Leverage decades of market experience shared openly.
Leverage decades of market experience shared openly.
Not only a teeny, weeny market at is now stands, but without something (like legal victories, or new formulation) that market is very tenuous and can degrade rather quickly. Now possibly a large pharma with oodles of extra cash (and know how) could do something with it. But it doesn't seem to interest anyone at this moment and if it ever did no way would we get the premium so many are talking about. I agree with you that right at this moment the stock is undervalued. So hoping something swings some momentum our way but I could get it quickly I would be ecstatic with $80 to $100 - quickly.
It strikes me that if investors other than on here and ST think a BO is coming that the stock price would be heading higher not lower.
But also not in the sectors that are holding up today either, like energy, divvy payers, etc.
LBL appears every few years, makes some ridiculous claim, and then you don't hear from him again. Worse than him is some poster(s) reaching out and asking him to come back or respond.
You could pick apart each and every one of them, but let me first start with Ketchum. What R&D is he involved in???
Thanks. Although I doubt much substantive information will be released there, it should be supportive for the stock. Haven't followed the other stocks you mentioned in other posts and will take a peek when I get a chance but p and d opportunities I am trying to shy away from
You are right. It just seemed like in the very recent past we had imports from ST stirring up the brew and reading every tiny tea leaf. They seem to have calmed down somewhat as the stock price has settled back 25%. Will this misadventure ever end?
So weren't the audited results supposed to be out before the end of January? We are now 3 days past that
Do you like KOD?
ADBE at more than a 5 yr low. CRM way down. Don't have any software but might dip my toes in it a bit since it is all doom and gloom. On a side note I saw where data centers are being received so negatively that they are trying to disguise them.
As far as KOD it is down a little over 20% from Dec highs and although I have never owned any I might take a small position.
I'm guessing they immediately vest if the company is acquired (slime balls).
Only negatives are large debt and gross margins falling
Satrical post as I know that you know that all those external things wouldn't affect UNCY's business prospects. Safe haven. Now you might have to raise that $5 buying objective to $7.
It seems the downdraft has gotten worse since they announced the new hire - commercialization manager. Meaning GIA
Good to see you around. What is going on with CRMD?
Most of the time, depends on the stock and particular situation. Some of those mentioned were stopped out but I still consider that a kick in the arse because I had purchased above those stops. I like to move them up as stock rises but with some it is just down after purchase. I guess it saves me from more losses.
I would say Amarin needs that guy.
Only slightly making up for a beating I am taking in CRDO, MRVL, OCUL. And who knows what else.
Yep. Is this the message you are referring to on uncy board?
Actually doesn't sound like the choices are in our hands. That is the allure of a BO for me. Means I don't screw up (like I usually do). If I sell the stock then takes off and if I hold disaster strikes and it drops. With a BO there is no choosing on my part
Meant to add that for me it is a combination of price and time. Take $30 happily if it is within 6 months, and if I have to hold longer I would be hoping for more.
I would be satisfied with $30, although that seems like we would be getting slighted a bit when I look at the avg analyst target being $46?
I think Aggarwal being on the board increases the strength of your argument. Otherwise (hedge funds simply investing) I have seen many disastrous things happen regardless of their investment. Hopeful the ex GS guy plays an outsized role in helping guide the company to garner the best deal.
Do you think there is any possibility that the stock price could be in the high teens before approval? Reason I ask, is that it is possible (maybe unlikely) that a BO offer could come before approval. Reason I posit that is because everyone now knows that there is no problem with the drug (efficacy, side effects, etc.) and any acquirer would know the third party manufacturer and the problems identified. Easy enough for an acquirer to kick some tires and know ahead of time whether everything is satisfactory for an FDA approval this time around.
Stumble and I see problem 3 with so many small cos that have their head set on GIA. Ultimately, because they can never launch a drug like BP can, sales drag and as time passes, new alternatives arise and BP then becomes interested in the new shiny thing not the thing that has been stagnating. There is a small window for selling to BP - miss it and you are screwed.
Also I never answered you with respect to GERN. But over the last 15 years, I can't remember how many times I bought into that stock only to get fatigued waiting and selling out.
So is this just an oversold bounce or are we back on track?
Duplicate post
JRoon, my apologies right off the bat if I don't understand or explain all this correctly. Sarissa's goal is to turn this into a full fledged royalty company right? I believe your opinion is that in no way are they going to spend any cash on an acquisition, be it a company or a drug. So you would think that a hedge fund (or whatever they are) like Sarissa would not just park all that cash for those measly interest rates. Once they become a full royalty company (by dealing the U.S.) what do they do with all that extra cash? Does it get returned to us shareholders in the form of a special dividend? As you can see I am quite a novice with this but so much is unknown - at least to me.
And, are you saying that when they originally planned the BB that they had no idea that they would be going down this royalty road? Don't get me wrong the royalty road is quite good for anyone buying right in here now. But for some of us looking to recoup our long term losses I don't think this plan helps us in anything but a very long time.
We need more information about this delayed/abandoned buyback. Wish an analyst asking questions at a CC could press them on this. Why is this on the top of my head this morning? I am a shareholder in another stock - CRMD. Which over the last couple of months has been brutalized stock price wise. I wake up this morning to their announcement that their board has approved a $75 million stock buyback. But here is the thing, they only have 150 million in cash, have been investing in another company and its drug, and has 79 million shares outstanding. I could see CRMD being cautious about doing a BB, but when I compare AMRN to that, there should really be no reason for AMRN not to do some BB. Like Tasty I worry that they still have some crazy plan for the money, but I hope I am totally wrong on that.
Yep JRoon I clearly understood your 30-40 was for year-end. That is why I mentioned a double in a year. But even if that were to happen, we wouldn't be seeing $200 for a very long time. The 30 to 40 should be much easier because:
A) we are grossly undervalued right now, andB) news of a deal for U.S. would give added momentum to the stock and highlighting A.
Thanks for your hard work and that information. You rock.
Stumble, not to butt in, but I believe Kiwi was mentioning the product to be put into clinics as soon as approval, not before. What they should be doing before is educating all the clinics to be ready for a quick go when ready.
DAR, I guess there is just not much right now to hoot and holler about. A lot of posts leading up to the SC decision and now we simply are in a void until the next earnings report. March isn't it. That plus the fact the stock price has been in the dumps so interest is low.
Kiwi you need to be on UNCY's board steering all this. But as many of us here have voiced concern over the proficiency of management I do have a question concerning one item you posted:
This is important .
UNCY needs to present at any and every major Renal conference they can between now and June 29th .
Theres a story I have about approval of a serum potassium drug ..Veltassa ...which in brief ....I owned Co RLYP , Valtessa was approved but wife wasn't prescribing it . I asked why not ...her answer " Head of Dept hasn't OK'd it "
Head of Dept goes to conference ...does a big deep dive into Veltessa with RLYP chief medical officer ...comes back as says ..."OK start prescribing it "
It was like a light was switched on
The partnering can sometimes lead to a BO and sometimes can interfere with a possible BO. But the GIA plan, if it is not simply a bluff to get a better offer can be a big stumbling block to a BO. Namely, the egos of those who think they can go it alone and remain stubbornly against selling.
JRoon, if I dare stick my nose to opine with risk of it getting cut off. First let me say I have no way of knowing which direction the company wants to go. Maybe they don't even know themselves as evidenced by their history of steering the company.
But, if I had to guess why some people are not happy with turning into a royalty model (except for the U.S. they actually are already) is that they feel that under that scenario the stock price will never reach levels that they are hoping for, namely; greater than $200 per share. To be fair to the royalty model, if someone bought today and could double their money in a year, what is to crow about. But in reality many here (like myself) are so underwater that $30 or $40 doesn't seem like what we have been holding so long for.
Mr. Main, apologies that I will clog up your thread here, since I have no way of knowing or even guessing as to any or all developments with Amarin this year and have to actually second Jasbg's post that basically there is no way to know.
But since on the topic, I do have a comment/question to some who have replied with guesses to your question/poll. Namely, that some may believe that the company will be sold before 12/31/2026. I don't have disagreement with that idea but what I would like to know is how could Amarin be sold for the numbers that some posters are throwing out for a possible sale? What would have to happen in less than 11 months for a valuation anywhere between 5 and 8 billion? I would think to catch that kind of an offer either Amarin would have to gain some huge legal victory boxing out the Generics or introduce the new formulation. Either of those seem to me to be much farther out than 11 months. But I would be thrilled if there was something to accomplish that.
Thanks Denisk, not only for contacting them with the question but letting us all know about the response. So he explains that they need approval before submitting any application for TDAPA. I am still a little confused when I read the following AI description but hopefully some here will explain it a little better:
Companies generally receive the Transitional Drug Add-on Payment Adjustment (TDAPA) designation and see it take effect on January 1 (as part of the annual ESRD PPS update) or, less frequently, July 1 (as part of a quarterly release), depending on when the application is submitted.
January 1 (Annual Update): Many major approvals, such as for new oral-only phosphate binders, are aligned with the start of the calendar year.
July 1 (Quarterly Release): Recent approvals, such as DEFENCATH® (taurolidine and heparin), have taken effect on July 1.
Other Potential Dates: While January 1 and July 1 are key dates, TDAPA can technically begin at the start of any quarter (Jan, April, July, Oct) depending on the approval timeline.
Key Takeaways on Timing:
Application Timing: To get an early January effective date, applications are typically required in early July.
Average Timeline: CMS aims for an effective date one quarter after the HCPCS code is assigned, which is usually around 6 months after the quarterly application submission deadline.
Duration: Once approved, the TDAPA is generally paid for a 2-year period.
Thanks for the explanation. I typically try to sell after a runup and then on news ( didn't this time) but I also don't do that in a taxable account and lose potential for LT gains
So, I guess when the S hits the F, and my stocks starting dropping I start looking at who to blame --- I obviously should be looking at the mirror!!!
BUT, was just thinking. It was posted on this board months ago as to the timing of the resubmission, acceptance, approval, and TDAPA entry.
So obviously the company, who is in the business to know to this stuff - obviously was aware.
THEN why did they wait until late December to resubmit? If they had resubmitted in late November, they could have gotten a decision date in late May, with theoretically plenty of time to get TDAPA. Anyone know if there was some particular reason they couldn't have resubmitted in November? So many of these companies just love to milk stuff. Heck they are getting paid so why not.