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Newbie here, but I'd like to 2nd badger's comment from last night - thanks to surfkast for moderating and appreciation for a substantive board. Too many other boards are full of trolls and pumpers. Thanks to all who have been posting solid info.
I bought in Tuesday after President's day - been enjoying the ride since then. Best to all.
(p.s., another Minnesota guy here )
Short interest down significantly. Nasdaq shows that as of 1/29, short interest is 41 million, down from 62 m on 1/15.
I wonder if that is market-wide reaction to Gamestop ? Never put much thought into a potential short squeeze, but given our recent volume, 42 m is no big deal.
Thoughts?
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/plug/short-interest
Its -20 outside here in Minnesota so, with little else to do until f-ball, some random thoughts on Plug Power. Been in & out of PP for more than 15years b/c I fell in love with the potential of this technology as a win-win solution to global warming (economics plus environment). I’m an investor and not a trader.
Some thoughts: Why this time? PP has broken my heart in the past, but I believe this time is different. First we are not alone. Some major players who know a whole lot more than me and have a whole lot more $$ and power than me, believe inn Plug, and they put their $ on the line to prove it. Blackrock, Vanguard, Shaw, . . . and on and on. Unlike days gone by, retail buyers are irrelevant to PP stock price today. I disagree with the constant refrain we hear that the sp is constantly being manipulated – all too easily true in the old days, much less true today. Too much at stake for the big players for them to put up with any games. Call me naive, but most of these players are investors, not traders. They know what they are doing and they are in this for the long run.
Shorts? Fugetaboutit. A year ago short interest was ~ 65m, and that meant 7-8 days worth of trading to cover. Today? ~65 m would be covered in an average day or two. No short squeeze coming. Those shorting PP when it traded at $3 are long gone; now just the heggies covering their a**es, which is fair enough. (I have some retirement $ in Vanguard, so I want them to cover) By the way, anyone harboring GME or AMC fantasies, forget it, ain’t gonna happen.
New stock offerings and dilution? Another fugetaboutit. In the past 6 months we have had 3 major issuances – all gobbled up in a matter of a day or two, and all resulting in stock rising not falling. Seems to me this is conclusive evidence that this was a seller’s market; someone with deep pockets wanted in and smartly persuaded Andy that this was a debt-free way to raise a lot of capital, without really hurting stockholders (are you better off than you were a year ago??)
So, some predictions: As we approach the March annual report, there will be some news released at a regular rate (identity of 1 or 2 new pedestal customers (one in US, one is Europe), more details on SK and Renault, details of the gigafactory in Buffalo, and an indication that another is in the works, Maybe some info on stationary backup data center.
On March 4 we’ll learn beat on revenues, slight beat on earnings (my prediction -.04) Still EBITRA positive. Forecast increased. As often happens, sp will crawl up heading into March 4 (my prediction = $73 on 3/4/21) fall off slightly after, but then steady climb starting around 3/7/21.
Downsides? Technology is still in its infancy, so costs, efficiencies, acceptance, and unknown unknowns are all legit worries. "Green hydrogen" is still a hope, and costs are yet to be established.
I just wish I was 10 years younger so I could just tuck this away for 5 years, and then retire early.
Just some lazy Sunday thoughts from the philosopher who thought all was water (and who also cornered the olive press market!)
Thales
As an investor, not a trader, I ultimately agree with the general judgment that this offering is a long-term good. Seems to me that it sets a new sp bottom at $10.25, well above where we were just 10 days ago
From Barron's today: https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-sells-stock-to-gear-up-for-hydrogen-economy-51597234326
(Whether you agree with their analysis or not, you can't argue with this publicity.)
"Plug management, on their recent earnings conference call, said they were working with truck partners to develop fuel-cell-powered long-haul trucks. That news, along with strong earnings, sent shares up 15% August 6.
Fuel-cell-powered trucks are appropriate for long-haul trucking markets because batteries weigh a lot, making battery-powered heavy-duty trucks better for shorter routes. Nikola recently announced an agreement to sell 2,500 battery-powered trucks to waste hauler Republic Services (RSG). Garbage trucks don’t need to travel hundreds of miles a day.
“After about 100 kilometers [of range], the [energy] density of fuel cells and batteries, it’s about the same,” explained Plug CEO Andrew Marsh on the Aug. 6 call. “But from that [range] point on, batteries grow at a 10x rate ...fuel cells are a distinct advantage because they just don’t take up as much space as batteries will in a truck.”
Batteries run off stored electricity. Fuel cells need, well, fuel.
Fuel-cell development is of higher interest these days, in large part because Nikola says it can drive down the cost of hydrogen gas—the fuel for the fuel cell. Hydrogen has the additional benefit of emitting no greenhouse gases. The chemical products of a hydrogen-based fuel-cell reaction are electricity and water.
Nikola says it can drive hydrogen production below $4 a kilogram—a level that makes it competitive with diesel fuel. The company also plans to build hydrogen filling stations along with its heavy-duty trucks. Plug already has a network of about 100 filling stations in place.
Plug stock is trading at $10.43 at 10:46 a.m. Wednesday, down about 7.8%. Year to date, shares have had a great run, rising 258% as of Tuesday’s closing price, far better than comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average over the same span.
Traders might be disappointed by the capital raising, but it probably makes sense for long-term shareholders. Companies, after all, have to take money when the market offers it."
It is true that some institutional investors may get onboard fearing that they have missed the boat, but I doubt many of them make decisions on such "semi-emotional" grounds. I would much rather have CUSTOMERS jumping onboard. In the competitive market that such companies as Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot exist in, you must respond to the $$ saving decisions of competition. I'll be interested to see who the next "anchor" customer is (Andy said that one is coming soon) The # of institutional investors will take care of itself once signed contracts are in place. "Build it and they will come."
Been in Plug longer than I care to admit, but this time it truly does seem different. In the past, I could always easily see the stock price tumbling on the next ER, the next unfulfilled promise, the next months without any news . . . Now? just don't see it. The big boys like Blackrock and Vanguard won't allow that to happen. Could the SP pull back? Of course. But I don't think we'll ever see $6 again, let alone $2 or $3. If Plug is flourishing during the present recession, the inevitable growth period that will follow should be good times for all.
Cheers,
Thales
Thanks
Question: Do we know what Andy meant by "giga-factory"? Are we thinking in terms of a factory that produces so many fuel cells that its products generate energy in terms of "gigawatts"? (and, if so, annually?) Or was he using the term in a more general sense, just a very, very, big factory? The former is kind of what I thought Elon meant originally. . . the latter is more generic . . .
From Wiki on Leipzig (emphasis added):
The city is a location for automobile manufacturing by BMW and Porsche in large plants north of the city. In 2011 and 2012 DHL transferred the bulk of its European air operations from Brussels Airport to Leipzig/Halle Airport. Kirow Ardelt AG, the world market leader in breakdown cranes, is based in Leipzig. The city also houses the European Energy Exchange, the leading energy exchange in Central Europe.
Companies with operations in or around Leipzig include:
Amazon
Blüthner: piano-manufacturing
BMW
DHL
Porsche
Siemens
Future Electronics
Anyone have info on short interest as of 12/31 ?
Dave,
You can read the filing at the pink sheets website, type in ETCR in the upper left corner and "filings" on the drop-down menu. It is the most recent one.
http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/print_filings.jsp?url=%2Fredirect.asp%3Ffilename%3D0001164150%252D06...
Thales is present and accounted for.
"Life's funny.
People Strange."
- Sonny Liston
I just posted this on RB, but in case someone here still doesn't read that, can I get some advice?
Now that we are being civil, someone help be think this through please.
For the past month or so, we have been troubled by the fact that Scott Haire acquired a significant stock ownership (controlling interest?) in ETCR for a mere $15,000. the fair and skeptical question was always, "What does ETCR get out of this deal beside a mere $15,000?"
We were also long troubled by the fact that ETCR gave away a significant % of revenues (75% in most cases) to VPSH (right?) in order to form an entity that could carry out the pilot and get the necessary work done. A high price, but many of us thought it was what we had to pay to get it done (25% is better than 0, right?)
Now we find that the owner of VPSH and of ENVOII (our tech partner, right?) is willing to give up ownership of ENVOII and VPSH to ETCR, in a stock swap.
Three big questions:
1. Is envoii and VPSH the additional payment for the stock that Haire bought for $15,000 (was that mere $15,00 a "down-payment of sorts)?
2. What, exactly does this stock sway entail? I've heard talk of a reverse/triangular merger. What the he77 does that mean?
3. If Scott Haire already controlled envoii and VPSH, why would he even need ETCR, unless ETCR has something (e.g., veriscrip?) that is quite valuable? And if the ownership goes TO ETCR, then Millard must have had some real bargaining power, right?
Why go through all of this and keep ETCR alive - (and in even a stringer position today than 2 days ago) if there were not something very worthwhile coming down the pike for ETCR/veriscrip ?
Now, can someone offer some answers (or some correction to where I have it wrong)?
p.s., Cyn, it is good to see you posting, and having something to post about!
Anyone wish to offer an interpretation of the PR?
Could it be that the "full" price that Scott Haire paid for his controlling interest in ETCR was not a mere $15,000, but the 75% of revenues that ETCR did not control ? Does that make sense?
Should be an interesting next couple of weeks.
From OTCC as of 3:30 4/25
Equity Technologies & Resources Inc. DL (4/25/2006 3:12 PM)
ETCR 0.034 0.009
Last Price 0.034
Change $ 0.009
Change % 36.00%
or should that be "maties"?
aye-aye, matties!
continuing thoughts while digesting the filing. . . the more I look the less worried I am.
I would love to hear what others more knowledgeable than me think about the exhibits attached at the end - specifically, exhibit 10.8, a loan of common stock shares, repayable with other stock, to raise the money necessasry to bring all the filings up to date (dated last June):
quote:
"(5) As stated in (1) above, the purpose and intent of this Agreement is to provide the means for ETCR/VPS to have sufficient funds to pay for accounting, auditing, tax and legal work necessary to enable ETCR/VPS to make current filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Internal Revenue Service in order to maintain its current stock registration and to operate as a viable company and for the resulting benefit of all stockholders"
(emphasis added, and note that this basically let's us know the the remaining filings are on the way!)
and, exhibit 10.13. a loan from lee tillman, $10,000. (dated last September)
I hereby publicly apologize to Lee Tillman for my critical words to him, and thank him publicly as well.
Now that's putting your money where your mouth is!
Any thoughts on these documents - esp exhibits 10.16, 10.15, 10.13, 10.8 ?
My 2 cents. . .
There is nothing in this filing that should surprise any of us, but it nevertheless is quite sobering. Seeing the obvious in black and white should be a wake-up call to anyone with stars in their eyes. The company has no money, no revenues, significant debt, serious legal liabilities, and apparently no copyright/patent protection.
The reality of SEC public filings these post-Enron days is that no responsible auditors or firms will say anything beyond the stark and very conservative truth--no hype, no BS, no sugar-coating. And that is what we got. If you were expecting a miracle with these filings, you should be cured of that by now.
Is there any cause for optimism? IMHO, no. Is there any cause for hope? I would say two things keep me interested.
First, the fact that any filings at all took place is a reason to stick around. Why go through the hassles and costs of filing? Why not just admit defeat and declare bankruptcy?
Those are intended as real questions - what does anyone think? My only guess is that Millard has reasons to keep hope alive -something is still possible. [Had there not been some talk about financing in the background waiting for filings? I would assume that unless such financing was already contractually arranged, they could not be included in what was, after all, 2003 filings.] I fully expect all the filings to be brought up to date in the near future.
Second, we do have a product, an idea whose time has come. This is the reason I bought into this in the first place and not much has changed in that regard. If we lack the $$ to carry out the business plan, maybe someone else does (although the patent issue trobles me). For $2.8 million, one could get ETCR/VPS right back at the cutting edge of a huge market.
Other thoughts?
I'd love to hear something offical now from Jamie.
any thoughts anyone? eom
While we wait - any interest in another contest?
How about predictions for what happens after the filings?
My guess:
(1) the filings are brought up to date in good order.
(2) We hear from Jamie: "Thanks for hanging in there."
(3) We are told that we are continuing discussion with Kentucky, hope to have something done during the next legislative session.
(4) plans are underway for the "cluster/info" session required by the Rogers' grant to share the news with others
(5) discusssions continue with other states, but nothing more definite.
Any other options?
all imho, of course. Based on nothing other than personal specualtion.
Oh, and share price rises slightly on the filings news (.06), but continues to hover between .04-.06 until some more definite business news occurs.
Happy New Year!
Thales
OK, Now I am going to be unbelieveably fickle. After all these months (years?) waiting for the filings, I would like to see them HELD back until after the first of the year! Let's wait until after the holidays when people are paying attention - they come out now and they'll get lost -
unless there is more news and info to follow.
Jamie is probably thinking: "Geeze, can't please these fickle shareholders no matter what I do!"
Merry Christmas to all and best wishes for a prosperous new year!
National Institute on Drug Abuse report released today. If ever we needed more evidence for the need for VPS, here it is. . .cigarette use down, prescription drug abuse significantly up;
"I'm pleased to see the decreased drug use noted in this survey; however, the upward trend in prescription drug abuse is disturbing," said Dr. Elias Zerhouni, director of the National Institutes of Health. "We need to ensure that young people understand the very real risks of abusing any drug."
In the study, 9.5 percent of 12th-graders reported using the painkiller Vicodin and 5.5 percent reported using OxyContin in the past year. Long-term trends show a significant increase in the abuse of OxyContin from 2002 to 2005 among 12th-graders.
Also of concern is the significant increase in the use of sedatives and barbiturates among 12th-graders since 2001.
http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/12/19/drugs.teens.ap/index.html
Happy Holidays to all. Let's hope the new year brings good news from Jamie
thales2
G' morning.
Euro, I think you are right. If someone was just "scrambling" to avoid a tax-sack and looking to dump a load a of shares - if the two recent days of million+ shares traded were just someone trying to unload and get out to avoid the sack - the price would have fallen even further IMHO. No way do we maintain an asking price of .02 for weeks on end with little volume, then have someone dump more than 3 million shares and have the price not fall.
Likewise, if all of a sudden some buyer appears out of nowhere to purchase 2+ million shares, the price would have risen more than .001.
The fact that it didn't tumble-that there was someone around to buy what was sold at .02 for only .021-- sure seems to have been a designated receiver willing and able to pay the asking price, suggests to me that this pass was called in the huddle, the q-back threw where he intended, and the receiver ran his route as planned.
Go Irish! Beat USC!
Yes, very interesting activity today. 2 million, more vol. since I can't remember when, and the ask stayed at .03 and .035. (I'm out of money, but I put a very small token bid in at .02 and didn't get filled.) Someone dumped a lot of shares, no doubt about it. But why didn't the ask come down? One read: a pre-arranged sale. thoughts?
FFF: Can you explain the differnce between "real time acces to data" and "real time access to real-time data" ? If your quote means the former, I'm not sure I follow your point. If you have "real-time access" to data that is days, weeks, months old, how much help does that supply to law enforcement? to emergency medical personnel? to pharmacists? Certainly that is better than access that takes hours or days, but it is not as good as access to real-time data, is it?
Welcome back, Kotter,
er, I mean, Cyn.
Horschack and Vinnie Barbarino, where are you now?
lol
don't scare us like that, eh?
thales2
Hit: it would be interesting to know how and when they acquired them. 1,000,000 recently at .03 would be $30,000 - about the cost of a good audit, no? dream on.
Silver fox and Cyn, thanks. Cyn, DON'T, I repeat DON'T go back to RB to check. lol.
Is there a reason no one has posted this email -rather than sending copies to all who ask? Did Jamie ask that it not be posted?
Howdy all, I've been keepin a very low profile - staying away from the boards, esp RB with all the wackos over there, for a while.
Anything going on? Anyone hear or know anything?
Wasn't there supposed to be some "cluster training event" of sorts?
Still holding & hoping - (as if there are other options at this price
thales
Thanks Cyn. Thanks Al.
Does anyone remember Salleng's offical title/position? Is he a public employee? One would think that public employee ought not to be in private conversations with indidviual investors concerning potential public contracts. Phrases like insider information, and conflcit of interest come to my mind. What would his supervisor think of having him quoted on a stock message board?
LOL. Sorry Al, I started my reply before yours appeared. Sounds like we are on the same page.
Sparky. It has been down for a day now - someone on the RB board quote Millard as saying he removed it on advice from the SEC attorney.
If true, that makes a lot of sense to me. Despite appreciating the "fireside chats," I always wondered about them. It seems to me that ANY info coming from a CEO should be "official" and "public" - that is, either via a filing, or a PR release (preferably after hours as Jamie always did). Anything short of that could hint of inside info - after all, not everyone has internet access and not everyone knows about the website updates. I could see the argument that those who had access to the investors' page had an unfair advantage.
so it goes. keep the faith.
p.s. did anyone hear the interview with Newt Gingrich yesterday on NPR's talk of the nation ? he again strongly endorsed electronic medical records in general, and prescriptions specifically.
interesting volume yesterday and today, dontchathink?
and just in case anyone doubts that the price is easily manipulated while we wait (and while some hands weaken), recognize that this morning's drop to .06 was a function a sale of 5000 shares - or, a whopping $300, minus fees.
stay strong
It is nice to see some more activity here. Perhaps some more of the "regulars" will migrate over and we can leave RB to the crazies.
It was two years ago next week that the pilot contract was granted - after, what, months and months of waiting and missed deaedlines. Geeze, we were all a lot younger then.
I know Cyn has posted some old rock 'n roll references:
"What a long, strange trip its been."