Kaisenman, I think the DCVax-Direct opportunity of being best-in-class and first line treatment for multiple solid tumors is too big a business to pass up. So I think they take on the big pharma role of mfg/sales and try to capture the larger value there. Licensing and partnerships of Direct can be reserved for combination therapy and second line treatment options.
So the big question is how. I think a big pharma partnership on DCVax-L gives them time and money to make the hard transition from an outsourcing “everything” model to a becoming a global commercialization and sales company (big pharma). That means new mgmt, build out sales, etc… all above my pay grade.
My guess, $50/sh by 1/1/2023, assuming approval and a partnership.
Because approval means - DCVax-L gains steady adoption on a country by country basis globally during the next 12 months as the best-in-class, first line, standard of care treatment for GBM - DCVax is validated as the safe, efficacious, autologous immunotherapy platform. - DCVax-Direct narrative as a possible disrupter to current solid tumor cancer drug companies gets legs, so the market cap then begins to reflect this valuation because it is currently not.
Because Partnership means - A strategic decision was made that Big Pharma will end up paying manyfold more in a buyout a couple years later, than now. Because by then, all will know and shall bow to the dendritic cell and immune system. - It is not a “go-it-alone” but rather a gain-commercial-partner strategy. - Maybe a partnership strategy for DCVax-Direct, in the same way Merck licenses Keytruda for combination treatment clinical trial studies, as in 200 clinical trials across 30 tumor types.
Poor Man, I know what you mean, it's surreal. Why do we need a Cofer Black type person in a role for a small biotech company that is running an otherwise normal R&D clinical trial on cancer?
But I read Smith on Stocks talk about a pack of wolves that coordinate (Game Stop, Melvin Capital loses $6B shorting, but is saved by so called "competitors" Point 72 and Citron). Multi-hundred billion $$$ of money in cancer treating drugs are at risk of being compared to the most effective treatment of all, our body's own immune system, of course with autologous support through DCVax. This is within the backdrop of extreme wealth concentration in a few who want to keep it that way.
So maybe the question is not about Cofer Black working for NWBO, but instead it is about DCVax being a piece within a grander strategy of people trying to reform healthcare costs at a societal level and about the forces working against that. This thought too is surreal.
Hspooner, Taken is a great movie. Required watching for all young invincible adults traveling abroad. At least all parents should require it, especially if they are paying for any part of their kids trip.
Doc, Appreciation is my primary feeling regarding what we have here with NWBO. So much so this is the only stock I have recommended to family and to some coworkers and friends over the years.
And your point is important. There are not many opportunities in life, that some form of destiny presents and lays before us, to invest early in a company that are revolutionary and will change the landscape for generations and is something that is meaningful to society.
The DC strategy relative to others is becoming clearer and its position to maintain cellular health, whether it is destroying mutated cancer cells or DNA infected virus cells. In the end it is the same to our immune system.
I hope I am not too far off here. Whereas CART-T unnaturally create super soldier T-cells assigned with a single task, DCVax is superior. It gives the General (dendritic cell) the information on who the insurgents are to attack. The benefit here is the General decides how best to fight and win a guerrilla war, knowing they have access to the full breadth of weapons available in the immune system, not just T-cells. There are considerations like collateral damage and ability to identify a constantly adapting enemy. The immune system does that. And not just during the fight, but the benefits of this continue into deploying systemic defense mechanisms afterwards.
Thanks DD. Here is the scene Liam Neeson, an ex-CIA operative on the phone with human traffickers who kidnapped his daughter in the 2008 movie Taken, as adapted with Cofer Black talking to an anonymous NWBO market manipulator (MM):
Cofer: I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you are looking for ransom, I can tell you I don't have money. But what I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. For more information you can see my biography on the NWBO press release dated January 25, 2016. My name is Cofer Black.
MM: Hold on a second. [MM looks online]
Ambassador Black is internationally recognized in the intelligence community and brings to NW Bio extensive experience in cybersecurity, counterintelligence, and investigations and related matters. Ambassador Black served a 28-year career in the CIA, including as Director of the Counterterrorist Center managing 1,300 professionals and an annual budget in excess of $1 billion. In that capacity, he served as the focal point for the intelligence community, supervised the Interagency Counterterrorism Board, was responsible for CIA all-source analysis, directed all CIA counterterrorism operations abroad, including covert action, and defined global intelligence strategy for the U.S. Ambassador Black was awarded the Distinguished Intelligence Medal (the CIA’s highest award for achievement) as well as numerous other awards.
Cofer: I will say to you, if you let go now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will give you a personal tour of my 28-year career in CIA interrogation techniques.
MM: [after a long extended pause and the sound of a big gulp] Good luck.
[MM ignores Cofer. DCVax-L is reported as a breakthrough success. The following is an exaggerated but very possible in-person conversation that takes place in early 2022:]
MM: Please understand... it was all business. It wasn't personal.
Cofer: It was all personal to me, about the lives of patients and about fighting cancer.
[MM face turns white. Scene ends with the sound of a big gulp.]
Well said Nick. Everything in life is about filtering out the noise and being able to identify and understand the important message imbedded. GMP certification is an interim step on the path to drug approval. In the world of coming-soon, it is a check-the-box.
In a previous life it would be needless to say this but apparently not so obvious in today's world: Do not listen to con-artists, market manipulators, liars, and anti-science voices. They are trying to deceive you. Their goal is to change the angle of how you think and alter the course of what path you take.
There are no answers to that question that does not stir up either anger or sadness.
But what better home remedy to an unsolvable question than to support a good cause like trying to cure cancer, particularly Northwest, plus some music during the long stretches.
Flipper, Those are 3 excellent points on why a combination treatment including PD-L1 and DCVax would not be obvious to someone in the field, with regards to the non-obvious criteria for a patent claim application. Your insights and googling is very educational.
A true sentiment. Why do people bash the efforts of those who take on the biggest burdens of trying to cure GBM cancer? At worse be neutral, or at least be fair, or at best try every day to be your best.
Exactly. TLD without a comprehensive journal article(s) does not cause me to run outside, rip the shirt off my body and wave to my neighbors. We need an accompanying article.
MID, That is a very nice writing. The battle between cancer and the light that is our immune system, like in a war.
I recall a Lord of the Rings scene where Frodo says, “I wish it need not have happened in my time.” and Gandalf replies, “So do I, and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to do is decide what to do with the time that is given us.”
And Gandalf said later in the movie to Balrog at the bridge of Khazad-dum, right before conjuring a light and sacrificing himself to take down both bridge and Balrog: “I am a servant of the Secret Fire, wielder of the flame of Anor. You cannot pass. The dark fire will not avail you, flame of Udûn. Go back to the Shadow! You cannot pass.”
Maybe that is an analogy of what happens when cell mutation turns into cancer and the immune system fails for the patient. Or when investors bought NWBO at $5/sh only to see it fall into the shadows of $0.20/sh and into a quiet period. But light does return, like morning sun, like Gandalf the White, and we know how the rest of the story goes.
Where are we now? I think it is where Gandalf says to Aragorn, Legolas, and Gimli at Fangorn Forest, “I come back to you now at the turn of the tide.” Of course he cannot say “Coming soon.” Only Linda Powers can say that. Or did she already? Regardless I think we are at the turning of the tide, where doctors will be able to tell their patients that DCVAX partially matured dendritic cells are an effective personalized immune therapy for GBM cancer.
I surmise this is what's going on. Maybe there is a leak of good news or that journal publication will be reported next week, then this bear attack is the standard game plan of MM / short's and represents their last ditch to buy as many shares as possible.
I do think the NWBO advertisements in ABTA and the SNO are truly significant clues for us, that there "may" be a tentative approval by the FDA and that only industry folks who have had direct experience in premarket promoting of drugs with the FDA like MID can actually decipher. I suspect there will be a day, out of the blue and without any company PR, that some private fund manager will recognize that and do a major buy. And we on IHUB will be watching and wondering why the stock price just went up 1X on high volume.
Sparks, you had to bring up Clint Eastwood’s “Do You Feel Lucky”. Scene adapted for NWBO, a short seller thinks he can time when top line data will come out.
(Linda Powers walks up to the Short Seller on the ground reaching out to his iPhone, clearly showing a sell short 10,000 shares at market, on a Robinhood app.)
Eastwood: Uh uh uh. I know what you're thinking. Will I release top line data in December, January, or February? Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. The NEJM, the Lancet, or the JAMA? I kinda like the Lancet.
But being as this is a .44 magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?
(The punk decides he doesn't feel lucky, and pulls his hand back away from the phone. So Linda begins to walk away.)
Short Seller: Hey Linda! Tell me, I just got to know if I would've made money.
(This causes Linda to turn around. Linda stands over him; says nothing; then she calmly takes the .44 magnum and aims it at the Short Seller on the ground and pulls the trigger. The gun goes click, but there is no bullet. It turns out Linda does not know which month.)
Thanks for highlighting that. This loan is very positive for the company.
It is also much better for existing shareholders than a traditional financing with warrants would be. Warrants lock in today's low price plus some factor, ie low price means more shares, higher dilution.
What we have is a convertible note that takes place after a financing, that takes place after publishing TLD, ie it uses a future high stock price even after factoring in the 12% discount, ie resulting in a much, much lower dilution. And on top of that, the financing that takes place might not be immediately after TLD, for example if a partnership up front payment took place resulting in a financing at a much higher price still.
Congrats on your timely buy. NWBO is an opportunity for retail investors like us to front run future institutional buying after top line data comes out. Too often it is the other way around.
And the beauty of DCVAX's mechanism of action is that it is both a different way, as well as, promises to be a most simple, safe, and effective way to fight cancer. So similarly how can you verify the Earth is round, not flat, most simply without going out into space on a spaceship? View the horizon and note what you can see while standing on the ground. Then climb a tall tree and look at that same horizon. If you are able to see more, then that means there is some angle and curvature to Earth. Literally another example of why one needs to not be focused on a tree and needs to see the forest and horizon beyond.
Appreciate these insights from being in the industry, on this very significant clue.
When astro scientists look into a telescope into the sky and observe a blip or a disruption in the light that we are getting back, it is a clue. Is it a clue that Keanu Reeves has disrupted the Matrix? No. It is an observation that the disruption of light we are seeing is really a planet orbiting around that star. And from this significant clue, astro scientists conclude a planet exists, lights years away beyond our ability to see.
To all fellow long investors: Happy Thanksgiving! On behalf of turkeys everywhere, try vegetarian. If not, try pork. If can't, think asset allocation, try some diversifried chicken.
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