amen TFN. don't be too hard on yourself tho as we all make similar mistakes.

Great thing is you learned from the experience and there's always another train leaving the station. ;)

OT: Short-Term Gamble on NUGT

Plan now is to wait until the Parabolic Stop and Reversal is tripped (why...ADX is in a very strong trend over 40 suggesting to use trend based indicators vice momentum based indicators for the signal) and go long with an expectation of a counter trend rally to the 18-day SMA.

Looks like easy $$$....

ty...so far...so good but ya never know what the rest of the week brings ;)

Maybe the tidbit at the link below will help you hando?

It did me as I'm finishing my selling today and will be 100% G Fund at COB. I figure if the market breaks out, I'll get back in on the first retracement.

Good luck mate. :)

http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Plenty of Fuel Available for Deployment

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fund-managers-are-holding-the-most-cash-since-lehmans-collapse-2015-07-14

Hey hando, I think you have the waterfront covered. Your comment, "Look for higher highs or lower lows." ;)

Hi hando,

Sorry you couldn't access Murphy's analysis. Thanks for that feedback.

Here's the Reader's Digest summary:

THE FIVE WAVE ADVANCE IN THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX SINCE 2011 SUGGESTS THE COMPLETION OF THE THIRD WAVE IN A BULL MARKET -- THE MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF CONSOLIDATION OR CORRECTION WITHIN ITS MAJOR UPTREND


By John Murphy


NYSE INDEX APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A WAVE THREE... They say when you start to feel seasick you should focus on the horizon. Daily market swings are starting to make me feel seasick. So in line with that nautical theme, I'm going to focus on the market's long-term horizon by using Elliott Waves to try to put things into perspective. I'll explain what that is as I go along. Chart 1 plots weekly bars for the NYSE Composite Index since the 2009 bottom. It looks to me like the six-year rally has completed three major upwaves. Hence the three blue numerals. Elliott Wave Analysis holds that a bull market is comprised of five major waves -- three up waves (1,3,5) interrupted by two corrective waves (2 and 4). It seems clear that the first major upwave ended in 2011. Hence the number 1. A nearly 20% correction that year certainly qualified as a wave 2 correction. The market rallied for four years since late 2011 with only minor corrections. I believe that four-year rally has traced out a five-wave pattern of its own. If I'm right about that, the market has completed its three wave and is due for a wave four correction.

DecisionPoint Market Scoreboard for C Fund

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/dpgallery.html

I'm not convinced it's real TFN.

As a matter of perspective, long-term trend starting to roll over with C Fund's momentum indicators already rolling over.

Murphy's Elliott-Wave Analysis

http://stockcharts.com/members/analysis/20150709-1.html

Goodbye G Fund

http://www.fedsmith.tv/2015/07/02/goodbye-g-fund/

Rally into August?

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/eurodollar_cots_leading_indication/?utm_source=McClellan+Chart+In+Focus+-&utm_campaign=caecfce6d9-CIF_QQQ_Volume_Spikes_on_Selloff7_2_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9e79f8200f-caecfce6d9-151456277

F Fund Long-Term Trend

I Fund Long-Term Trend

S Fund Long-Term Trend

C Fund Long-Term Trend

C Fund's long-term trend is loosing momentum as suggested by the Force Index trend and the RSI trend. Correction time?

Jahvik, I might be joining you in F Fund next week. See comments on attached chart.

Selling I Fund Today

New allocation at COB today:

20% C Fund
80% G Fund

26 Jun Sell Limits for C & I Funds

C Fund < 2087

I Fund < 65.77


C Fund





I Fund

C Fund and New Lows Divergence

This is a very cloudy time relative to buying the stock index funds. I've got 50% parked in G ready to pounce and got my eye on F Fund.

Below are charts for the C Fund and I Fund showing my current sell limits for 19 Jun. Likewise, I have a chart showing the F Fund as well as it's oversold and likely to bounce hard if we get a sell off in the stock funds.

Good luck on your decisions hando. :)

C Fund





I Fund





F Fund

Think we are overextended a tad hando?

#msg-88600053

Opinion: Here’s why the M&A wave is going to sink stocks by Mark Hulbert


Here's my bottom line takeaway, unless you can find some other way of defusing the historical precedents, you should squarely face the prospect that the current merger wave will — just as was the case following each of the previous six — end with a precipitous decline in stock prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-ma-wave-is-going-to-sink-stocks-2015-06-03?dist=beforebell

2 Jun Sell Limits for C & I Funds

C Fund-- < 2092

I Fund-- < 66.27

C Fund





I Fund

YW Drive,

Nice long-term trend chart of C Fund below. When the current price trend line is broken on a monthly close, the wind will not be at our backs.

he sustained divergence betweens RSI trend and price trend is warning me the price trend is long in the tooth or losing momentum.

take care,

frenchee

I Fund Trend Changing or Consolidation?

Sell Limits for C & I Funds

Yellow Flag is out for C & I Funds. Sell limits for 27 May:

C--< 2068
I--< 66.31

so far, so good :)

Triple Bottom Breakdown on C Fund, 6 May 15

Current price target is 2,011.

F Fund Overdue for a Snap Back Rally

F Fund oversold and coming into an area where I would expect support. Eyeballing this for a potential buy to play the rebound to the price mean inside the Bollinger Bands.

Monthly View of I Fund

Monthly View of C Fund

Monthly View of S Fund

The data on sideline cash paint a far different picture than the headlines would otherwise lead you to believe. Far from supporting the bulls, that data actually back the bears.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bullish-argument-for-stocks-turns-out-to-be-wrong-2015-05-01?link=MW_popular

$US Strength Isn't a tailwind Now

Weekly view of the $US

Good Bye S Fund

Tailwind ns no longer at S Fund's back. Going to 50% G, 30%I, and 20% C Fund today.

Update on Sell in May and Go Away

See http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-a-better-way-to-sell-in-may-and-go-away-2015-04-29?link=mw_home_kiosk

A Pause That Refreshes Or The Beginning Of Something More?


http://seekingalpha.com/article/3086556-a-pause-that-refreshes-or-the-beginning-of-something-more

Hulbert on Leading Indicators Signaling a Market Top


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-signal-a-market-top-2015-04-10?dist=beforebell

Five Day Relative TSP Performance


http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$SPX,EFA,$EMW,AGG&n=5&O=111000