Congrats to ECOBLOT and thanks as usual to SSKILLZ1 for running the contest.

YTD Index Returns -

 
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 $RUMIC   -15%      694.08    820.06 
 $DJT     -15%      13497.05  15895.75 
 $SML     -13%      1219.01   1408.17 
 $RUT     -12%      1957.62   2230.16 
 $COMP    -9%       17382.94  19310.79 
 $MID     -9%       2831.67   3120.94 
 $RLG     -9%       3674.66   4042.28 
 $NDX     -7%       19432.56  21012.17 
 $SPX     -6%       5525.21   5881.63 
 $NYFANG  -6%       12329.06  13120.21 
 $DJI     -5%       40113.5   42544.22 
 $SPXEW   -4%       6787.57   7100.83 
 $RLV     -2%       1775.73   1823.95 
 $W5KMICRO2%        15777.66  15415.18 
 $DJU     3%        1021.27   982.74 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            -7%
                            

WU - I'd be less interested were it not for the hefty covered call premiums .... even if the stock went down 15% over the coming year, which I consider unlikely, I'd still have a nice profit when accounting for the dividends and call premiums.

WU +.04 to 10.15, rebounding nicely from the morning low of 9.61. I added shares this morning at $9.87 and wrote the Aug $10 covered calls at $0.56 for a cost basis of $9.31. The over 9% dividend yield coupled with hefty covered call premiums and very low 5.6 forward PE makes it attractive to me, despite the ongoing long term gradual business decline.

They met estimates and maintained guidance, albeit several analysts lowered price targets.

briefing -

Western Union reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance (10.13 +0.13) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.41; revenues fell 6.2% year/year to $983.6 mln vs the $994.65 mln FactSet Consensus.
Co reaffirms guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $1.75 to $1.85, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.78 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 revs of $4.115 bln to $4.215 bln vs. $4.14 bln FactSet Consensus.

fly -

09:00 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $10.50 from $11 at UBS
UBS analyst Timothy Chiodo lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $10.50 from $11 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
08:47 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at Susquehanna
Susquehanna analyst James Friedman lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm noted the company's improved Branded Digital transactions growth rising 14% while total Consumer Money Transfer adjusted revenue ex-Iraq fell -2%. Key themes from the quarter include improvement in Europe and durable digital transaction growth, offset by weakness in North America which remains unpredictable due to geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
08:46 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at BMO Capital
BMO Capital lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares after its in-line Q1 results. The stock remains a show-me story, and BMO believes investors should wait for more evidence of durable revenue growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
08:00 EDT WU
Monness Crespi cuts Western Union to Sell with headwinds 'increasingly apparent'
As previously reported, Monness Crespi analyst Gus Gala downgraded Western Union to Sell from Neutral with a $7.50 price target. Revenue came in below consensus as weakness in the North America CMT segment, particularly around retail and, to a lesser extent, slower consumer services, dragged, the analyst tells investors. Looking to calendar year 2025, reiterated guidance that assumes continued growth in digital, stable retail, and double-digit consumer services growth is "going to be challenging" considering the firm's concerns around retention in the digital channel and the company's commentary around pricing plans and a playbook similar to EU for the retail fleet, the analyst tells investors.
07:32 EDT WU
Western Union downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Monness Crespi
Monness Crespi analyst Gus Gala downgraded Western Union to Sell from Neutral with a $7.50 price target.
06:35 EDT WU
Western Union price target lowered to $11 from $12 at Keefe Bruyette
Keefe Bruyette lowered the firm's price target on Western Union to $11 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

S&P500 +122 to 5281 after positive news about progress on tariffs -

briefing -

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Trump has received 18 trade proposals from various countries; notes India announcement as a positive; says things are moving in the right direction on China; says doesn't have anything to read out about conversations between President Trump and China President Xi

HTZ +.80 to 8.63, Hertz has more than doubled since Ackman announced a stake a week ago, despite ongoing big losses for the rental car company. I started a small short position this morning and will be trading it on the short side.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/hertz-share-soar-after-ackman-takes-big-stake-8a8227ba?st=QmYd8A&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

SPXS +.61 to 8.34, just sold my last block of shares at 8.31 and have several GTC bids placed at lower prices .... nice profits for me so far thanks to the market volatility.

SPX

GPN +.08 to 69.54, here's some analyst commentary on the recent acquisition -

fly -

4/21 - Global Payments price target lowered to $92 from $135 at Citi
Citi analyst Andrew Schmidt lowered the firm's price target on Global Payments to $92 from $135 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Investors are worried about the Worldpay integration and terminal growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citi sees Global Payments' risk/reward as biased to the upside post Thursday's selloff but acknowledges that a recovery can take time.
07:39 EDT GPN
Global Payments price target lowered to $100 from $145 at Baird
Baird lowered the firm's price target on Global Payments to $100 from $145 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm upated its model upon reviewing the company's market position following its Worldpay acquisition.
06:28 EDT GPN
Global Payments price target lowered to $77 from $105 at Wells Fargo
Wells Fargo analyst Andrew Bauch lowered the firm's price target on Global Payments (GPN) to $77 from $105 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Following Global Payments' announcement of a 3-way mega deal with FIS (FIS)/GTCR, shares were under significant pressure as bull/bear debates ensued, the firm notes. Evidently, the bears won the round as many questioned economics, future execution potential, and long-term growth. While the initial stock reaction appears overblown, more questions than answers were received, Wells argues.
06:17 EDT GPN
Worldpay deal raises questions for Global Payments, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan says the three-way transaction that includes GTCR and FIS (FIS) selling Worldpay at a value of $24.25B to Global Payments (GPN), and Global Payments selling Issuer Solution for $13.5B to FIS, is "unsurprising and makes strategic sense." However, the timing is earlier than expected and raises questions for Global Payments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. JPMorgan believes the deal will consume a lot of management energy at a time when competition is investing heavily in product innovation, "compounding concerns" that Global Payments "is being left behind on the product side." The firm maintains a Neutral rating on Global Payments and Overweight rating on FIS.

Thanks for those detailed updates. I added some GPN this morning. The selloff looks overdone. As with most of my purchases I wrote some covered calls, although in this case the premiums were less than I would have liked.

DHI +4.26 to 121.80, up nicely despite an earnings miss and guidance below consensus. Seems like investors were expecting worse. The entire homebuilder group is strong today. Might be a sign of the bottom or at least some bottom fishing.

MHO, CCS, BZH, TMHC

briefing -

D.R. Horton misses by $0.05, misses on revs; guides FY25 revs below consensus (117.54 ) :
Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $2.58 per share, $0.05 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $2.63; revenues fell 15.1% year/year to $7.73 bln vs the $8.03 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $33.3-34.8 bln vs. $35.64 bln FactSet Consensus.
Based on the Company's results for the first half of the fiscal 2025 and current market conditions, D.R. Horton is updating its guidance for fiscal 2025 as follows:
Homes closed by homebuilding operations of 85,000 homes to 87,000 homes
Consolidated cash flow provided by operations of greater than $3.0 billion
Share repurchases of approximately $4.0 billion
The Company is reiterating its fiscal 2025 guidance as follows:
Income tax rate of approximately 24.0%
Dividend payments of approximately $500 million

D.R. Horton issues downside Q3 revenue guidance, home sales gross margin of 21.0-21.5%; Also announced a new $5.0 bln share repurchase program (117.54 ) :
Co issues downside guidance, sees Q3 revenue guidance of $8.4-$8.9 bln vs. the $9.87 bln FactSet Consensus estimate. Sees homes closed by homebuilding operations of 22,000-22,500 and home sales gross margin of 21.0-21.5%.
Also announced a new $5.0 bln share repurchase program
Co expects incentive costs to increase further in Q3 compared to Q2 and its gross margin will likely be lower.
Prices were roughly flat sequentially and down 2% on yr/yr basis.
"Stick and brick" costs were flat qtr/qtr.
Construction cycle times improved by three weeks compared to a year ago, enabling company to turn inventory quicker.

GPN -11.38 to 72.72 after announcing a major acquisition. Evidently investors don't like the deal despite the reaffirmed FY25 guidance.

briefing -

Global Payments announces agreements to acquire Worldpay (FIS) and divest issuer solutions; provides Q1 guidance roughly in-line; reaffirms FY25 guidance (84.12 ) :
Co announced definitive agreements to divest its Issuer Solutions business to FIS for $13.5 billion and acquire Worldpay from GTCR and FIS for a net purchase price of $22.7 billion, or total value of $24.25 billion including $1.55 billion of anticipated tax assets. This reflects a 12.3x adjusted EBITDA multiple for Issuer Solutions and an 8.5x adjusted EBITDA multiple for Worldpay on a net basis inclusive of run-rate synergies.
Co issues guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $2.69 vs. $2.71 FactSet Consensus; sees Q1 (Mar) revs of $2.205 bln vs. $2.2 bln FactSet Consensus. Co reaffirms guidance for FY25 (Dec), sees EPS of $11.54-11.70 vs. $12.18 FactSet Consensus; sees FY25 (Dec) revs of $9.17-9.30 bln vs. $9.26 bln FactSet Consensus.
The proposed divestiture of Issuer Solutions and acquisition of Worldpay will occur simultaneously. The divestiture of Issuer Solutions to FIS will be executed for cash and FIS' stake in Worldpay. Global Payments will acquire the remaining stake in Worldpay from GTCR for a combination of cash and stock in Global Payments. The transaction is subject to customary cash, debt and working capital adjustments.
The cash consideration payable in Global Payments' acquisition of Worldpay will be financed with a combination of cash proceeds from the sale of Issuer Solutions and cash on the balance sheet and new debt raised. Global Payments has obtained committed bridge financing and plans to issue $7.7 billion of debt between signing and closing which will be used to replace the bridge commitment and refinance Worldpay's outstanding debt. GTCR will receive shares in Global Payments at a price of $97.00, representing approximately 15% of Global Payments' outstanding shares on a pro forma basis.
Leading Pure Play Commerce Solutions Provider: The transactions further simplify Global Payments' business, positioning the company as a leading pure play merchant solutions provider at scale with world class distribution channels serving many of the highest-growing areas in payments. Combined, Global Payments and Worldpay will provide cutting-edge solutions to more than 6 million customers across the merchant spectrum, while enabling 94 billion transactions and $3.7 trillion in payment volume annually.
Enhanced Financial Profile: The combined company is expected to have pro forma 2025 annual adjusted net revenue and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $12.5 billion and $6.5 billion, respectively, inclusive of run-rate expense synergies. Global Payments expects to retain its investment grade credit ratings at closing, and to reduce adjusted net leverage to 3.0x within 18 to 24 months.

PPSI - maybe it's time to try Webull. They don't seem to have such draconian restrictions on thinly traded stocks.

GERN (1.29) is by far the most posted stock on this board over the past 2 years because of Wade's fixation with it. Several times a week he would post what a bargain it was with a $10 buyout target. Of course nobody else liked it, yet his posts kept coming. Super annoying to put it mildly. Evidently he has no concept of board etiquite. Nobody else posts 100's of times about the same stock, let alone a loser like GERN. Only Wade would think that's acceptable.

GERN was wade's long time favorite which he pumped incessantly for the past 2 years. Maybe he can recoup some of his losses by participating in the class action lawsuits against the company ?

Other more recent disasters of his have been IART, SANA and COHR.

Memelstein was right .... shorting wade's favorite stocks would have been highly profitable.

Massive uncertainty -

Dan Ives, an analyst for Wedbush Securities, said in a note to investors on Sunday that “the mass confusion created by this constant news flow out of the White House is dizzying for the industry and investors and creating massive uncertainty and chaos for companies trying to plan their supply chain, inventory and demand.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/us/politics/trump-tariffs-china-chips-technology.html?unlocked_article_code=1._k4.k8sh.vje4nuxg1Z5Y&smid=url-share

Great news for AAPL stock and lends credence to the notion that these tariffs are all largely temporary -

https://www.wsj.com/tech/trump-exempts-smartphones-other-electronics-from-chinese-tariffs-dd8eb31f?st=DaHNXa&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

MSTR sure looks overvalued and could have further to fall given a market cap of $80B, but posting increasing losses every quarter.

SMST could be a winner, but I thought you didn't like shorting ?

SPXS -.42 to 7.37, I just doubled down on my small position and will be systematically trading it going forward .... I have a GTC sell order to sell 50% at 7.92 and a buy order to add 50% at 6.91 .... given all this volatility I think I'll get at least 1 execution next week.

GAP has a big advantage over many other clothing retailers in that they import less than 10% from China - so they could pick up market share when other retailers are forced to raise prices. In that respect the sky high 145% China tariffs are great news for GAP.

10K -

In fiscal 2024, less than 10 percent of our merchandise, by dollar value, was purchased from factories in China, and less than 1 percent of our merchandise, by dollar value, was purchased from factories in Mexico and Canada combined.

We purchase private label and non-private label merchandise from over 200 vendors. Our vendors have factories in about 30 countries. Our two largest vendors accounted for approximately 9 percent and 8 percent of the dollar amount of our total fiscal 2024 purchases. Of our merchandise purchased during fiscal 2024, substantially all purchases, by dollar value, were from factories outside North America. Approximately 27 percent of our fiscal 2024 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Vietnam. Approximately 19 percent of our fiscal 2024 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Indonesia. Product cost increases or events causing disruption of imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, or other foreign countries, including the imposition of additional import restrictions, tariffs, or taxes, or vendors temporarily closing or potentially failing due to political, financial, or regulatory issues, could have an adverse effect on our operations. Substantially all of our foreign purchases of merchandise are negotiated and paid for in U.S. dollars. For additional information on risks related to our merchandise vendors, see the below sections in Item 1A, Risk Factors, of this Form 10-K.

GAP has a big advantage over many other clothing retailers in that they import less than 10% from China -

10K -

We purchase private label and non-private label merchandise from over 200 vendors. Our vendors have factories in about 30 countries. Our two largest vendors accounted for approximately 9 percent and 8 percent of the dollar amount of our total fiscal 2024 purchases. Of our merchandise purchased during fiscal 2024, substantially all purchases, by dollar value, were from factories outside North America. Approximately 27 percent of our fiscal 2024 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Vietnam. Approximately 19 percent of our fiscal 2024 purchases, by dollar value, were from factories in Indonesia. Product cost increases or events causing disruption of imports from Vietnam, Indonesia, or other foreign countries, including the imposition of additional import restrictions, tariffs, or taxes, or vendors temporarily closing or potentially failing due to political, financial, or regulatory issues, could have an adverse effect on our operations. Substantially all of our foreign purchases of merchandise are negotiated and paid for in U.S. dollars. For additional information on risks related to our merchandise vendors, see the below sections in Item 1A, Risk Factors, of this Form 10-K.

In fiscal 2024, less than 10 percent of our merchandise, by dollar value, was purchased from factories in China, and less than 1 percent of our merchandise, by dollar value, was purchased from factories in Mexico and Canada combined.

ADFJF (3.85) probably has at least 1 or 2 rough quarters ahead with very bad y/y comps, but just 10 months ago this was a $14 stock. Seems oversold at $3.85 unless these Canadian tariffs are here to stay, which I think is unlikely. So I'll be accumulating on weakness with a 12 to 18 month time horizon in mind for a strong rebound in the stock price.

ADFJF -1.26 to 4.04, I'm surprised by the magnitude of the selloff and just added a few shares. At this price I think the stock is a speculative long term buy, despite lots of uncertainty related to the tariffs and economy.

https://adfgroup.com/en/documentation-center/press-release/?id=122744

S&P500 had it's biggest single day percentage gain since 2008 .... for the Nasdaq the biggest since 2001. Amazing !

S&P500 +474 to 5456, great call - I thought it was a longshot at best. A wise decision to make some sales. I think we'll be giving some of the gains back in the coming days. This volatility is great for trading. I may trim some positions tomorrow, depending on the action ....

SQQQ -16.94 to 36.03, only Wade would make such an reckless gamble .....

S&P500 +320 to 5303, market surging higher on tariff pause -

President Trump authorizes 90 day pause for other countries tariffs outside of China; says there will be a "substantially lowered "reciprocal tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately" (521.15 +24.61)

Truth Social Post -

"Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

SPXS (9.77) I'm still holding for now .... it's just a small hedge since I'm very net long overall. Therefore I'm hoping to lose money on SPXS, but I doubt that will happen.

WSJ - Heard on the Street - why treasury yields are stubbornly high -

Some investors are likely rotating out of bonds to buy the equity dip, or to go into cash. The recent fall in the U.S. dollar may indicate that foreigners in particular are pulling out, and there is also anticipation of new Treasury issuances this month.

The scariest possibility is that markets are becoming concerned about the government’s ability to refinance $37 trillion of public debt. The U.S. budget deficit is already above 6% of gross domestic product, and a recession would widen it further by lowering tax revenues and raising unemployment benefits.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-stock-market-is-in-chaos-why-are-treasury-yields-above-4-a34228ab?st=CibdNf&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

The 10 year treasury bond rate hit 4.49% this morning, up from a low of 3.84% just last Friday .... but roughly unchanged from 4.40% merely two weeks ago .... it may just be volatility as bondholders try to figure out what to do amidst all this uncertainty. If the 10 year rate climbs over 5% I'll be concerned, but for now I just see it as volatility.

Earnings season kicks off later this week with several big banks reporting. Delta Airlines reports tomorrow morning. It will be interesting to see what companies have to say about the impact of the tariffs on their guidance.

JPM, MS, WFC, DAL

SPXS (9.30) up 11% from when I bought a few hours ago .... working out quicker and better than I expected. Holding on so far, but wish it were a much larger position. I think we're in a "sell the rallies" market. I also sold some stocks and covered calls this morning including FOR, CMRE and AER.

SPXS (8.35) I just picked up a few shares of this 3x short S&P ETF .... I think this morning's rally will fade later this week, if not already by this afternoon. jmho

S&P500 +151 to 5213, a monster rally that I did not expect .... I might be trimming some positions in anticipation of another sharp drop. This volatility is great for savvy traders .... NVDA was $86 yesterday, now it's $104, a quick 21% gain !

NVDA currently $99 after hours, would have made a great trading buy in the mid $80's this morning or last night ! Wish I had picked up a few shares.

SSK - thanks for all the writeups on stocks you've been buying. I added to my positions in OGN and IART recently. Generally I've been writing covered calls against shares as I buy them. I've written more covered calls over the past 6 months than in the previous 2 to 3 years combined !

PANL (4.16) - I own a few shares, but a trade war would significantly diminish demand for shipping and cause rates to plunge. The dividend might not be safe.

White House says possible tariff pause is "fake news" ....

briefing -

White House tells CNBC that report that President Trump is considering 90 day tariff pause is "fake news"; says President Trump is "not backing off"

Market Rollercoaster -

Market Briefing: A wild tariff-related swing

It has been a fast-and-furious start for the stock market today with the S&P 500 swinging between a 4.7% loss at today's open to a gain of as much as 3.4% a short time ago.

The catalyst for this dramatic turn is a report that President Trump is considering a 90-day pause on the tariffs, except for China. Some news outlets are suggesting NEC Director Kevin Hassett is the source for this report, but that has been unsubstantiated. CNBC's Eamon Jevers is currently reporting that the White House is not confirming this idea of a pause on tariffs.

Stocks have pulled back from their intraday highs, with the S&P 500 (-1.0%) turning negative again.

RITM - I've also been adding shares on weakness .... while MSR's comprise a significant portion of their BV, they also hedge with interest rate futures. Furthermore, mortgage rates would have to drop a lot more to generate much refinancing since most mortgages are already locked in at much lower rates .... currently 30 year mortgage rates are around 6.6%.

Fortune -

A report from Redfin showed that as of the third quarter of 2024, 82.8% of homeowners with a mortgage had a rate below 6%. Many are essentially locked in with their existing home loans, unable or unwilling to move or refinance in the current environment.

Mortgage rates did drop a little toward the end of February, moving closer to 6.5% than had been seen in a long time. But rates have remained well above the pandemic-era lows, when some homeowners were able to get rates in the 2% or 3% ranges.

NVDA -7 to 86 in Sunday evening trading, an astounding drop of 44% from the January all time high of $153.

Maybe it's time to go bargain hunting in this Wall Street favorite ???