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This does seem to be the start of the rally. Shares really haven't traded below a dollar after this last RS, which is not the normal pattern after previous splits. Kalani will be able to sell (assuming this keeps moving up) at ever higher prices, which in turn will reduce the total outstanding when they complete the dilution. All of that, of course, points to a higher NAV per share possibly as high as $10 in a few weeks or less. Could be achieved as soon as next week with financials being reported 8/7.
Assuming 15% of the volume is Kalani, they should sell roughly $3-$3.5 million today. Maybe $36 million left?
Someone other than the average Joe is buying this morning.
Over 1 million shares traded already. PPS moving up.
Depends a lot on what GE in contracting for. Assuming decent rates for Panamax and the new vessels, DRYS could actually post a profit on the quarter.
RH - the current 75k was quickly trimmed from 100k right at the close. Not sure what means if anything.
A much different trading pattern the last few days, the Kalani dump should be completed in the next 3-4 weeks (maybe less?), and financials out next week. This could get very exciting real soon!
That's a good point. When are they reporting?
LW - I am seeing that and have the same thought. It seems clear the pps is being kept above $1 and several large blocks are coming over the tape. Kalani seems to be taking steps to keep their sales between $1.05 and $1.10 today. Very similar to the patterns last Thursday and Friday. At some point it also occurs to me there will be less support to short DRYS. As we approach completion of the dilution I just don't see the risk to continue to short. likely less than $40 million left now. It's been interesting watching the show and I think it is about to get even more exciting.
Hard to know about another RS at this point. The primary reason why GE has conducted them so far has been to keep the pps above $1 and give Kalani the ability to off load more shares. Most shipping companies have 70+ million OS. The worst case I have seen calls for 60 - 70 million OS for DRYS once the Kalani dump is completed. That total number could be a lot less if there is a run on the shares.
Interesting how shorts haven't been able to drive this below $1. After previous reverse splits, it didn't take any time at all. I wonder who is buying up all of the dilution?
Kalani is clearly feeding someone shares at $1.10. maybe a push higher later today?
Someone is buying a large amount at $1.10
Simple answer would appear to be dilution.
What Kalani debt?
15% gap up. I wonder how many stops are about to be triggered for shorts?
As disgusting and morally bankrupt as GE is, he has been clear in all of his filings and statements. He is on record stating this is the end of the recapitalization of DRYS. I suspect we can take him at his word and once the current Kalani deal is done, there won't be any more share dilutions - at least for now.
Unclear if the $2 billion shelf registration is a fallback position or if he has some, as yet, unannounced plans.
Companies post their filings directly to the SEC website. It is instantaneous and doesn't require anyone from the SEC to be directly involved.
If GE intends to complete the Kalani dilution, I am not so sure it will be completed next week. I could easily take until the end of August if they don't try jamming too many shares out at a time. If they control how much goes out each day, the pps could actually start moving up to something approaching NAV. Of course, that would also need some benchmark for how many shares there would be when the dilution ends. There is probably 21-22 million outstanding now and if the pps moves higher the total could end up around 45 million. Wouldn't seem to be any need for another RS.
What would happen if another run to some ridiculous pps were engineered again? GE could easily complete the Kalani dump with very few shares and the resulting NAV would be higher as well.
The 6K for the directors was submitted this morning at 8:55. Is that the one you are referring to?
DTG - Not enough details yet to know how revenues will look next month. At the very least, the OSVR fleet will be a drag while the Panamax fleet may actual show a profit. Not sure if there will be enough added revenue from the ships recently brought into the mix.
I may have missed a filing somewhere, but I am not aware of any debt conversions taking place. If you have a link, please share.
My take is the pps has been hammered due to dilution and reverse splits. All of that so GE could get $700 million from investors.
I don't understand that logic. DRYS has less debt than most shipping companies. The $150 million in commercial loans are fairly normal. The $200 million revolver still has 2.5 years or so to go and isn't an issue. Don't know if the ship valuations are spot on, but it seems fairly clear there is a very good debt/equity ratio.
Nope. Don't see debt as a problem for DRYS... not at the moment any way.
Kalani - is likely part of the mix, but they don't seem hell bent to drive the pps down today. Maybe having all of the cash needed to pay for the ships with a surplus of $24+ million has taken some of the urgency out of the equation?
It's a coin toss I suppose. Trading appears to be more longs coming in though. Assuming it stays above $1, tomorrow could be setting up for move up.
This has traded very differently today especially considering 20+ million shares exchanged hands.
The pps seems to be holding up. Interesting gaps between bid and ask without any significant pressure to close them. This could be the point where traders are beginning to move in. Tomorrow could get real fun.
TBG - Sorry for not responding privately. I don't have any relationship to the other alias you mentioned. Shipping in general and DRYS specifically is on a good trajectory later this year. The overall rates are predicted to begin escalating with some very high values by 2020. If GE stops diluting shareholder, who knows, DRYS could become something other than a day trad.
Everyone here seems to expect this will continue to play out as it has for the past several months as the remaining $45+ million is sold. What is interesting is that at some point, and likely very soon now, the many traders sitting on the sidelines are going to jump in. That will undoubtedly run the pps higher and reduce the number of shares Kalani ends up selling. All of which means the book value per share will ultimately end up higher and feed the momo.
it also seems clear someone is already buy a large amount of shares. Kalani has not been the largest part of the trade. So who has been? If GE or an institution decides to take a large block of shares in the next few days, the Kalani dilution will wrap up even sooner. There is a lot of risk on both sides of the equation today and certainly would not feel all that comfortable especially being short.
Good analogy on SA. The "Penguins" are starting to line up:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4090885-dryships-penguins-waters-edge?auth_param=12d3ff:1cnhud9:c2ad85d41ebd15a6e717fdf7e34db54b&uprof=45&dr=1
Someone was picking off large blocks throughout the day.
Dried up fast.
3.3 million traded in 1/2 hour. 6 hours left. ?
This is shaping up to be another 30+ million share day. Kalani probably needs to sell another 10-12 million shares to wrap things up. Even with the coming dilution it seems the pps should be closer to $12 minimally. I wonder how long it will take to get there?
TBK - The reported numbers after the split were OK, but that was also before 36 million shares traded on Friday. Not to mention the 40 million that traded yesterday. How much of that volume was Kalani both in shares and dollars?
Interesting that DRYS hasn't submitted a 6k regarding last weeks dilution numbers. I wonder just how close are they to wrapping up?
Since a week ago Mondy, DRYS has traded over 76 million shares. Assuming an average post-split per share value of $2.25 and Kalani being at least 20% of that volume, GE has collected at least $34 million. That would approx $40 million left to dilute. This could be wrapped up this week of the volume continues like the past 2 days.
Then there is the GE wild card. I still think he may buy a large block of shares in order to maintain his control of DRYS. He either needs to buy a lot of common shares or structure another deal for preferred.
WOW. Nearly 76 million shares traded in 2 days!!!
Could have been especially with a fake news story on Friday. Being conservative though, I think they will have sold at least $30 million since last Monday. No matter how I look at various scenarios, the dilution is quickly coming to an end.
Just being conservative in estimating.