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Moody's Opinion is Not Good... Here's Why. Cote Lake is not a write-off as some thought. See below from the Q2 2014 Earnings conference call. Cote Lake is decent grade of .9g/t located in a non - political risk and lower energy cost area of Canada. Below it shows Prefeasibility to be done Q1 2016. This site has enough ounces at .9t/g to produce 350,000 ounces of gold per year for 20 years. Moody's is crazy downgrading and not even mentioning this. Moody's also didn't mention Westwood in Canada that already started operations in summer 2014 with quality grade at 100,000 ounces per year. Moody's didn't consider all that in Canada when saying high geopolitical risk and low mine life. Cote Lake will be 350,000 ounces per year .9g/t. Also Moody's did say they would upgrade IamGold's credit rating if they're happy with which mine they purchase next. Also this Q2 Report confirmed $300 Million Cash n Bullion Holdings + $750 Million Untapped Line of Credit not expiring until 2020 + $530 Million Niobec Sale - $600 Million Debt. People also forget the Niobec mine required a lot of money to extend its life. $530 Million was not bad for it. ------------------ The last project that I wanted to talk about is Côté Gold. Our positive view of this asset has not changed. During the quarter, we completed more than 14,000 meters of definition drilling over selected areas of the deposit. A key objective of this program is to better understand the controls on grade distribution and improve the resource model as part of the ongoing feasibility study. We have also begun exploration activities in targeted areas surrounding the deposit which will be followed by diamond drilling programs in the second half of the year. We remain on track to complete the feasibility study by Q1 2016. Our exploration teams have accomplished a lot in the past six months. We have had some encouraging results and remain focused on advancing these promising projects.
Cummins should definitely buy out Westport at this low price even after a premium it would be cheap.
What's the deal with the Niobec Mine Sale for $520 Million? I did the math of splitting that on the 377 Shares outstanding and its free cash of $1.40 per share. That news came out Friday morning, why in the world did it drops after that news? I've seen miners sell off certain mines for cash before and the price always went up weeks and months after. It creates excitement because investors wonder what they will buy with the free cash. This and the drilling results in Diakha with low cost huge reserves. I can't believe not many people on here mention that. They're 50/50 with Merrex Gold on it. I bet IamGold will buy the other half buying Merrex Gold. Its stock spiked all year probably in anticipation of a buyout. Also, without the Niobec, it makes it easier for another large miner to buy out IamGold and Merrex. This must be a delayed reaction situation. I think IamGold will spike hard Monday!
Math Shows This is the Correct Price of IAG at Gold $1,000. The drop in the past 2 months was Pure Manipulation and CANNOT LAST. It must mean revert back up because Since August 1, 2014 Spot Gold dropped from $1,300 to $1,200. During that period of 2 months IAG dropped from $4.00 to $2.70. That’s a whopping 33% Drop in 2 months! While Spot Gold only dropped 8% in those 2 months! That's a ratio of drop 4:1 Mining to Spot Gold, which is way to wide! Normally the ratio is 2:1 drop Mining to Gold and that ratio should get even narrower the lower mining gets. The rate of drop of IAG at 33% would be justified if Spot Gold dropped from $1,300 to $1,100 in 2 months, that would be a 15% drop in gold x 2 ratio would justify IAG down 30%. However IAG dropped even more at 33% and that is not including the tendency of diminishing effect where the lower it gets, the ratio becomes narrower. Let’s say that at these low levels the ratio of mining drop to gold should be 1.5 X’s drop of spot gold. That would mean if Gold dropped from $1,300 two months ago down to $1,000 right now, that would be a 23% drop X 1.5 mining to gold drop ratio = 23% x 1.5 = 35% Drop. IAG’s current drop of 33% in the past 2 months is justifying a drop equivalent to Spot Gold being at $1,000 right now !!! These ratios are accurate because we’re talking in the last 2 months and the drop happened a week after all the mining quarter reports end of July. It stayed steady immediately after the quarter reports meaning it wasn't a fundamental reason. Nothing fundamentally changed since the drop started from Gold $1,300 in August 2014 to now. This indicates it’s 100% Wall Street Manipulation which never lasts, so 100% she will mean revert back up. IAG at $2.70 would be justified only if Spot Gold was $1,000 right now! So if Gold starts trending up, IAG will Sky Rocket hard and fast! If Gold settles in the $1,300's IAG should be 1:1 Price to Book Value $7.50 per Share. This doesn't even factor in the value of the low cost high reserve Diakha mine to start in 2016. Stay Long.
That Seeking Alpha Article showed a Base Case of Upside of At Least 59%. However that article was written in Mid-August 2014 when IAG was $3.99 and his base case target $6.35. Now IAG is $2.75 and using that $6.35 realistic target is 131% Upside! That SA author also didn't factor in the upside from the Diakha find! He only ran the numbers on the other operating mines and only factored the new Cote Lake mine in Canada. In 2015 they release a Pre-Feasibility report on the mine in Diakha with a low $800 AISC which can be built quickly after. I'm holding this long until it doubles from this low price, even 2 years if that's what it takes. It could even triple in 2 years from $2.75. This is a WILD price, I can't believe Wall Street is so stubborn and not grabbing it up .37 Price to Book per share!
Right Now. It's below 2008 lows if you don't count the quick monthly wick in 2008. It's at .37 Price to Book ratio per share. Meaning that if it went bankrupt now, you would get close to this price per share back. Lots of good news coming up with the new mining drill results in Africa. Look at Merrex Gold to see the excitement, IamGold is in with Merrex 50/50 at Diakha. Hold strong.
Check out the articles in thes websites out...
http://www.northernminer.com/news/merrex-gold-and-iamgold-report-game-changing-discovery-at-siribaya/1003151133/?&er=NA
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2460395-iamgold-discounted-cash-flow-shows-upside-potential-of-at-least-59-percent
Go to www.shortsqueeze.com
It might rebound faster than you think. 30% Short Float all need to cover as Q1 2015 Product Release approaches. They know it was manipulation and will go up, so they have to cover soon. Such a large short float would double the stock fast if many cover at once. Also, the buying hype leading up to product sales reports. When Blackberry BB10 was coming out, it was supposed to be the saviour phone for the company, shares tripled in the 6 months leading up to phone release. After numbers started coming out, it just dropped. We could get a good lead-up to Q1 product release and then more when numbers show well.
AFREZZA $57 BILLION ANNUAL REVENUE... 382 Million Diabetics X 10% Capture X $1,500 Annual Afrezza Cost = $57 BILLION / YEAR. The numbers don't lie. The only question is whether we capture 10% of worldwide diabetics. I believe it will be done because Afrezza is targeting a new market of type 2 diabetics that should be on insulin but don't like needles. HUGE untapped market. Not to mention all existing insulin users converting over to Afrezza because it's the ONLY Ultra-Rapid Insulin that will be on the market in 2015. Also, Diabetes a World-wide growing Epidemic. It's estimated 400 Million Diabetics in 2015 and growing each year.
Bull's Eye Investview Trading Room newsletter recommends shorts cover. They recommend shorting WPRT at $19.00 and now say the drop exceeded their expectations. The shorts are being stubborn and greedy, so it'll slowly start going up and increase faster as most shorts start throwing in the towel. This stock was going down for 9 months. The tide will turn as this is a momentum stock and when it trends up, it'll keep going. Good projects are in store and earnings expected to creep up for years to come.
BATTERIES ARE NOT A THREAT. They pump out articles like that to help the shorts, and the uneducated holders freak out and sell. Read this clip from Motley Fool. 25% Short Float in WPRT ready to cover. I know the beauty of it, I bought JC Penney at $5.10 right before the overnight short covering to $7.50! They had a 50% short float at the time. This shows a law of physics where batteries will only be a supplement and never threaten natural sources.
http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/WPRT/5850015/a-company-like-this-with-key-i.aspx
"A company like this with key inventions to make natural gas a successful substitute fuel in diesel engines, joint venture with Cummins, the world's best diesel engine manufacturer, and more ventures on the way should be successful. To top it off natural gas is the economic choice to supplement hydrocarbons from crude oil in light of the vast reserves which can be developed in the United States. Electric cars will depend on power from generating plants which exhaust 2/3 of the energy input to the surroundings, or more unreliable sources such as wind. Alternative cars such and electric and ethanol are cute supplements to direct use of clean fuels such as methane, LPG, gasoline, and Diesel, the source of our modern economic success, but will always be uneconomic (according to the first, second and third laws of thermodynamics).."
WPRT has a 25% Short Float. www.shortsqueeze.com It will start squeezing with short covering very soon. I bought 600 shares today at $14.85 as well. Very good long-term trade at this point as average price target is $25.00 and earnings are expecting to increase every quarter over the next few years.
BURN IN HELL SHORTS !!!!!! I HOPE YOU LOST LOTS OF MONEY !!!! LET'S NOT BE FRIENDLY TO THOSE A HOLES THAT ABUSED THE LONGS FOR SO LONG. WE HOPE YOU LOST LOTS !!@!!@@
The analysts get paid under the table by the large institutions. When in a downtrend the large commercial institutions making big money off shorting pay the analysts to estimate low price targets and trash talk articles online. Then when the trend changes to up and long, the commercial institutions go long and pay the analysts off to upgrade their price targets and start writing positive. This is especially true with the large bank analysts, and even with Seeking Alpha and Motley Fool, they have disclosures that they don't get paid from 3d parties, but it's all done under the table. Some of the Seeking Alpha analysts are nobodies but can get high Google hits, rankings, and views based on catchy headlines in the opening title. The big commercial institutions have no problem handing over a suitcase of cash to them under the table if it makes their short positions make them millions or the long positions make millions when the trend changes. Notice how there's no more bashing article coming out this Sunday evening by Seeking Alpha. Last Sunday my phone kept going off with 5 bashing articles, now nothing. The fact that the analysts stopped the bashing, shows the trend has reversed. Now Mr. Wall Street Big Shot will hand over a suitcase of cash to have them write positive articles. Those are my opinions. The analysts are the Puppets of the commercial short or long trends. The good news is, the analysts will soon be working in our favour.
BIRTH OF A LONG-TERM UP-TREND !!! Major 2 Year Trend-line of JCP from March 2012 to March 2014 has been passed! Shorts, you have been warned! Cover while you can! Click on this Chart Link ...
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hAiZQI9T/
It could open high because during pre-market if it hits the low $7.00's many shorts that didn't get the opportunity to cover before will be doing so before it's back to $7.50 and above. So by the time it opens, could be higher. Shorts aren't stupid and they understand the power of momentum and when the trend has changed to up, it's time to cover. A combination of more covering and fund managers starting the week looking to add to portfolios buying and people that sold at $7.50 buying back. I would also bet, most of the large institutions that were shorting and covered will now buy long. The institutional investors don't get emotional and ego to be short only, they do what's best to make money! Just think how much money ego cost most of the shorts on this message board. Imagine if they put their ego aside and covered and $5.00 and bought long at $5.00. They would have made all that extra money shorting plus the long side pop up. I'm sure some did that, but not the ones on this message board. Lol. Put your ego's aside shorts, you can easily cover and make more money going long. That's why they call it trading. No falling in love or being loyal to only being bearish.
Should I Already Be In?
Good traders know that they need to buy the stocks that are going up. All strong stocks must start with strength, so following stocks that are making gains is a good way to find the winners of tomorrow.
There is, however, a fine line between buying the stock at the right time and getting in too late. Whether you are a long term trader or a very short term active trader, chasing a stock higher can lead to frustration as you get stopped out on the inevitable pull back.
Buying strength is best if you are doing it at the earliest stage of strength.
When analyzing a stock that you are considering for purchase, ask yourself a simple but essential question. "Should I already be in this stock?"
If you look at the chart and can see other recent buy signals that have resulted in moves higher, you have to question whether you are getting in to the stock with the most well informed investors or if you are buying with the general public. Are you buying wholesale, or retail?
Whether I am buying a stock to hold for months or taking a day trade to hold for a few hours, I want to be part of that wholesale group that is buying the stock just as it is starting to behave abnormally and make gains. The higher the stock rises, the farther it gets from support and the closer it gets to resistance. That means as the stock climbs, the potential reward for the risk of the trade falls.
I often see traders take entry signals that are valid if they take a very short term view of the chart. However, if they took a step back and looked at the bigger picture, they would see that the trend started some time ago and they are jumping on the bandwagon late.
This is why it is important to look at different time frames on the chart. If you do your analysis on daily charts, make sure you also look at the weekly chart. If you day trade off of the 2 minute chart, be sure to check the 15 or 30 minute chart to see if the strength you are following is the initial pop or if the trend is already well under way.
Doing this only takes seconds but the impact on performance can be massive. Just ask yourself the simple question, "Should I already be in this stock?"
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This lesson was from www.stockscores.com
They have great training and lessons.
The lesson above is pretty well saying, that the pro traders choose to get into a stock like JCP exactly at this point. They don't like to guess bottom and only buy after a breakout confirmation at early stages like JCP right now! Us courageous traders that bought at $5.00, is just bonus money for our courage :)
Analysts are always late to upgrade. There's always a lag between analysts and the stock price. I read a few articles on this phenomenon. When a stock is flying high and overbought, the analysts don't start downgrading until it already tanked huge. When a stock starts rebounding hard, the analysts are slow to upgrade. Analysts are pretty well useless as they just follow the price movement with a lag, that's why I like following the charts with technical analysis. The good news is that as soon as they start upgrading in the next few weeks, it wills serve as a catalyst to drive JCP up even higher (upgrades have already started). The next phase of upgrades before next earnings report is what will help drive JCP to $10.00 or higher. JC Penney stock also tends to do well in the spring when the weathers warm. I'd also like to mention, if you look at the historical chart of JCP since 1980, not once did JCP ever tank more than 2 years straight, and when it tanked that long, it was a HUGE Rebound. Right now JCP tanked 2 years and 2 months since earnings. Well due for a bullish trend shift! Also, buddy that posted that link about how stocks rarely go under $5.00 because some banks can't lend on margin then and it upsets the ecosystem and unlikely for a multi-billion dollar company stock to fall under $5.00, I owe you. It's one of the reasons I loaded the boat and remained courageous before earning report. I made a boat load in part thanks to your post!
Double Bottom Breakout Headed to $11.44 (200day Moving Average) or to $15.00 if passing the 200day MA. Worst case $10.00. The daily chart pivot at $7.00 is the new support level. Notice on Nov. 27 when it tried to tank from $7.45 it kissed $6.93 and pounced back up very fast forming a bullish hammer. It's very clear that $7.00 is the new support level, and even if we hit it again, it'll bounce up fast as the bears (shorts) cover with their tails between their legs. Also, fund managers realize these technical signs, and are looking to enter. That combined with short covering, it might not even test $7.00 again, especially with fundamentals that "WOW!'d" and Surprised Wall Street. Click on this link and click the chart to view the video. He does a great job explaining the chart and double bottom breakout and how it could hit $15.00 just based on technical analysis!
http://basicsmedia.com/double-bottom-in-j-c-penney-company-inc-nysejcp-will-the-rally-sustain-8794