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Overconfidence Drives Lifecycle Fund Misuse
Target-date mutual funds or lifecycle funds are designed to be set-it-and-forget-it investment products, but many investors do not use them as intended. A study from Financial Engines finds that client overconfidence and pursuit of enhanced diversification can lead to misuse of these funds.
http://www.planadviser.com/Overconfidence-Drives-TDF-Misuse/
P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes
Russell 2K's P/E on the way to the moon as it's currently 295.81 as of 26 Feb 16.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
S Fund P/E Ratio Might Be Out of Sight
The Russell 2K is a major component of S Fund. The Russell 2K's P/E ratio as of 26 Feb was 295.81. Risk level is high for longer-term investors.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html
Carl Swenlin's View on Long-Term Trend
Today the monthly PMO confirms many other indications that a bear market is in progress. While it is possible for a reversal to take place, that is not typically what happens with a PMO configuration sporting a smooth PMO top, downside crossover, and extended drawdown, such as we currently have. I anticipate an outcome that resembles the declines from the 2000 and 2007 market tops. That is to say that the monthly PMO should continue downward and possibly cross down through the zero line before a long-term price bottom forms.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2016/02/stocks-looking-long-term.html
Following the Money: Out of Global Stocks
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/following-money-global-stocks-76210#.Vs8xeerVxbM
See ya in March C & I Funds
Short-term sell signals trigged on both investments today. Looking to get back in during March.
E-Mini S&P 500 Future Link
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/SP%20500%20Futures
The inflation-adjusted Dow has broken below support of a trend that has existed since the end of the financial crisis induced bear market.
http://www.chartoftheday.com/20160224.htm
Is it Possible the Correction is Over?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-it-possible-the-correction-is-over-2016-02-22?link=MW_TD
Hi Jahvik,
Welcome back for the ride.
How come you picked S Fund over C Fund?
Thanks,
frenchee
Back in the Game
Went 70% C Fund and 30% I Fund at COB today. Initial targets and stops, respectively are:
C Fund
Target 1,947
Stop 1,849
I Fund
Target 56.00
Stop 51.50
May the Force be with us longs. :)
Keep Your Foot on the Gas Carolina Panthers!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/super-bowl-stock-predictor-has-a-streak-going-2016-02-04?dist=beforebell
3-reasons-the-sp-500-may-revisit-its-all-time-high
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/3-reasons-the-sp-500-may-revisit-its-all-time-high-2016-01-27
I hear ya...I'm doing some short-term gun slinging by going 70% C Fund and 30% I Fund today.
May the Force be with us longs next week!
Is It Market Low Today, Tomorrow Followed By Rally?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-20/is-it-market-low-today-tomorrow-followed-by-rally-
The fundamental view on the bottom line: The stock market has to fall a lot further before the valuation indicators will be blowing in the direction of higher prices.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-still-arent-even-close-to-being-cheap-2016-01-12
When I decide to get back in for a short-term play, thinking the major threshold I'll use is a flip on the PSAR (currently in short mode) or an upward break and close on price's 13-day EMA.
Let's see if today's rally has some legs (I hope).
John Murphy's Take on C Fund
"S&P 500 HEADING TOWARD TEST OF 2015 LOWS... My weekend message expressed the view that the major U.S. stock indexes were likely headed for a test of 2015 lows. That test is getting a lot closer. The daily bars in Chart 8 show the S&P 500 losing more than 1% and bearing down on its late September/ mid-August intra-day lows. That's a very important test. A decisive violation of those lows would signal a much deeper correction. The Russell 2000 Small Cap Index has already fallen to a more than two-year low, and is now in bear market territory with a loss of more than -20%. That's not an encouraging sign for the large cap SPX. I continue to believe that the current market condition is the riskiest since the bull market started in 2009."
A Danger and an Oversold day?
This is a Danger day and an oversold day.
The Danger is because the markets are hanging on an edge. As you know, you can't have a robust economy if the banks are in trouble.
So today, we posted the (BKX) Banking Index as a weekly Point & Figure chart. When you look at the chart, you be be able to observe what looks like a Head & Shoulder pattern with a violation because the bottom support has been penetrated to the downside.
At this time, there is only one "0" going below the support line for the way we constructed the chart. With the construct we are using, a violation past two "o"s are needed for a confirmation.
So, we are very close to having a violation to the downside which would be about a drop of 14 points should it continue down, and at the same time we have a very oversold market.
We have two opposite forces in play, so it is time to be very cautious.
Please click on the link below for today's complete commentary and chart:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
8A Bent Grass Ct.
Black Mountain, NC 28711
Tel: -828-296-1200-
That's cool. My answer to you gave me an opportunity to describe how I use the monthly chart I've been showing for several months now. :)
I think that answer depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon for needing the cash.
I use a duel approach to manage my wife's retirement and my retirement. As you know, I attempt to use intermediate market-timing methods to manage my TSP. For my wife's account, I use a modified buy and hold approach supplemented with a long-term market timing method.
For example, my wife has been fully invested since April 2009. I primarily use the below chart to help me decide when to leave and enter. As the chart shows, it gave a sell signal at the end of Aug 15. I have left her in the market "hoping" Mr. Market would consolidate and then continue the march up. Since I ignored the Aug signal because of quantitative easing being in effect, my new line in the sand for a sell is an end of month breach of 1867.
If this sell signal happens, I'm expecting a drawdown to stabilize in the following range: 1331-1226.
You are welcome mate.
Check Out the Major Indexes P/Es
With the Russell 2K being so overvalued (152), I can see why S Fund is taking it hard on the chin.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=topnav_2_3022
Perhaps this is in play BleeckerStreet...
On some days, the change in the I Fund share price reported by the TSP does not match the change reported for the Morgan Stanley EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) index, which the I Fund tracks. This happens when the Board's investment manager, Barclays Global Investors (BGI) reprices its EAFE Equity Index Fund, in which the TSP invests, after the close of the foreign markets. This process, known as "fair valuation," occurs when there are large U.S. market or currency movements between the time the foreign markets close and 4:00 p.m., eastern time, when BGI's share prices are determined. Fair valuation ensures that traders cannot "market time" the I Fund by making investment decisions based on the "stale" prices, thus diluting the returns of other participants who invest in the I Fund. Because the EAFE uses the foreign market closing prices to calculate its values, its price change will differ from the TSP's on those days.
10% Early Withdrawal Penalty Tax and the TSP
http://www.fedsmith.tv/2016/01/05/10-early-withdrawal-penalty-tax-and-the-tsp/
Clearing the Deck Today
Too much downside risk for my liking...moving to 100% G Fund.
Merry Christmas to all my TSP buds!