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Setting the Stage for an Oil Crisis
01/ 27/ 2021
http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/setting-the-stage-for-an-oil-crisis?fbclid=IwAR1w9PPVWvA4wMbgmRiHSJE_KoEYktvPoEyCrO2WNk0lyQnf_fZ3EDLXgOE
We believe we are on the cusp of a global energy crisis. Like most crises, the fundamental causes for this crisis have been brewing for several years but have lacked a catalyst to bring them to the attention of the public or to the average investor. The looming energy crisis is rooted in the underlying depletion of the US shales along with the chronic disappointments in non-OPEC supply in the rest of the world. The catalyst is the coronavirus.
The initial phase of the crisis that took prices negative is behind us and the next phase which, should take prices much higher, is in its infancy. Global energy markets in general, and oil markets in particular, are slipping into a structural deficit as we speak. We believe energy will be the most important investment theme of the next several years and the biggest unintended consequence of the coronavirus.
Investors’ focus has shifted to how quickly supply can be brought back to meet recovering demand. While most investors believe the lost production will be easily brought back online, our models tell us something vastly different. While OPEC+ production will likely rebound, non-OPEC+ supply will be extremely challenged. Instead of recovering, our models tell us that non-OPEC+ production is about to decline dramatically from today’s already low levels.
Thus far, the slowdown in non-OPEC+ production has come entirely from proactively shutting in existing production. These wells were mostly old and only marginally economic before prices collapsed in 2020. Going forward, production will be impacted by a different and longer-lasting force. Low prices led producers to curtail nearly all new drilling activity. As recently as March 13th, 2020, there were 680 rigs drilling for oil in the United States. In less than four months, the US oil directed rig count fell by 75% to 180 – the lowest level on record.
Shale wells enjoy strong initial production rates but suffer from sharp subsequent declines. Basin production falls quickly unless new wells are constantly drilled and completed to offset the base declines. Considering US shale production was already falling sequentially back in November of 2019 when the rig count was above 700. Today’s 373 rigs all but guarantee production will collapse going forward.
Low prices have led to a sharp drilling slowdown in the rest of the world as well. Between February and June of 2020, the non-US rig count fell by 40% to 800 – also the lowest on record. We have often written about the depletion problem facing the non-OPEC+ world outside of the US shales. Over the last decade, this group has seen production decline slowly and steadily as a dearth of new large projects has not been enough to offset legacy field depletion. By laying down half their rigs, this group ensured that future production would be materially impacted.
Analysts continue to focus their attention on what has already happened (the shutting-in of existing production) instead of looking at what is yet to come. The unprecedented drilling slowdown is only now starting to impact production. Going forward, supply will plummet leaving the market in an extreme deficit starting now.
This blog was an excerpt from our broader white paper Top Reasons to Consider Oil-Related Equities. If you are interested in reading more about this topic, please download the white paper below.
http://info.gorozen.com/top-reasons-to-consider-oil-related-equities?hsCtaTracking=47e6c6b6-cc98-4b4f-9d15-7a5d50ca23d5%7C5cf430a6-e13b-40f4-8869-9ce96f4b8a19
The Energy Cliff - The End of Oil | Steve St Angelo + Nicholas Trinkett
A dive into the world of oil production and demand with two interesting perspectives. Both provide lots of detailed data to help predict the future of oil and energy in this fast changing sector.
Peak Oil in South & Central America
By Matt Mushalik, originally published by Crude Oil Peak
January 5, 2021
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-01-05/peak-oil-in-south-central-america/
Breaking Down: Collapse
One of the most difficult parts of explaining civilizational collapse is making it understandable to those who have never been exposed to the consequences of climate change, energy and resource decline, and the myriad other predicaments we get to stare in the face regularly here. While most of us understand the situation and comprehend the issues we'll have to deal with, many of our friends and family don't. This podcast may be able to help explain it in a more complete way that anyone can understand:
https://collapsepod.buzzsprout.com/1403161?fbclid=IwAR0IPb5JKp1BHx84N8hRAbg0Ql43Qonlv4m3w1A9qEhUVbUDNpngeJe5REM
Breaking Down: Collapse
One of the most difficult parts of explaining civilizational collapse is making it understandable to those who have never been exposed to the consequences of climate change, energy and resource decline, and the myriad other predicaments we get to stare in the face regularly here. While most of us understand the situation and comprehend the issues we'll have to deal with, many of our friends and family don't. This podcast may be able to help explain it in a more complete way that anyone can understand:
https://collapsepod.buzzsprout.com/1403161?fbclid=IwAR0IPb5JKp1BHx84N8hRAbg0Ql43Qonlv4m3w1A9qEhUVbUDNpngeJe5REM
Koog, thanks for posting Tom's b4atf)"The Christmas Kitty" in tribute to his wife, Denise.
On December 12, 2013, Tom sent me a message: "If I have not mentioned it Eddie I am dying and time is growing short. Watch my board. Thanks, Tom"
Needless to say, I was in shock. Shortly before Tom's message, my Mom had died and shortly after Tom passed, my girlfriend died of cancer. We just don't know what's in the cards for people around us!
Tom might have died of a broken heart and eventually he had to leave his cabin in the woods to return to a hospital, just guessing.
"The Christmas Kitty" was a well written story; I have read it often. That was part of his legacy to us in addition to being a really nice guy married to sweet.
Happy New Year, Koog. I hope things improve for us and the entire world.
Thanks,
sumi
UK North Sea Summary Part I: Licensing, Drilling, Discoveries and Development
12/25/2020
George Kaplan Natural Gas Production, North Sea, Oil Production, Reserves and Resources
http://peakoilbarrel.com/uk-north-sea-summary-part-i-licensing-drilling-discoveries-and-development/?fbclid=IwAR0pUHnjGDv9z6vDaBfvB-CtStNl2oJhny4hl2SNRGWEfV9SjLkp7EPC7CA
Gold & Dollar: How Money Became Worthless | Currencies Explained | Documentary | Fiat Currency
Before the pandemic, I believed there was a possibility to achieve many things. BUT Covid-19 has wrecked the economy and our debts at all levels of our nation will balloon in attempting a recovery.
I have been elated over gardening starting to mushroom in popularity, although it takes at least 10 to build and continually refine a garden to maximum production. I set the example in my part of the country, but few follow me. If local food shortages begin to develop, I will contact my mayor and propose that playgrounds be turned into Victory gardens, except for a small kids area of swings etc., where the kids can play and see food actually growing in the ground, instead of seeing food on grocery shelves.
There will be many sector collapses, but I have an open mind to a better future. You have to have that attitude in being a gardener.
Thanks for the book recommendation!
sumi
One Little Problem With The "All-Electric" Auto Fleet: What Do We Do With All The "Waste" Gasoline?
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 14, 2020 - 17:40
Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/one-little-problem-all-electric-auto-fleet-what-do-we-do-all-waste-gasoline?fbclid=IwAR0lFWYXDvYTTqZx9DbKVkMuX0QnS7SbQrca4iYOtos8yhPsqOiS633hI3Y
Thanks for your endorsement on the potato decision!
Actually a friend stopped by with his new drone. Pretty nifty and for once I can see all of my garden areas in three pictures. Thanks.
I had one under-performing area, so I emptied out one small raised bed and will replace the area with six 15-gallon plants next to a white fence to promote growth.
All the trellises have been put away, but a city garden depends greatly on them. I grow long beans on tee-pee trellises and squash on wire vertical fences.
FORTEX POLE BEANS
TETSUKABUTO WINTER SQUASH
TETSUKABUTO WINTER SQUASH
I've been cooking a lot more; example below.
Ingredients from the garden included potatoes, cherry tomatoes, string beans, garlic, onions, chili peppers. I used a little salt and cooked in olive oil bought in a store.
Planted the hard-neck garlic: German Extra Hardy and Music
Going forward for 2021, I will reduce my garlic planting by one bed, and increase my potato plantings. If there is a food shortage next year, it's better to have more potatoes than most foods.
sumi
Interesting trends shown in this article, especially China's efforts.
I hope we succeed in the transportation area, but in the U.S., the problem that plagues me is that around 4% of population supplies food for the other 96%. This is a dangerous imbalance in a crazy world.
As hard as I personally try to produce food, I still heavily rely on food store purchases. I need a small farm somewhere in the south to grow food during the entire year. Here's what I will be leaving...
sumi
The World you know is Ending
Great for you. Love wood chips. Good luck!
sumi
I read this article on autumn potato planting and will give it a shot this autumn. I will also be planting garlic soon. Having two crops ready to begin developing in March while not doing any work appeals to my food security.
Good luck,
sumi
Thanks for your encouragement. I will keep experimenting in the garden and will perhaps set up a greenhouse, as a last hurrah.
Having a city garden indicates to me that I'm in an untenable situation.
Jackie Clay boiled it down in just one sentence and I will repeat it here:
"Hopefully, your survival homestead is in a relatively isolated location far from any major highways or large cities. You’ll need room for a garden, a natural source of water, and the ability to harvest firewood."
I'm concentrating on learning to be a better cook this winter. I planted some TETSUKABUTO WINTER SQUASH this summer for winter survival soup.
I have an freezer full of tomato sauce and beans for soups, along with brown rice.
Tomato sauce:
I need my hot chili peppers in the soup to ward off the flu:
FERMENTED GARLIC WITH ORGANIC HONEY FOR A NATURAL REMEDY
I was talking to a neighbor yesterday about the quote: "We grow too soon old and too late smart." This was in reference to my offering putting an apple orchard on her property, which she declined 20 years ago. Now it's too late. It's almost like I need to buy a small farm down in the Carolina's to make up for lost time her in New England. Sounds crazy, but that's my status.
Good luck
You're a breath of fresh air, my friend.
I've been in training for a societal change since the late 1950s with my playpen next to my maternal Grandma's large garden built for survival during the 1930s.
I graduated from playpen to a rope tied around my waist to crawl up and down rows of vegetables. I was taught that "gardening is food insurance," and that "the earth was nature's refrigerator" during the summer [moist soil keeps vegetable fresh] and buying them in a store is the beginning of their death in a refrigerator.
I gave up driving a car in 1970, so I rely on walking and trolley. A bike might be a possibility once the highways see much reduced driving.
My bucket list is almost non existent; a trip to the woods along a river satisfies my needs and gives me great pleasure.
The pandemic has been driving most people nuts, but I've been too busy growing food for the winter.
In essence, my gardening lifestyle had kept me younger than most my age. Five years ago I began singing karaoke on the Internet; I seem to be good because I get invited to sing a lot.
I think there is a lot out there for many people, but people my age are looking for the end. During the pandemic, I lost 29 pounds through work and reduced eating. I'm nearly the weight when I was running track at age 19. I encourage others to set goals of reduced standard of living and how to enjoy themselves.
I posted some late season pictures of my garden. Perhaps a small greenhouse will be added next year.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=158826558
I hope that the planet will heal as you indicated.
sumi
"Hopefully, your survival homestead is in a relatively isolated location far from any major highways or large cities. You’ll need room for a garden, a natural source of water, and the ability to harvest firewood."
While the pandemic continues, I've been cleaning out my house for possible sale. Looking in the western North Carolina area; have a friend already down there.
I began my subscription of Backwoods Home magazine once is resumed publication. I will trash the rest of my magazines in my cleanup and keep this publication.
Hope all is well with you.
Here are some late season garden pictures.
NORTHEAST GARDEN
SOUTHEAST GARDEN
SOUTH GARDEN
SOUTHWEST GARDEN
MEXICAN SUNFLOWER
TETSUKABUTO WINTER SQUASH
FORTEX POLE BEANS
Ingredients from the garden included potatoes, cherry tomatoes, string beans, garlic, onions, chili peppers. I used a little salt and cooked in olive oil bought in a store.
It's sad to think I might have to move just about when I successfully completed my dream. I keep working anyway, just in case I have to stay.
sumi
Thermodynamic Oil Collapse & Future
October 7, 2020
SRSrocco Report
Interview on the Thermodynamic Oil Collapse with Dr. Louis Arnoux
Contact Dr. Arnoux: https://www.fourthtransitionwealth.com/
Space weather and the very real risks the Sun poses to Earth
By Kate Doyle
Posted FriFriday 30 NovNovember 2018 at 2:30pm, updated FriFriday 30 NovNovember 2018 at 3:28pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-01/space-weather-and-very-real-risks-posed-by-suns-darker-side/10559668
Very valuable video!
Thanks, shermann7
Coconut Oil in Coffee: 10 Reasons it Should be in Your Cup
https://www.roastycoffee.com/coconut-oil-in-coffee/
My pleasure always. My big weakness is a lack of canning skills. I should have learned years ago when my Mom was alive, as she was an expert.
Yes, "doing" is a lot different than "talking." When I hear people saying "I will live off the land if there is a collapse." I tell them that they should have started a decade earlier. It's like compound interest growing over a long period of time.
Certainly this pandemic year proves my point. I could not get many gardening supplies for months! In fact, I'm still waiting for Mason jars.
There is so much of garden learning, and mistakes can be crippling. I speak for me, as I destroyed my first tomato garden. Forgot all the things my Grandma taught me! After that first failure year, I became known as the tomato king! So I kept growing tomatoes yearly along with peppers and cucumbers. What happens? In 2009, New England had a severe tomato blight. In 2010 and up to now, my producing garden is ten times larger with mixed gardening. I spread the risk over many crops of vegetables, herbs, and aronia berries.
That old Dutch adage of "We grow too soon old and too late smart" is applicable to me and many others. We can often be our biggest enemy. We need to look at mirrors to solve our problems, at least as a beginning.
Take care, my friend.
sumi
Hello HH, Sorry for the late response, as I've been trying to prepare for the winter via my city garden. I think and know that home gardens will be part of future home food needs. Last year I had a friend who I assisted in building a garden enclosure to protect against the animal onslaught of my important food. This year was experiment; I did a lot right and a few things wrong, but overall it was a massive success. Below is the 200 square food garden enclosure. I financed the supplies for two enclosures, one for me to assist my contractor to build and one for him, so he had his son assist him.
Sadly, the world's population continued growth is about to hit the wall because of sickness due to a pandemic and Mother Nature's store of declining resources, space, and water. I have always maintained that "progress is regress in disguise." The more we advanced, the more that we wanted; it was a non-ending progression of converting desires into needs.
You, HH, and I are like voices in a desert, with our thoughts and life approaches. What is important to me? Given the choice of a brand new car versus a delivery of aged horse manure for twenty years, I would take the latter. The manure would grow a continuous supply of food while the car would eventually end up in a junk yard. Under this simple scenario, who ends up better for society? The gardener, who grows food plus supplies free tomato and pepper seedlings to ten un-retired friends, versus the person driving around and around and around?
I oversimplify things with my above example because there are billions of people living in cities, which will not be sustainable over time. Time will tell how many will die when the trucks stop delivering food to stock the big-box grocery stores. I look back to my formative years of the 1950s when people took trains into the cities for work and cities were surrounded by farms to supply food. What would have been an ideal setup was destroyed by "progress."
Whatever improved government is developed, I would hope that term limits are tightly applied. I recall when I worked in a bank and had an employee with a career of 40 years processing financial instruments. I had to evaluate her work plus her coverage of emergency help elsewhere. I had to give her a negative evaluation with the provision that she had to be cross-trained in other areas to improve her skills. Here retort was "I have 40 years experience in my job!" My retort was "you have 1 year's experience 40 times!" I cross-trained her, as she had great potential, gave her solid work evaluations that provided her a solid pension. Again, I use a simple example to highlight too much of doing the same thing repeatedly.
In a world of Peak Oil, we will be tortured into a new existence. Reality will hit and decisions will have to be made. New forms of government and of business will have to be adopted in a more narrow availability of natural resources. The warnings over population and over use of resources of the 1970s were ignored and now will have to be confronted. Where that leaves you, me and others will be dramatically in a new life form. If we return to the 1950s, the impact will be less for me versus the many enjoying the modern life. I stopped driving in 1969; I know the other side and it can be challenging.
I had a great garlic harvest, but it was last, so the planting of pole beans to affix nitrogen into the the soil for the next planting of garlic was also delayed. But the beans now have blossoms, but the nights are getting colder, so my bean harvest is not assured. There are always challenges in the soil.
One-third of my garlic harvest!
Tetsukabuto Hybrid Winter squash and pole beans
Will life after peak oil be like the middle ages?
Posted on September 2, 2020 by energyskeptic
Preface. Winston recreates what life was like from the 5th to the 15th centuries — from the fall of the Roman Empire to the beginning of the Renaissance.
Energyskeptic.com shows why hydrogen, wind, solar, geothermal, nuclear, fusion, and other alternatives to fossil fuels can’t replace them. So it is worth knowing how people lived before fossils if we’re doomed to go back to Wood World after peak oil, where biomass was the main source of heat and infrastructure.
If only peak oil, rather than climate change, had been understood as the main problem facing us, we could have prepared for the future much better. We could have had civil engineers figuring out how to insulate homes better, build roads to last as long as the Roman ones still around today, and other infrastructure for future generations. Organic farming would start in earnest, horses be bred to replace tractors, materials scientists would find ways to preserve knowledge that lasted longer than paper. Stone fences built since barbed wire will rust away. Social structures like guilds, who enforced high standards lest all of them not be trusted put in place. Tens of thousands of small granaries to keep pests from devouring crops post-harvest.
I’m sure as you read this you can think of ways to prepare now for the future, and most of all, a social system that doesn’t make most of us poor peasants.
http://energyskeptic.com/2020/will-life-after-peak-oil-be-like-the-middle-ages/?fbclid=IwAR2sEe52k3fuL2yttBJ3yicYZQ9mjaEcLzoD4PppB24XzVIwz-Soa-aJ6Q0
The Man Who Saved the Nation From One of the Worst Environmental Disasters in History
Hugh Bennett was critical in rescuing the United States from the Dust Bowl. Yet almost no one has ever heard of him.
By Michael Behar • 5280 September 2020
Born in 1881 in Anson County, North Carolina, Bennett was raised on a cotton plantation—the eighth of nine children—where he helped his father dig graded terraces out of hillsides before seeding. “I can still recall my father’s reply to my question as to why we were doing the work,” Bennett said during a lecture he gave in 1958 at North Carolina State College in Raleigh. “?‘To keep the land from washing away,’ was his laconic answer…. I could scarcely have understood it except in a vague sort of way.”
Hugh Bennett points out severe erosion. Photo courtesy of USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
https://www.5280.com/2020/09/the-man-who-saved-the-nation-from-one-of-the-worst-environmental-disasters-in-history/?fbclid=IwAR18ZY9h57N_ak2HTevSoczahNnMHjOY2j2S5ySmx-nKQoT7rFvxyuL3bWY
Professor Valentina Zharkova: "We entered the 'modern' Grand Solar Minimum on June 8, 2020"
Cap Allon
Electroverse
Sun, 30 Aug 2020 20:28 UTC
https://www.sott.net/article/440606-Professor-Valentina-Zharkova-We-entered-the-modern-Grand-Solar-Minimum-on-June-8-2020?fbclid=IwAR3d9gxvKBez4QWu90gdlPYgWkQmp7Vszt9XRwkw1zt6nqHBmFxKGLXC39w
How (Not) to Run a Modern Society on Solar and Wind Power Alone
https://tinyurl.com/y6ebpfy8
My garden enclosure is doing great right now. I assisted a good friend contractor last autumn in building it. I paid for the supplies for an enclosure on my property and an enclosure on his property.
The enclosure is approximately a 200 square foot raised bed. I have many containers in it, one trellis, and two growing areas. I had cold crops in the two growing areas, harvested them, and then planted tomatoes.
So far I have not experienced an animal attack, but I still want to find an adequate netting for the top, which will be removed for winter months.
sumi
It's The Preppers That Are Laughing Now...
by Tyler Durden Thu, 07/16/2020 - 20:50
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/its-preppers-are-laughing-now?fbclid=IwAR378CNLzDtOAQIhLn_gR5SV0bfABjxfuC2CUvCN6cd71C9_ZF-DJfNuufo
LOL, very aptly stated comparison.
In times like this, I would like to be living in the country working on a dacha!
sumi
The young Russian herbalist who’s nothing like Greta Thunberg (PHOTOS)
Lifestyle
July 09 2020
Victoria Ryabikova
https://www.rbth.com/lifestyle/332415-young-russian-herbalist-whos-nothing-like-thunberg?fbclid=IwAR23_zKgYRKWXkTRPbqdxlG_nrj_KsLn7VE31vCrnnsMZ_iN6TNjWKFmUBA
Frequently Asked Questions About AZOMITE Mineral Products
https://azomite.com/azomite-home-page/frequently-asked-questions-about-azomite-mineral-products/
Pandemic Leads To Urban Exodus As Families Turn To Self-Reliance And Off-The-Grid Living
Chris Dorsey
Jun 10, 2020,07:00am EDT
Survival consultant Josh Enyart says America is witnessing a massive self-reliance movement. Courtesy of Josh Enyart
https://tinyurl.com/yctsx22n
Pandemic Leads To Urban Exodus As Families Turn To Self-Reliance And Off-The-Grid Living
Chris Dorsey
Jun 10, 2020,07:00am EDT
Survival consultant Josh Enyart says America is witnessing a massive self-reliance movement. Courtesy of Josh Enyart
https://tinyurl.com/yctsx22n
Except for Commerce, I liquidated my trading folder and put it into cash. I don't trust the times ahead.
sumi
Hear Hear!