NOG 10K shows operating cash flow of $1.5B for 2025 versus interest expense of just $172M, so the debt is very manageable. Furthermore future cash flows will significantly benefit from the big rise in oil prices despite their hedging.

S&P500 +70 to 7514, I don't get this market euphoria .... at this rate the S&P will hit 8000 by late summer. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut, inflation and interest rates are on the rise and consumer discretionary spending is likely to decline. Hardly a positive backdrop for a raging bull market.

CRMD +.70 to 8.20, sales of their primary product DefenCath, 76% of Q1 revenues, are expected to taper off quickly, but evidently investors like the pipeline.

PR -

DefenCath continues to exceed expectations despite pending TDAPA expiration and demonstrates strong underlying utilization demand.

Google -

TDAPA stands for Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment. • TDAPA coverage usually is for two years. • Medicare will reimburse drugs that have applied for TDAPA and are still under that contract, the. average sale price of the drug plus the dispensing cost.

AAOI +38 to 226, keeps flying higher despite another quarterly loss, now up over 2000% in a bit over a year .... junk keeps flying higher while low PE value stocks keep getting cheaper. Ugh.

NOG -.69 to 23.18, seems way too cheap. Oil could be $110/bbl within a few weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut which seems likely given how far apart the US and Iran are on a peace treaty.

RITM - nice trading in this one .... I didn't think it would fall back into the low $9's .... it's amazing how the SOX keeps hitting record highs while value stocks are in the doghouse !

STRL (838) regretably I sold my shares at $130 roughly a year ago on a covered call assignment .... never would have guess it would at $800+ just a year later !

YTD Index returns .... check out the SOX -

 
 TKR    % Change   Cur Price   Start Price 
  
 $SOX     65%        11717.26     7083.13 
 $RUMIC   17%        1169.32      995.62 
 $NDX     15%        29064.8      25249.85 
 $RUT     15%        2842.83      2481.91 
 $DJT     14%        19854.88     17357.19 
 $SML     13%        1651.2       1467.76 
 $COMP    12%        26088.2      23241.99 
 $RLV     11%        2302.33      2071.57 
 $MID     11%        3663.37      3305.14 
 $NDXE    10%        9555.24      8649.96 
 $NYFANG  9%         17198.98     15810.7 
 $SPX     8%         7400.96      6845.5 
 $SPXEW   6%         8250.11      7763.92 
 $DJU     5%         1125.75      1068.07 
 MAGS     5%         69.12        65.96 
 $RLG     4%         4963.59      4764.53 
 $DJI     4%         49760.56     48063.29 
  
 AVERAGE RETURN =            13%
                            

The SOXX index was up a stunning 72% YTD so it's no surprise to see some profit taking, lol

NVDA, AMD, MU

CNXC -1.02 to 22.22, a new all time low. The good news is that the 6M shares filed for sale were all immediately sold in a negotiated transaction on 4/29 at $22.25, a 7% discount to the closing price that day of $23.82, but it's unclear who the buyer was .... the bad news is that the stock is continuing to act very poorly.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1179313/000119312526201465/xslF345X06/ownership.xml

SOFI +.33 to 16.43 on heavy volume of 78M .... thanks for sharing your insights - here's the analyst reaction to the Q1 report -

fly - 4/30

SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $25 from $33 at Needham
Needham analyst Kyle Peterson lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $25 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's revenue topped estimates but shares sold off due to softer-than-expected tech product revenue as one of its large customers completed a transition away at the end of FY25, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The transition was previously communicated, but the headwind was larger than most expected, the firm added.
09:22 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $16 from $18 at Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $16 from $18 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. Despite robust growth in originations and members, the higher multiple, capital-light pieces of SoFi slowed meaningfully, while the new Q2 guidance missed expectations, the analyst tells investors.
09:04 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $18 from $26 at Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank analyst Mark DeVries lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $18 from $26 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares post the Q1. The company's shift towards lending is pressuring the stock's valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

08:32 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $18 from $24 at TD Cowen
TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $18 from $24 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm lowered its estimates following inline Q1 results. The estimates were lowered on LPB volumes while B/S lending was stronger.
08:18 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $17 from $20 at Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $17 from $20 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Shares underperformed after Q1 results as a below-consensus outlook and lack of upward guidance revisions offset solid origination strength, particularly in student loans driven by elevated marketing activity, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The quarter also highlighted an unfavorable shift in business mix toward more capital-intensive lending, while higher-quality fee-based segments such as the technology platform declined sequentially, reinforcing concerns about profitability and limited near-term diversification into capital-light revenue streams, the firm says.
07:23 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $25 from $26 at Stephens
Stephens analyst Kyle Joseph lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $25 from $26 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares following a lighter Q2 guidance and maintained FY26 outlook. While some of the pressure on shares after earnings is tied to the lighter Q2 view, and resulting back-weighted guide for FY26, the company alluded to this on the Q4 earnings call, so it is "not new," the analyst contends.
06:56 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $21 from $24.50 at UBS
UBS lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $21 from $24.50 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. SoFi Technologies reported a modest revenue and EBITDA beat driven primarily by strength in its Lending segment, though fee-based businesses slowed meaningfully due to a large client transition in its Technology Platform segment, the analyst tells investors in a research note. While full-year guidance was maintained, weaker near-term EBITDA margin expectations and continued dependence on a stable rate environment tempered the otherwise positive operating performance, UBS says.
06:33 EDT SOFI
SoFi Technologies price target lowered to $16 from $17 at Keefe Bruyette
Keefe Bruyette analyst Tim Switzer lowered the firm's price target on SoFi Technologies to $16 from $17 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares.

CLMB +2.07 to 18.75, nice call on buying in the $15's and $16's, but might be a good idea to trim a few shares in case it dips again. Are you taking some quick profits or holding on for higher prices ?

S&P500 +59 to 7268, another all time record high on reports of an Iranian counter proposal to open the Strait .... at this rate the S&P will hit 8000 by late summer. I don't get the euphoria. Gas prices are at multi year highs, inflation is on the rise and the next Fed rate move might be a hike rather than a cut.

CNXC (23.82) is cheap on non-GAAP EPS of $2.61 for Feb Q1 but expensive on GAAP EPS of $0.33 which was down 68% y/y. Operating cash flows were negative ($83M) vs positive $1M y/y. The long term future of the business is very uncertain for their professional service due to AI and lots of competition.

10Q -
Net cash used in operating activities was $83.2 million for the three months ended February 28, 2026, compared to cash provided by operating activities of $1.4 million for the three months ended February 28, 2025. The change over the prior year period was primarily due to a decrease in net income and unfavorable working capital changes.

LAD is in a very predictable long term, albeit cyclical, business. People will always be buying cars.

I'm very confident in LAD's future, but have little confidence in CNXC's future. They are in very different businesses. No comparison.

CNXC management obviously misjudged what the market thinks their stock is worth by buying back loads of shares in the $40's and $50's. If they remain confident, then now is the time to buy back shares even more aggressively at half the price of recent buybacks. They have a $400M authorization remaining. Why bother to pay down debt when the stock is this cheap and the future so bright ???

CNXC - yeah, they foolishly bought back a lot of shares at $40+ and $50+ in the past few quarters, so you'd think they'd really get aggressive now at $23 with nearly $400M left in their buyback authorization. But would that be wise ???

It reminds me of BBBY (Bed Bath and Beyond) buying back loads of shares at high prices instead of paying down their "big arse" debt. In the end they went bankrupt.

CNXC, yup, it's their "big arse" debt (to borrow Nelson's words, lol) that's weighing heavily on the valuation and company's ability to buy back shares aggressively. Maybe it's a good long term investment now at $23, but I'm very skeptical.

CNXC - unless it's a distress sale by the holder, which I highly doubt, they wouldn't be unloading their enitre position at all time lows if they thought business prospects were good. I think they're selling because they feel the business is in relentless long term decline.

Let's see how many shares the company buys back.

CNXC -1.68 to 23.17, if a 10% holder files to sell their entire 6M share position with the stock at all time lows, then I can only presume that they've done extensive due dilligence and have concluded that the company is in an unrecoverable downward spiral. If the company were in a strong financial position, they could easily snap up those shares on the cheap, but obviously that's not the case.

I'm continuing to hold my small position to see how this plays out, but expect that it will be a tax loss sale for me later this year.

CNXC -1.72 to 23.13, a new all time low after a major shareholder files to sell 6M shares, yikes. The stock looks super cheap, but appears to be a value trap.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803599/000119312526192618/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml

MSFT - I just found this article about their new deal with OpenAI - thanks.

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-and-microsoft-strike-truce-redrawing-once-tense-partnership-9ae22700?st=2NJ9G1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

SOFI -2.84 to 15.52 after another lackluster quarter. Any thoughts on the stock action ? It does seem to be reaching technical support and the valuation is getting more reasonable with a forward PE of around 25.

briefing -

SoFi Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs in-line (18.36 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.12 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.12; revenues rose 42.6% year/year to $1.1 bln vs the $1.05 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of +30% yr/yr or $1.111 bln vs. $1.12 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues guidance for FY26, sees EPS of approx $0.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.61 FactSet Consensus; sees FY26 revs of approx $4.655 bln vs. $4.66 bln FactSet Consensus.

META raises CapEx guidance by $10B -

We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, to be in the range of $125-145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115-135 billion. This reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity."

MXC +.70 to 9.75, is mostly oil and they don't do hedging, so definitely a good play on rising oil prices .... plus it has a history of spiking higher.

RMAX (11.04) did your Q1 EPS estimate change from when you bought on 2/3 at $7.29 to when you sold on 4/14 at $6.40 ? Analyst estimates remained the same. I agree with your post for buying and then averaging down, but not your sale. What changed your view ?

Yeah, home sales remain bit soft and it's a seasonally weak quarter, but your returns might benefit by taking a longer term view rather being so focused on the current quarter ?

You seemed to be taking a longer term view in your post on 2/3 -

SSK post -

I brought some RMAX at $7.29 today. A small Position. But I do think the sector is at or near a trough in terms of volume, and even at trough earnings the stock is trading a little over 5x which is historically cheap. I see a scenario where earnings will pick up eventually as eventually people will have to sell there homes for various reasons hence I see potential for the stock to set up as potential a good investment, but this stock has also historically been a good trader as well low to mid 7's can generally get a good trading opportunity at some point. I think the stock FV on hopefully trough earnings should be in the $10.50-11.00 range. Time will tell. All is just my opinion, and I could always be wrong though.

Crude Oil +7 to 107 after Trump's "No More Mr Nice Guy" post made at 4:05am in the morning .... evidently he was having a restless night.

I'm surprised the market is holding up as well as it is, with the S&P down just 0.2%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/29/trump-iran-threat-ai-picture-gun-war-strait-of-hormuz.html

NOG oil production was down 6% y/y while NG production was up 33% .... 2026 oil production guidance was lackluster, roughly flat with Q1 even towards the high end of their guidance range.

I view NOG as a play on potentially "higher for longer" oil prices rather than production growth. Also I need some exposure to O&G drillers given this uncertainty with the Iran war.

OGN (13.32) - I missed the big move too since my entire position was covered with $9 calls and I didn't add shares on the repeated buyout rumors. Oh well, hindsight is perfect as usual, lol.

LAD +25 to 302 after reporting solid Q1 results. They also bought a hefty 4% of shares o/s during the quarter.

FWIW, I think you sell a lot of undervalued, solid stocks too easily on the slightest worry. Your portfolio turnover rate is too high. Another case in point is RMAX recently .... granted, the buyout was not predictable, but the stock was way too cheap to sell at $6.40 just 12 days ago, imho. It's now at $11.27, up 76% since then.

briefing -

Lithia Motors beats by $0.46, reports revs in-line (277.24 ) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $7.34 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.46 better than the FactSet Consensus of $6.88; revenues rose 1.0% year/year to $9.27 bln vs the $9.22 bln FactSet Consensus.

WU (8.94) is in long term decline according to this article -

Barrons -

DJ Western Union Stock Pays Out a Hefty 10%. Is It a Yield Trap? -- Barrons.com
(Dow Jones 04/29 01:30:01)

By Ian Salisbury
With a hefty 10% dividend yield, Western Union stock looks inviting. But
given that its cash flow and revenue are under assault from changing
technology, it's a risky bet for long-term investors.
Founded in 1851 and known for its ubiquitous black-and-yellow logo, Western
Union operates more than 360,000 outposts that allow immigrants, travelers,
and other customers in more than 200 countries to send money around the
world.
On the surface, the dividend payout looks solid. While Western Union's
per-share earnings haven't grown in the past few years, they've remained
remarkably steady.
Last year, the company delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.75 --
essentially flat with the previous three years. While Western Union forecast
earnings per share of $1.75 to $1.85 for 2026, Wall Street analysts expect
$1.75, according to FactSet.
The stock is dirt cheap, trading at just five times forward earnings, down
from about 13 a decade ago. The dividend, while high, is well covered. It
costs the company about $300 million a year, and Western Union generates
around $500 million in free cash flow.
But if the dividend isn't under immediate threat, it's unclear whether
Western Union will be able to sustain it in the long run, given the range of
headwinds its business faces. The market has punished the stock, which has
fallen to about $9.40 today from more than $25 five years ago.
The most immediate threat is President Donald Trump's hard-line immigration
policy, which squeezed the number of U.S. workers sending money back to
families in places like Mexico, Ecuador, and Guatemala. The crackdown took a
big bite out of first-quarter earnings, which the company reported last
week, missing Wall Street estimates. Shares fell about 6% on the news,
although they quickly recovered. They are up about 0.6% on the year.
Unfortunately, immigration is just one of the company's problems. For
decades, Western Union's biggest strength has been its reach -- its network
of outposts that allow anyone to send cash from, say, New York or London to
remote villages in almost any developing country. The rise of mobile
payments, which have seen rapid adoption in many developing nations, is
challenging that. New competitors like Wise and Remitly Global have been
threatening to steal market share and cut into margins.
Take a step back to look at Western Union's broader financial picture, and
you see a different story. Last year, the company reported $4 billion in
revenue, down from $5.4 billion a decade ago. While the company has managed
to hold earnings per share steady in the past few years, thanks in part to
stock buybacks, other measures show its profitability steadily eroding. Last
year's $500 million in free cash flow was down from more than $970 million
in 2016.
To its credit, Western Union isn't standing still. The company has unleashed
a slew of initiatives aimed at securing a turnaround. Just this year, it
closed acquisitions of digital-payments companies in Singapore and Mexico.
It expects to close a $500 million deal for Latin American remittance
competitor Intermex in the second quarter. The company has also delved into
cryptocurrency, with plans to launch a stable coin, and diversified further
into foreign exchange to cater to affluent travelers.
In the long run, Western Union's ubiquitous brands and unmatched global
network should give it an edge against newer competitors, Tom Hadley, the
company's head of corporate development and investor relations, tells
Barron's. "Scale matters a lot," he says.
The problem is, even if Western Union can carve a niche in the world
dominated by mobile payments, that's unlikely to be as stable or profitable
as its old one of handling cash remittances.
Last quarter, the number of digital transactions handled by Western Union
grew 21% but digital revenue grew only 6%, notes Deutsche Bank analyst Nate
Svensson.
"They're entering new geographies, but they're not making any money, or a
relatively small amount of money," says Svensson, who rates the stock Hold.
"In order to compete, you have to come and price super-aggressively or offer
discounts or promotions, whatever it happens to be, to drive that
transaction growth."
For 2026, Western Union forecasts overall revenue growth of 6% to 9%,
including additional revenue from the Intermex acquisition. Revenue at
Western Union's legacy business is expected to be flat. Among 21 analysts
who cover the stock, there are nine Sells, 11 Holds, and just one Buy,
according to FactSet. The average target price is $8.81, about 7% below
today's price.
The upshot: Western Union's dividend isn't in imminent danger. But the
company has yet to demonstrate that it can grow revenue and profits again.
Without those, the dividend can't go on forever. What's more, the share
price could erode, meaning that even if investors could count on the 10%
dividend yield, their total returns might be much lower.
Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com

EPAM is down with the software sector on fears that AI will take business away .... however this article also points out that AI will benefit the company in some ways. We'll see how it plays out ....

SA Article -

Some of EPAM’s more traditional, lower-value work will likely be gobbled up by AI. At the same time, however, EPAM is increasingly shifting to higher value-added work, including AI deployment. I believe we'll see many companies turning to EPAM for assistance with unsafe memory migration.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4893199-epam-systems-ai-is-a-threat-yes-but-also-an-opportunity

OGN (13.32) up 53% from my post of 2+ weeks ago .... wish I had bought a bunch of shares in the $8's, but would not have guessed the buyout price would be this high.

briefing -

Organon & Co. agrees to be acquired by Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited for $14.00/share in an all-cash transaction valuing the company at an enterprise value of ~$11.75 bln, with closing expected in early 2027 subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

KGEI is an interesting microcap O&G play, but I prefer NOG, an S&P600 smallcap with a low PE and 6%+ dividend yield.

RMAX +1.37 to 11.31, the arbitrage opportunity has been diminished, but still exists assuming the deal goes through.

TASK - I'm also holding through earnings .... the special dividend did not change the share count but of course there's a lot less cash on the balance sheet.

ETCC +.16 to .87, I'm likewise a long term bagholder in this stock and will continue to hold in the hope the company at some point returns to its previous levels of profitability. And there's always the possibility of a crazy low float momentum driven rally. The $37M in orders just announced gives a nice boost to their already strong backlog of $69M as of 11/30/25, the end of fiscal Q3. Their backlog is huge when compared to their Q3 revenues of $13M.

RITM -.07 to 10.05, a slightly subpar quarter, but their quarterly results fluctuate and the 10% yield is very safe. If they ever spinoff the REIT part of the business, the stock will get a nice pop. I'd much rather collect the dividend and covered call premiums than sell at $10. jmho.

Instead of selling at this low valuation why not write the June $10 covered calls for $0.45 ??? That's a big premium for such a short period of time.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177417811&txt2find=ritm

Crude Oil +4 to 100, as Iran takes desperate measures to store oil -

WSJ -

Iran’s oil tanks are filling up as the U.S. blockade of its ports is preventing its shipments from reaching customers and empty tankers from loading up. To avoid shutting down some of its production, Iran is already storing oil on floating tankers. But now the Islamic Republic, which is dependent on oil exports for the bulk of its revenue, is resorting to previously unused methods to conserve storage space, say current and former Iran officials.

The regime is using containers and “junk storage”—disused tanks in poor condition—in the southern oil hubs of Ahvaz and Asaluyeh, the officials say. Iran is also trying to send oil by rail to China, said Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for Iran’s oil exporting union.

Most exporters typically shun rail exports as they are much less profitable and efficient than seaborne transport.

RMAX (9.50) REAX(2.00) - Buyout terms announced .... $13.80 cash per share is capped at $80M prorata, but seems like an arbitrage opportunity to buy RMAX at $9.50 and short REAX at $2 in equivilant dollar amounts, unless the deal falls through -

PR -

Under the terms of the agreement, which has been approved by the boards of directors of both companies, the parties will form a new holding company called Real REMAX Group.

The transaction values each RE/MAX Holdings share at $13.80 based on Real’s closing price on April 24, 2026. Under the terms of the agreement, RE/MAX Holdings shareholders will have the right to elect to receive 5.152 shares of Real REMAX Group or $13.80 in cash, subject to proration such that the aggregate cash proceeds to RE/MAX Holdings shareholders in the transaction will be no less than $60 million and no greater than $80 million. Real shareholders will receive 1 share of Real REMAX Group for each Real share.3 Following the closing of the transaction, Real shareholders are expected to own approximately 59% of the combined company, and RE/MAX Holdings shareholders are expected to own approximately 41% on a fully diluted basis, assuming the midpoint of available cash consideration to RE/MAX Holdings shareholders. The transaction is intended to qualify as a tax-free transaction for U.S. federal income tax purposes.

RMAX +1.60 to 9.59 in pre-market after the WSJ reports that the company is in late stage buyout talks - the news obviously leaked out already on Friday when the stock mysteriously jumped 22% on heavy volume -

WSJ -

A deal announcement could come as soon as Monday, the people said. Including debt, the value of the deal is about $880 million, they said.
Under the terms being discussed, Re/Max shareholders could choose between 5.15 shares of the new combined entity or $13.80 in cash for each share they own. After the deal closes, Real shareholders would own about 59% of the new entity, with Re/Max shareholders owning the rest, the people said.

https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/re-max-nears-sale-to-tech-focused-real-estate-firm-13761928?st=51C2Wm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

OWL - I think there are better stocks to own than private credit, but some could become winners - here are a few -

OWL, APO, CG, BX and ARES.