Retired teacher/counselor and speculative investor
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Sam - I do not have the courage of Net-Man (and not the resources either). If I had done his DD, I would not be putting my shares under the mattress. I would likely be adding at .008 prices that may be forthcoming--especially during tax loss selling season.
MY one strong belief is that FASC is a long term hold. I, or my son, John, will will be picking Net-Man and TR's bones, to get their impressions of sell vs hold. I think you may be surprised on the consensus opinion that evolves stating hold for the long run.
Maybe change that "under the mattress" thinking to place in the vault. - Dave
RJ2 -
My God, you are still alive! You seemed to have disappeared. I figured that you had maxed out your credit card, and taken that wife of yours on a fantasy Caribbean Cruise.
Now - as your elderly mentor, it is time I speak sternly to you. Hold every one of your FASC shares (and remember I know how many shares you have) for at least 3 to 4 years. Do not surrender to "high altitude anxiety" when FASC takes off for higher grounds. Do not--I say, do not--click that sale button on your computer when we hit .10 to .15 cents.
When Net-Man's computer model says, "Sell 70 per cent", then do so. Then transition into your Warren Buffett personality, and put 90 percent of the proceeds into a Vanguard (or similar) S&P 500 stock index fund".
Then sit back, do your service work, treat your wife well, and enjoy old age. Remember, our good Lord may assign me as one of your guardian angels--so listen to this old guy.
On another matter - found out today that I also have skin cancer, and must have a new kind of surgery called Mols surgery. They will keep cutting away at the cancer and keep me there, cut some more, etc, until they have got it all out. In my case it appears to have gone quite deep into the skin.
I live in two worlds. One is the world of hospice care--with considerable suffering, pain and discomfort as I move closer to "graduation". The other is a deeply beautiful spiritual experience where I see Heaven opening up to me, and a welcoming community of angels.
This is very real--very comforting. Some of you have become very special friends of mine--and my faith leads me to truly believe we will have eternal friendships. Our Lord teaches that next to loving Him, we are to love one another. I have learned a great deal here on the FASC Board. And you are one of those who has made my 14 to 15 years here very profitable no matter what direction FASC takes. Dave
Al - We are not permitted to criticize on this board. I think you know my response to your post. I took the time to try and speak with you constructively and respectfully. All I can say to you about our relationship, is what Brian said. "It is what it is.".
Sometimes, when I don't get back what I want, I need to first look at myself. Am I a positive person, who others like? Do I add something constructive to individuals and to a group--its spirit etc? How do others in a group relate back to me?
I am glad you have one other person on this board who responds to you. I could become the second. But, if a message that I took time and care to write, is not listened to, or responded to constructively, then I am not much interested in anything further.- Dave
Net-Man - I'm thinking we may have a new support level right around $3. What interests me is that ORIG has taken a bit of a hit lately, yet DRYS has held up at 3.00. (ORIG's chart below. Notice it is down where it has quite strong support at 16.50 level). - Waitedg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=orig&insttype=&freq=&show=
Al - It seems to me that Net-Man has done the DD and you haven't. His DD, which he shares with us, leads him to believe the present non-disclosure, for reasons he explains, is acceptable--particularly at the present, ridiculously low prices. As a good business man he picks up discarded shares at discard prices.
His advice to you and me who don't do the DD he does, is to do it and come up with our own conclusions. But I don't see you as having the inclination to do it. I don't have that gift or energy either. So, the question remains, why not totally exit and get involved with a CEO who pleases your fancy.
My question is logical. A good question to ask is, "Why don't I just bite the bullet, take what I can get, and get out of here". Believe me there have been times when I have felt like that. I certainly do not think I would be doing anyone here a favor to stay and complain. That would be like asking people to listen to my unhappiness, and I think they deserve better than that. This is particularly true when they work their butts off and have the goodness to share their findings with us. - Dave
Some personal good news. When I recently bought 650 shares at a limit of 3.00, I thought that was my fill price.Broker's slip today shows me I bought them at 2.92. Gives me some comfort as I see us slipping again. Will we hit 2.70/2.80area? Don't know, but my 1200 shares have an average cost now of just about $3. Plan to hold. Waitedg
Sam -
Am fighting my own private Battle of the Bulge. Everything is getting tight, and the stress of the conflict is getting to me. But, give up an ice cream sundae for unsweetened applesauce? I think not. If only Brian would comply with the financials, my gustatory sensualism problems would cease. But then, it would be gaining weight via margaritas.Life has its conflicts. Dave
There was about 750,000 shares offered at the ask price a little while ago. So we should not be surprised to see another big bundle picked up at a considerably sub penny price. We are entering shortly the tax loss selling season, and anyone wanting to exit with a large quantify (anything over 50k at a time) can expect about .006 to .oo8. Just my opinion. Dave.
On the other hand, anyone who likes tremendously good odds, and with any money to spare, might stick in a good until cancelled order at a low ball figure. Almost a win/win. Could sell them slowly at a good profit, or hold them as a long term investment.
Looking at ORIG as one of my indicators for DRYS price. Glad to see it up today .13--and up slightly over 17.50 DRYS very short term is "drying up" after the very short spurt from the buy recommendation.Hope it holds at 3.00--whee it is now--but buying interest is very weak. Waitedg
Although some of you see little correlation between DRYS and ORIG charts, I think there is a connection between the price movement of each. Take a look at the one year chart on ORIG. Has it bottomed in its short term support at 17.48, or will it continue down to its next support level around 16.50? Will DRYS retest support lows , or will it now hold over $3. Not sure--but hope the trend is up on both from here. Waitedg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=orig&insttype=&freq=&show=
Al -
I agree with the first three of your predictions. (Listed below). It is on the last one that we differ. I would word my view:
Near Term & Long Term Plans - Will grow remarkably well as the first three predictions become a reality. In fact, investor interests will translate into an add and hold philosophy.
I would also agree with your final statement: Thanks for all you do, Brian. Glad to have been a part of the birth of this stock into a flowering beauty.
Respectfully - David Waite
Website - SOON
Financials - SOON
Confirmed Sales - SOON
Near Term & Long Term Plans - Not likely
Hope you are right. Bought quite a bit at 3.00 even. Hoping we can hold the 3.07 close and stay above $3.
As we have a new low bid/ask now, someone bought 332,000 shares at .011. Are you trying to buy out the company one-handed, Net-Man? Only kidding. Buying at .011 is an excellent risk reward venture at this point. Dave
Decided to re-enter at the opening today at 3.00 with the news. And bought twice the amount I had originally planned around 2.75 to 2.80. Long term hold now--even though we may still take another dip. Like the longer term prospects. Average cost 3.046 on all shares. Waitedg
Squeezer - No idea -but shot up from 2.88 to 2.98 quickly at end of day. Orig also up a little. Will see tomorrow. Perhaps the 2.82 today was the low. Or perhaps just a short uptrend in a continuing downtrend. Waitedg
Big percentage drops the last two days. Think I will lower my buy order from 2.75 to about the 2.69/2.70 support level. If we fall below 2.68--we could be heading further south. Seems like dollar cost averaging is a good way to buy now. The short term technical chart looks lousy. -(Afterthought) - Further evaluation leads me to believe the 2.70 support area will hold up, so I may be a more aggressive buyer in the the 2.70 to 2.75 area --if we hit it. Waitedg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=drys&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5
Net-Man - In fact I just placed a small 2.75 buy order. I like bottom fishing--but very risky. Rather catch a few perch at a time, than try and land a whale!!. Waitedg
Net-Man - You and me both
Interesting comments on Yahoo board. Quite negative posters. Most of it is saying China is in control--and we may be in for much more correction. Interesting reading for those who want to get some balanced thoughts. Waitedg
Glad I remained on the sidelines. Quite a severe hit to-day. Looking now for a retreat to perhaps 2.80 or lower level. Will be adding, but the forecasting here has fooled us all--thinking we were ready to start moving toward $4.
Looking at the one year chart, we could conceivable go down to the 2.70 to 2.75 level. After looking at chart (click below), change it to a one month or two month chart and one can see how technically weak DRYS is now short term. Waitedg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=drys&insttype=&freq=1&show=True&time=8
TR- I agree all could change in a heartbeat. But it is true that no one is putting much money on that heartbeat occurring--much above a .011 risk level downward. That does not mean the heartbeat isn't there. To me it simply means that no matter how positive the positive posters are, or how negative the negative posters are--it all boils down to headquarters either putting out or not putting out "THE HEARTBEAT". Without it, more will get weary and frustrated with further waiting. I still remain positive--and not just because myself and family have 2.5 million shares involved--but the heartbeat gets fainter with time.
I am closer to calling Brian. Oddly enough--what I plan to say is taking shape in my mind. I plan to be positive and an encourager--and hopefully a friend. - Dave
I believe the buyers are in there, but at a lower price. There were earlier in the day 45000 shares bid at .011 and only10,000 offered at .012. And, if you want to sell at .009 to .001 I think you will find more buying interest. This will not change until management has a PR. Would not be surprised to see considerable shares trade as low as .006 up--if no news before 12/1 - Dave
On increasing volume DRYS took a considerable incremental drop as well as closed on its low for the day. This is definitely "Stand aside and keep the powder dry" time. Unless fundamental news to change things, We are, short term at least, headed down. Waitedg -
See two month chart in link below. Then change setting for one year chart. Technically support is in the 2.80 to 3.00 range. As an old guru used to say, "The trend is your friend"--don't fight the tape.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=drys&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=5
TR - Have not contacted Brian yet. I want to wait a bit longer and formulate just what I want to say. I will be interested in getting a feel for his take on some of the concerns that involve the board. Still trying to think on just what I want to say. There used to be an old computer term, "Garbage in, garbage out." Am going to wait a while longer as I don't feel I am quite to the point of asking the right question(s). Dave
Then why is DRYS heading into another downward trend? Looking at a two year chart, it technically looks like we are heading down again to retest the 2.90 to 3.00 level. Waitedg
One observation as a long time holder of FASC. We are entering soon the tax loss selling season, and a time when investors get rid of their non-performers in their portfolios.
Unless we get some positive directives and news directly from management, there will likely be a considerable amount of dumped shares to pick up at .01 or less in another 3 to 4 weeks. A fairly good strategy might be to place patient, good until concelled orders at rock bottom prices and take on the dumpers. Shares accumulated at .01 or less can likely be resold for money back or small profit figures in January--unless we go "belly up". I think the real fear is that FASC will go into bankruptcy and investors will lose everything. Dave
Looks like we are going down to a lower level again--which I didn't expect. Didn't fill on my 3.18 order last week, and am now standing aside to see where support is. Dave
Actually 300,000 went through at .009. I have a "sneaking suspicion" that good old Net-Man had his fishing net out to scoop up these discards. Expect his silence on the matter. For, if he got too optimistic,he might get some competition down in the bottom fishing area.
An .009 is a terrific deal for the buyer. Because with a little patience, he could get rid of these in the .013 to .014 area in 50K quantities. And, if his and TR's postings come true, he has "done himself proud".
Admire a good trader. Best of good fortunes to you, Net-Man. If anyone even half believes the current DD getting posted here, it seems foolish not to hold a little longer. Yet frustration and silence go together, and some people may need a little cash. Dave
Net-Man - I was debating whether to place my buy order in at 3.19 or 3.18 last night. Tried to chisel an extra penny and may have missed out. Will likely add some more shares this week--250 at a time. Now--back to watching and waiting. Waitedg
RJ - So far I have not been able to interest Brian in the body massage, but I think we are on the same page as far as the margaritas are concerned. One other thing: I will tell my attendants not to disturb me with any new FASC news unless it has risen at least .05 on a particular day.
Now, I am exhausted from typing up this message, so , "Mary, please bring me a frozen margarita, with no salt on the sides of the glass. For I am on a low sodium, high alcohol diet."- Dave
The low of day was at my price, 3.18, but someone else got filled with it. Nice bounce back to 3.27. Hopefully we have formed a higher base. Waitedg
I am starting to diversify:
2.5 million of family shares in FASC
550 shares (soon may be 800 shares) of $3+ "Stock X"
So you can see, I am well diversified!!!!
Net-man knows Stock X. Better not mention names here--because I hate that delete button. But, suffice it to say, I have a profit in it. Now, if FASC explodes to 20 cents, I will sell it and put it almost all in Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund.
Then I visualize relaxing in my recliner, sneaking in a frozen margarita or two, order up a one hour body massage, and appreciate all the attractive nurses and aides that go by. - Dave
I just placed a small, add-on, nibble order in at 3.18. Waitedg
TR - The number you gave is the number I will use. May wait a day or so. Will hope to get through to Brian--and if not, then Adam.
I will have to practice up on my "nice guy" approach!!. My hope is that I can open the door, and leave things so a comfortable follow up call will be welcomed 3 or 4 weeks down the road. Dave.
I disagree with you on this one. It may take a series of calls, in which a basic relationship is established,and this can be vitally important. Some executive's hypocrisy and dishonesty can be covered over quite well for a season. But the real motivation--the heart and commitment of the CEO is not an impossible to bring out in the open--the true person. - Dave
TR - Can you give me Brian's best phone number? Thanks
Thevi - These call options you recommend appear very pricey to me--and no volume showing on my charts. Which specific option do you you see as the best choice.To me buying the stock itself has a far better risk/reward ratio--possibly selling out of the money covered calls if and when the stock stats approaching the $4 level. Waitedg
TR - You offer excellent advice. Some investors find it "uncomfortable" to call and talk with a CEO. I will follow your good advice. And I agree with your thought about getting a "feel" for the situation--realizing specifics must be kept in confidence.
With my counseling background I should be able to do this, and will, before I make any final decision to sell. I believe it in important to be supportive and respectful of the other person. My objective will be to try and establish a relationship where I can call back in a few weeks to speak again. A call of this nature should always precede a disposal of substantial shares. Thanks for the reminder and guidance TR - Dave
Current write up on Warren Buffett in Forbes is interesting as he is about 83 or 84. He states that he has left in his will that 90 percent of his money should go into low cost, index fund on the S&P 500--such as Vanguard offers. Now that's a simple answer for a man with billions of dollars to leave! - Dave
We are starting September. I'm giving FASC until the first of the year--or 120 days more. If I am then still around, I plan to start exiting if no concrete news other than the expectations of TR and Net-Man--and if I can can sell slowly in bits and pieces for .012 or better. Fourteen to fifteen years is long enough. (Selling 1.5 million shares-- my personal current position-- at 30k average transaction size would require 50 sales. At $7 each that's $350 or only .0002 selling cost per share. Not bad).
I am fortunate to have a negotiated $7 per transaction brokerage fee, so 20,000 to 40,000 shares at a time will be satisfactory--and should not destabilize the price if sales are slow.
I am fortunate to have a low cost basis of just a hair over .02, so a loss of 40 cents on the dollar , although significant, could be much worse.
The above is my current thinking. Dave