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Chattanooga, Tenn., Native to Leave CEO Post at Coca-Cola Enterprises
Apr 14, 2001 (Chattanooga Times/Free Press - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business
News via COMTEX) -- The leadership of Coca-Cola Enterprises is changing but
keeping its tie to Chattanooga.
The Atlanta-based company announced Thursday that Chattanooga native Summerfield
K. Johnston Jr. is retiring as chief executive officer and will be replaced by
Vice Chairman Lowry F. Kline, who calls Lookout Mountain home. Mr. Johnston will
remain chairman of the board of directors of the leading bottler of Coca-Cola.
John Alm will stay on as president and chief operating officer and will take a
seat on the board.
"You reach a point in your life where you feel you've been there and done that,"
said Mr. Johnston, Coca-Cola Enterprises' CEO for a decade. "I've been there and
done that. I'm almost 69, and it was just time to move on and take a little time
off. I'll probably spend a lot more time in Chattanooga than I have the last 10
years."
Coca-Cola Enterprises is the world's largest soft-drink bottler, selling about
three of every four bottles and cans of Coca-Cola in North America. The company,
which has 67,000 employees in North America and Europe, had sales of $14.8
billion and a net income of $233 million last year.
Mr. Johnston owns 8 percent of Coca-Cola Enterprises. He holds more than 33
million shares, which are worth almost $550 million, but sustained a paper loss
of $125 million when the stock dropped about $3.75 per share in 2000.
"I think it's critical going forward that we concentrate on building shareholder
value," said Mr. Kline, 61. "In the last analysis, that's how we'll be judged."
John Sicher, editor and publisher of New York-based Beverage Digest magazine,
said last year was a tough one worldwide for the entire Coca-Cola business. He
said Mr. Kline faces a number of challenges as he takes over Coca-Cola
Enterprises.
"There's the challenge of improving profitability and return on capital," Mr.
Sicher said. "There's the challenge of consumer taste expanding beyond
carbonated soft drinks and dealing with the logistical implications of that."
"(But) I think what Summerfield did as much as anything else was put together a
hugely talented team. One of CCE's great strengths is not only top management,
but mid-management and people on the ground. Lowry and John (Alm) have also
worked on it and have put together a company that has a reputation for excellent
in-market execution and a talented group of both officers and employees.
"From my perspective," Mr. Sicher said, "this company is well-positioned to meet
those challenges in a positive way."
Mr. Kline, who grew up in Loudon, Tenn., was a partner in the Chattanooga-based
Miller and Martin law firm for 29 years. He became general counsel for Johnston
Coca-Cola Bottling Group in 1981 and took a similar position with Coca-Cola
Enterprises 10 years later.
He left Miller and Martin in 1996 to become a senior vice president at Coca-Cola
Enterprises, where he became chief administrative officer in 1999 and vice
chairman and a board member last year. Mr. Kline brings to his new post "all the
qualities you want in a CEO," Mr. Johnston said.
"He's a very smart man with very good judgment and good people skills," Mr.
Johnston added. "He brings a breadth of knowledge of the company and what's
needed to make the company successful.
"Succession is most often successful when it's non-disruptive. Lowry and John
(Alm) are very close friends. They work well together and have for many years. I
don't see where that will change. They'll make a great operating team."
Mr. Kline saluted his predecessor, who represents the third generation of his
family in the Coca-Cola bottling industry. Franchised bottling of Coca-Cola
originated in Chattanooga in 1899.
"Summerfield was the first person who recognized that Coca-Cola's bottling
system needed consolidation," Mr. Kline said. "He set himself to doing that, and
you see the result. CCE is a $15 billion company and has 75 percent of North
America. Getting that done was due primarily to his foresight and savvy."
By Bob Gary Jr.
To see more of the Chattanooga Times/Free Press, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.timesfreepress.com
(c) 2001, Chattanooga Times/Free Press, Tenn. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.
What a strange sense of deja vu. It was fall 1998 when the Nasdaq was last below 2,000. That also seems to be the last time anyone cared about stocks like Coke and Pepsi. What could be more retro than the cola wars?
While most of us were blinded by tech, however, those wars took a dramatic turn. In 1998, Coke's fizzy share price of about 50 times earnings reflected the belief that it could do no wrong, while Pepsi's P/E of about 25 reflected the belief that it was the also-ran. Yet Coke, which hit a high of $88 in the summer of 1998, now hovers at $48. Pepsi, on the other hand, has bubbled up some 40% in the past year, to $44--within spitting distance of Coke. Since First Call's 2001 earnings estimates for the cola kings are just a penny apart, Coke's current price of 29 times next year's earnings estimate is just a sliver higher than Pepsi's P/E of 27.
On the Street, the consensus is clear. "Pepsi is it," says Bob Morris, director of equity investments at Lord Abbett. But as we've seen, when wisdom becomes conventional, it's time to ask questions.
Step back a few years to understand why the conventional wisdom got it wrong last time. From 1997 to 1999, Pepsi gave itself a makeover--a very Coke-like makeover--by spinning off its fast-food restaurant business and some of its bottling operations. Today Pepsi, like Coke, owns less than 50% of its bottlers, which means that this low-margin, capital-intensive business isn't consolidated in Pepsi's financials. That has helped Pepsi's return on equity almost double, from 17% in 1996 to 30% now.
Nor is soda, where Pepsi's worldwide market share still lags significantly behind Coke's, the only battleground anymore. While Coke was drowning in profits from sugar water, Pepsi began pushing noncarbonated drinks like Aquafina water. That business is now growing faster than soda. And the heart of Pepsi is Frito-Lay, the company's huge snack-food business, which accounts for 63% of revenues and 66% of operating profits. The fact that people seem to be grazing more than eating should help Frito-Lay keep growing. In 2000, Pepsi's operating profit rose 12% on an 8% gain in revenues.
Fans say the stock has room to run. "There's certainly been a lot of appreciation, but the stock came from levels that it shouldn't have been at in the first place," says Keith Patriquin, an analyst at Loomis Sayles. Much of the optimism stems from Pepsi's roughly $14 billion acquisition of Quaker Oats (which it snatched from Coke's jaws). Pepsi gets Gatorade; it also gets Quaker's oat expertise, which may help Pepsi find our collective sweet tooth. "If Pepsi handles Quaker well, there could be a lot more upside here," says Jeff Lindsey, a portfolio manager at Putnam who owns Pepsi.
It's a much grimmer picture at Coke. Operating income after charges sank 7% last year (before charges it grew 7%), as revenues rose just 3%. Soda has become a sluggish business, and Coke is playing catch-up to Pepsi in noncarbonated drinks. Plus, Coke has been marred by restructuring, a discrimination lawsuit, and management turmoil. Some even question whether Coke was ever really that fabulous: During the glory years a portion of its growth came from selling parts of its bottling operations.
Coke was supposed to have mopped up the mess by now. "In 2000 we put the difficult issues behind us, so we can do the great things in 2001," said CEO Doug Daft in late February. At the same time Coke announced a few things the Street didn't think were so great, including $300 million to $500 million of "strategic one-time marketing initiatives." ("One time"? Please!) Then, in early March, Coke President and COO Jack Stahl abruptly resigned. That's when Caroline Levy at UBS Warburg cut her target on Coke to $52--below her $56 target on Pepsi. "Coke can't buy a friend," says Jon Lee, who runs hedge fund Hollister Management.
It's tempting to think that all the bad news has spilled. Maybe not. Last year Coke's volume grew just 4%; it's promising 6% to 7% volume growth this year. Most say no way. "I don't think anyone outside Atlanta thinks that Coke can achieve the long-term growth it has promised," says Patriquin.
Coke's relationship with its bottlers could be even more problematic. Critics allege that during the 1990s, Coke starved its bottlers to squeeze out profits. Now they're struggling, which affects the health of Coke's business and its bottom line. The income that Coke books from its bottlers plunged from $155 million in 1997 to a loss of $289 million in 2000.
All this is why skeptics say that Coke still looks expensive. The stock may be cheap relative to its 1998 high, but it's still priced at two to three times the company's growth rate, depending on whose estimates you trust. Although Coke is highly profitable--in 2000 its operating margin before charges was 25% of revenues--those margins could come under pressure as Coke spends in search of growth. Listen to Coke owner Warren Buffett, who wrote in Berkshire Hathaway's annual report, "We see our equity portfolio as only mildly attractive." Pessimists aren't expecting Coke to crash, but investing in it now could be akin to water torture. "The bigger risk is that its multiple will just erode slowly," says senior analyst Richard Larsen at Lord Abbett.
Not that Pepsi is a bargain. A big acquisition like Quaker isn't easy to digest, and Pepsi isn't cheap relative to its projected earnings growth rate of around 13%. But for the first time in years, stable consumer-products companies are in vogue. Just think: a real company that sells real products to real people--and actually makes money doing it. Maybe Pepsi is the real thing.
By Bethany McLean
What a strange sense of deja vu. It was fall 1998 when the Nasdaq was last below 2,000. That also seems to be the last time anyone cared about stocks like Coke and Pepsi. What could be more retro than the cola wars?
While most of us were blinded by tech, however, those wars took a dramatic turn. In 1998, Coke's fizzy share price of about 50 times earnings reflected the belief that it could do no wrong, while Pepsi's P/E of about 25 reflected the belief that it was the also-ran. Yet Coke, which hit a high of $88 in the summer of 1998, now hovers at $48. Pepsi, on the other hand, has bubbled up some 40% in the past year, to $44--within spitting distance of Coke. Since First Call's 2001 earnings estimates for the cola kings are just a penny apart, Coke's current price of 29 times next year's earnings estimate is just a sliver higher than Pepsi's P/E of 27.
On the Street, the consensus is clear. "Pepsi is it," says Bob Morris, director of equity investments at Lord Abbett. But as we've seen, when wisdom becomes conventional, it's time to ask questions.
Step back a few years to understand why the conventional wisdom got it wrong last time. From 1997 to 1999, Pepsi gave itself a makeover--a very Coke-like makeover--by spinning off its fast-food restaurant business and some of its bottling operations. Today Pepsi, like Coke, owns less than 50% of its bottlers, which means that this low-margin, capital-intensive business isn't consolidated in Pepsi's financials. That has helped Pepsi's return on equity almost double, from 17% in 1996 to 30% now.
Nor is soda, where Pepsi's worldwide market share still lags significantly behind Coke's, the only battleground anymore. While Coke was drowning in profits from sugar water, Pepsi began pushing noncarbonated drinks like Aquafina water. That business is now growing faster than soda. And the heart of Pepsi is Frito-Lay, the company's huge snack-food business, which accounts for 63% of revenues and 66% of operating profits. The fact that people seem to be grazing more than eating should help Frito-Lay keep growing. In 2000, Pepsi's operating profit rose 12% on an 8% gain in revenues.
Fans say the stock has room to run. "There's certainly been a lot of appreciation, but the stock came from levels that it shouldn't have been at in the first place," says Keith Patriquin, an analyst at Loomis Sayles. Much of the optimism stems from Pepsi's roughly $14 billion acquisition of Quaker Oats (which it snatched from Coke's jaws). Pepsi gets Gatorade; it also gets Quaker's oat expertise, which may help Pepsi find our collective sweet tooth. "If Pepsi handles Quaker well, there could be a lot more upside here," says Jeff Lindsey, a portfolio manager at Putnam who owns Pepsi.
It's a much grimmer picture at Coke. Operating income after charges sank 7% last year (before charges it grew 7%), as revenues rose just 3%. Soda has become a sluggish business, and Coke is playing catch-up to Pepsi in noncarbonated drinks. Plus, Coke has been marred by restructuring, a discrimination lawsuit, and management turmoil. Some even question whether Coke was ever really that fabulous: During the glory years a portion of its growth came from selling parts of its bottling operations.
Coke was supposed to have mopped up the mess by now. "In 2000 we put the difficult issues behind us, so we can do the great things in 2001," said CEO Doug Daft in late February. At the same time Coke announced a few things the Street didn't think were so great, including $300 million to $500 million of "strategic one-time marketing initiatives." ("One time"? Please!) Then, in early March, Coke President and COO Jack Stahl abruptly resigned. That's when Caroline Levy at UBS Warburg cut her target on Coke to $52--below her $56 target on Pepsi. "Coke can't buy a friend," says Jon Lee, who runs hedge fund Hollister Management.
It's tempting to think that all the bad news has spilled. Maybe not. Last year Coke's volume grew just 4%; it's promising 6% to 7% volume growth this year. Most say no way. "I don't think anyone outside Atlanta thinks that Coke can achieve the long-term growth it has promised," says Patriquin.
Coke's relationship with its bottlers could be even more problematic. Critics allege that during the 1990s, Coke starved its bottlers to squeeze out profits. Now they're struggling, which affects the health of Coke's business and its bottom line. The income that Coke books from its bottlers plunged from $155 million in 1997 to a loss of $289 million in 2000.
All this is why skeptics say that Coke still looks expensive. The stock may be cheap relative to its 1998 high, but it's still priced at two to three times the company's growth rate, depending on whose estimates you trust. Although Coke is highly profitable--in 2000 its operating margin before charges was 25% of revenues--those margins could come under pressure as Coke spends in search of growth. Listen to Coke owner Warren Buffett, who wrote in Berkshire Hathaway's annual report, "We see our equity portfolio as only mildly attractive." Pessimists aren't expecting Coke to crash, but investing in it now could be akin to water torture. "The bigger risk is that its multiple will just erode slowly," says senior analyst Richard Larsen at Lord Abbett.
Not that Pepsi is a bargain. A big acquisition like Quaker isn't easy to digest, and Pepsi isn't cheap relative to its projected earnings growth rate of around 13%. But for the first time in years, stable consumer-products companies are in vogue. Just think: a real company that sells real products to real people--and actually makes money doing it. Maybe Pepsi is the real thing.
By Bethany McLean
New Economy vs New World Order
chnic: the money men are all from old money
(in fact, a previous poster was kidding about a two headed monster.. when you consider how closely they intermarry.. lol).. Rothschild, Warburg, Rockefeller, Oppenheimer, JP Morgan (chase), etc... Hey, recognize any of those names from the talking heads on CNBC and the other financial channels? You know, the same talking heads who upgraded a stock at 200, but who are now advising you to sell at 10, because the outlook is cloudy for a quarter or two?
You'll note that the 'destruction & chaos' in the market that you refer to has NOT hit the NYSE.. it never did close in bear market territory. (yet. The bankers might need to kill more business to achieve their ultimate goal).
I suspect that it's because the NYSE was not the target of Greenspan and the bankers. They already have the business (debt) of all those companies.
However, they did not have the business of the internet.
Angels, venture capital companies, incubators, and bootstrappers owned the new world economy.
The bankers wouldn't touch them because they have a myopic view of the world.
What collateral did a dot com have to offer? 'hits'? 'eyeballs'? What would they repossess if the loans went sour? Servers? Technology moves so fast that there is no value auctioning year old equipment.
Besides, the only 'servers' that the fatcat bankers knew were the ones who lit their cigars and heated their brandy in their private clubs.
They didn't realize that eyeballs were the same as window shoppers. They didn't realize that a percentage of window shoppers will eventually buy and become repeat customers.
They didn't realize that a computer screen (and now, a laptop, a pda, and a cell phone) would become personal, portable shopping malls and bank branches, and brokerage houses, and Dick Tracy-like two way communications devices.
Bankers were happy to carry bonds to build a shopping mall with brick and mortar, but they were highly suspicious of an ethermall. After all, to them ether was the stuff Holmes used to inhale.
This is all evidenced by the fact that the internet explosion took them by surprise.
Remember, a very young Alan Greenspan was one of the people who decided to save memory space in line code by using two digit numbers for the year, instead of four. Greenspan himself was concerned enough about the potential effect of y2k that he made sure there was excess cash in the system, correct? The old money bankers had no idea that e commerce, b2b, b2c, b2g, etc would take off so quickly. They thought it was so shaky it would fall apart.
They were half right. But they were also half wrong.
Suddenly, billionaires were created. Money was changing hands. Wealthy new, young entrepreneurs (with vision) were willing to bankroll newer, younger entrepeneurs who capitalized on yesterday's new inventions. New money suddenly threatened to become debt AND equity financing (that's all there is). They provided liquidity. LIQUIDITY! They used their asymmetrical information (they are the first to know if a new technology is going to make it, or fail) and began to form their cyber version of the Japanese kereitsu.
But wait.. isn't that the bankers' job?
Didn't the bankers try and fail time and again to control the currency of the nation, until they crammed the Federal Reserve down the throats of Congress?
Bumps in the road? Of course. Scams? of course. Fools gold? a bubble? Of course! But peel back the negatives that stopped the bankers from backing the internet start ups, and you'll discover the internet revolution. sans the problems, it changes everything. Permanently.
The bankers discovered it, too, but they were late to the party.
So they did the only thing they could. They choked the economy, under the guise of fighting phantom inflation. Zero growth, that'll teach 'em. Negative growth, if they have to, but the bankers will do whatever they have to do to gain control.
Pure dot coms were doomed (and a lot of them WERE only a bubble). But there was collateral damage as well. Hybrids. Those who helped brick and mortar businesses to save millons. Consumers. Biotech breakthroughs. It doesn't matter. They [the bankers] have not yet developed a monetary smart bomb that leaves the buildings standing, and just kills the enemy. They carpet bombed everything. After all.. where will we turn if everything goes to he11 in a handbasket? Why, the big bankers, of course.
But fear not.
You're right. The new economy leaders have had a taste of true freedom, and they will not quit.
It is a battle of the New Economy vs the New World Order.
The planes are equipped with large capacitors that store up a huge, one shot burst of electricity, that literally melts most of the electronic components. Total destruction of the chips is what’s needed to ensure complete protection of retrieving data from them. If the components are melted beyond depiction, combined with a good sledge hammering to boot, I don't think copying would be a big concern. Most of the switches were made in Taiwan anyway ..ararar
I think the new government contracts will not be to change the technology but in preparation of the quickly developing cold war. Covert opps, maybe the excuse needed to revitalize Star Wars….
The US has her solders back now we can lay the BB out on the table and start talking economic repercussions and increased military presence to a country that believe we are totally in the wrong as well as trespassing. All for a plane that really means nothing to us other than it’s FACE value.
By: 2_Steel_Balls 04-14-01 at 10:21 am
Reply To: None Post # 72001
Happy Easter to everybody
Friday's action was nice, very typial for bear market explosive rallies. I would like to talk about the general market for a minute, to explain the rally we had last week, and possibly to try to pedict where it is going.
last week's rally took by surpise all the traders on all the boards I talk to. and Ianalyzed the forces in the market(like a weather system) and came to some very intresting conclusions
1) The market was so oversold, that nobody was left to sell volontarily, margin was forced out .
2) People who sold positions lastyear, long tem positions such as Yahoo and AOL , who bought the stocks a ot lower, sold at a profit, maybe they bought AOL at $10, it reached 100, and they sold say at 50, on tyhe way down. so they have to pay taxes
3) these people bougt back in january into the bull trap rally.
4)since they thought bthat the bear market was over, they kept their new positions, knowing that they had to sell positions to pay taxe by april
5) the situation got so out ofhand in March, that they had to get out due to marketconditions and margin calls earlier than they would havve hoped, with bigger losses.
6) by last week, the market lost all its individual sellers, and institutions were left to guard the milk
7) all of a sudden, we had a situation where sellers were a small force, the short sellers got nervous, and started covering slolwly.
8) people put money into IRA accounts, andthat poured billions into mutual funds.
so what happens when we are still in a bad bear market, where nobody believes that the economy has any signs of recovery, and they are scared to buy?
the individuals freez. funds spend IRA monew causing a big rally. sellers are gone cause they lost their money, the come the shorts, who made tons of money, and they cover.
this recovery gets out of hand, whensome ANALyst realizes that (oh' things are so bad they cant get worse, so I call a"bottom"). this adds fuel to the unbalancded fight between sellers and buyers, and we get a rally.
now, shorts are used to these rallies failing, and short all the way up, loosing andd over5ing higher. then the chinese situation seems to resolve itself (I will elaborate later on that
anyway this rally looked like it is thereal thing.
my analysis shows that we got out of the oversold situation.
fundamentals ar still terrible
earnings are ahead of us, and they are UGLY
IRA money is done buying
we are still in a bear market.
looking at charts, 1950 nasdaq is a good place for the rally to sotp for many reasons, with a slight possibility for 2350 as the top. (great shorting opportunity if we getther.
now we are left with a decision to sell or roll the dice for 2350. that is all. no new bull market nonsense.
I expect monday to open slightli positive, and drift down towqards theclose. the close will be violently down.
now if we break higher , say 2000 on monday, then I expect 2350, and the play will be to the short side.
be carful guys. none of this analysis has to do with AMD specifically, but AMD is part of the market.
About the Chinese situation.
After the crews arraived safely, and the celebrations are over, and the medals are awarded to the pilot, we have to sit down and reflect
1) the Pentagon has a new reality, Chinese are phisically interfering with US flights in international waters. they consider the enatire area to be chinese.
2) The chinese still hold the 300 million dollar plane
3) the Taiwan situation is getting tense
4) they have to decide if to Sell Taiwan the technology they want , and the chines oppose it very much, some missile defense system mounted on boats/ships
I think that after the celebrations are over, the chinese situation will get worse.
I think that earnings are going to be terrible, even if the market (very unlikely) can shrug them off.
IRA money is done buying
People will not buy the higher prices, when stocks were 30-80 % lower last week
leyoffs, FED not doing didly
Inflation in the horizon, oil prices higher
The auto industry, that suprisingly showed nice growth last quarter, (besides american cars) BMW had a great quarter. I believe that this is due to agressive leases expiring, and new ones starting.
The situation in the middle east is about to explode into a war
honestly, can anyone here on this board show me 1 reason for a market recovery? I mean a sign of recovery that already started in the industry, not stock market related.
I plan to put my money in the short side, possibly QQQ shorts or Intel short/ puts.
Care to elaborate?.. .. .. ..
Sounds like a boon to technology based business, IMO.
Another Good read...IMO
No, I don't think this is a "sucker's rally", but it could just be that we don't mean the same thing by the term. To me a "sucker's rally" is a 1 (or 2) day spike (generally on low volume) followed by an immediate reversal back down. No long actually manages to make money on these as they reverse direction by the time longs are even able to establish a position. This rally, however, hasn't followed that pattern. 5 of the past 6 days have been up days. It has stretched out enough that even people jumping in long today (day 6) were able to make a profit by EOD. The Naz is up 20% from its low on 4/3/01. Let me scale that 20% rise to a figure that is more easily digestible -- it's the equivalent on a % basis of a Dow climb from 10,000 to 12,000. Though people buying at those absolute numbers might be "suckers" (based on valuation), I don't think anyone would call that large a movement a "suckers rally".
Do I think the NASDAQ has hit its ultimate "bottom" and is headed only up from here? Nope. Neither do I believe that it is definitely heading to new lows. We're on a cusp right now, and there just isn't enough data to know for certain which side of the fence we're gonna fall on. Many economists think that our economy is bottoming out and headed for recovery. Just as many others think that we're barely on the way into a recession and haven't yet seen the worse. There are 2 problems one faces in trying to figure out which way we're leaning:
1) the economic numbers we're seeing right now support both positions -- one's interpretation depends entirely on which indicators one chooses to give greater weighting. One's weighting choices will be naturally be affected by the beliefs one has walking into the situation (i.e. are we headed out or still on the way in), and the indicators will thus be interpreted in a self-fulfilling manner. Just as importantly, however:
2) Near-term actions by the Fed, the tax cut in Congress, and Bush's fiscal and trade policies are going to significantly impact the result as well. It's impossible to clearly call recession or recovery right now as the economy is still a work in progress.
With 3 rate cuts under its belt, however, the Fed has already set the tone for what direction the market is ultimately heading -- upwards. Don't fight the Fed. But that doesn't mean that we're headed straight there. Just as the NASDAQ continued to spike upward on [rearview] good news even after 2 or 3 or 4 rate hikes, the market will continue to drop on [rearview] bad news despite the fact that the Fed is already aggressively easing.
We're still in a bear market -- hence we're still gonna be hit by bouts of short selling and whacks from bad economic or earnings reports. My experience with prior bear markets, however, has been that the stock market bottoms a few quarters before earnings and economic numbers clearly indicate that we're on the way out. I would even go so far as to say that such a market bottoming is a key thing that actually CAUSES the economy to improve. I think that many people trading the market today don't realize that, and instead believe that the stock market won't improve until the economic and earnings numbers clearly suggest a turnaround. Those people will be short the market at the bottom, just as they probably were still long the market last March despite Greenie having already hiked rates a bunch of times.
We're far enough into the economic downturn (personally, I think its a recession but I'll call it a downturn since the Fed, SecTreas, and President haven't called it a recession yet) that we could be seeing the leading edge of that reversal in the market. Such reversals generally don't nail the bottom right the first time -- they give it a shot, fail and retrace a little, try to rally again, and on and on until they finally get it right. What we've been experiencing for the past week or so, IMO, is exactly one of those "bear market rallies" -- not a "sucker's rally". Recognizing that is still just a booby prize though. Even if one is certain that the Naz will go down another 10% again -- will it retrace 10% from 1961?, or will it climb to 2300 first before retracing that 10%? (note - I just picked those numbers/percentages at random -- they don't represent any prediction or T/A point I'm aware of). Same problem -- in reverse -- that we on the buy side have been facing with regard to stocks we like and know will be significantly higher in a year... significantly higher than what?
Why else do I think this is a "real" rally as opposed to a "suckers" rally? Plenty. A week or so before the rally began, the put-call ratio hit new highs, the VIX was consistently in the 30's, and the ARMS index signaled a market reversal was coming in the next 7-15 days. Market sentiment (as measured subjectively by reading message board posts) was about as negative as I had ever seen it -- every idiot and his brother was all of a sudden an expert on shorting and was calling for the NASDAQ to drop to 1100. Oddly enough, many of the posters that had been posting short and bashing messages since last year all of a sudden became silent -- but the "idiot-shorts" that have hit the boards as of late were so busy listening to themselves talk that they didn't notice it. At a certain point, it becomes more profitable for the institutions and MM's to play the shorts for suckers than it does for them to continue to try to play the longs. When bearishness is that high, such a time has probably come.
All of the recent "sucker's rally" posts on various message boards yesterday made me think of a movie I saw on cable the other night -- "Disclosure". In case you haven't seen it, its a "corporate thriller" (from the Michael Crichton book) where Demi Moore sets Michael Douglas up for a fall with a bogus sexual harassment charge. At the end -- one of my favorite lines from any movie -- Michael Douglas says to Demi Moore, "did it ever occur to you that perhaps YOU were the one that was set up?"
I honestly don't know what direction the Naz is gonna go next week. Based on what I'm seeing right now, I expect maybe a gap up, then a little profit taking early in the week (some of us already have huge gains from the past week, and there are too many people expecting the markets to rally now that tax selling is over). Taking a little courage from that, the retail shorts will pile back in. The institutions will start buying in again cheaper at that point and take the shorts for a ride. Ask me again Monday and I'll probably have a different answer though...
Continued...
About the Chinese situation.
After the crews arraived safely, and the celebrations are over, and the medals are awarded to the pilot, we have to sit down and reflect
1) the Pentagon has a new reality, Chinese are phisically interfering with US flights in international waters. they consider the enatire area to be chinese.
2) The chinese still hold the 300 million dollar plane
3) the Taiwan situation is getting tense
4) they have to decide if to Sell Taiwan the technology they want , and the chines oppose it very much, some missile defense system mounted on boats/ships
I think that after the celebrations are over, the chinese situation will get worse.
I think that earnings are going to be terrible, even if the market (very unlikely) can shrug them off.
IRA money is done buying
People will not buy the higher prices, when stocks were 30-80 % lower last week
leyoffs, FED not doing didly
Inflation in the horizon, oil prices higher
The auto industry, that suprisingly showed nice growth last quarter, (besides american cars) BMW had a great quarter. I believe that this is due to agressive leases expiring, and new ones starting.
The situation in the middle east is about to explode into a war
honestly, can anyone here on this board show me 1 reason for a market recovery? I mean a sign of recovery that already started in the industry, not stock market related.
I plan to put my money in the short side, possibly QQQ shorts or Intel short/ puts.
I agree with this opinion..
Friday's action was nice, very typial for bear market explosive rallies. I would like to talk about the general market for a minute, to explain the rally we had last week, and possibly to try to pedict where it is going.
last week's rally took by surpise all the traders on all the boards I talk to. and Ianalyzed the forces in the market(like a weather system) and came to some very intresting conclusions
1) The market was so oversold, that nobody was left to sell volontarily, margin was forced out .
2) People who sold positions lastyear, long tem positions such as Yahoo and AOL , who bought the stocks a lot lower, sold at a profit, maybe they bought AOL at $10, it reached 100, and they sold say at 50, on the way down. so they have to pay taxes
3) these people bougt back in january into the bull trap rally.
4)since they thought that the bear market was over, they kept their new positions, knowing that they had to sell positions to pay taxe by april
5) the situation got so out of hand in March, that they had to get out due to market conditions and margin calls earlier than they would have hoped, with bigger losses.
6) by last week, the market lost all its individual sellers, and institutions were left to guard the milk
7) all of a sudden, we had a situation where sellers were a small force, the short sellers got nervous, and started covering slolwly.
8) people put money into IRA accounts, and that poured billions into mutual funds.
so what happens when we are still in a bad bear market, where nobody believes that the economy has any signs of recovery, and they are scared to buy?
the individuals freez. funds spend IRA money causing a big rally. sellers are gone cause they lost their money, the come the shorts, who made tons of money, and they cover.
this recovery gets out of hand, when some ANALyst realizes that (oh' things are so bad they cant get worse, so I call a "bottom"). this adds fuel to the unbalancded fight between sellers and buyers, and we get a rally.
now, shorts are used to these rallies failing, and short all the way up, loosing and over 5ing higher. then the chinese situation seems to resolve itself (I will elaborate later on that
anyway this rally looked like it is the real thing.
my analysis shows that we got out of the oversold situation.
fundamentals ar still terrible
earnings are ahead of us, and they are UGLY
IRA money is done buying
we are still in a bear market.
looking at charts, 1950 nasdaq is a good place for the rally to sotp for many reasons, with a slight possibility for 2350 as the top. (great shorting opportunity if we getther.
now we are left with a decision to sell or roll the dice for 2350. that is all. no new bull market nonsense.
I expect monday to open slightli positive, and drift down towqards theclose. the close will be violently down.
now if we break higher , say 2000 on monday, then I expect 2350, and the play will be to the short side.
be carful guys. none of this analysis has to do with AMD specifically, but AMD is part of the market.
Be VEEEEEEEEWWWWY quiet,
we huntin wabbits!
Chattanooga, Tenn., Native to Leave CEO Post at Coca-Cola Enterprises
Apr 14, 2001 (Chattanooga Times/Free Press - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business
News via COMTEX) -- The leadership of Coca-Cola Enterprises is changing but
keeping its tie to Chattanooga.
The Atlanta-based company announced Thursday that Chattanooga native Summerfield
K. Johnston Jr. is retiring as chief executive officer and will be replaced by
Vice Chairman Lowry F. Kline, who calls Lookout Mountain home. Mr. Johnston will
remain chairman of the board of directors of the leading bottler of Coca-Cola.
John Alm will stay on as president and chief operating officer and will take a
seat on the board.
"You reach a point in your life where you feel you've been there and done that,"
said Mr. Johnston, Coca-Cola Enterprises' CEO for a decade. "I've been there and
done that. I'm almost 69, and it was just time to move on and take a little time
off. I'll probably spend a lot more time in Chattanooga than I have the last 10
years."
Coca-Cola Enterprises is the world's largest soft-drink bottler, selling about
three of every four bottles and cans of Coca-Cola in North America. The company,
which has 67,000 employees in North America and Europe, had sales of $14.8
billion and a net income of $233 million last year.
Mr. Johnston owns 8 percent of Coca-Cola Enterprises. He holds more than 33
million shares, which are worth almost $550 million, but sustained a paper loss
of $125 million when the stock dropped about $3.75 per share in 2000.
"I think it's critical going forward that we concentrate on building shareholder
value," said Mr. Kline, 61. "In the last analysis, that's how we'll be judged."
John Sicher, editor and publisher of New York-based Beverage Digest magazine,
said last year was a tough one worldwide for the entire Coca-Cola business. He
said Mr. Kline faces a number of challenges as he takes over Coca-Cola
Enterprises.
"There's the challenge of improving profitability and return on capital," Mr.
Sicher said. "There's the challenge of consumer taste expanding beyond
carbonated soft drinks and dealing with the logistical implications of that."
"(But) I think what Summerfield did as much as anything else was put together a
hugely talented team. One of CCE's great strengths is not only top management,
but mid-management and people on the ground. Lowry and John (Alm) have also
worked on it and have put together a company that has a reputation for excellent
in-market execution and a talented group of both officers and employees.
"From my perspective," Mr. Sicher said, "this company is well-positioned to meet
those challenges in a positive way."
Mr. Kline, who grew up in Loudon, Tenn., was a partner in the Chattanooga-based
Miller and Martin law firm for 29 years. He became general counsel for Johnston
Coca-Cola Bottling Group in 1981 and took a similar position with Coca-Cola
Enterprises 10 years later.
He left Miller and Martin in 1996 to become a senior vice president at Coca-Cola
Enterprises, where he became chief administrative officer in 1999 and vice
chairman and a board member last year. Mr. Kline brings to his new post "all the
qualities you want in a CEO," Mr. Johnston said.
"He's a very smart man with very good judgment and good people skills," Mr.
Johnston added. "He brings a breadth of knowledge of the company and what's
needed to make the company successful.
"Succession is most often successful when it's non-disruptive. Lowry and John
(Alm) are very close friends. They work well together and have for many years. I
don't see where that will change. They'll make a great operating team."
Mr. Kline saluted his predecessor, who represents the third generation of his
family in the Coca-Cola bottling industry. Franchised bottling of Coca-Cola
originated in Chattanooga in 1899.
"Summerfield was the first person who recognized that Coca-Cola's bottling
system needed consolidation," Mr. Kline said. "He set himself to doing that, and
you see the result. CCE is a $15 billion company and has 75 percent of North
America. Getting that done was due primarily to his foresight and savvy."
By Bob Gary Jr.
To see more of the Chattanooga Times/Free Press, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.timesfreepress.com
(c) 2001, Chattanooga Times/Free Press, Tenn. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News.
And Happy Easter to all of you too. Paule EOM
NYC what about ko options? May 40 put to far a stretch? Look at KO I told everybody to buy at 35 and it hit 60 now I missed its inevitable fall but am thinking maybe another 5 bucks isn’t out of line what about you?
Go another strike price out cause if it hits 40 the 35 puts will be higher as well. Received bad CNBC coverage by analysts telling everybody to buy Pepsi co. Stock up today but that will last as long as this investor panic of "I dont want to miss the rebound" continues.
HEY EVRYBODY CHASING SWINGS IS A GOOD WAY TO GIVE NYC AND PAULE ALL YOUS MONEY.
What I know and what Pre knows are two different things. He left during the fighting. I took sides remember! Pre stayed Neutral.
NOW that being said, I need to get in tough with Pre to go shooting a couple more times before we go kill the B@C record Boars. Our trip is only 30 days till travel and 32 till bang bang and squeeeeeel.
I Pre isn’t doing the loan thing, he’s probably like me getting ready for the hunt.
Hey and Just to ask for the umpteenth time. Pre asked you several times if you are going to be available for drinks or something when we come down? He is going on an extended wine trip after the hunt, and I could extend the trip a couple of days if necessary. It’s on a sat and sun, get your ass off the couch and drive up to meet us half way. Or better yet bring that oversized RV of yours to camp stay a few days, and I’ll school you in fishing as well as the market…..
Portland has gone home for the year. I'll be surprised if we make it to the second round and I might have to eat something if they make it past the second.
By some off hand chance that we do make it to the third round the death will be quick and painful.
I believe it will be Sacramento or the purrs. That is unless the TV keeps touting the Lakers as the team to beat.
Anybody think they are trying to make a Kobe Shaq dynasty like,MJ Pippen had in Chicago?????
OBG private mail.
"Paule.... That Kobe/Wallace thing belongs on the "Let's Talk Pro Basketball" board IMHO."
Is the director feeling his oats or something...You know you too can be replaced. HAR!
I know, it was just a shameless attempt at spamming another thread.
Lets see, how DO we punish rouge Directors anyway?????
OHHH yeah!.............
Bagby Hot Springs
Getting wet is the whole point
Ahhhh, Bagby.
What is it about this hot bubbling pool that illicits such nostalgia whether your last visit was two weeks or 20 years ago?
Perhaps it's the drive beyond Portland's ever-bustling suburban bounds to rediscover the solace of a place where time seems to have stood still. Maybe it's ambling through the old-growth forest to the gurgling melody of water rushing over rock, or finally just leaving it all behind while contemplating the clouds from the rapture of a steaming mineral water bath.
Whatever the reasons, those interested in trying out Bagby Hot Springs for the first or umpteenth time have cause to celebrate in the reopening of Oregon 224 southeast of Estacada. For the first time since severe flooding washed out the road more than two years ago, Portland area folks can reach the springs in half the time that any alternate routes offer.
While getting there may not be quite half the fun, the drive to Bagby offers its share of scenic diversion. After Estacada, 224 passes the North Fork Dam and winds along the churning waters of the upper Clackamas River for 32 miles. The numerous white-water rapids are magnets for kayakers and rafters; pull over at a rough-looking spot and watch them test their skill.
Shortly beyond Ripple Brook Ranger Station, watch for signs for Bagby bearing right on Forest Routes 46, 63 and 70. This area is known for good swimming holes and scenery, but there are no guardrails; fallen rocks are common hazards, so keep at least one eye on the road. Pegleg Falls, less than a mile before the hot springs parking area, features a 20-foot waterfall cascading into a broad pool -- just the place you'll fantasize about come next July.
However, with snow dusting the ridges, hot water relief is the kind that currently comes to mind. From the Bagby parking lot, the trail crosses a bridge at Nohorn Creek and immediately enters an enchanting old-growth forest. The 1.5-mile hike ambles carefree along Shower Creek's meandering flow and is the perfect environment in which to unwind and reopen ones senses to a natural setting in a rare state of balance.
The rustic hot springs' site features three bath houses plus a cabin staffed at most times by a member of the Friends of Bagby Hot Springs, a dedicated group of volunteers who do an excellent job preserving and operating Bagby.
The Upper Bathhouse at the far east side of the site features a large round tub perfect for a group of four to eight to enjoy privately. For the socialites, the Lower Bathhouse features three hollowed cedar tubs plus a large round tub on an open deck. The adjacent New Bathhouse includes five cedar tubs, each in an individual room, perfect for two.
The history of the 136-degree mineral water spring dates further back than its 1881 founding by miner Robert Bagby. According to Native American legend, Northwestern tribes traveled long distances to take advantage of the restorative powers of the spring and bathe their sick and wounded.
Today, the water is directed to the tubs through an ingenious system of wood flumes, allowing them to be filled and emptied in minutes. The temperature is regulated by adding cold water from another nearby spring.
Drinking water is not available at Bagby, so be sure to bring plenty to replace all the fluids you sweat out. The hot springs also are an ideal setting for a picnic lunch and, while alcohol is allowed, the Forest Service can't stress enough how often it has been the root of problems. Remember that soaking in hot water greatly increases the effect of any alcohol consumed, so be courteous to others and responsible for yourself.
The unique nature and spiritual setting of the hot springs attracts a variety of people, so come with an open mind. While the winter is less busy, there still can be a wait on weekends. The least crowded times are weekdays; if you do go on a weekend, get an early start to beat the afternoon rush.
According to the Friends of Bagby, about 50 percent of the bathers soak in the nude, but since the site attracts such a wide range of people, including families with children, they ask visitors to be courteous and discreet. Dogs must be on a leash at all times to prevent contamination of the springs. If you need extra motivation, skunks abound in the surrounding forests, and curious canines commonly end up on the wrong end of their meetings.
All said, Bagby's popularity has added some minor complications to visiting, but when done right its a hard destination to beat . . . with or without your suit.
Bagby Hot Springs
WHAT: A semi-developed hot springs designed with a wonderful eye toward fusing rustic utility with the natural landscape. Combine the 3-mile hike (1.5 mile each way) through old-growth forest with a hot soak in a hollowed cedar log and you'll return a whole new person.
THE BUZZ: After 2.5 years of planning and reconstruction, Oregon 224 is back in service, and once again Portland area residents have a 70-mile direct route to the popular recreation area.
GETTING THERE:Follow Oregon 224 from the Portland area. Continue beyond Estacada approximately 32 miles. Shortly after Ripple Brook Ranger Station, watch for signs for Bagby Hot Springs. Turn right on Forest Road 46 for 3.5 miles, bear right on Forest Road 63 for 3.5 miles, then turn right on Forest Road 70 for 6 miles. The parking lot is posted on the left.
GETTING A TRAIL PASS: Make sure to purchase the required Forest Service Trail Park Pass. Needless to say, it's a drag worrying over a fine while trying to relax in the tub. The $3 pass is available along the way at the Estacada Ranger Station (595 N.W. Industrial Way, Estacada; 630-6861. Hours: 7:45 a.m.-4:30 p.m. daily, closed on weekends after Dec. 20) and at Portland area locations including R.E.I., Nature of the Northwest and G.I. Joe's.
SEASONAL TIPS: Cool temps and lack of summer crowds make the hot springs a desirable fall/winter destination, but there are a few added cautions. 1. Bring a flashlight with fresh batteries; night falls fast this time of year, and an unlit forest is pitch black. 2. Hunting is allowed in the vicinity of the trail, so wear bright colors and leave the leopard print speedo at home...Please. 3. As always, if the weather is questionable, call ahead for road conditions.
COST: Use of the hot springs is free, but a donation to the nonprofit Friends of Bagby organization is a sure bet for good karma.
VOLUNTEER: Many visitors go bonkers over Bagby. If this is you, get involved in preserving it and join a Friends of Bagby work weekend. Call Wendy Walker at 668-6823 or e-mail at wendy-wak@gte.net
Which reminds me. What were you doing on the threads yesterday picking on the 7-cent penny investor? AHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
I was disappointed with your performance and only give you a score of 7 out of 10..
Blazers Lakers coming up…. Have you heard the Kobi for Wallace rumor yet?
HEY NYC re: Pre.....
He said he would come back when someone called him on the phone or e-mailed him declaring the war over. Since I cannot make such a declaration (as I was not the main participants) I think it would be up to you Judd Waif and VIV. Why Viv you ask...cause Pre has a sweet spot for her. ;O)
NYC..............................
You're still ugly!
Hey no problem Matey. I was watching Arizona Elk hunts on the Outdoor Channel. BIG ELK. I thought it'd be cool for the SWAMP to converge for a really big group (drunk) I mean Hunt. Seems other than Colts casual interest, I’m the only one…HAR! I know ONEBGG would like to meet you.
You being a new resident and all that, I figured you'd be out scouting the places to hunt instead of finding an IP... ;O)
Just the same we have some damn good Eastern Oregon ELK. Only problem is the two-year (if your lucky) wait for a tag. I talked to some of the guides here. You book your trip and wait for a tag. If you do not get your tag in three years they refund your cash. This is the reason why I chose the hardest area to hunt this year. Nobody wants an Elk tag cause the trophies aren’t there. I just want to hunt. I have an ELK tag they can wait. Plus I’m in for the extended drawing.
This whole apply, and wait, makes Arizona’s problem of too many Elk, seem like a good opportunity for the Oregon Hunter. Specially if they have an acquaintance on the inside.
Some idiot loosed some wild hog here in Eastern Oregon so the game department is going to open up a season for hogs. Right now they believe there to be only a couple hundred. However we know that number will only last halfway through a breeding season. Seems an outfitter advertised wild boar from his ranch and then the pigs started showing up. Fish and Game still has not done anything. Lack of evidence. HMMMMMMM
Anyway take it easy doing all your traveling and work. Sounds like you’re actually enjoying it. I can't wait till I retire so I can work as hard as you and Pre do.
Just got back form the annual school field trip.
This time the teacher gave us four good children plus ours, so the experience was much more enjoyable this year. We saw 22 different animals with the Giraffe being the favorite of the group. Missed the elephants and Elk :(
My wife was kind of getting miffed at me cause every time I saw one of the African big 4, I commented on how that rack and cape would look wonderful in the living room.
Did I forget to mention we went to the Zoo?
The schoolteacher (and I knew he would do this) singled me out for some stock market advice...I told him to buy low and sell high. Asshole.
My favorite animal this trip was actually the sea lions. The new exhibit allows you to walk almost underneath them while they are swimming over you. Kind of cool to have 700 plus pounds of furry animal glide through the water like a ballet dancer does on the stage. Their flippers are literally the size of my upper torso.(5'7 1/2 @200lbs)
Of all the other ZOOs i've been to,I like our animal’s the best. The Zookeepers must train them to 'ham it up' for the crowds. As we were leaving the Tiger decided to give us a show as he eyed all the little edible morsels of food coming to visit him.
I bought one of those dollar cups of nectar and was besmirched by a dozen or so loud-mouthed birds. All the children gathered around me to hold the cup in hopes a bird would land on them. Seems the birds liked my green jacket and would not get off of me no matter how much I flapped my arms around. Finally I had to grab those suckers and put them on the children’s shoulders.
I knew it was time to leave that exhibit, when two of the birds decided to throw poop on my boy and the one standing next to him. Literally threw the poop on the boys. The damn bird was two feet above and two feet away. That crap came flying in at an angle, and splattered all over the two children. Guess those two birds felt shafted on the nectar, and enacted their own form of payback.
You were actually able to read that? ooohhh my head!
Chileto
Burrito
Taco Husker! har
I can't believe my OBbuddy is OB sellout for his barms threadf.
I actyually saw him root for the spurs just to get some traffic.I'm so diasapointed. I'm thinking ist thje parking lot time.
Yopu'fd think you lknow someone after 11 yearts
Man this squirrle is really pissing meoftoday.its about readi to eat a hot peacwe of lead.
Ifeed him enough he doen't need to bitch about it when I fgorget!
Portland needds to tkae that tampon out of theis pussies and start playing like men.USe the bruise crew to eliminate the others stratres and then bring in the finess with Sab and Pip.
Augman,Davis and Harvy can take pppoepl out with a quik thud and then we rule the rim. Its aboot time we Put Perdu back in the line up.Whats the hell doe a man with three rins doing siting on thje bench.
thismarket sucks. False rallies on low volume.Stupid investors out there baloonign the market beyond sensable indiccies. Freeking markey makers hayday. sonsovb bitches
Damn it nyC. You're ugly!
Hey anybody joing me in an afternoon drink? Well i'm already three ahead ofg you so yopu'd better getstarted
You the man Matt. EOM
NYC...BY Judd....
"naw, i don't go to IH. i think i pizzed off that core group over there. i'll let 'em camp in peace. i'm a fart in the tent to that bunch. i've been a little too busy to pay much mind to these boards anyway."
Chasing the walloping walleye
Many fishing experts say the next record walleye, at least a 25-pounder, could be caught in Portland's back yard
By Bill Monroe of The Oregonian staff
Walleye anglers from around the world are looking to the Columbia River for the next record walleye, a fish that would break a mark set before some of them picked up their first rod.
Eager anglers from across the nation have joined the chase in the upper Columbia Basin.
But Tom Thorud of Gresham doesn't waste gas on a two-hour drive up Interstate 84. He is convinced the next mega-walleye will come from Portland's back yard, and four hours of driving is four hours less fishing.
"I know there's a 25-pounder out here someplace," said Thorud, one of the Northwest's leading walleye experts. "And I want it."
Walleye, a member of the perch family, is native to the upper midwest and Canada, and is the fish of choice in Minnesota and Ontario.
Frigid Midwest winters keep sizes down, however. A six- to 10-pounder, such as those routinely caught from Oregon to British Columbia, is so notable that it will often get its picture published in Midwest metropolitan newspapers.
Walleye were introduced to Washington's Spokane River sometime before 1962, two years after the world-record 25-pounder was caught in Old Hickory Lake in Tennessee. They have spread north to Canada and down the Columbia, nearly to its mouth.
The fish fights like a log but tastes like a black-tie dinner.
"Walleye is as close to freshwater halibut as you get," Thorud said. "Once you eat a walleye, you'll never eat another salmon."
In the Columbia waters with the big walleye reputation, between The Dalles and Umatilla, anglers on both sides of the river pull 16- to 18-pounders off submerged mounds in their quest for the record.
But Thorud, who said he fishes every weekend day of the year, contends that fishing around the Portland/Vancouver metro area is better.
From Longview, Wash., to Bonneville Dam and up the Willamette River to Oregon City, walleye are firmly established.
"There's a lot more water down here and a lot more for them to eat," Thorud said. "And you can usually have the water to yourself."
Evidence supports his case.
• Below Longview, in years when commercial smelt fishing is allowed, baby walleye often show up in the catch.
• Large walleye are frequently caught in Multnomah Channel during spring chinook season.
• The Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission, in its Sept. 17 meeting, will consider liberalized regulations for walleye beginning in 2000.
Thorud catches walleye below the Sauvie Island Bridge; down Multnomah Channel from Browns Landing near Scappoose to St. Helens, and on the Columbia River side of Sauvie Island from the Warrior Rock Lighthouse to the east side of Sand Island.
He has also found them in the Columbia from Chinook Landing in Troutdale downriver to Government Island and upriver to Multnomah Falls, where he once released a 19-pounder.
He could have taken the fish to the Washington side of the river and set a state record, but, he said, "I live in Oregon. I want the Oregon record."
Walleye are caught in the Willamette from the Hawthorne to Sellwood bridges. And, although Thorud said he has never test fished above Milwaukie, friends tell him they have caught walleye upriver to Oregon City, below the Interstate 205 bridge.
Bud Hartman, president of the Oregon Bass and Panfish Club, said he sees little need to drive upriver for walleye.
"There was a guide a few years ago working the Portland area and Multnomah Channel who offered his clients $10 off their trip if they would release walleye bigger than 10 pounds," Hartman said. "He had to stop doing it because he lost money."
On July 24, boats filled with 25 members of the club held a fish-in out of the Gilbert River boat ramp on Sauvie Island's north end. Along with bullheads, bass and catfish, they caught several walleye up to six pounds.
"It hasn't been until recent years that we thought of Multnomah Channel as a walleye hole," Hartman said.
Walleye also have earned the scrutiny of Oregon and Washington fish managers.
Politically, according to Bob Hooton of the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, the states are concerned about the propensity of smaller walleye to sometimes chase and eat salmon and steelhead smolts. They are, however, far from being a predator in the class of the northern pikeminnow, which gorges on disoriented smolts below dams.
Large walleye rarely leave the bottom and "don't like to chase anything," Thorud said.
On Sept. 17, the Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission will consider expanding the bag limit of five walleye a day to 10, and allowing anglers to keep smaller fish.
Among anglers concerned about overfishing there is some opposition to relaxing the rules, but Hartman and Thorud said the change will make little difference. Few, if any, anglers catch a limit of walleye in a day and smaller fish aren't caught as often as large ones, which would remain protected.
"You can't hurt this fishery," Thorud said.
Swine fever confirmed at three farms
Surveillance areas are bounded by a red line. Circles indicate the 3km restricted area.
By Michael Pollitt
Eastern Daily Press
10 August 2000
Three outbreaks of a highly-contagious swine disease in East Anglia involving the same pig business were confirmed by the Ministry of Agriculture last night.
After a three-day wait, the official laboratory tests confirmed classical swine fever on farms in Norfolk and Essex following the initial outbreak on a Suffolk farm, near Woodbridge.
A pig-breeding unit at Quidenham, near Thetford, is under investigation by the Ministry of Agriculture as the possible source of Britain’s first outbreak of the disease in 14 years.
All the pigs will be destroyed.
Scientists are also investigating the possibility that the latest outbreak of swine fever, which can kill huge numbers of young growing pigs, was introduced by a ham sandwich or sausage roll brought in from mainland Europe and accidentally thrown or fed to pigs.
“We’re looking at all possibilities for the possible spread of this disease including the possibility that infected food might have been responsible,” said a Whitehall official.
Facons Bottom Farm, at Iken in Suffolk, where swine disease was found.
One batch of pigs bred on the Breckland farm was sent for rearing at Facons Bottom Farm, Iken, Woodbridge, and will be destroyed to prevent further spread of the disease.
About 3500 pigs, weighing between 15kg and 20kg, will be slaughtered as part of the official eradication policy.
The ministry’s teams of investigators, led by staff from the Veterinary Investigation Centre at Bury St Edmunds, took samples for laboratory analysis.
The tests, which were taken three days ago, confirmed the outbreak – the first since 1986.
Swine fever, which can be spread from pig to pig or by farm or profes-sional staff or even lorry transport, has been common in most parts of Europe.
It was rampant in Holland, Germany, Italy and Spain in 1998.
It has no implications for human health because the virus is only found in the pig population, and especially in populations of feral or wild boar in Europe.
The Quidenham unit, which supplies the country’s largest pig- farming group on contract to the Framlingham-based QBP (Quality British Pigs), was subjected to strict movement restrictions within a 3km “no-go” zone on Tuesday.
It houses around 1900 pigs while the Essex unit has around 950 pigs.
The ministry has announced surveillance areas around the outbreak farms and units will be checked by officials for signs of the disease within seven days.
Movement restrictions remain in force for 21 days.
David Saunders, managing director of BQP, which runs 250 specialist pig farms in Britain, said staff were working closely with the ministry to trace every batch of pigs.
“Both BQP and MAFF are now working closely together to investigate this outbreak and in particular to trace its source,” he added.
If swine fever is confirmed, all the pigs will be slaughtered and the carcases destroyed and removed from the food chain.
The compensation is set at 50 per cent of the market value for confirmed cases, or about £25 per head for the Suffolk producer, and 100 per cent of the market value for other pigs but there is no payment for consequential loss.
“We are absolutely terrified. We needed this like a hole in the head,” said Neville Kemp, of Hill Farm, East Harling, who runs 700 sows on the family’s Hill Farm, East Harling.
Another leading farmer, James Alston, of South Lopham, said the farm’s head pigman was “very worried at the possibility of swine fever” on the doorstep.
Norfolk surveillance area
Pig farmers in the Norfolk surveillance area will be informed by the ministry. The boundary of the Norfolk area runs:
Thetford, at the junction of the A1075/ A134/ A1088, head north east on the A1075 via Wretham to Watton.
Turn right on the B1108 heading east via Hingham to Kimberley.
Turn right on the B1135 road to Wymondham.
Turn left on the A11 (T) to the junction with the A47 (T).
Turn right on to the A140 (T) and head south via Long Stratton and Dickleburgh to Scole.
At the junction with the A143, turn right on the A143 and continue south west via Botesdale, Wattisfield and Stanton to the junction with the A1088 at Ixworth.
Turn right on the A1088 and follow the road north via Little Fakenham to Thetford and the junction with the A1075.
That certain other website sucks doggy clumps. Good morning People. With SI and the other website, the traffic is down by over 75%. The people are not leaving the Internet, just those sites.
May the fleas of a thousand camels infest the other websites sister’s underwear. Johnny Carson