FEIM (14.06) reports Jan Q3 EPS of $0.37, excluding a big tax benefit. That's up sequentially from Q2 EPS of $0.29, pretax. Backlog is down from $81M to $73M sequentially, however that's still nearly a year of backlog at the current revenue run rate.

WMT sales are 59% grocery while Target is at 23% .... interesting, I had no idea that Walmart was so heavily into groceries !

NTCT (20.77) looks moderately attractive, but would have to get down near the 52wk low of $17 for me to buy. Jan Q3 was very strong but got a boost from orders pulled from Q4 into Q3. So Q4 estimates have come down accordingly.

PR -

“Our Q3 fiscal year 2025 revenue and earnings results exceeded our expectations with strong performance across both our Cybersecurity and Service Assurance product lines. These results include certain customer orders received in our Q3 that were anticipated to be received in our Q4, as customers leveraged their calendar year-end budgets. The contribution of these early orders enhanced our Q3 performance, providing greater visibility and reinforcing our confidence in achieving our full fiscal year 2025 financial objectives.

Looking ahead, as we enter the final quarter of our fiscal year 2025, we are narrowing our fiscal 2025 outlook ranges while maintaining the midpoints from previous guidance for revenue and non-GAAP net income per share. We remain focused on executing effectively as we position the Company for fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

TGT (107) versus WMT (85) .... why not diversify and buy some TGT instead of more WMT ?

TGT has a forward PE of just 12 versus WMT at 32. TGT yields around 4% versus WMT at 1%.

Walmart has been the winner over Target the past decade, but at current valuations TGT looks like the better buy with a 12 to 18 month time horizon.

SSK - you have under 8% cash as of last Friday, almost unheard of for the SSKMP portfolio. So right now you pretty much have to sell something to buy something ..... unless of course you dare go on margin ???

Yup, definitely feels like a "sell the rallies" market .... the S&P was up sharply to start the day, but it's just 11am and already it's in the red. Would have been a good idea to buy some SPXS when this morning's rally started to fade already at 9:45am !

TSLA +19 to 250, an impressive bounce from $210 after hours on Monday .... but I'm skeptical that this broader market rally is anything more than a bounce from oversold conditions and think it will continue to ratchet lower. The same fate could await TSLA, but good luck !

COHR +2.82 to 69.30, great timing on your buy at 61.54, a better than 12% gain ..... I presume you'll be taking some quick profits ?

TSLL +1.24 to 9.15, nice call on the TSLA bounce .... are you taking quick profits or holding on for bigger gains ?

Small cap O&G stocks have gotten crushed by the recent plunge in crude oil prices, now at $66/bbl, down from $78/bbl in mid January. I'm way under water in my CIVI position which is now at 4 year lows. Glad I got out of VTLE which has been battered.

My AR position, a pure play on NatGas, is holding up well thanks to a cold winter and high prices, around $4.30/mcf. But NG looks overvalued so I've been shorting the futures as a hedge. KOLD is another way to bet on falling NG prices.

40% of the S&P500 stocks are already in a bear market, down at least 20% from their highs .....

https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-dreaded-trump-bear-market-is-here-now-for-40-stocks/?utm_source=newsshowcase&utm_medium=gnews&utm_campaign=CDAqEAgAKgcICjDOm4YLMJD1gwMw2cbdAw&utm_content=rundown&gaa_at=g&gaa_n=AerBZYPTo42oVpjXRtX6DM4YoXQIXrPNUx7_PPUyUz6kQCcDobsLx7yF2l5RVtpk81JJ5CGfy97u3DNBHb-wKtf3hB5JTsR6mQ%3D%3D&gaa_ts=67d15ec7&gaa_sig=yy4AC1phopzzAnDzk39qFqyFVKQI256eWoGPxMiawGZ_kpy-D4Kaz_VIiNQ3i7Lr7utQ21DXxJVgN6SH9FNrRA%3D%3D

KSS +.05 to 9.20 in pre-market .... looks like you already got a nice 5% bounce if you bought at the $8.75 bottom yesterday. Kohl's looks likes it's in a downward spiral given the awful guidance and that would be aggravated if a recession is looming. Covered call premiums are fairly good, but taking quick 5% profits might be the better choice. Good luck.

btw, the one bright spot is tangible book value of around $34, but many of their strip mall properties are probably worth less than book value and they do also have lots of debt.

briefing -

Kohl's beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line, comparable sales decreased 6.7%; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus (12.05 -0.16) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.95 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.72; revenues fell 9.4% year/year to $5.17 bln vs the $5.19 bln FactSet Consensus.
Comparable sales decreased 6.7%.
Inventory was $2.9 billion, an increase of 2% year-over-year.
Co issues downside guidance for FY26, sees EPS of $0.10-$0.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.18 FactSet Consensus; sees FY26 revs of $14.32-$14.63 bln vs. $15.45 bln FactSet Consensus. Sees comparable sales of a decrease of (4%) to a decrease of (6%).

PLAY will report Jan Q4 in a few weeks .... last year it was on 4/2. I think it will be a disappointing report but I could be wrong and some bad news is already priced in. Maybe it will rally despite an earnings miss as happened with DIN. Good luck.

S&P500 -83 to 5531, now down 10% from the high of 6147 set just a few weeks ago on 2/19.

We're now officially in a major correction.

PLAY -2.20 to 18.61 after a credit rating downgrade -

Dave & Buster's Entertainment shares fell after S&P Global Ratings
downgraded its outlook to negative from positive.
The stock fell 11% to $18.60, at one point touching a 52-week low of $18.26.
Shares have lost about 70% of their value over the past year.
S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday that it lowered its outlook for the Dallas
dining-and-entertainment venue operator due to broader pressure on
discretionary spending, as well as uncertainty that planned store openings
and renovations will improve traffic and stabilize same-store sales.
The ratings agency said household spending is tight, particularly among
lower-income customers. Dave & Buster's offers a highly discretionary
service that faces competition from both restaurants and entertainment
venues, S&P said.
Dave & Buster's has already reported seven straight quarters of same-store
sales declines, the ratings agency noted. S&P expects a base case in which
Dave & Buster's same-store sales growth improves but is still negative.

TSLA +7 to 229, getting a modest bounce after the brutal selloff from the December high of $488. Even so the stock is still up sharply from last April's low of $138. It's a very volatile and momentum driven stock. Tough to call a short term bottom.

Beware, in about 3 weeks the company will be reporting Q1 sales numbers which could be down y/y given plunging sales in Europe and China. Maybe it's already priced in, but maybe not ?

TSLL, TSLS

Delta reported weaker demand from travelers and slashed its Q1 earnings forecast -

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/delta-air-lines-cuts-forecast-softer-demand.html

DAL, UAL, AAL

Recession fears rattle markets -

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/us-stocks-underperform-trade-war-9c68599d?st=6naRCM&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

UAL, DAL

Magnificent 7 now down a whopping 25% on average from recent highs -

 
 LOSS FROM RECENT HIGH 
  
 TKR     LOSS      Cur Pr    High Pr   Date of High 
  
 TSLA     -55%      222.15    488.54    12/18 
 NVDA     -30%      106.98    153.13    01/07 
 GOOG     -20%      167.81    208.7     02/04 
 AMZN     -20%      194.54    242.52    02/04 
 META     -19%      597.99    740.91    02/14 
 MSFT     -19%      380.16    468.35    07/05 
 AAPL     -13%      227.48    260.1     12/26 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            -25%
                            

Weakening airline demand may be an early harbinger of a looming recession.

UAL, AAL, DAL

DXYZ -3.16 to 29.17, getting hit hard since the December high near $80 ... on the other hand it's still way up from the November low of around $11 .... I'll definitely be buying some shares if it gets back down to $11, but not interested now at $29 as it's just another falling knife.

CVS is by far the leading gainer in the S&P500 this year ..... I think you are wise to take profits and move the proceeds into some of the beaten down favorites.

That's the risk with the high fliers .... they can correct very sharply. Even NVDA is down over 30% from the highs and is threatening to go under $100. TSLA is already down well over 50% from the December highs. Yikes.

NOA -1.01 to 15.90, making new 52wk lows, sure has gotten cheap if they can meet analyst estimates for EPS of $2.90 this year. They report Q4 results next Wednesday 3/19 after the bell. This is the second time they've pushed out the earnings release by a week.

PR -

As disclosed in the previous communication on March 3, 2025, the Company was required to reschedule the release to allow more time to complete the year-end reporting processes within its Heavy Equipment - Australia segment. Incremental verification of parts and supply inventories is necessary due to first-year SOX reporting requirements, all within this segment which was previously a privately held entity and acquired by the Company on October 1, 2023.

Commencing on Wednesday, March 5, 2025, the impacts of Cyclone Alfred in the region have been stormwater flooding, power outages, public service disruption, road closures and restrictions on domestic travel. These unforeseen impacts have substantially increased the time and effort required to travel to and access mine sites in the region to verify certain parts and supply inventories. In addition, key administrative and audit staff were required to shelter in place. For clarity, the cyclone has not impacted routine operations at the mine sites in the region. We expect the impacts to fully subside by Friday, March 14, 2024.

JVA -3.21 to 6.36, would have made a great short near $10 on Friday ! The momentum players are bailing out en masse.

APP -21 to 249, down 53% from a high of 525 a mere 4 weeks ago. It's starting to look reasonably priced at 32x EPS estimates for 2025 and just 25x 2026 estimates. I picked up a few shares this morning at 246 and sold the March 2026 $250 covered calls for $76. Cost basis is $170 with the potential for a 47% gain a year from now which would also qualify for the long term capital gains rate.

S&P500 -105 to 5664, high yield stocks have been acting very well during this market correction. WU, AES and OGN are up an average of nearly 3% today and as much as 10% over the past 3 days ! Among the few bright spots in my portfolio.

NVDA - damn good question. I think those gross margins will have to come down due to competition, but your guess is as good as mine.

MCB (55.83) looks cheap, but it has been even cheaper. Last April it was trading at around $34 with FY24 EPS estimates of $6.10, so a forward PE of merely 5.6. Now the FY25 estimates are for $7.23, so a forward PE of 7.7.

Going way back to the regional banking crisis 2 years ago it briefly traded down to $14 with a forward PE of 2, crazy cheap because of the panic !

Did you also like it a year ago ? Two years ago ? Or was it not on your radar back then ?

KINS spike down to $13.30 spanned just 1 minute, but volume was a hefty 91k. It would be interesting to see the time and sales for that minute. Seems like somebody dumped a bunch of shares and maybe accidently set the wrong limit price ???

NVDA down to $109 and now trading at a relatively modest 24x forward EPS estimates .... is anyone interested ? Or is it going under $100 before a rebound ?

UUU - but if they change the record date, then all shares might have to be re-voted, unless they are legally allowed to compare ownership on the respective record dates and keep the votes for shares that didn't change ownership.

UUU - might be a good sign that they've rescheduled the meeting for so soon .... maybe they came very close to a 2/3 majority ? Unfortunately they're not disclosing the tally.

I decided to unload my shares today .... maybe Ault bought them as you suggest, buying shares on the cheap with the intent of ultimately accepting the offer.

I hope the deal gets approved for those still holding. Good luck !

WBA (10.60) taken private at $11.45 per share -

https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/walgreens-sycamore-partners-deal-private-company-0538214e?st=xANSLj&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

DIN - I wasn't enthusiastic about the earnings either which is why I doubled down on covered calls at $25 strike, so hopefully all my shares will get called at that price.

DIN +1.29 to 25.56, bucking the sharp market selloff and now up 9% from where it closed before the big earnings missed .... goes to show that it was already fully priced in and then some ....

UUU - ok, thanks, 67% makes it challenging given that plenty of shareholders don't vote, some of whom owned the shares before the record date, but not anymore, so they have no vested interest. Maybe Ault wants to crash to stock to buy shares on the cheap and become the majority owner ?

UUU - he's only got 19.8% of the shares .... how can he block the deal ? And why would he ? Just a 50%+ majority is required as far as I know.

JVA +.35 to 7.74, it will be very interesting to the Jan Q1 report and the stock action both before and after. Last year they reported on 3/17. Right now the stock is a momentum play. Maybe it hits $10 before the report ???

I own 7 of those 78 stocks -

COLL, AMPH, CMRE, FOR, KBH, DIN and SBH.

I also have numerous watchlists with loads of stocks including several that SSK recently purchased.