Dakarois
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Estimated Primary Completion Date August 2020 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)
We should be getting interesting PRs and updates this week about businnes collaborations. Hold your shares DMC is going to favorable to AVIPTADIL.
YEAH, FEW TIMES A YEAR. Some doctors are already talking about it here as an alternative treatment. The Swiss are French so are we. Now I am on Mount Top Klimanjaro, Nice!
2 hour ahead of Dakar, SenegaL: 01:15 PM
LOLOLOLOLOL
He is not stupid to fall into another fiasco like in the hydroclo*********.
Beside ,there is no public data showing oleandrin has ever been tested in animals or humans for its efficacy against COVID-19, but the extract has shown some evidence of inhibiting the virus in a non-peer reviewed laboratory study.
It is RFL 100
Estimated Primary Completion Date : October 1, 2020.
It is just IMMINENT
Don't get shaken out like a dead tree leaf. Hold tight or you will end up regretting it. For every seller there is a smarter RLFTF buyer. This is the real deal.
Very well put but I find it hard to believe this is your one and only post or did you just change your name profile. Interesting comments though. I will give you a followup. Thanks
The company Relief itself requested it:bodes well, I am not worried the least. Major PR to follow.
On request of the company, SIX Swiss Exchange AG has suspended the following security from trading further notice.
I do too. It's called devotion , passion and commitment. It's all good folks. Positive reinforcement.
Not worried the least> this is typical open leg down. Everything is in the waiting. You cannot chase this fast enough when it runs.
Did you just read my mind ?
Absolutely! But i don't think it is quite clear in his head yet. Allthe odds are stacked on our side. I will take 60 over 30 anytime.
If it's not good odds just stay away from it, If you own it then liquidate and don't even look back.
Suite Yourself!
If it's that crazy ,just stay away ,sit on your tail and watch the show begin, . It 's going to get crazier and you couldn't handle it, or could you? lolol
MY advice: hit the ASK price @ open. You will never see these lower prices. Next week = 2 MAJOR PARTNERSHIPS ANNOUNCEMENTS WITH BIG PHARMA BIOTECH.WORD UP!
Please just wait it out, sit on your tail, watch the show and look for that elusive price target. Good luck.
Not yet! Please call them and ask they sticky it all day.
If you sell all your shares, stay on the sidelines and keep dreaming you wishes will come true. LMFAO lollolol
Come on now! We all make mistakes. he is forgiven. lol
When you figure out what the bottom is ,let us all know GENIUS.
not a chance! not even in the wildest dream nightmare! Are you a weak leaf being bumped around or an octopus?
i am holding like an Octopus sucking up blood. sellers have no clue what is about to come: Huge monster profits. MARK MY WORD!
Valuation
In the abstract of Dr. Javitt's pre-print, "Vasoactive Intestinal Peptide treats Respiratory Failure in COVID-19 by rescuing the Alveolar Type II cell" one statement stands out to me that is most compelling as to valuation:
Because of its lack of toxicity and low cost of manufacture compared to proprietary biologics, VIP may be uniquely attractive to those focused on global countermeasures against COVID-19.
Coming up with a valuation is difficult because there are many unknown variables, "known unknowns" as it were, to quote Gilead's former Chairman Rumsfeld again. In my estimates of valuation I'm going to make a wild assumption from the outset: that RLF-100 is successful in receiving approval globally for the treatment of COVID-19 in both critical and mild to moderate patients (preventing their progression to critical).
Relief Therapeutics has not to my knowledge decided pricing that a dose of RLF-100 will be. In critical patients, IV administration 50 -150 pmol/kg/hr over 12 hours is the process. In the mild to moderate trial, patients will receive nebulized RLF-100, 100 micrograms 3x daily.
However, according to Relief and NeuroRx, the cost of manufacture is low, and, of course, the dosing amounts mentioned above are extremely low. That could result in a high margin to Relief Therapeutics, even after manufacture, fill/finish and distribution agreements are necessarily struck.
How many doses will be required globally? If, over the course of the pandemic (estimated at 5 years), only 1% of the world's population (76 Million people) will require dosing with RLF-100, either to prevent worsening of their condition, to recover from a critical condition, or even as a prophylaxis, that would equal 228 Million doses (at an average of 3 doses per patient). If each treatment dose results in only $50 to Relief Therapeutics net, that equals $11.4 Billion in net income over 5 years, or $2.28 Billion per year on average. Assuming dilution of 600 million more shares and applying a price to earnings ratio of 18 on that and you have a share price of around $18 per share.
Of course, this could be way off the mark, mainly because of the aforementioned missing inputs such as cost of manufacture and dosage price. I think only 1% of the world's population over 5 years is a quite conservative estimate of usage requirements.
It's hard not to look at the valuations of various companies going after a vaccine to try to guess at a valuation for Relief Therapeutics:
Company
Market Capitalization
Moderna (MRNA)
$29 Billion
Novavax (NVAX)
$8.7 Billion
Inovio (INO)
$3.2 Billion
Vir Biotechnology (VIR)
$6.53 Billion
The Emergency Use Approval (EUA) of Remdesivir by the FDA added $10 Billion to Gilead's market cap overnight when it was first announced. And as we all know, Remdesivir has only been shown to be effective in reducing hospital stays by about 4 days. It also comes with side effects, contraindications, and a median price tag of $2,730 per treatment course if you average the insured and uninsured price.
Adding a $10 Billion market cap to Relief Therapeutics gives us a stock price of about $5 per share, and a total market cap of about $12 Billion.
In the previously mentioned interview with Zurich-based publication, The Market NZZ, Relief's Chairman Dr. Selvaraju had some valuable commentary that reflects his perspective on valuation:
Q: Ram, at the beginning of the year, the market capitalization of Relief stood at merely CHF 2 mio [million]. In the past week, the value has grown to more than CHF 1bn. This surge was driven by hopes that Relief has a drug candidate - RLF-100 (Aviptadil) - that showed in first clinical trials a rapid recovery from respiratory failure in the most critically ill patients with Covid-19. In addition, independent researchers have reported that Aviptadil blocked replication of the Sars-CoV-2in human lung cells and monocytes. How does that feel?
A: I believe the attention we are getting now is a function of the severity and the global nature of the Covid-19 pandemic. And, it is a function of the fact that we have been fortunate enough to move a clinical program ahead very quickly: We have now started to see evidence that the drug is working. Many other people have tried things in Covid-19 and didn't get very far. That reflects, how challenging it is to treat this disease and how rare it is to identify a therapeutic that actually can have an impact. That is driving the attention on our stock now.
Q: In order to justify the current market value well in excess of CHF 1 bn, Relief must be building up a profit potential of more than CHF 100 mio. [million] per year that is realizable for at least 10 years in a row. Is this realistic?
A: That is very realistic. The Covid-19 pandemic has officially infected 19 Mio. [million] people worldwide. However, that is a gross underestimate of the actual figure. The official numbers reflect only how much testing is done. The number of people that get sick and face respiratory difficulties is somewhere between one and five percent. That might not sound like an impressive statistic. But given the numbers of tens of millions of people infected, this is a sizable population, particularly if you look at the relative benefit of our drug: If it saves lives, how do you put a price on that?
Q: What are your revenue expectations?
A: If the drug is approved there are three scenarios: Assume it is approved in an environment in which Covid-19 disappears very quickly. I think we can almost totally rule out that scenario. It looks more like that the problem is actually getting worse. The second scenario is an approval for the drug while the disease persists for several more years, but eventually goes away. In that context, we think it is quite likely that peak annual sales of RLF-100 would be much higher than the CHF 100 Mio. [million] annual figure mentioned in your question. The pricing depends on the competitive landscape and the question if there are effective vaccines available etc. In this base scenario and with effective vaccines available, it will take several years to deploy them. Our drug would have four to six years of potential deployment for those patients who get severely ill - and it could generate hundreds of millions of dollars per year during that timeframe.
Conclusion
We all know that biotech investing can be a risky proposition. We must be rational, skeptical, and cautious at all times when investing. There are times when one decides to put their risk capital to work. I have done so with Relief Therapeutics.
Throughout this piece, I have tried to point out the risks, uncertainties and to give a fair picture of Relief Therapeutics and its prospects.
As COVID-19 continues to spread in an uncontrolled manner in various countries including the U.S. and experts in virology and vaccines caution that a viable vaccine still won't be a panacea. If it is as effective as the yearly flu vaccine, that means that 40-50% of those vaccinated will have protection. That leaves nearly half of the population unprotected, not to mention those who don't get vaccinated. A recent survey indicated at least 20% U.S. residents will refuse to get vaccinated.
Therapeutics are clearly needed to help stop this destructive force, and I believe that the science behind RLF-100 is sensible, the lung cell target is rational, and the method of action theorized matches up extremely well with the effects of the virus. If RLF-100 is successful, the low cost to manufacture and relative ease of manufacture will be a boon not just to the comparatively wealthy U.S., but to the entire world
Very instructive, informative lecture .It is clear for everybody to understand. I think medical students and all RLFTF holders would understand more once they listen to it. This is great. i see now why the FDA fast tracked it. We will prevail.
russia claims to have vaccine. But it's not going to fly here.
could it be because Russia claims to have developed first COVID-19 vaccine | Sputnik
Russia's President Vladamir Putin that the world has its first vaccine against the coronavirus. The President announced that the vaccine has been registered and his daughter is among those who have been vaccinated. The move comes before the country plans to start mass vaccination in October. Watch report
It's a pivotal trial, not even on Clinical trial 2 yet, let alone on fast track. Stop the pump. Get real with RLFTF
Downward elevation? what kind of English is this or is it just intellectual masturbation? Be simple and clear.
you bloody damn well right it is . It would be even criminal. we r heading over $ 10+ sooner than you think. MARK MY WORD!
YOU BLOODY DAMN WELL RIGHT ABOUT THAT.
My L2 TDA seems frozen, i don't see it. If it is so i suggest you load up the freeking boat @ open. I am just `ready to hit the ask.
Please care to let us know and post it here when they do , TX.
let them bark all they want. dogs never stop a passing caravan. Don't let them get into your skin.
va te faire foutre
va te faire foutre
bye bye bubae, no need posting again, we got your message. Don't even look back so you can save yourself the regret .
I smell a big leaderboard buyout.It's IMMINENT
MARK MY WORD!
please , go ahead and back it up
I couldn't ve said it much better. If anyone is waiting for that illusive .50 cents : GOOD LUCK or farewell goodbye.