BOTTOM LINE
:
DryShips is more than just a shipping company. Its exposure to the high growth offshore drilling market has already helped contribute to the firm’s top and bottom lines. As the trend continues to move
towards deepwater and ultra deepwater more and more, DRYS and its subsidiary Ocean Rig will continue to benefit as well. Meanwhile, the company’s drybulk carrier and tanker segments are poised
to gain should the coming rebound in shipping rates and volumes finally take hold
.
With the company’s diversification away from their sole reliance on the global shipping industry, the biggest risk to DRYS’ success is its debt laden balance sheet. The company’s chief test will come over the course of the remaining months of 2014 as almost 30% of DRYS’ debt obligations are due by March 31,2015. In the meantime, the company is growing revenues mostly through their offshore drilling segment and increasing their cash position in an effort to shore up their balance sheet and adequately prepare to meet their debt obligations. While I would certainly proceed with caution, shares of DRYS look more attractive now than they did at the beginning of this year having fallen over 30% from their highs.

Reprint of the report:

http://www.abc27.com/story/25827516/dryships-analyst-report-proceed-with-caution-debt-load-could-be-heavy-cargo-by-brokerbank-securities-inc

TR - Ameritrade shows no after hours bid and ask--only the .016 close. Free Real Time shows the following FASC transactions:

http://quotes.freerealtime.com/rt/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=FASC&type=Time%26Sales

30,000 on the bid side at .0133, 19,000 offered on ask at .016 at 3:10 PM

Trout in response to "what are 5 & 10 Mil trading days going to be like?" With 200 M shares, a large percentage tightly held,the stock would move like a skyrocket. And then, as percentage leaders got published, many would say, "what's going on with this stock called FASC?" Predict the skyrocket would shoot "to da moon", take a very strong 50% nose dive, then start building a growing base, for a slower, rapid rise. - Just my opinion -Dave

Someone's buying sizable quantities at the .018 ask.

new seeking alpha article -

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2276183-dryships-dont-miss-the-turnaround

Net-Man - Are you willing to share picking up some low priced shares? Or is that new plane you have in mind skewing your better judgment? - Dave

Interesting - back a short while ago there was a heavy bid at .0169 and a decent, 37,000 offered at just .001 higher at .017. This resulted in a fill, new price of .018, and new bid/ask at .017/.018 - with much heavier amount of shares offered on the ask. Right now I would back off, and wait for a retreat to the .017 area again. But bullish sentiment is showing up in these figures. Dave

I guess it takes some one individual to initiate. I have decided it is time to buy more FASC in more sizable quantities. This, at a time when my hospice situation points to a very short time frame in which to do this. So--If you see 150 to 200K filled in the near future it will likely be me.

My advice to anyone (and I honestly think I am talking to deaf ears) is this is the best risk/reward situation available. I also am more bullish than TR in one area. I think this is only a long term hold. And if it were to shoot to .08 or .10, unlike Charlie, I would hold my shares. The hold is for a four year time frame--unless a buyout or takeover. - Some may say, "Poor Dave, he is losing his rational thinking". To that I might add, like Liberace might have said, if I were around I would be laughing all the way to the bank. Dave

TR - This middle ground comment of yours is quite interesting. Could you expound on it a bit more? I still think if we ever get things up and running in Canada--that model programs will start a process that could very well expand for several years. Similarly if one of the larger multi-unit prospects finally kicks in , similar users might well get on board for longer term international sales. A middle ground I suppose might be a buy-out. Dave

Chaarlie - If ever anyone can turn a lemon into lemonade, it's TR! He seems to continually walk on the sunny side of the street. If we make it, I contend that it will be foolish to sell other than a tiny percentage for a few personal needs.My belief is that we either make it big and long term, or we don't make it at all.

Maybe I should get TR to sing the old Johnny Mercer song: "You've got to accentuate the positive, eliminate the negative, and don't mess with Mr. In Between." - Dave

Especially if the majority of the large positioned longs refuse to sell on an initial surge. - Dave

Bid/ask has never been closer .0158/.016

TR - Thanks for the updated analysis. This is what I sent to my two sons who will come into most of my shares. (I will advise them to also look at contrary opinions). - Dave

John & Steve -

This is a good post for you to save. TR will provide you detailed information at any time. I have his contact information. If we make it, should be a long term hold. Resist the temptation to sell at a good quick profit. Love - Dad

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=103328145

Yesterday I posted regarding an article in the current Barron's, and mentioned the outstanding record of Brian Rogers when compared with the other 10 experts interviewed. The below link will give background on Mr. Rogers, and by scrolling down you will see comment on AVP which I compared with FASC (Just before the large chart on GE). Interesting reading regarding a very interesting man. - Dave

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/251758/-t-rowe-price-cio-brian-rogers-joins-gurufocus-for-qa--ask-an-investing-question

TR - There is nothing wrong with your point by point analysis. It apparently contains all the factors that you find important in making that analysis--and describes quite well the basis of each one.

Perhaps a critique would be more to the point if it included the fact that others believe there are other factors that do not get described that should be in the analysis, and also the fact that you either under weigh or consider them of not much importance.

Now you might justifiably come back toward this post of mine with the question. "For instance?". Some things are more subjective. We, individually, evaluate all the information we have, and come up with our own conclusions. I would disagree with you that reviewing and critiquing your point by point analysis of FASC is the best method, by itself,to prove or disprove your conclusions. - Dave

TR - Perhaps you are right. I don't think, however, that management would have had much luck in trying to get shareholder support for the issuance of more shares. But, I also think management might have left us high and dry and served their own self interests exclusively--and Brian has chosen not to do so.

What really bothers me is that St. Malo has become as involved as he is with the KDS, and yet has had no involvement with Brian, or vice versa. It can't help but lead me to the conclusion that Brian has become quite detached from ongoing developments with FASC. Dave

For those who like to do research, suggest the current issue of Barron's. In it 10 experts give their opinion on the stock market for the rest of the year as well as on individual stocks. Barron's also shows the results of each expert's picks since January 10th. Mario Gabelli has always been one of high respect to me. But I noticed how much higher the six picks of Brian Rogers stood out above the others. So, it was of much interest when he was asked if there were any new stocks he liked in this current environment. He started off: "Are you sitting down? I like Avon Products. The stock has fallen 40% in the last 12 months, etc". Then, right after he submitted this commentary to Barron's, a Senior VP of Avon, and its Information Officer, sells his entire nearly 30,000 share position. Thus my recent post.

Mr. Rogers may be way too early, but he is no slouch. So long term this creates an interest for me--but only after an August 9th earning report, and the possibility of a rather severe market correction likely in the mid second half of this year, which consensus of the experts are predicting. Thus a stock to watch--but not to possibly consider until way down the road from here.

Other investment ideas come much more easy for me. One member on this board--whose opinions and advice I respect, I decided to investigate. I saw his interest and involvement in another stock. Put it on stock watch, and did some DD. Finally recently bought--and now am enjoying the joy of a nearly 10% profit!!. So, for me, we have to do our own DD, but it is also wise to tap the wisdom of others in the process. Dave

Cpac - The more people who share your opinion--and the numbers are growing--the odd thing is that it starts switching the odds back toward FASC and away from the lottery ticket. Michigan lottery pays approximately 45 cents out for every dollar taken in. These national lotteries become millions to one odds but the financial reward is very great.

So, in assessing FASC, in my opinion, the reward has to be evaluated in terms of the risk. It potentially is very large. So, if comparing it to a lottery, would put it more in the national lottery category.

TR - Like your analysis--as does Charlie. Would like to make a comment or two on your Point 5--reprinted below:

5) Management....given the loss of a prime member of a very small staff a few years ago, this has been a weakened area. However, a small staff has marshaled through by deferring salaries and loaning money to the company when needed....and hasn't requested more shares. It has also been very quiet and has fallen behind on its SEC reports. So, a mixed bag overall in terms of comparisons to other pennies. The addition of one or more members to the management team could help considerably.

My comments: The lack of even a generalized commentary to the investment community is a very heavy negative to me. This, regardless of possible legal considerations for remaining silent.

My assessment of Brian as a person is based on input from RJ--who has known him more personally. Through RJ I have a picture (which may be distorted) that leads me to believe that he is basically honest, and has investor considerations at heart. But, I would not have even this opinion without my relationship with RJ. Others don't have even this.

Similarly Adam. We really know so little of him--and opinions have ranged from little management skills or interest to his being groomed to take over.

St. Malo's involvement with the KDS, yet no communication recently reported between him and management. Red flag goes up here strongly for me.

I give your 5 area a much lower rating than you do, but pretty much agree with the rest of it. - Dave

There is something about bottom fishing and looking at distressed stocks that has always interested me. Find a little sunshine in a stock that everybody else sees as a mess is not always such a bad idea. Just, as an example, have just put Avon Products on a watch list. The Vice President and Chief Information Officer just unloaded his entire position about a week ago. It would indicate to me that the June Q may be another fiasco. I also see a possible rather severe overall market correction in last summer or early fall. So I am certainly doing nothing except watching. Yet, one of the most successful hedge fund managers just spoke positively about its longer term potential. So--keep an eye out--but stay clear until fall, and maybe permanently. Still a glimmer here.

I use this analogy as I now refer to FASC. Many of us are tired of even the dug up DD. As "just around the corner" seems never to come. The moderator board is now down to three. Those who used to periodically "check in", like Techisbest, etc. have stopped checking in. And even a couple of the largest shareholders here now infrequently post. We would, in my opinion, have no board at all now if not for TR, NM and Charlie.

So how low can we go. Like Avon, I see a glimmer here. But--after about 15 years--I have no more positive energy left. I yield to acceptance of this as like going to the races and putting $2 down on a 100 to 1 shot. Incidentally I once or twice won on long shot bets at the races in my more adventurous earlier life. So Avon--if you fall on your face combined with a fall market correction, I might look at you. And FASC--I'm stuck on you for better or for worse--but this marriage is getting quite miserable. We may need some counseling. - Dave

No posts here since February. Looking at AVP as a good investment now. Good recommendation in Barron's this week. Anyone else care to post? Think it is time to reconsider this stock. Waitedg

Dabonenose - In your charting, what would be a low point where you think we are going back toward the 3.00 range, and how high does DRYS need to go--before you believe overhead resistance has been safely penetrated. My own thoughts are that if we get through about 3.55 we have further north to go--heading toward the $4 area. Waitedg

Al - One thing interests me. As I recall from a long ago post of yours, your average cost basis was a little over .02. As the stock cold be sold at .0159 (lowest sale price today), why do you hang on to your shares you still hold. A 20% loss (plus or minus) is not too bad--especially for the penny stock world.

You dislike Brian with such intensity. I would think you would just want to totally exit, and move on to happier hunting grounds. Or is there something you like about disliking this person to such a degree? Not faulting you, but some here are really stuck with few options. You appear to be free to exit with not so bad a percentage loss, yet you hang on to something you dislike. Just wondering - Dave

Of interest to me is the ORIG chart--with price about 18.90. If we move above 19.00, we will have broken through all recent overhead resistance levels. This could have a bearing on DRYS--and whether it will break trough 3.50 and move up. Just my opinion. Waitedg

Net-Man - If one additional sale is needed to handle the financials--on top of the ones you reported--then what is the revenue for the six being used for--assuming if and when it is ever "in hand"? Brian must know the frustration of shareholders. I would think he would pay down Mainland Machinery any still outstanding indebtedness in stages, pay off obligations in back wages to himself and Cal's estate in very slow, incremental stages, and get the financials and PR's in place now as a top priority. A few of us "old dogs" feel at about our wit's end--or the end of even yours and TR's "digging up" of details--most of which should be coming from Brian. I appreciate both of you. But I like total truth.

It is very frustrating, especially for someone like me on hospice care. Reality for me is "less than six months to live". The doctors may be off a bit on this--can be shorter or possibly a little longer. Yet it is a basic reality. A basic reality concerning FASC is your good effort gets criticized because both you and TR minimize, almost to the point of extinction--the risks here--and that only a handful of hopefuls hang on. I say to my doctor--"Tell me the way it is , Doctor". I can handle reality better than a one-sided picture. It might be good for a real detailed explanation why FASC is at 1.5 cents. - I frankly think TR frustrates us more than you in this area. Still I am very fond of both of you. Dave

I think it was John Kennedy who said words to the effect that the only difference between dreams and reality is hard work. I think the ongoing dd is important--for it is the only thing we have to hang on to. Still--it is difficult to have this go on year after year. "It ain't over till the fat lady sings." Still it would be nice to know she has a voice. Feel like the Israelites wandering around in the dessert for 40 years. Would be nice to see and be in the promised land.

What is disheartening is that news expected "in the next few weeks" back a few weeks ago--is now expected in the fall. This seems to be the history of FASC--one postponement after another. St. Malo is a specific case in point--in that he is most specific to our board. What was imminent back a year or more ago--is now indefinite.

With so many years of this going on, it is hard to take any positive posts seriously. A bunch of shares could now be bought with less than a penny spread. No buyers. Sellers hang on for the long shot possibilities--and the fact that selling any sizable position would involve likely taking a huge percentage loss from the current price.

Not a pleasant situation. - Dave

Thought it might be interesting to review Post #1 on this board--back in April of 2001 and over 13 years ago. Raging Bull was flourishing before this. Dave


bobsnook66 Member Level Monday, 04/16/01 02:12:39 PM
Re: None
Post # of 46472
welcome to the future of waste contol eom

Nice close at 3.20 and near high for the day. Let's hope the climb may be slow and gradual without too much retracing from here. Waitedg

Net-Man - The question remains as to how the 1.5 million will be paid off. Gradually--or up front? If so much a year over several years this would be much better for the shareholder. Do you agree? Dave

Al - Don't believe I feel quite as strongly as you do. But, an old saying has a lot of truth, "If you are going to talk the talk, then you should also walk the walk."

I believe the posts and the DD dug up here, and appreciate all the hard work it takes to provide them. We who do less need to be careful about our "armchair criticizing". Having said this, I think there is considerably more caution felt than is being expressed.

It will be to everyone's advantage if and when FASC management does its job in reporting--rather than leave it to our fellow board members. I think, in the meantime, we should aim to keep things as balanced as we can. That is all my post is meant to convey. Dave

Net-Man - You say you have increased your position 5% this year. Take a theoretical investor who owned 3,000,000 shares. Then 5% of that would be 150,000 shares. And at .013 that adds up to less than $2000 for 2014 yearly purchases. Divide the $2000 by the number of purchases make in 2014 and you have a very small out of pocket outlay per purchase.

I agree that "buying the pants" at the best possible price makes sense. But, if you truly believe there are six sales to be reported this fiscal year, and we are starting to develop our own separate revenue source of income, I would think you might want to pay the fuller ask price--especially now with smaller bid/ask spreads--and pick up a much more sizable number of shares. Your bottom fishing has resulted in catching minnows. And, right or wrong, my conclusion is that you may not be feeling quite so positive about FASC as your positive statements of FASC potential would indicate- Dave

PS. As a young man used to buy my clothing at Garbose Bros.in Gardner, Mass. I noticed that a week or two before Sam Garbose had his "two for the price of one sale" he used to up the price of one to nearly twice its regular price! Quite a common retail practice.

HI RJ - I would back Al's comment, and say thank you also for being honest. I agree that short term money might be left on the sidelines now. I think it is true that the risks here get minimized or ignored, and that Al's and Sun's posts need consideration.

We have been waiting a very long time for "just around the corner" thinking. Whereas it may be true, we have no overall word for all investors to lead us to this conclusion. The potential reward here might possibly be tremendous. NM and TR--who are the one's who dig up a high percentage of our DD--certainly think so. But the risk is also great. When knowledge of an investment comes only from fellow investors and not from the company itself--and for a long, extended period-- this needs to be part of the board information--and respected as such--as long as it is presented in a respectful way.

The potential reward is very great, but the risk is also the same. I would not change my position, but it is very frustrating. I recently made a small investment in another stock and it is already making money for me. Good feeling. There used to be a term called "opportunity cost"--or the cost of holding a dormant or dead stock for a long time rather than having our money working for us in ways that could increase it. We have paid a heavy opportunity cost here.

A final comment. In the current issue of Kiplinger's financial mag is an article by a man who has just made a 50-bagger. He is now still holding and thinks it may become a 100 bagger. Involves a Howard Hughes investment. Interesting reading. Could
FASC be in this category? Possibly. But, one must be willing to face the risk also. It could be money down the drain. - Dave

Well - regardless of the news, the stock could be purchased for close to a penny and a half--and no one's buying. One could also say no one is selling.

The proof is in the pudding and the pudding is volume in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 or more with price shooting well over .02 or 2.5 cents. Must agree that headquarters announcement and compliance are necessary--regardless of the the rosy scenarios our DD digs up - Dave

A 20 cent jump on nearly 9 M volume looks positive. let's hope there is some follow through.

Nice to see an .18 increase today off the 2.90.

Is this a turnaround, or is this stock going belly up? Any opinions? Any good research reports?

A very negative posting about DRYS by a poster named Salavort--as well as a brief reply to him:


You have taken absolutely bad numbers and presented them in a positive way-same as another article on DRYS. You cannot assume that revenues will be $400 mln per year. At this point, they could very well return to last year's $70 mln/quarter. And the shipping EBITDA even for Q1 2014 was only $30 mln (based on the information you presented). This means that DRYS (ex-ORIG) has a debt to EBITDA of more than 7.5x. So pretty much you just proved that DRYS is overlevered.


Another really disturbing point is the fixation to the book value of assets. As I have written in numerous comments to articles about shipping-from people that no nothing about shipping-book values are overstaed as the vessels were purchased at record prices. Look at Genco's bankruptcy for example. If that were true, the copmpany would liquidate, pay the debtholders and the shareholders would make many mutliples of their investment. So in reality the market assigns a lower value to the DRYS shipping assets-well below the book value of equity-and the rest comes from ORIG.


A third point is your comment on falling iron ore prices. Yes, they do stimulate demand from china. Yes, the fact that Australian iron ore has a higher ore content makes it even cheaper compared to domestic ore. But you fail to mention that iron ore stockpiles in China are already at record. That was among the drivers of higher rates in the past months, and its probably over.


PS-1 Any article of DRYS is misleading if it skips mentioning Economou. He is a thief that will steal from shareholders when he has the chance. I own ORIG because I think its so undervalued it's worth the risk-and because I think that, in the short to medium term, there is not much Economou can do to fleece shareholders.


PS-2 Please take momentum or deep value from your investment style. They are literally the two ends of the spectrum. No one can be both.
30 May, 11:09 AMReply! Report AbuseLike2
fidelissemper Comments (170)

Salavort all I have to say is ok sure LOL now go back to the yahoo board where you belong and live to annoy with your antics
30 May, 11:28 AMReply! Report AbuseLike1
salvatort Comments (179)