VSAT -2.34 to 8.83, might get a bounce, but there was bad news in note 12 of yesterday's 10Q filing - also the 4 year chart shows a relentless downtrend, but lots of volatility to make profits on short term rallies.

10Q - pg 41 -

Pursuant to the Company's continued integration of its networks and related satellite portfolio, in January 2025, the Company has determined that certain ground network infrastructure locations in the EMEA markets will be exited, certain related assets disposed of and long-term contracts terminated. The Company anticipates in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 to record impairment charges and other liabilities related to the exit activities in the range of approximately $130 million to $180 million.

SMCI +2.50 to 41.11 after hours. 2025 guidance cut, but 2026 guidance is way ahead of analyst estimates.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/smci-stock-supermicro-fiscal-q2-2025-business-update/

AES - thanks for the commentary. We'll know a lot more when they report on 2/28. In the meanwhile maybe the stock will find support at $10. It bounced off that level today.

AES -.66 to 10.09, a new 5 year low and still it keeps dropping. One negative you didn't mention is the high debt to equity ratio and that the bonds are rated a lowly BBB- by S&P, just one notch above junk bond territory.

Hopefully we'll get some "not so bad news" when they report on 2/28.

fwiw, I'm averaged in at $13.02 with an adjusted cost basis of $12.01 when accounting for covered call premiums and dividends.

SMCI is a weekly options roll for me .... currently I own no shares but wrote naked puts expiring Friday, strikes 33, 34 and 35 .... I'll find out on Friday whether or not they get assigned.

SMCI -1.55 to 41.10, today's 5pm conference call will be highly interesting. The stock is up over 50% in the past week, albeit seeing some profit taking today ahead of the update.

FLNC -6.11 to 6.96, sure is getting a haircut and deservedly so !

fly -

Guggenheim double downgrades Fluence Energy to Sell, says 'not time to step in'
As previously reported, Guggenheim downgraded Fluence Energy to Sell from Buy with a price target of $6, down from $26, following the release of the company's Q1 results, which missed estimates and included significant revisions to the company's outlook for FY25. The energy storage market is still growing, but Fluence's struggles to execute even in the currently favorable environment have caused the firm to "reassess our approach to valuation," the analyst tells investors. The stock is likely to trade down sharply today, but the firm does not think it's time for investors to step in yet, the analyst added.

Fluence Energy price target lowered to $10 from $24 at Citi
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Fluence Energy to $10 from $24 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm expects the stock to be down sharply today after the company reported fiscal Q1 below expectations and reduced fiscal 2025 revenue guidance by 15%. The results will raise questions about Fluence's outlook given declining selling prices, worsening oversupply from China, increasing competition, and potential headwinds from anode anti-dumping investigation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

06:11 EST FLNC
Fluence Energy downgraded to Sell from Buy at Guggenheim
Guggenheim downgraded Fluence Energy to Sell from Buy with a price target of $6, down from $26.

04:37 EST FLNC
Fluence Energy downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
BMO Capital downgraded Fluence Energy to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $10, down from $22. The company's Q1 update "raises sufficient doubt" about Fluence's competitive position, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says a second consecutive downward adjustment to fiscal 2025 revenues suggests market share loss and more reliance on international markets than expected. BMO now sees limited margin for error even after re-basing fiscal 2025 guidance.

ESOA - good call on shorting in the $19's in mid December !

WU - according to the 10K, LACA (Latin America and the Carribean) account for just 11% of overall revenues, so Cuba is probably under 1% .... not a big concern unless Trump puts more sanctions on other nations.

WU -.17 to 10.44, I added some shares today .... surprised to see it drop this low from 11.37 just last Thursday ! Looks like a bargain to me.

NMRA -.15 to 1.73, yeah it's a dog. I'm averaged into the stock at $3.05, but thanks to covered calls that I roll over monthly my adjusted cost basis is $2.19. Hopefully some catalyst will propel it higher at some point. I'm waiting it out but it could become a tax loss sale by year end if not sooner.

SMTC -18.28 to 36.23 after analysts lower price targets but maintain buy ratings -

fly -

B. Riley cuts Semtech target on 'eroded' near-term Nvidia opportunity
B. Riley lowered the firm's price target on Semtech (SMTC) to $68 from $85 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company Friday night guide down on fiscal 2026's CopperEdge opportunity, likely triggered by an Nvidia (NVDA) driven architecture shift away from NVL36x2 configurations where Semtech was designed-in to single-rack NVL72 configs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Riley now recognizes Semtech's near-term Nvidia server rack opportunities are "eroded," which it views as "disappointing." However, the firm does not believe artificial intelligence-related revenue potential is erased for Semtech, as it suspects some investors might fear. The company's intermediate to longer-term AI opportunity "remains a powerful revenue growth driver," contends Riley.
07:41 EST SMTC
Semtech price target lowered to $54 from $74 at Needham
Needham lowered the firm's price target on Semtech to $54 from $74 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm cites the company's 8-K reducing its FY26 active copper cable - ACC - single- use-case total addressable market as it now expects net sales in FY26 from its CopperEdge products used in 1.6T ACCs to be lower than its previously disclosed floor case estimate of $50M, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The management expects to generate revenue from CopperEdge linear equalizers in FY26 and beyond, and the firm is taking this opportunity to pull all CopperEdge revenue out of its model, Needham adds.
06:54 EST SMTC
Semtech price target lowered to $70 from $75 at Stifel
Stifel lowered the firm's price target on Semtech to $70 from $75 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company filed an 8-K after market close on February 7 to disclose that January year-end revenue from CopperEdge products used in active copper cables, especially in AI/data center applications, are expected to come in below the prior "floor case estimates" of $50M, citing changes to rack architectures and recent feedback from a particular server rack customer. While "disappointed" with the Friday disclosure, the firm maintains a Buy rating on shares at this time, though it lowered its target to reflect the reduced upside potential in calendar year 2025.
06:48 EST SMTC
Semtech price target lowered to $55 from $75 at Piper Sandler
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Semtech (SMTC) to $55 from $75 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is also reducing estimates on Semtech for the current January 2025 quarter as well as for all of 2026 ended January. The primary reason for its estimate reduction is due to the 8K filing by the company suggesting a change of rack architecture at Nvidia (NVDA), which as a result, reduces its forecast around Semtech's active copper cable opportunity.

SMTC (39.85) - I don't follow the stock, but clearly that 8K with reduced FY26 guidance caused the selloff, despite $50M being just 6% of revenues. Maybe this news has broader implications on the rest of their product line ? In any case the stock did look overvalued, so a selloff was arguably justified. Maybe it will get a bounce in the coming days ?

Here's a recent bearish article on SA - it was a good call when the stock was at $76, but maybe not anymore !

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4750424-cant-defend-this-valuation-downgrading-semtech-to-a-sell

Nice trading on WU and DIN !

RITM (11.49) posts solid Q4 earnings - dividend yield is 8.7% for this mortgage REIT and their earnings suggest it will eventually be increased -

briefing -

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.60 per share compared to $0.54 in Q3.
Reports total revenue of $2.1 bln.
Newrez: Origination & Servicing segment pre-tax income of $280.2 million in Q4'24, excluding the MSR mark-to-market and related hedge impact of $204.5 million, up from $250.7 million in Q3'24, excluding the MSR mark-to-market gain and related hedge impact of $(235.5) million.
Genesis: Residential Transitional Lending segment pre-tax income of $3.5 million. Origination volume of $1.2 billion, an increase of 101% YoY
The company announced today that its Board of Directors authorized stock repurchase programs of up to $200 million of shares of the Company's common stock and up to $100 million of shares of the Company's preferred stock through December 31, 2025.

WU covered call premiums are also excellent for a conservative stock like this .... I've written covered calls for all my shares.

Schwab website is hanging with a clock, but ThinkorSwim is fine.

CMRE +.08 to 11.77 after posting Q4 adj EPS of $0.69 and FY24 adj EPS of $2.76. Container and dry bulk shipping rates are depressed but the stock looks oversold when considering they have locked in 96% of their containership charters for 2025 and 69% for 2026. Dividend yield is near 4% and it's trading at a deep discount to TBV. I added a few shares this morning.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costamare-inc-reports-results-fourth-105900324.html

SMCI 2.34 to 31.50 in premarket after announcing full availability of its newest AI servers -

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-ramps-full-production-nvidia-140500413.html

WU (10.38) posts Q4 results. A slight miss, but 2025 guidance is decent and the stock is cheap at just 5.8x forward EPS estimates. And the 9.1% dividend yield is excellent and seems sustainable. I plan to add some shares today.

briefing -

Western Union misses by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line (10.38 +0.11) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.40 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.42; revenues rose 0.6% year/year to $1.06 bln vs the $1.03 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues in-line guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $1.75-$1.85, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.81 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of $4.115-$4.215 bln vs. $4.2 bln FactSet Consensus.

CNRD - thanks, it will be interesting to see their Q4 results in late March and then as 2025 quarterly results get released we'll get more clarity on gross margins absent the money losing barge contracts.

I added CNRD to my watchlist. I've owned it before, but that was many years ago.

CNRD - ok, thanks - but it would then seem that the 9 month period ended 9/30/24 would also have separately included favorable adjustments to the $33.5M in charges for 2023 .... to what extent those favorable adjustments offset the $10.8M charge is unclear. Therefore it's not possible to determine adj EBITDA or gross margins for the 9 month 2024 period.

pg 22 -

The improved results primarily related to improved performance on contracts and favorable adjustments on projects for which we recorded forward
losses in previous periods

Swick - CNRD looks like an interesting turnaround play given the wind down of those fixed price barge losses, but according to the latest quarterly, there were also favorable adjustments to prior period forward losses for the 9 month period ending 9/30/24, but it's unclear what the net of the favorable and unfavorable credits and charges were. Where did you see the $10.8M figure ? Does that include the favorable adjustments ?

Q3 report pg 22 -

Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 in new construction totaled $12.4 million,
compared to gross loss of $16.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023. The improved results primarily
related to improved performance on contracts and favorable adjustments on projects for which we recorded forward
losses in previous periods, partially offset by forward losses primarily due to the award of the sixth, seventh and eighth
YRBM vessels during the first nine months of 2024.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/416680/content

AVNW +3.04 to 23.59 after hours, Jun FY25 estimates were $3.47 as recently as early last October with the stock at around $19. Those estimates have since plunged to a mere $1.19. Yeah, this company has been a serial disappointer, so I wouldn't count on them to hit 2nd half guidance.

ENPH - nice quarter and guidance .... I may pick up a few shares tomorrow. Owned this one last year but sold for tax loss purposes after disappointing results for Q2 and Q3.

SMCI +1.68 to 28.53, hopefully we'll be getting good news on Feb 11th. Fingers crossed !

PLTR +21 to 105, congrats on this being your largest position, despite having written covered calls .... maybe you should consider buying some of the calls back for tax loss purposes and allowing the stock position to become a long term capital gain ?

Great call recommending PLTR to the board a year ago at $23. Wish I had listened. I took a look back then and thought it was a bit too richly valued. Big mistake !

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173795624&txt2find=pltr

LITM - I got some fills yesterday in the $0.60's on GTC orders .... flipped some of those shares today in pre-market at $0.84, then wrote covered calls on the rest. The trading profits and hefty covered call premiums have brought my cost basis down to $0.63 on my remaining shares. I've place new GTC buy orders at $0.70 and lower, waiting for the next dip ....

PLTR +18 to 102, a new all time high, the stock is a monster. I was tempted to short at $75 a few weeks ago. Glad I didn't !

Magnificent 7 up just 1% YTD -

 
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 META     19%        697.46       585.51 
 AMZN     8%         237.42       219.39 
 GOOG     6%         202.64       190.44 
 MSFT     -3%        410.92       421.5 
 TSLA     -5%        383.68       403.84 
 AAPL     -9%        228.01       250.42 
 NVDA     -13%       116.66       134.29 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            1%
                            

NVDA -8 to 112 in Sunday evening trading .... tech stocks are getting hit particularly hard. It's going to be a bad day for the "Magnificent 7" tomorrow, but maybe it's a buying opportunity ? I'm not so sure ....

S&P Futures down 1.8% and Russell Futures down 3.5% in early Sunday evening trading on fears of a trade war, UGH .... O&G prices are up sharply. I hope it gets resolved quickly, or else it will be very inflationary.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-trump-tariff-fallout-begins-canada-mexico-vow-retaliation-economic-uncertainty-da522b44?st=VZ9JaB&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

MANH -4 to 210, looks like it's finding technical support at around the 52wk low, so appealing from that perspective for an oversold bounce .... but the valuation is still rather high when considering the soft 2025 guidance.

fly -

Manhattan Associates price target lowered to $275 from $310 at Loop Capital
Loop Capital lowered the firm's price target on Manhattan Associates to $275 from $310 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results and guidance were a "mixed bag" as foreign currency shaved $33M from as-reported RPO and several customers pushed out services implementation projects due to macro concerns, causing management to lower its 2025 outlook, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the share price drop that's set to play out however, Loop "sees an opportunity" for investors to buy shares into the weakness as it continues to view the company as an "exceptional franchise".
09:14 EST MANH
Manhattan Associates price target lowered to $270 from $315 at DA Davidson
DA Davidson lowered the firm's price target on Manhattan Associates to $270 from $315 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its guidance miss. The price target cut is a reflection of both lowered expectations and multiple compression, but the 20% subscription revenue growth post-2025 is a key incremental datapoint, and while the stock fell 25% afterhours, the firm "believes strongly" that the enterprise is not worth a quarter less than it was before yesterday's earnings, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
09:06 EST MANH
Manhattan Associates price target lowered to $270 from $305 at Raymond James
Raymond James lowered the firm's price target on Manhattan Associates to $270 from $305 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's Q4 results exceeded expectations, but a lowered Services outlook took shares down 25%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Manhattan's "strong" bookings will likely be overlooked with a headline growth guidance in the low-single digits, as customers have taken a much slower implementation schedule for projects in 2025. Raymond James believes the new forecast assumes little recovery of lost services through 2026. The company's bookings and cloud trajectory remains intact and long-term investors "may finally have their buying opportunity," it contends.

LITM (0.78) is worth a look .... Snow Lake Resources is an exploratory stage uranium and lithium miner with several projects underway. Uranium is the fuel for nuclear power plants. They recently did capital raises giving the company several years of cash at the current burn rate.

I recently picked up a small position but consider it very speculative. Options trade at high premiums which is good for hedging.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4747521-snow-lake-resources-the-recent-spike-in-volume-may-be-justified

WBA -1.44 to 10.02 after suspending the dividend ..... that 10% yield was too good to be true and the recent lawsuit by the Justice Department forced them to conserve cash ....

DEERFIELD, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) today announced that its board of directors is suspending the company’s cash dividend historically paid to stockholders on a quarterly basis, as management continues to evaluate and refine its capital allocation policy consistent with the company’s broader long-term turnaround efforts.

This change in capital allocation is aimed at strengthening WBA’s balance sheet by reducing debt over time and improving free cash flow, as the company works toward achieving a retail pharmacy-led turnaround underpinned by a sustainable economic model. The company’s cash needs over the next several years, including with respect to litigation and debt refinancing, were important considerations as part of the decision to suspend the dividend.

WBA leadership remains focused on successfully executing against its strategic priorities and maintaining financial discipline, which it believes will deliver sustained value creation over the long term.

ASTS +2.38 to 20.59, nice rebound from a low of 17.50 on Wednesday !

NXT +9.62 to 49.24, after a nice earnings surprise .... I picked up a starter position today. FSLR and ENPH are solar plays that look oversold and are on my watchlist. Fears of Trump policies are overblown, imho.

CIVI (51.93) here's some recent analyst commentary -

fly -

1/29 - Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear raised the firm's price target on Civitas Resources to $71 from $70 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Heading into Q4 results and FY25 outlooks, the firm is revising its estimates and assessing how its coverage is positioned heading into prints. Oil sentiment was sharply negative heading into the year, and while tighter sanctions on Russia and expectations for stricter stance on Iran with the Trump administration have driven upside, the market remains concerned with the spare capacity overhang and the long-term demand picture, Piper argues. On the gas front, weather has driven winter-end storage projections lower as LNG capacity adds are expected to ramp through the first half of 2026, while producers remain patient on activity additions despite strength in the gas curve.

1/22 - Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Civitas Resources to $70 from $64 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm, which marks its price deck for Q4 actuals and the latest forward strip, notes that its 2025 EBITDA estimates are moving 11% higher on average for the North American exploration and production group. The firm retains its preference for gas over oil and within oil prefers Majors and E&Ps with positive rate of change, the analyst added in a Q4 preview note.

1/13 - Truist lowered the firm's price target on Civitas Resources to $80 from $81 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note updating the firm's model with 2026 expectations. Truist sees sequentially higher estimated 2026 earnings and free cash flows based on minimally lower commodity prices, minimally higher production, flat costs, minimal asset degradation, and minimal to moderate operational efficiencies, adding that it sees commodity prices - oil and natural gas - remaining firmer this year than many investors currently expect.

1/3 - Civitas Resources CEO Chris Doyle and the leadership team look forward to turning the page to 2025 following a challenging 2024, KeyBanc tells investors in a research note. The firm believes concerns on the 2025 oil production outlook and Permian integration are overblown, and that concerns on the Colorado regulatory outlook and deleveraging are "explainable" and will not persist. KeyBanc has an Overweight rating and $84 price target on the shares.

NVDL - I just placed a test buy order and it was allowed .... maybe the restrictions are related to account size and/or level of risk tolerance ?

ASTS -2.37 to 17.77, the weakness is a mystery to me .... I added shares at 18.18 this morning and hedged with Apr $20 calls at 2.91 for a cost basis of 15.27. I like those hefty call premiums, but April is a long wait .... some savvy trading could yield quicker gains.