The S&P500 closed near the lows on Friday at 5074 .... I'd guess it drops to 5000 Monday morning, then rallies to close at 5100 .... however I think it will be a "dead cat bounce" and that we close the week at 4900. Just a guess of course and I could be completely wrong. In any case it will be a very interesting week ahead .....

We'll get the first indication this evening at 6pm when the S&P futures start trading, followed by the 24 hour stocks at 8pm.

Does anyone else want to hazard a guess as to what the S&P does tomorrow and for the coming week ???

SSK - the most interesting stat of all is that you have under 1% cash despite all the uncertainty regarding the tariffs and their impact on the economy ! It's like a big economic experiment which nobody knows for sure how it will turn out. Typically you're very conservative with a high cash position even during a bull market. But it now looks like we're entering a potentially prolonged bear market, yet you're over 99% invested. I guess you're taking a long term view.

I'm not a market timer so I'll be riding out this market downturn, however long it takes .... currently around 15% in cash.

TGT bounced off new 52wk lows this morning, maybe on bargain hunting. It's way off its 52wk high. WMT on the other hand is down around 5% today, because it's not nearly as depressed as TGT. There's no bargain hunting in WMT because it's not a bargain. jmho

Homebuilders having a banner day with most up around 5% thanks to falling mortgage rates.

BZH, CCS, MHO, TOL

FL (Footlocker) down around 65% from its 52wk high ..... most of their sneakers are imported from China. DBI another shoe retailer has been hit even harder. Eventually they could make great long term buys, but they may be heading even lower in the short term. Sneaker soles are guaranteed to wear out !

HALO -2.33 to 59.59, sold most of my sizable position this morning in order to raise my cash position which is only around 15%. I still like the stock, but it's up sharply from the November lows and down just 10% from all time highs. I might buy back lower if the opportunity arises.

Thanks to abh3vt for bringing this stock to the board way back in November 2023.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173161452

Russell 2000 is now in a bear market, down 23% from the November high .....

 
 TKR     LOSS      Cur Pr    High Pr   Date of High 
  
 $DJT     -24%      13621.34  17845.72  11/25 
 $RUMIC   -24%      662.68    876.92    12/09 
 $RUT     -23%      1910.55   2466.49   11/25 
 $SML     -23%      1206.84   1559.69   11/25 
 $NYFANG  -22%      10997.46  14053.74  02/14 
 $COMP    -18%      16550.61  20204.58  12/16 
 $MID     -18%      2783.05   3414.74   11/25 
 $RLG     -17%      3486.96   4219.84   12/16 
 $NDX     -17%      18521.48  22222.61  02/19 
 $SPX     -12%      5396.52   6147.43   02/19 
 $SPXEW   -11%      6754.17   7612.31   11/29 
 $DJI     -10%      40545.93  45073.63  12/04 
 $RLV     -9%       1785.82   1968.31   11/29 
 $DJU     -6%       1026.49   1086.52   11/27
                            

SSK - considering all your buys today, evidently you feel there's not much further downside to this market plunge ? It looks as though you've put most of your 21% cash position (as of last Friday) to work in a single day ? Or do you still have a significant cash position in SSKMP ?

S&P500 Futures plunge from up 100 to down 100 in the past 20 minutes. Yikes !

S&P500 -66 to 5514, after hitting a low of 5488 which breached the March 13th low of 5504 .... might be a double bottom, but I think we're heading lower ....

GTEC -.43 to 1.74 after hitting 2.58 yesterday .... would have made a nice short if you could find shares. Currently none available at IB despite a borrow rate of 237%.

Glad I got out yesterday ! My GTC orders are waiting to buy back in the $1.40's and lower .....

PSIX is an AI datacenter play and a very popular stock on this board .... do a search and you'll get loads of hits. Profits are soaring. They just reported EPS of $1.01 for Q4. Of course it's possible that was peak earnings ....

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/20043994-power-solutions-international-announces-record-fourth-quarter-and-record-full-year-2024

PSIX -3.60 to 25.65, it's on my watchlist for potential purchase, but the way it's dropping it might be under $20 by late next week .....

ARDT -.03 to 13.13, I joined you with a small starter position. The hospital business should be fairly immune to the economy and tariffs. This was a July 2024 IPO priced at $16 and looks oversold at an 18% discount to what investors paid last summer.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4125575-hospital-operator-ardent-health-raises-192m-via-downsized-ipo

ADFJF (DRX.TO) -.21 to 4.94, making new 52wk lows. Sure looks very cheap based on EPS of US$0.38 for Oct Q3 and $1.07 for 9 months. They should be reporting Jan Q4 in about 2 weeks. Last year they reported on 4/11. Both the declining backlog and tariffs are the big concerns, but I'm tempted to add shares at this price level. Lots of bad news is already priced in.

JVA -.08 to 3.48, the main issue against buying at this price imho, is that these earnings are not sustainable. Over the past 7 years they've had several years with sizable losses and their overall average EPS has been around NIL. A year ago the stock was around $1.50.

High coffee prices won't last forever. Brazil had an unusually poor harvest due to weather and that probably won't repeat next year. Prices are already coming down, now at $3.78/lb, having peaked at $4.29 about 6 weeks ago.

JVA hedging is intended to diminish commodity price risk, which is a good thing. The problem is that they've shot themselves in the foot periodically in the past, locking in high coffee bean purchase prices and then being forced to sell coffee products at lower prices when prices dropped. So it's important to evaluate their history of hedging gains and losses. In recent years they've done less hedging according to the recent 10K, evidently having concluded that they're no good at predicting future coffee bean prices.

GTEC +.80 to 2.11, the rally is fading, not surprisingly. I sold most of my position in pre-market and the rest after the open .... I'll be looking to buy back shares in the $1.40's and lower, which could already happen within a few weeks, based on the trading history. Today's huge spike up on immense volume will leave plenty of bag holders who'll eventually be bailing out with a loss. jmho

GTEC +1.01 to 2.32 after hours on huge volume of 10M after posting a big y/y turnaround to profitability primarily due to cutting expenses. FY23 was impacted by some big charges. It will be interesting to see what the stock does tomorrow. This one has a history of big spikes. I own a small position, having traded it for years, although it's an overall loser for me. Beware, this is a China microcap, but they do some business in the US, manufacturing and selling heavy duty EV equipment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/greenland-technologies-fiscal-full-2024-200500283.html

Maybe Trump's company, DJT, will be interested in acquiring Greenland Technologies due to the name ???

CRMD -3.38 to 7.39 after reporting strong Q4 results but disappointing revenue guidance -

briefing -

Cormedix beats by $0.09, beats on revs (10.77 ) :
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.09 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 29900.0% year/year to $30 mln vs the $27.28 mln FactSet Consensus.
CorMedix is announcing preliminary net revenue guidance for first half of 2025 of $50 -- $60 million, based on the run rate of current purchasing customers, with more than $33 million expected in first quarter. In addition, the Company reiterates its previously announced cash operating expense guidance for 2025 of $72 -- $78 million.

AR +.20 to 41.41, trimmed my position substantially this morning .... the stock is up nearly 25% in the past 2 weeks, while NG prices have fallen around 10%. Seems like the stock is due for a pullback.

TSLA -3 to 275, a nice bounce from the low of $210 just two weeks ago .... in about a week they'll release their Q1 sales numbers which will be weak, but maybe not as bad as feared ? It will be interesting to see the numbers and how the stock reacts.

Here's a free Bloomberg article -

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/is-tesla-in-trouble-why-tsla-stock-and-sales-are-falling?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc0MjkxMTA5MywiZXhwIjoxNzQzNTE1ODkzLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTU09TWENUMEcxS1cwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiI0MDZEMkY0Njc2Q0Q0QUREODU4N0E5MDY0QjExNzJBMyJ9.dMi1OyS2rdyaJffahpAGVtUdp9AZOd_mw8zlMG80IAw

MRP +.05 to 24.72, is worth a look .... it's a "land banking" REIT and recent LEN spinoff (Lennar is the nation's 2nd largest homebuilder)

briefing -

3/18 - Millrose Properties provides guidance for Q2, announces inaugural dividend (22.01 +0.26) :
Co guides to Q2 EPS of $0.65-0.68. Looking ahead, co anticipates achieving quarterly EPS run rate of $0.67-0.69 by year-end 2025.
Co also announces a major milestone: its inaugural dividend of $0.38 per share. This "stub" dividend covers the period from Millrose's spin-off from Lennar (LEN) on February 7, 2025 through March 31, 2025, and represents a pro-rated portion of what would equate to $0.65/sh on a normalized quarterly basis.
Co also reports strong progress on transactions outside of the Lennar Master Program Agreement, closing approximately $250 mln in such transactions since its spin-off, at yields exceeding 11%. Given the strong reception for its capital, and the momentum in signing up new third-party clients, Millrose expects to close at least an additional $100 mln of such transactions within the next 30 days and anticipates delivering at least $1 bln in such transactions for full-year 2025.
To support this accelerated growth, Millrose is actively working with its financial advisors to secure additional financing, ensuring ample capital to fund its expanding transaction pipeline.

3/17 - Millrose Properties provides guidance for Q2, announces inaugural dividend (22.01 +0.26) :
Co guides to Q2 EPS of $0.65-0.68. Looking ahead, co anticipates achieving quarterly EPS run rate of $0.67-0.69 by year-end 2025.
Co also announces a major milestone: its inaugural dividend of $0.38 per share. This "stub" dividend covers the period from Millrose's spin-off from Lennar (LEN) on February 7, 2025 through March 31, 2025, and represents a pro-rated portion of what would equate to $0.65/sh on a normalized quarterly basis.
Co also reports strong progress on transactions outside of the Lennar Master Program Agreement, closing approximately $250 mln in such transactions since its spin-off, at yields exceeding 11%. Given the strong reception for its capital, and the momentum in signing up new third-party clients, Millrose expects to close at least an additional $100 mln of such transactions within the next 30 days and anticipates delivering at least $1 bln in such transactions for full-year 2025.
To support this accelerated growth, Millrose is actively working with its financial advisors to secure additional financing, ensuring ample capital to fund its expanding transaction pipeline.

JVA +.29 to 4.63, earnings are very unpredictable given all their hedging and lack of disclosure of what their hedging positions are. Last year's EPS of $0.39 includes roughly $0.21 of hedging gains, but more often historically they've had hedging losses.

NOA -.59 to 16.81, after hitting a low of 15.09 .... I added a bunch of shares at an avg price of $16.10 ....

ASO 10K commentary on tariffs and China ....

FY24 10K -

General trade tensions between the United States and China began escalating in 2018, with the Trump administration ultimately imposing multiple rounds of tariffs on imports from China, where we and many of our vendors source commodities. As a result, we have experienced rising inventory costs on private label brand products we directly source from China, as well as national brand products from China that we source through our vendors. These higher inventory costs have resulted in higher prices and/or lower margins, thus resulting in a negative impact to sales and/or gross margin. Additionally, these tariffs have resulted in and could result in further retaliatory tariff actions by China and could ultimately result in further tariffs on merchandise that we, and many of our vendors, import from China. These tariffs have had an adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In response, we have sought alternative suppliers or vendors, raised prices, and made changes to our operations. The continuation of this situation could have further adverse effects on our sales and profitability, results of operations and financial condition. Since the date of our last annual report, no significant modifications have been enacted relative to the escalated tariffs which impact our business.

ASO - sneakers and lots of sports related equipment are produced in China, but hopefully they have shifted towards other countries. I don't know the specifics for ASO.

ASO (47.57) reports solid Jan Q4 earnings, but issues FY26 guidance a bit below estimates -

briefing -

Academy Sports + Outdoors beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line (47.57 ) :
Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $1.96 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.13 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.83; revenues fell 6.6% year/year to $1.68 bln vs the $1.68 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY26, sees EPS of $5.75-6.20, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $6.45 FactSet Consensus; sees FY26 revs of 6.09-6.27 bln vs. $6.24 bln FactSet Consensus.
The company expects the first quarter to be the most challenging from a sales and earnings per share prospective as they plan to open five stores and transition to the new Jordan floor set. They further expect their internal initiatives to start to positively impact results beginning in the second quarter. Additionally, they expect the back half of the year to be stronger than the first half as their internal initiatives take hold.

NOA (17.40) results and guidance look decent when considering the depressed stock price, down 26% from $23.37 a year ago. Keep in mind that the reported figures are in Canadian dollars, so multiply by 0.70 to convert to US dollars.

So based on FY25 adj EPS guidance of C$3.85 midpoint (equals US$2.70), the forward PE is a modest 6.4.

If the stock sells off tomorrow, I'll be adding shares.

GAP +.90 to 20.23, I joined you in GAP today .... bought the stock at 20.21 and sold the June $21 covered calls for $1.65. Cost basis is $18.56 with a 13% gain if I get assigned on the calls.

NOA +.53 to 17.48, ahead of earnings after the bell followed by a conf call at 9am tomorrow. The stock remains depressed but has at least rebounded from the low of $15.62 set a week ago .... at this price level some bad news has already been priced in.

TSLA ups and downs since 12/31/20 -

 
 Trend Start  Price         Trend End     Price      Gain/Loss %   Days in Trend 
  
 12/31/20      230.37        01/25/21      300.13         30.3%        16 
 01/25/21      300.13        02/23/21      206.33        -31.3%        21 
 03/04/21      200           02/24/21      248.33         24.2%        7 
 02/24/21      248.33        03/05/21      179.83        -27.6%        8 
 03/05/21      179.83        04/14/21      260.26         44.7%        28 
 04/14/21      260.26        05/19/21      182.33        -29.9%        26 
 05/19/21      182.33        11/04/21      414.5          127.3%       119 
 11/04/21      414.5         11/15/21      326.2         -21.3%        8 
 11/15/21      326.2         11/22/21      400.65         22.8%        6 
 11/22/21      400.65        12/21/21      295.37        -26.3%        21 
 12/21/21      295.37        01/04/22      402.67         36.3%        10 
 01/04/22      402.67        02/24/22      233.33        -42.1%        36 
 02/24/22      233.33        04/05/22      384.29         64.7%        29 
 04/05/22      384.29        05/24/22      206.86        -46.2%        35 
 05/24/22      206.86        06/02/22      264.21         27.7%        7 
 06/02/22      264.21        06/16/22      208.69        -21%          11 
 06/16/22      208.69        08/16/22      314.67         50.8%        42 
 08/16/22      314.67        01/06/23      101.81        -67.6%        100 
 01/06/23      101.81        02/16/23      217.65         113.8%       29 
 02/16/23      217.65        03/13/23      163.91        -24.7%        17 
 03/13/23      163.91        03/31/23      207.79         26.8%        15 
 03/31/23      207.79        04/27/23      152.37        -26.7%        19 
 04/27/23      152.37        07/19/23      299.29         96.4%        57 
 07/19/23      299.29        08/18/23      212.36        -29%          23 
 08/18/23      212.36        09/15/23      278.98         31.4%        20 
 09/15/23      278.98        10/31/23      194.07        -30.4%        33 
 10/31/23      194.07        12/28/23      265.13         36.6%        41 
 12/28/23      265.13        04/22/24      138.8         -47.6%        79 
 04/22/24      138.8         07/11/24      271            95.2%        56 
 07/11/24      271           08/05/24      182           -32.8%        18 
 08/05/24      182           12/18/24      488.54         168.4%       96 
 12/18/24      488.54        03/11/25      217.02        -55.6%        55
                            

TSLA stock was up over 700% in 2020, a spectacular single year gain, but since the start of 2021 it has been a poor performer relative to the S&P500. Even so, for those who timed it right, there were certainly plenty of nice trading opportunities, both long and short, over the past 4 years.

 
 Performance since 12/31/20 - 
  
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 $SPX     49%        5614.66      3756.07 
 TSLA     -4%        225.31       235.22
                            

NVDA GTC conference is all week with the keynote by CEO Jensen Huang today .... is the 20th important for quantum stocks ?

https://www.nvidia.com/gtc/

Have you considered trading a few stocks on the short side by opening and closing short positions, targeting quick profits ? We're in a downward trending market, so hedging long positions with a few small short positions could be effective.

SOXS, SPXS, TSLS, NVDS, TSLA, NVDA

TSLA -13 to 223, after Chinese competitor BYD announces a fast charger that adds 250 miles of charge in a mere 5 minutes ! Essentially as fast as tanking up with gas and much better that Tesla.

TSLA has been a good trader recently, but one has to take quick profits, which hopefully you did.

https://electrek.co/2025/03/17/byd-confirms-1000v-super-e-platform-fast-charging-400km-5-minutes/

DXYZ +5.69 to 38.99, a huge 55% gain from $25.19 just last Tuesday .... timing is everything !

KINS -1.73 to 14.90, I picked up some shares at $15 and sold the July $15 covered calls for $2.50 .... a cost basis of $12.5 on the stock with upside of 20% if I get assigned on the calls.

JVA -.84 to 4.69, yikes, this has been an epic collapse since hitting $9.93 a week ago ! I wonder when they'll report earnings ? The chart looks like there's decent technical support in the mid to upper $3's and at this rate it will soon be there.

Walmart merchandise is now 60% from China, down from 80% in 2018 ..... India has become a significant supplier as well. So they've shifted some merchandise to India. Cheap labor is what they want. I think they also increasingly import from Vietnam and Bangladesh.

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/walmart-shifts-india-china-cheaper-imports-2023-11-29/

WMT, TGT