Sorry for the loss. Take care.

LOL

Here goes: A Flow Cytometry Analysis specialist, a Manufacturing Manager, and a Validation Engineer walk into a bar and orders drinks and ask for a menu.

Bartender: Sorry only drinks today, no food. The chef was fired yesterday, finger got stuck inside the dishwasher. Embarrassing.

Flow Cytometry Analysis Specialist: (proudly) Simple diagnosis. The finger is blocking the water from reaching the water level sensor that activates release of detergent.

Manufacturing Manager: The key is to remove the finger. That will remove the blockage.

Validation Engineer: And turn the dishwasher off for a minute. That will reset the sensors.

Bartender: No, no, no. The chef was fired because the dishwasher was pissed and was threatening to sue the owner. You guys must work for that AF guy.

Validation Engineer: That's right, we are his biotech investment advisors. How did you know?

Soj, 8 is also the symbol of infinity, so it is always a lucky number. Happy Year of the Tiger everyone. I am a convert. Now I do believe in luck. True luck is the result of hard work and patience. Meaning rewards tend to have a follow-on effect beyond one's original expectation.

Well I do have to admit, maybe 10% of my buying has been motivated by anger at the manipulators.

Thought I had found a bit of undiscovered info, oops.

But given this registry of glioblastoma patients, with IDH status, overall survival records, and with 274 patients in the population, I would think this 209 patients with wildtype IDH status can serve as a sufficiently large external control arm for our DCVax trial. Maybe that's all regulatory agencies need.

Yes information is available, just found this on overall survival data for IDH status for glioblastoma patients.

IDH mutation and MGMT promoter methylation in glioblastoma: results of a prospective registry, Dated 2015
https://www.oncotarget.com/article/5683/text/

274 IDH1/2 glioblastoma patients: mutation 56 patients, wildtype 209, NA 9

Flipper, please continue posting, breaks are fine. I always appreciate your posts. They are to the point and invaluable to me for navigating this labyrinth of information and, believe it or not, in surviving this waiting game. I take comfort that someone (you), every once in awhile, expresses a sufficient amount of properly worded frustration about results taking too long to release.

Didn't know that. I'm hopeful that's the plan, that after results we get sizable cash from a partnership to fund Direct into multiple cancers and explore other opportunities.

Indeed, and so many, too rich, details to list. Educational. An eye opener is Marc Cohodes' discussion about Citadel's role in the GameStop saga of Jan 2021. They are in all sides, of all trades, order flow, all types of transactions. And they can legally naked short because they are market makers.

Wow. That is the most visual and creative description and allusion to dark pools and private trading exchanges I have ever seen. A forrest, the party at a mansion, the mythological Minotaur (that eats young and maidens), and the centaur shooting arrows. Now I feel like I arrived to a gun fight holding a pair of chopsticks.

The Danish Dude has a video, in his website, an interview of Marc Cohodes about a case against Goldman Sachs and separately talks about Citadel in connection to the Gamestop situation of Jan 2021. Exactly as you say. Worth watching.
https://knowwhatyouhold.com/t/how-to-counter-the-threats/56

Flipper, Thanks for compiling and sharing these 22 points. I can literally now see that all ducks are in a row, and perhaps a lot more!


I think the cloud of dust building up in the background are new investors.

MiD, Excellent look into the long term survival rate at 5 years.

I especially like this

I agree. With success, NWBO's platform will be viewed from a mega trend investment perspective. How big is the opportunity, % realizable, # of years to achieve, and rate at which this market share is grabbed. Each is a gate and has a risk value. All are highly subjective variables, so to each, his or her own. And for those reasons and as you say, Smith is very conservative with assumptions and is why he takes his approach.

Exactly. Just like Tesla is valued for its platform for a future energy grid system and software, not just the sales of electric cars. It's the platform.

Smith's $5B to $10B valuation is for GBM only. He gives his thoughts on the valuation of Direct, separately. So he never gives us a forecast for a total NWBO valuation, but he hints it is much, much greater IMO. Here's my try at interpreting his numbers.

"Market capitalization could possibly reach $5 to $10 billion or more in coming years."
"Annual addressable market for ndGBM is $265 million in the UK, $1.3 billion in the US, $145 million in Canada and $1.5 billion in the EU (ex UK)."

- $3.2B ndGBM + (assume similar size) $3.2B rGBM = $6.4B
- assume 25% to 50% is realizable
- Using a 3X valuation multiple = $5 to $10B market cap
- For GBM only

"In the event that DCVax-L gains approval for ndGBM, it validates the dendritic cell therapeutic vaccine technology. The mechanism of action... might also work for any solid tumors [DCVax Direct]... potential for expansion of usage over a broad range of solid tumors resulting in commercial potential several magnitudes that of GBM... over years or decades."

- 1 magnitude = 10X
- For example purposes, let's assume "several magnitudes" means 30X
- that would calculate to a potential DCVax-Direct valuation of $150 to $300B or more.

Clik clik clik ... that guesstimate calculation of 5 yr survival is 6X that of placebo, a blowoff top success however viewed.

The 6X measures amplitude. The magnitude of impact and improvement would, I dare say, be exponentially greater.

Flipper, very thoughtful. Also this is powerful as in could basically be the opening statement to Big Pharma in the negotiation for a partnership or buyout.

Great summary, especially Direct as we don't discuss that much. Thanks for the Star Wars reference.

Thanks. A joke to complement an exciting 13% up day. It is a burst of green coming out from an ocean of red.

Edit: had to re-do the punchline, original was off
_____________________________________

For those who doubt Linda Powers. Know that she is The Most Interesting Woman in the World.

1. When she runs a marathon, her feet don't get blisters, her shoes do.
2. She once went to a financial psychic, to warn him.
3. When she negotiates a buyout with Merck, NWBO shares acquire Merck assets.

Smith on Stocks

Sojourner, nice chart as always. I think TLD takes off at $1.50.

It seemed the drop from $1.50 to $1 was on low volume trading, so I predict that once we break $1, the price should easily go back to $1.50 on the same low volume, as it retraces back. So the key to me is breaking the $1.

I think $1 can be quick with the momentum we see today and the larger expectations of TLD may reporting any day or week now. Plus given the blinded data to-date indicating results, at a minimum, will report a significantly successful trial, just the level of success is to be announced, people and family office investment funds will open new positions and or add significantly IMO.

For those who doubt Linda Powers. Know that she is The Most Interesting Woman in the World.

1. When she runs a marathon, her feet don't get blisters, her shoes do.
2. She once went to a financial psychic, to warn him.
3. When she negotiates a buyout with Merck, Merck shareholders are paid in NWBO shares.

Rare moments are the joy in life.

Another morning of waking up covered in snow at Hotel Park Bench, Groundhog Day.

Every morning repeats...
Old Lady: Can I help you?
Poor Man: No thank you, I'm waiting for TLD.
Old Lady: Aren't we all? Pass the bottle.

Maybe this cycle breaks on the morning of Tuesday, February 2, 2022, which is actual Groundhog Day.

I share your feeling on this build up of events leading to a crescendo in late February. Thanks for laying out your view of the timeline and events. Counting months, it makes sense to me. I am into the rabbit hole.

Appreciate your insight on FDA and advisory committees.

Indeed everything is in place and in motion now. Tracks a rumbling. Blockbuster results are being delivered on a freight train, moving with unstoppable momentum. My only hope is for retail to own as big a portion as possible because this is the one.

You really do the extra step. Thanks and this is great news.

I highlight your comment, All good things take time.
Indeed.
GLTU

MID, Your comment the FDA may decide to approve DCVax on its own without using an external Advisory committee got me thinking if there is another reason why the release of TLD is tied to the release of a journal.

Pondering here, let's just say the FDA has seen the results and wants to approve DCVax, but it has to maneuver around these considerations:

- DCVax trial is complex, not simple, and offers a new paradigm in treatment that will need explanation
- Potentially disrupts multiple revenue models across many big pharma companies
- These financial interests will push back and "how" can be unpredictable and from internal and external sources
- A release of TLD alone, a year ago, might have pressured the FDA to form an external Advisory committee to review early on and make opinions, that given above, might be crowded with conflicts of interests (maybe even sabotage).

So the FDA and NWBO, maybe early on and together, recognized the right answer is to approve DCVax outright and in a decisive manner. Take the 2021 year as a quiet period. Use it to simultaneously prepare a BLA and a journal. A journal backed by 60+ practitioners from a respected medical journal could be important "cya". Afterwards on release and publication, an FDA approval can be quick and concrete.

Doc, Yes it's a really important point to understand the DCVax platform and potential, where misunderstanding likely means many good intentioned long investors will sell out too early.

I am reminded of Amazon. If one thought Amazon was an online bookstore set up to avoid paying sales tax only, then after Borders and Barnes & Nobles lost market share, one would have thought "done" and would have sold their shares "too early". The key was to understand the "platform" was much bigger and was on the path to dominate e-commerce overall. There was the 1-Click patent, a key advantage, applied broadly for online buying, and allowed Amazon to collect data. There was the acquisition of the robotic company Kiva Systems for factory automation and Amazon's terminating other's use of it.

Nothing is obvious, and I am the first to admit seeing only events and missing patterns. So I do thank the many posters like yourself here on Ihub who point out things, like what is significant and explain things... for example the broad DCVax patents we have built up are emerging now, and the manufacturing potential of owning the Flaskwork's Baton and MicroDen technology and systems have a multiplier effect on quality, cost, and speed.

Worth repeating because people say "BLA" 3 times and get lost.

Yes it does.

Happy new year to you to. I think you are referring to the answer to Gollum's riddle, as so many years have passed by:

This thing all things devours;
Birds, beasts, trees, flowers;
Gnaws iron, bites steel;
Grinds hard stones to meal;
Slays king, ruins town,
And beats mountain down.

The answer is time.

But maybe what is being gnawed away here instead are the industries of chemotherapy and the massive mountains of market manipulators. And what we are actually seeing is the (long) process of remaking the future in cancer treatment.

Agree the price can be higher. If we follow a higher-efficacy-drug gets to charge a higher price model (like UK) I would be happy with that too.

On the other hand, I would like Northwest to be the responsible adult in the house, not too greedy.

Here's a 2014 article that discusses the DCVax-L drug price, seemingly from an interview with Linda Powers. Of course no definitive price is stated, just pieces of the puzzle.

From this, I can see how a $150K drug price, that is used by many on Ihub, can be derived. My vision of a scenario is:
- Maybe 9 to 12 total injections
- Yr 1: 5-8 injections, $100K price
- Yr 2: booster 2 injections, $25K price
- Yr 3: booster 2 injections, $25K price
Total $150K

DD so many great nuggets you compiled, gotta highlight for others this quote from Linda Powers from the 2019 ASM:

Thx for what you do DD. Really great.
The Marc Cohodes video is a must see treasure trove. Of course the Cramer video too, for those that haven't. That's a classic.