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Anavex is the best stock in the world
that's not a win. that's a loss.
the virus will impact the trials.
the virus will impact funds available to FUND those trials.
the virus will kill a few patients IN those trials.
the virus will reset the economy and major governments if it continues for another 6 months.
Several mid-west states are considering closing their borders.
Chief of staff of a congressman confirms that Trump is weighing closing the nation down for 14 days.
Do with that what you will. I hope your accounts survive the next two weeks.
-Cassandra sends.
your logic is fundamentally flawed.
If the majority of people dying are old people, then there isn't going to be as large of an old-person market needing alzheimers medicine.
Yes. But the reality is that 1 Italian is dying every 4 minutes.
California will share this rate.
Agreed.
This will be bad. Very bad.
Some people are predicting 1 million layoffs next month.
GDP may be -5%, but some are predicting -10%. And no recovery for at least 5 years.
Goldman Sachs officially predicts a coronavirus-driven recession will hit the US, sees GDP shrinking 5% in 2nd quarter.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/economic-recession-forecast-coronavirus-fuel-us-gdp-contraction-market-goldman-2020-3-1028999426
Hope you were able to save yourself some money because of it.
Lets drop some new updates.
Seattle hospital runs out of gloves and masks 3 days ago.
Social distancing works, but majority of US population in Denial. Expect massive rate increase in casualties in 14 days.
Current COVID19 death rate is adjusted closer to 5%. Jumps to 20% after hospitals are overwhelmed.
US only has 300k extra beds (expect mortality rates to skyrockedt after 300k hospitalizations)
India and China have still not continued normal export rates.
Taking IBPROFEN/advil/tylenol/ nsaids as well as corticosteroids increases death rate - initial theories are that fever is essential at supressing the virus.
Current economic outlook is -5% growth for the year. Expect initial bankruptcies in the next 30 days.
Quarantine will likely extend into 60 days. Expect more bankruptcies at the 90 day mark.
-Cassandra sends
AVXL at $1 by end of week.
DOW at 10K by end of month.
DOW at 5k by end of April.
-Cassandra sends
No. China implemented 100m-person quarantines after just 400 confirmed cases. FULL SCALE quarantines - because 400 confirmed cases (and it was about 10 deaths) extrapolated out to 100k cases and 3k deaths.
The United States has +1500 confirmed cases now. And 30 deaths.
We will also not implement effective quarantines until it is too late. Much too late.
China did a good job controlling this. We will do a shit-job, on par with Iran and Italy.
Anavex is dropping because the market is dropping. The market is dropping because the entire United States has just gone on lockdown.
And in 5 days, casualties will start increasing.
And in 14 days, casualties will saturate the hospitals.
And in 30 days, mass quarantines, with violations punishable, will be announced. This will include suspension of posse-comitatus and activation of federal military in domestic policing.
At this point, DOW will hit 10k, and Anavex will hit $1.
Nothing has changed. Anavex is still a great drug and great company. The reality is that 11trillion dollars has just been wiped off the face of Walstreet in less than a month, and it had to come from somewhere.
Anavex will do well once they are complete. They may get great results, and they may be completely ignored because in the next 60 - 90 days, 1.5million Americans will die. [40% projected US infection rate, x 315million = 126million infected. With a CONSERVATIVE casualty rate of 1%, that is 1.2million people. With an EXPECTED casualty rate of 3%, that's 3.6million.
Just dead. D-E-A-D.
2-73 might be able to cure cancer, Alzheimer's, balding, and social awkwardness, but it won't matter, because everyone will be focused on not dying and keeping food in their belly's.
I expect Anavex to hit $1. I expect the DOW to hit 10k.
Expect a recovery maybe 2021.
did anyone sell? I sold at $5. DOW will weigh this down and only come up for air when DOW hits 10k.
hope you guys re-balanced your portfolios.
Cassandra
Avxl hit $2. It'll hit $1 soon.
Cassandra.
homestreet, sounds good. I am riding the global economic disaster wave to the bottom with SPXU, then sliding back over to AVXL in a month or two. (When people stop dying, it's time to buy back in)
I agree there are decent antivirals in the market, but they don't exist in quantity's enough to cure 'the whole world.' Best estimates put a recovery at 4-6 months.
But that's all future conjecture and relatively useless to the immediate conversation.
In that time, oil (as we can see) is dropping (anything less than $40/share and the world economy gets funny).
I am think the next two weeks will be extremely telling on how the market is doing, and how well / poorly we are handling the virus.
This will tumble after this weekend. Down to $2. Maybe $1s. Everyone is pulling their money out of the stock market en'masse.
Sell all AVXL stocks. Even normal stocks.
I'm out completely. Every stock I own. Just liquidated +$200k into cash.
This is not an issue with AVXL, (it is a good company and has the goods) - but the global stock market is about to be destroyed, and the DOW should be at 15K by April.
Friends of mine work the Seattle ports, and they said they are nearly empty. Seattle accounts for 8% of the U.S. import/exports.
India just stopped exporting 23 drugs, and drugs.com is reporting shortages already. This means there will not be any medicine available for even normal issues, let alone COVID19 issues.
China is not exporting for another 2 months. Those exports won't get here for a month after that.
US airliners are cutting flights by the hundreds. Lufthansa as well. Flybe just collapsed (first economic casualty).
This is the hurricane, this is the volcano, this is the housing crash and more (because this is the global economy, not just U.S. housing). This is the Titanic, we just scraped the iceberg, and AVXL and everyone else are passengers. AVXL will survive, but it's going to have to get to a lifeboat.
So from one old investor (Remember when I was in NVIV and advised everyone to drop NVIV in 2015 and come over to AVXL? Is anyone that old here anymore?) I am imporring all of you to do the same, because this isn't going to end well for anyone.
Buy back in when the dust settles. But right now, the market hasn't even begun to drop.
I sold 50% of my holdings (20k) due to global market concerns.
China reported no-factories will be fully operational until at least mid-march.
Maersk reports less than 10% outgoing fullfillment from China. Cut its shipping projection by half.
WSJ reports the US Productivity index fell to 49.6 this month (anything below 50 is a retraction).
Chinese auto sales dropped 96%.
Expect oil to drop to $25/barrel due to a lack of Chinese demand.
South Korea is announcing major academic and business closures.
U.S. Domestic small and mid-sized business are starting to lay off employees.
-- So for all those reasons, I'm expecting a big pull back. Not because AVXL doesn't have 'the stuff' - rather, everyone is about to be hit in the face with a 1928 style depression.
Good luck to you guys. I'll buy back in when the time is right.
$6-$10 soon. No re-consolidation.
I understand your sentiment towards re-consolidation, but I don't think it'll happen. Before, when it happened, it was usually because every piece of good news was met with the realization of 'another year, another year,' which promoted reconsoldiation on gains.
That's why we surged to $14, then crashed, because everyone realized we were YEARS away.
But things have changed this time. We aren't years away from anything. We are 6 months or less.
Over 5 million (almost 10-14million) (+$50-75million dollars) of shares have been traded in the past two weeks. That's not normal, and it's not retail. I bought 10k, and I doubt all of us retailer's combined would rival 250k.
So someone is accumulating, Parkwest, Blackrock, and others. We were under the $5 threshold for since 2017, and a lot of funds may have 'wanted' us, but until we re-crossed back into $5 territory, we were off limits.
We surged 2m shares today and topped at $1, retraced 25% from highs, and settled at 80cents (16%) with AH of $5.91. For that reason, I see $5 as the new floor.
And conspirationally, we just received Fast Track for Retts, which historically holds a 90% approval rate. Retts market has us at a range of $30-$50/share if we are approved. Also, what is more likely, that Dr. Missling has sat around waiting for data to come in, or he's been shaking hands and kissing babies with the intent to make a 'pre-deal' ie, --> insert good natured German accent "if zee Retts data is good, and we get zee Fast Track, what numbers are you looking at bringing to zee table?"
I anticipate there are a lot of 'pre-deals' - and I anticipate that despite insider knowledge, it has leaked to a few key people (because no secret is unknown forever in a niche organization. someone always knows something) - and WallStreet pays NYC clerks and secretaries $10k-$50k 'under the table' for insider knowledge.
So most likely, someone has that knowledge, that there is a pre-deal (Dr. M has shown himself to be a planner, not a sitter-arounder) and when certain milestones are met, the 'pre-deal' becomes a 'real-deal.'
Pfizer, Merck, or Biogen have more than a few $Billion laying around to sweeten any deal, and they're not going to willingly pass up an opportunity without a fight. So they will probably over-pay today to benefit tomorrow. If it's worth $50 in a year, they'll pay $100. They have access to the data as well (nefariously or just through good relationships), and are getting data readouts (probably) very close to the source - it's like war, they have their spies too. There is a lack of drugs in a lot of pipelines right now, so to know (openly or through other means) that a drug is about to make it, and that Anavex doesn't have an established partner, then a lot of 'pre-deals' are probably starting to have fresh ink put to fresh paper.
So I would anticipate that this will break $6 tomorrow. If it holds $6 through the week into next week, we will probably tap $10 by the end of the month. Then we squat and hold for the next drip-drop or bucket's worth of information in the form of read-outs or partnership.
$20 by summer and $50 upon approval.
Because what is happening is no longer retail driven.
It's deep money that has waited a few years to get back in.
Or maybe this falls back to $3 or $4, but then a lot of funds HAVE TO sell their shares when it drops below $5. And I don't think they're going to let them go knowing that a pre-deal is around the corner.
But... to be a devils advocate, the average fund in 2019 only held their shares for 5 days, so maybe we see massive selling this week for that reason alone. I'll be very poopy-pants if that happens, but I don't expect it to.
GLTA.
This?
It doesn't say anything about Inovio.
https://www.darpa.mil/news-events/2018-02-22
yeah.... that doesn't actually tell me anything useful.
Not looking to start a fight, (used to be a big INO owner back in 2014/2015) so it caught my attention when Inovio announced they had sequenced the virus.
With that, what are the chances INO will actually achieve a vaccine, versus being sidelined by traditional anti-viral meds? I know INO sequenced MERS back in the day, but did anything actually come of it?
Or will this be a momentum run up based on fear? (easy flip, but still just a trade).
Thanks.
Top123, Good question.
Yes, there are secondary and tertiary suppliers, but having talked to a few purchasers, they cannot ramp up production with new orders (to compensate for China's inability to support pre-existing orders) until summer 2020, because of preexisitng current secondary and tertiary market orders from India, Malaysia, etc.
Frankly, no one appreciated or anticipated that China's economic engines would ever come 'off-line' - so there wasn't a contingency in place.
So it's like we were all standing in line at the IMAX theater to see the new-new Star Wars, we bought all the tickets, so all the other people had to buy their tickets at normal movie theaters.
And then the IMAX catches fire and burns down to the ground.
Now, to see star-wars, the world supply chain has to get to to the back of the line at the regular theaters, or OVER pay to jump line - if we see that, then that's inflation, and rates increase, and that's a whole different bag of worms.
But the supply issue is real, as gangs are now raiding stores and warehouses in China to gather basic and high-demand supplies - hand sanitizer and toilet paper is a big one. THIS IS IMPORTANT because it means that DOMESTIC CHINESE economies cannot even support themselves, let alone the world's, or ours, across the ocean.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51527043
Again, Anavex benefits because it has cash on hand and is not dependent on any major logistics support to maintain its position.
I don't think we are being fair to the discussion.
I think it is obvious that Apple and other supply-dependent companies will be hurt by an economic delay in China.
I think Anavex will rise because its risk levels are significantly lower than larger companies, and it only has 20 employees. Not 20,000.
I agree with your assessment.
I was going with calendar because everything is 3 months delayed.
In 1 month (March) we'll have real-numbers from Q4 2019. They will ALSO mention future projections at that point.
In 4 months (July) we'll have Q1 from 'this phase' and be able to evaluate the effects of China's economic lockdown.
But before that happens, to evaluate real-impact, keep an eye on big-box retail stores store shelves (because they have less than 30days of stock-on-hand in warehouses and less than 3-days stock-on-hand in stores.)
Also, keep an eye on Amazon - a lot of things are starting to pop up as 'temporarily out of stock.'
When two of the biggest retail companies in the United States suffer from 'not being able to sell' i-e- we cannot do business, then I am not waiting for Summer reports to tell me the China lockdown is having economic effects.
Coronavirus may be a hidden blessing to Anavex (AVXL)
U.S. goods and services trade with China totaled an estimated $737.1 billion in 2018. Exports were $179.3 billion; imports were $557.9 billion. The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $378.6 billion in 2018.
Simple terms, all that stopped 1 month ago, and roughly $62Billion in trade, (this month) is NOT happening.
If you read the business and social media reports (Reddit, facebook, etc.), U.S. importers and exporters are LOSING their MINDS and seeking secondary suppliers because their regular Chinese suppliers aren't so much as answering their emails. (They are on lockdown for 30days.) Even ali-express/ebay fulfillment departments have stopped.
U.S. manufacturers are therefore seeking secondary and tertiary options (India, Malaysia, etc.) but those suppliers are sub-standard and cannot accept new orders until Q3.
The long-story-long of this, is that Chinese MANUFACTURING and U.S. RETAIL is about to be butchered. Logistics will be collateral damage. God pray for you if you work in any of these departments.
What does this mean for AVXL?
It means that Q2 - after the manufacturing, retail, and logistics blood bath, financial institutions will seek refuge. Either a) remove all their funds (exhibited by a cash-and-hold act) sparking a recession, or the funds will seek safe refuge. Inflation will increase.
In an inflation-increase market....
Keep Cash in Money Market Funds or TIPS. ... <-- not effect
Avoid Long-term Fixed Income Investments. ... <--Anavex
Emphasize Growth in Equity Investments. ... <-- Anavex
Commodities Tend to Shine with Inflation. ... <-- false in this situation
Inflation is Usually Kind to Real Estate. ... <-- 50/50 due to people being unable to pay their rent/mortgage (this depends on how long the recession lasts)
Convert Adjustable-Rate Debt to Fixed-Rate. <-- Not Anavex
So... Markets will seek safe refuge in markets that will not be affected.
There will only be a few of them. RealEstate is not (because people need jobs to pay their rents/mortgages). Finance will be 50/50
Domestic Manufacturing will be crap, most domestic U.S. manufacturing has been mothballed since 2000.
Farming/food will maintain - exports will become domestic focused because Chinese exports have failed simply because there isn't anyone to man the docks. Chinese exports are (per ship logistics reports) at max 10% loaded.)
So shipping is also a bust (logistics).
As such, I've identified three markets that will likely flourish. Domestic farming, Artificial Intelligence, and Medical.
I won't discuss farming and AI, because that is another chapter for another day.
Medical is 2-part. One, the first failure, will be importers of medicine (90% of antibiotics and medicine is imported from CHINA) so any company whose finances are dependent on steady-stream medicine will be disrupted Q2.
Financial institutions will thus seek very niche markets.
Anavex may be that market - still in research phase, not dependent on revenue stream from medicine (because we simply aren't there yet) but able to 'activate' its economic engines post-coronavirus (Q3)
Holy shit guys and gals. We may have accidentally found ourselves sitting on a fund that a) novel treatment, b) not dependent on revenue, c) immune to the pending financial crisis, d) will benefit form asset relocation to mitigate losses from logistics/retail/manufacturing failures.
So hold on. It's about to be a pretty interesting Q2/Q3.
Then why conduct a Parkinson's study in Spain? Why spend all that money? I disagree with your statement.
Anavex is going to lose Parkinsons and MS. Maybe everything.
"Scientists find a molecular switch (and an FDA approved drug) that could reverse myelin sheath damage that occurs in neurogenerative diseases like Parkinson's disease and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and in spinal cord injury - blocking the PAR 1 receptor improves nerve healing in mouse models."
A molecular switch has the ability to turn on a substance in animals that repairs neurological damage in disorders such as multiple sclerosis (MS), Mayo Clinic researchers discovered. The early research in animal models could advance an already approved Food and Drug Administration therapy and also could lead to new strategies for treating diseases of the central nervous system.
... by genetically switching off a receptor activated by blood proteins, named Protease Activated Receptor 1 (PAR1), the body switches on regeneration of myelin, a fatty substance that coats and protects nerves.
"Myelin regeneration holds tremendous potential to improve function. We showed when we block the PAR1 receptor, neurological healing is much better and happens more quickly. In many cases, the nervous system does have a good capacity for innate repair," says Dr. Scarisbrick, principal investigator and senior author. "This sets the stage for development of new clinically relevant myelin regeneration strategies."
Myelin acts like a wire insulator that protects electrical signals sent through the nervous system. Demyelination, or injury to the myelin, slows electrical signals between brain cells, resulting in loss of sensory and motor function. Sometimes the damage is permanent. Demyelination is found in disorders such as MS, Alzheimer's disease, Huntington's disease, schizophrenia and spinal cord injury.
Thrombin is a protein in blood that aids in healing. However, too much thrombin triggers the PAR1 receptor found on the surface of cells, and this blocks myelin production. Oligodendrocyte progenitor cells capable of myelin regeneration are often found at sites of myelin injury, including demyelinating injuries in multiple sclerosis.
The research focused on two mouse models. One was an acute model of myelin injury and the other studied chronic demyelination, each modeling unique features of myelin loss present in MS, Alzheimer's disease and other neurological disorders. Researchers genetically blocked PAR1 to block the action of excess thrombin.
The research not only discovered a new molecular switch that turns on myelin regeneration, but also discovered a new interaction between the PAR1 receptor and a very powerful growth system called brain derived neurotropic factor (BDNF). BDNF is like a fertilizer for brain cells that keeps them healthy, functioning and growing.
Significantly, the researchers found that a current Food and Drug Administration-approved drug that inhibits the PAR1 receptor also showed ability to improve myelin production in cells tested in the laboratory.
"It is important to say that we have not and are not advocating that patients take this inhibitor at this time," says Dr. Scarisbrick. "We have not used the drug in animals yet, and it is not ready to put in patients for the purpose of myelin repair. Using cell culture systems, we are showing that this has the potential to improve myelin regeneration."
https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/entf9q/scientists_find_a_molecular_switch_and_an_fda/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
I used to be.
Now I'm more in the 'I believe in the science, but I am doubting the business model.'
This runup is just like all the other runups.
ANAVEX Christmas Card. Got one today. because of this, I'm buying 100,000 shares on open.
Anavex is the best
The Rett P2 study is much better constructed than the Alz P2 study. I feel that the Rett data points released today are near bullet proof - and could be used for black box or expedited approval.
I am still, however, reserved that this matters for approval (despite agreeing that 'yes, A27-3 completely works') because of AVXL's Alzheimer struggle they have endured since November 2014 (a month that will go down in infamy!)
And despite the data points, we are seemingly no closer for Alz than we were 5 years ago.
So, does A27-3 work? Yes. Clearly. Such tight tolerances of P=0.003, and a 50 to 34 point improvement means there is no room for discussion. A27-3 works. hands down. But despite the exuberance, a Rett P3 will not be complete until Summer 2020. Which won't be marketable or FDA approved until Q4 2020 or sometime in 2021. If the data continues to be presented like it has been, maybe we'll tick to $4, or even $5, but if we ever see $10 again before 2021 it will be very unexpected (by me at least).
So the variable is do we get early approval for Rett, or not? I want it to be yes, but seeing how Alz is going, I think nothing will be rushed to approval, despite the logical reason that A27-3 should be.
hi Plexrec,
I've been busy and unable to get involved as much as I used to - also, there are too many FUD'ers on here now (when it was just the small crew in 2014 and Anavex was an unknown with huge potential, the information was clearer and the community was not quite as 'corner street prophecy preacher the end is nigh!' - we could actually comfortably and logically share information.
I'm happy to see that Rett is started. I think Anavex will perform better once it gets out of the 'study' period and into the 'licensed medicine' period (but it does get annoying to show up to the party 5 years too early :)
Hope you are well!
WS
Good find. Great find.
The name absolutely does not roll of the tongue, but whatever. "Blarcamesine" = A273.
But what's more important are the classes it is being applied to:
Antidementias; Antidepressants; Antiepileptic drugs; Antiparkinsonians; Anxiolytics; Behavioural disorder therapies; Dimethylamines; Furans; Neuroprotectants; Neuropsychotherapeutics; Nootropics;
Tells me they know something we haven't been told yet.
Lol, yes, I fully agree, BUT, at the same time, I think it important to recognize the road ahead in its entirety.
While exciting and very indicative of great things to come, I think we all need to temper our expectations with this 2b/3 announcement (cue the booing but hear me out). The announcement is approval to start, not indication that we have started, let alone funded it. It is the same as receiving a college acceptance letter - sure, let's celebrate, but we still have to go, pay, study, graduate and also get a job.
BUT, yes, I agree that we should start seeing a lot of PRs - Alz, PDD, Rett as the top three, with at least most of them starting or having started by Q4/Q1.
At that point, I think we'll be in the $10 range in anticipation for 'the news' that is either a) early approval or b) readouts. With that, please, everyone, enjoy today but don't take a 2nd mortgage out on your house because this thing will SWING wildly on perceived news, real news, anticipation, disappointment, and profit taking.
H2 will be legitimate (either way.)