the 8.'s - but with the continued falling price lately I was getting close to having my finger on the "sell" button with strong possibility of buyback later at lower price. Now think I will just sit tight. By the way, the CEO sale appears to be the first of several. Yeah, kind of a drop in the bucket, but c'mon, did/does raise bit of a red flag, cannot deny.
CEO sold.
Been hearing that "know what you own" line for long time now. Ok, please help me know what I own. My original purchase was back in the 65 cents/share days years ago, saw a litigation suit that stagnated this company for year plus, witness a rise to up over $18. Recently an over 50% drop because we were couple months late on a new product down into the 8.'s and now bouncing around 10.-11. with not much near term hope of even making it back to 14.-15. Honestly, my common sense Worried-O-Meter is going up. Companies that have no debt, incredible rise in earnings don't drop that much because they were just simply couple months late in getting one new product to market. The institution buying must have slowed to almost non-existent recently or we wouldn't be toiling around at 10 bucks. Common sense says something is up. I have heard lawsuit rumors, gee hope not again. But other than that I cannot put my fingers on anything conclusive. Going over financials, worst I can find is bottom line net profit percentage is a little low compared to industry avg. Head scratcher here, folks. Sure, sure, wait until 2020 - ok, but what happened to 18.+ just this year?
I have a small block for sale at $8.00 good until cancelled. Just checked after hours, last trade went thru at $8.10, but my shares still sit unsold, and the Ask sitting also at $8.10 not lower. ??? May have to adjust my sell price up a little before tomorrow.
Curious how much shorting today? Tough to believe shareholders woke up this morning and thought , "gee, I will sell my position today.".
6 digit trades - there are a whole lot of shares out there in the float. Part of reason why will be tough to get above decent price, like a buck.
Lowest we have been in a while. This is what we get for a great report? Kinda stupid me, I knew the earnings were already baked in, should have sold week before release. Oh, well, hindsight 20/20.
Must be a concerted effort to push this down as far as possible, shake the tree for weak shares held? After which we should see large institution purchases again. Numbers were very good. Tough to come up with a different reason for push down.
What's up, what did I miss. Oh, well, keep the shares tucked away for now.
Last 20k volume took us down almost a quarter. Hope just cold feet before release.
Whats up, a mild tank job just before earnings? And this after their killer published estimates? Oh, well, not sell any now that's for sure. Sigh.
After hours up to 8.37 - nice. Someone really wanted in before we go up more on Tuesday. Short term analysts say $8-9. Just might have to sell some on Thurs/Fri. - vacation money! Just remember what happened after last stellar earnings came out - nothing, apparently all the good had already been baked into the price. Perhaps buy more on a pull back next week? Who knows.
Was so close to pulling trigger and sell a bunch Tuesday when it went well over $8. - but hindsight is 20/20. Kinda figure whatever great earnings and forecast is somewhat baked into the current pps. Remember, after 3rd qtr. numbers reported (outstanding) the pps did absolutely nothing. Hope that won't again be the case when we soon get year-end figures. I am thinking its time to cash out soon in the $8-8.50 range, and just be tickled happy it got that high. Or other option plan to hold for much longer term.
Was hoping for $5.50-6. in March. The forecasted earnings they put out was HUGE for this thing to move beyond expectations. Might as well hold little longer. And CRMD took a stumble, but could be ok in long run. Take a look at SHMP as well.
Very nice indeed! Was getting a little antsy when we recently toiled around 3.60 per share. Could take a little off the table now, or just let it all continue to ride? Decisions, decisions.
That sure was a lot of shares to buy - yes. And at a discounted price to boot. Heck yeah, I would have bought at that discounted price as well, like no duh. But wait, that means it also sure was a lot of shares to sell - who would sell now, before their best qtr. 4 results, and at the discounted price? One would think the seller could have got more per share on open market, no? Pre-arranged funny business, someone is scratching someone else's back. Must be legal and all I suppose, that's how the real world sometimes work my friends - not always fair.
Yes, after hours funny monkey business going down. Like pre-arranged deals that smell shady. Legal to do such maneuvers? Couple days now this has happened. Hmm. Why they do it in regular hours - someone is getting preferential insider treatment?
This is getting ridiculous. RSI now down in the 30's. No bad news. 3rd qtr. was quite impressive, or so I thought. Good looking new hires. Uplisted to nasdaq. Strong continued high growth. Best qtr is now (4th). Hmm, don't get it. Only thing I can figure is its following the general market downturn.
Am with ya, rolled over bunch other holdings into both this and crmd (thanks Janey & this board). The RSI on this is in the 40's, little undervalued right now - hope a sleeping giant to wake when year end posted around spring break. Did my DD on crmd, was early enough, picked a good entry, bought on dips. Very comfortable right now.
A week after earnings and its lower ? What the heck? The earnings were stellar, or so I thought. Was expecting this to be in the low $4.'s at least. What am I/we missing?
Looked for any news, didn't see any. Sold something else. plowed it all back into tpnl this morning. Bite my nails, but should pay off.
Thank goodness the worst months for the stock market are over, whew! Now we get into the Holiday traditional market upswing. The jobs report looked good and could be the leading catalyst to bring the Bull back.