Retired teacher/counselor and speculative investor
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From Google:
Question: "Why was Israel cursed with forty years of wilderness wandering?"
Answer: “Wilderness wandering” refers to the plight of the Israelites due to their disobedience and unbelief.
So: Maybe too much negativity and disobedience on this board. Let's all believe in a Brian Nichols positive PR before the first of the year. And if not, Sam--you can play and sing, "These Boots Were Made For Walking (Wandering). Dave
Sam - I think they wandered for 40 years. Does that mean we have 25 more years to wait? If so, TR will be as old as Moses..
My memory is good still, and the old brain still functions quite well with only a few loose marbles. However, the other day when I asked an aide to bring my Sunday paper to me, she answered, "I would Dave, but to-day is Saturday!"
As my time for "transitioning" approaches, I am very blessed by the presence and closeness of angels. I have learned that we don't "pass away", but "pass on" or graduate. For a few of you who have so faithfully held on all these years, I truly hope FASC makes it. It has been good for me to be a part of this board for so many years. I hope to meet a few of you "upstairs", where finally our FASC reunion may be a reality. Dave
TR - Thanks for restating potential irons in the fire. I know of no other stock that has so thoroughly tested the character of those invested in it!!. Feel like the Israelites, wandering around in the wilderness, seeking the "promised land".
I have always valued St. Malo's contribution especially, for if and as it comes to fruition it offers a model program as a basis for considerable Canadian expansion. Dave
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TR - Your ".no, no, yes, yes Sound like any women you might have known?" Makes me think you may have other talents. Converting a double no to a double yes in a woman is something I might have expected only from a man with the charms of RJ. - Dave
Net-Man - In response to "and I believe this is the time to be buying shares", you might be right. But, if so, I shall follow your stradegy--buying only discarded or dumped shares at a steeply discounted price. Then, if wrong, one can get back most of the outlay. If right--whamo!
TR - Says he has been "nibbling" in recent weeks. Judging from our weekly share volume, these must have been in "mini-nibble" quantities.
Not to sound critical, but everyone including you and TR approach FASC in cautious, potentially very cost limiting ways. I remain "numbly positive"--like "Is this the corner just ahead that we have been just around for so long a time". Sorry, if I sound somewhat "de-Lunasized". The hope is still in me. For example, my favorite desert is key lime pie. I have hinted broadly for it for three years in this assisted living facility to management, the kitchen staff, etc.--to no avail. Last week on the menu was "KEY LIME PIE".
I sent a message to the kitchen staff thanking them with a message that read: "If you wish long enough, wish strong enough, your dreams will come true. Wishing will make it so." Perhaps Sam can fill you in on the song this was taken from. Anyway, I think I have wished long enough and strong enough for FASC. Maybe I will see a .03 or better on the menu soon. Dave
Sorry - but my rational mind says that if an investor strongly believed that the odds favored a price of .15 to .25 in not to far down the pike, he or she would be in there buying like crazy at .02 or .025 or higher, and not waiting for bottom picking , distressed sales to add. Who would not go after a ten bagger or better, when he felt that it was shortly forthcoming
The dried up volume, and the indication that only dumped shares are worth buying, indicates that the commitment and the indicated enthusiasm are at somewhat discordant levels. Dave
Doesn't take a genius to figure out that someone wanted to exit 100,000 shares and was willing to take .01 area to get it. Also, in spite of any posts on this board to the contrary, anyone else wanting to exit will see a good 1/3 or better cut off the price. And it multiple shareholders wanted to exit at the same time, no better than .005 to .006 would be the proceeds.
We hold, and the ongoing DD is important to give us some hope. But the reality is that management has to re-assume their responsibility, or we are all stuck in the present scenario. Dave
Sounds like this is all one and the same thing with you!!!
"I really have nothing to do but go down on the beach and do some surf fishing,,,lol. AAAAAAAAAnd watch the bikinis go by,,,love it, love it, love it!!! " Waitedg
Why would we want to buy your shares at .02 when we can buy them for .015 right now on the ask?
beischens - Looks like you are slowly transitioning into a combination of a bottom fisher and a day trader. Today it looks like someone is still willing to buy at .015 (1ooK or so) and there certainly are still sellers in that range. But as buying interest dries up, selling interest will likely--and well may soon head back into that wide spread, no volume deadness of the recent past. Dave - That is unless one of those irons pops out of the fire.
Another way to look at it. Most all the volume is .0152 to .016. I take it that someone wants to add or buy some shares at roughly the 1 1/2 cent area, and there are plenty of longs willing to unload some shares in the .015 to .016 area. Expect volume to slow down to next to nothing again--probably tomorrow-- and nothing happening until we get some news. Dave - Another possible scenario is that someone knows something we don't. In that case high volume will increase with a likely slight increase in price.
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/rt/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=FASC&type=Time%26Sales
So far - looking at the trade information, my interpretation is that someone in interested in buying at .015 to .016--and there are a lot of sellers happy to get out at a penny and a half. the volume appears to have dried up at 600K, and I think we are basically back to status quo again until or unless a PR comes from Brian. - Dave
The volume/price/time factors indicate a strengthening of the stock as the day progressed. Most positive day for longs in quite a while. Would be nice if we had a follow through/continue tomorrow. Dave
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/rt/frt/M?IM=quotes&symbol=FASC&type=Time%26Sales
Dabonenose - Nice timing on that 2.91 re-entry. Almost back to my 3.10 entry point. Waitedg
Latest Seeking Alpha article:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2408675-3-problems-for-dryships-continue-to-loom
Another Conclusion from a Seeking Alpha report:
Conclusion
Just assume the arithmetic and you'll see why DryShips is a promising bargain: DryShips' 60% Ocean Rig stake is worth more than the entire market capitalization of DryShips, implying that investors can still get DryShips' tanker and dry bulk business for nothing.
In addition, DryShips' shares have undeservedly fallen from around $3.50 in June to $2.70 just before the company released solid second quarter earnings, which highlighted strong revenue and EBITDA momentum. Strong Buy.
From a research report:
Conclusion
DryShips is not in an ideal condition but it is making the right moves in order to turn around its business as drybulk carrier business continues to disappoint the investors. OceanRig is an important asset of DryShips as prospects of off-shore drilling are better than the drybulk business at the moment and this asset will continue to support the overall business of the company. As OceanRig has also started to pay dividends, this will further enhance the benefit of holding OceanRig for DryShips. However, concerns about the core business of the company remain as the drybulk market is showing slow recovery. An increase in economic activity might stimulate the demand but the short-medium term prospects of drybulk business remain unclear.
It is sad to see that no one will bid more than .0077 for FASC now
Sleepin - Thanks for inquiring about me. Hospice care continues. Have become weaker and quite tired most of the time. There comes a time when "graduating", as my blind friend calls it, is the preferable choice. Living in final stage life is not easy--and I am ready to be "called home". Have a beautiful picture of the after life and what awaits me. Hope it is sooner rather than later. But I try to do useful things each day--as best I can.
Regarding FASC--I'll be darned if Net-Man will "penny pinch" any of my shares at .01 or even .012. After four years of silence, I just hope Net-Man's beliefs are correct. Have become fatalistic on the subject. I would add to Brian's words this-- "What happens happens." Hope that .20 becomes a reality. But, if it all goes down the drain, so be it also. There is much more to life than what happens to FASC. - Dave
NorCal - Could drop to 2.80, but if so, that should be a solid support level. I am considering adding, but also considering AVP as an alternative. In either case, I am in no hurry to enter now, and may stay on sidelines for next 4 to 5 weeks. May be facing a rather severe, sometime in the August- October time frame, overall market correction. In that case, DRYS could fall to 2.50 or possibly to an even lower support area. Temporarily quite bearish on the market for the coming fall. Waitedg
The 5 day charts on both DRYS and ORIG look very weak--with DRYS hitting a 2.95 low in early market trading. Standing aside now. But considering adding to my initial shares (3.10) if we drop significantly below 3 now. In no hurry as both short term charts look very vulnerable to further drop. Also overall market concerns me. Waitedg
Two factors that cause me concern:
1. St. Malo appears to have no update on the roadblocks to get his project up and running. thought, at one oint, he had everything moving forward.
2. Large multi-unit orders appear to be no longer a consideration.
Might take a quick drop to about the 2.90 area, but 3.00 would appear to be about the stable base. Am worried, however, about an overall rather major market correction during the August-October time frame.
Sam - As with Timex "My body takes a licking, but still keeps on ticking"--at least marginally. Hospice doctor just "extended me" for another possible 90 days until out in September. Get help now with bathing, dressing and a few other personal care items. But the mind is still fairly clear with the exception of a few short term memory issues. And still find appreciation for an attractive aide, as well as good FASC day!
Thanks for the complement of "referee"!! Don't know if others would concur with you. I do believe this. Without TR and Net-Man this board would collapse in about a week. For there would be no positive input, and critical commentary, by itself alone,dries up a board very quickly. I think we need to support and thank both of them for all they have given and continue to give to this board. They need our support as does Brian--even though they have a few flaws of imperfection here and there.
Funny, but when one gets to my stage of life, the term "sunshine club" is not such a bad one. Nice when everyone adds a little sunshine to each day. - Dave
This information is important: You will notice that Mr. Herlihy, a V-P, dumped his entire holdings as the most recent insider transaction. This followed the Barron's write-up which, along with some insider purchases in the 13.30 to 13.50 area, has given the stock a boost. I would be very cautious here, and hold any powder until mid-August at the earliest. If we do go over 15, I may buy some short term mid- August put options. Waitedg
https://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=AVP
Nycrew - I guess I will take a contrarian view to yours. I think we will spin no better than a sideways spin and stay well under the 15 area until news or leaked news of the August 9th earnings report is forthcoming. I see no climb over 15 in the next few weeks. Waitedg
Patric -
I agree that Brian's age should be discussed. Also, is Adam qualified to take over? Adam's capacity and relationship to the company is critical. In earlier years I understood he was only interested in the technical and installation aspects of the KDS--and not motivated or qualified toward the management area. This may have changed. But it is certainly worth concern and discussion.
As regards Brian's age and health, this is a very vital consideration. A few men are very vital and vigorous at this age. Many are not and have moved at least toward a semi-retirement status. I honestly am going mostly on my private conversations with RJ in the past to assess Brian's situation. I take it that in spite of his non-correspondence with us, he is an honest man, and has concern for the shareholders. Our best bet is to support him and hope.
Attacking him over and over is a waste of time and goes no where. Each of us must weight the risks with the potential rewards. If I were to do anything, and I might, it would (or will) be to send an Email of encouragement to Brian--thanking him for keeping us a viable company and not folding the cards. I would add that a handful of us are still believers, and believe he will treat us fairly once the revenue for the financials and current obligation short-term indebtedness is met.
I think you are correct in stating that no one wants to buy substantial quantities here now--other than what can be picked up at current or dumped share prices. Dave
TR - The one thing I would not exclude is your conclusion at the bottom. Let me reprint here:
When I step back and look at overall comparisons, it remains extremely difficult to find a better risk/reward stock in this penny field.
I one hundred percent totally agree with you on this. The risk is perhaps understated. But at about .017,the potential reward here is in many ways also way understated. I am perhaps more bullish even than you on the potential reward. But, I still believe the investor needs to know that his investment might possibly go down the drain unless or until things change with management. I like the odds. I also agree with Net-Man that a better choice would be to totally exit if one is totally down on management.
I think most of us here like relationships where we are supportive of each other in a friendly way. I wish, in this area, our board could improve. Criticism without contribution or appreciation for the the DD that is provided doesn't help. Guess we just keep plodding along doing the best we can. - Dave
TR - I think your comment is basically correct. But, I think the DD you dig up, extensive as it is, does not in general deal with those areas of the company's background that are comprehensive to a total picture--negative as as well as positive.
With an investment, a person should ask the question as to why he or she should consider investing in this particular investment. You and Net-Man do a wonderful service in providing us ongoing and updated information and background in this area.
There is, however, also the second question with any investment. This includes the questions as to why I should maybe not invest in this particular investment--what are its drawbacks, weaknesses. What might the prospective investor be wary of, or perhaps not consider this particular investment.
It is in this second area some feel not a very comprehensive picture is provided, and needs to be. Then a person can better weigh things and decide whether the risk is worth the potential reward, or whether the stock should be avoided. I think we lack much DD in this second area except what Al and Sun Spotter provide,and what I myself pick up here and there. Nothing is perfect, but these are my thoughts. Am still long FASC--and am "hanging on", along with Sam. Dave
Very interesting post. Quite a few insiders were buying when AVP was recently in the 13.30 to 13.50 area. Yet the VP and Chief Information Officer unloaded his entire 23,000 shares around current price. This unloading followed a Barron's article on a very successful hedge fund manager who has been buying AVP recently as a turn-around investment. My thinking is that the August 9th (thereabouts) earnings report will be crucial. It could be very bad, and thus the large August 13 put position that will expire about 10 days later for protection.
On the other hand, it is only costing the investor .35 for protection in case the stock takes off from here. Do believe AVP will be a much different price by end of September, and will be watching the August earnings report carefully. Think it is a turn-around stock, but perhaps not before more very bad quarter gets reported. Only a hunch. Waitedg
Thevi - Take a look at the chart below (one year), and you will see a tendency to pull back to the 3.00 level(or just below it) as a base. Thus technicians think we may likely pull back there again before we move forward.
A case could also be made that we will not pull back again, but may start climbing shortly based more on fundamentals. Sort of have to make your own decision here. I'm in first time at 3.10. My own thoughts are that on the downside we wont go lower than 2.90 short term. On the upside we may be heading for 3.80 or better by end of year. Just my opinion--and I am no expert in DRYS. - Waitedg
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=drys&insttype=&freq=&show=
80K plus 10K and another 10K all at .018. Someone is getting serious--and buying at the ask.- Dave
Nycrew - I have definite interest here--but think it may be too early. The recent Barron's article on AVP is very positive--and it looks like we are in the process of a turnaround. But right after the Barron's article the Chief Information Officer of AVP sold all of his shares--some 23,000..
I thus am staying on the sidelines and watching for the August 9th (approximate) earnings announcement (which may be quite negative), as well as am careful about a possible late summer/fall market correction. Entering AVP at the right time is certainly an interesting possibility. Think it may be a bit too early. Will wait and see. Waitedg
You may recall a few weeks back I made a comparison between FASC and AVP. For those of you who like to be involved in DD, you might like to take a look at the Ihub AVP board. It is simply something to watch and wait for possible later involvement. Just starting a reactivated board here.
TR - Perhaps over-exuberance is not the correct term--but I like to "re-state" you conservatively! So --a question back to you and Net-Man. If we did approach a price of 10 cents, would you partly sell or hold on for 16 cents? -Dave
Net-Man - I have an odd way of calculating the answer to your question:
"So let me pose a question back to you and anyone else that would like to chime in - what is FASC worth next year with a ongoing revenue stream that more than covers costs combined with machine sales?"
You take TR's calculations which result in a figure of 16 cents. You deduct 60% for TR's "over-exuberance"-and come out with a price of .096. You divide that by an average current price of .016 and you have a 6 bagger. Any more questions? - Dave
PS - By the way is that you picking up the approximate 250K in the .0156 area today. Remember--you only need one new plane!!
Net-Man - The obvious conclusion is that others highly question your words--for, if they did concur, the price of the stock would relate accordingly. "Six machine sales this year and more in the pipeline" should have investors running to the brokers to buy. You and TR appear to be the only ones interested in buying--and as per the volume, your interest in this area appears to be quite muted.
Your DD may be very true--but most everyone is saying, the proof is in the pudding--and only management will resolve this. My statement here is so obvious, it appears to me as only warmed over, repeated verbiage. We have nothing else to say. Dave
Well, the bid is now .0111 and ask is .0166--nearly equal shares on bid and ask. No one will buy unless they can pick up at near a penny. This assures selling at a minimum loss. It shows again something we all know--without management involvement we just go on vegetating here.