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As Amigo Mike predicted in July, AMNF reported a 3Q 2018 somewhat softer than the company's all time record breaking performance in Q2 2018. Q2 may have been helped in part by customers stocking up on product prior to AMNF raising prices, causing a bit of a subsequent letdown in Q3.
Nevertheless, Q3 2018 was still the company's second best quarter ever. Sales were up 7% and operating income before taxes was up 12% over Q3 2017. Q3 net operating income after taxes was up a stellar 36% YoY, no doubt helped along by the reduction in federal corporate income tax rates that became effective in 2018.
Overall, Q3 2018 was another very solid quarter for AMNF. The company continues to invest in efforts to expand production capacity and efficiency, some of which should be in place near the end of this year or soon after. New products are being developed and digital marketing efforts are being improved. Management reports that the company continues to enjoy a very strong cash position.
Still wish AMNF would find a way to broaden geographical product distribution. As far as I know, AMNF's products remain unavailable in my region. Very happy with the performance of AMNF's stock, though! Looking look forward to collecting another nice dividend on October 26th.
AMNF turns in a smashing 2Q 2018! Sales up 12%, income before taxes up 24%, and net income up 51%. All these increases are versus 2Q 2017, which until now was the company's best quarter ever for both sales and income.
The huge increase in net income was significantly driven by the reduction in the federal corporate tax rate which went into effect at the start of 2018.
Looking ahead, AMNF reports adequate cash on hand and a strong sales pipeline. In 1Q 2018 the company started using some of the additional cash flow resulting from the corporate tax rate reduction to invest in strategic initiatives related to product development, digital marketing, and tax planning. These investments will continue at least through the remainder of 2018.
3Q 2018 sales might be somewhat weaker due to customers ordering extra product in 2Q in advance of a price increase that took effect July 1st. AMNF mentioned rising cost pressures in their 1Q 2018 report, which I speculated at the time might mean AMNF would increase prices sometime this year.
Wish AMNF would do something about increasing the geographic availability of their product line (distribution). As far as I know, AMNF's products aren't available in the area where I live. Management seems to know what they are doing, though. Practically every quarter since I invested in AMNF some years ago now, the company has reported either record sales, income, or both. The dividend has more than doubled, too, with a nice boost almost every year.
All the hot money seems to have left the stock over the past few years. The price hasn't moved up all that much despite consistently good reports, and volume has sort of dried up. Maybe AMNF stock is now poised for better market performance? Getting hard to believe that won't be the case, if they can keep delivering quarters like this last one. I'm certainly happy with AMNF today, and intend to continue to stick around hopeful for more of the same in the future.
Record 2018Q1 sales up 4%, but operating income was down 3%. Net income was up a strong 18% benefiting from recent tax law changes. EBITDA was up 1%. All these figures are for 2018Q1 versus 2017Q1.
These results show weakening operating performance due to some margin pressure, though overall net profits benefited in a major way from the new lower corporate tax rates. Part of the margin deterioration was due to investment in a strategic planning initiative to improve future sales and profitability. However, management also cited rising cost pressures for raw materials and packaging.
Asian market sales turned in the first strong performance in a while. Management made no mention of significant unspecified sales opportunities being entertained currently as they have sometimes done in the past. They did mention actively managing costs and margins going forward.
Overall, a solid, but not stellar Q1 for AMNF. It's possible it would have been better had bad weather in the NE USA not postponed some orders. The recent 12.5% dividend boost is a nice benefit to shareholders. Company continues to grow, maintaining a strong balance sheet and healthy order pipeline.
Rising cost pressures are a concern. We shall see how effectively they can be controlled. Expect AMNF to boost prices sometime later this year to help maintain margins.
AMNF smashing it again in Q4 2017! Record sales up 12%, net income from continuing operations before taxes up 15%, net income including one-time gains up 53%.
More good news to come in 2018 as well. Federal tax rate drops from 34% to 21% in 2018. New plant completed in 2017 enables push into new markets. Strong cash position enabling more promotional efforts. Domestic pipeline is strong.
Negatives? Asian markets remain weak. Management didn't mention it, but I've read recently that California might increase state corporate taxes to take about half of the recent federal corporate tax reduction away. Don't know what the status of that possibility is.
AMNF looking fine, doing good! Q3 sales up 7% over 2016 Q3. Highest quarterly earnings ever, with an increase in earnings per share of 15% over 2016 Q3. Plant expansion completed on time and within budget. Now operating out of the new facility.
A little choppy water in Asia with sales still sluggish there, other than that - smooth sailing. Our ship is coming in!
Q1 2017 set records for a Q1 with sales (+1%) and profits (+3%) up over Q1 2016 despite a 2nd Q in a row of weakness in Asian markets. The plant expansion is still expected to be complete by the end of Q3 2017.
The big news was that subsequent to the end of Q1, AMNF secured business from a new and substantial US customer. This important news bodes well for the future. The company anticipates fulfilling initial orders in the next few months.
This is great news! Lack of adequate distribution has held AMNF back for a long time. With the new plant expansion being completed soon, AMNF is in a strong position to fulfill orders from this and other new customers. The company has often referred to unspecified exciting new opportunities that they have been working on in quarterly reports over the past several years. Maybe this new customer is the start of the realization of some of these possibilities? At any rate, although Q1 2107 saw only modest increases to results, the company appears poised for accelerated growth.
Hang in there, everyone. Looking like a strong finish to 2017 for AMNF to me!
Oh, I do like it! AMNF is one of the few stocks I've held onto in this increasingly overpriced market. Lots to like here. I do expect it to trade a little softer after this last mildly disappointing quarterly report, but still expect great things ahead. Furthermore, it's barely more than 2 months until AMNF will likely report Q1 2017 results in mid-April, so good news may not be that long in coming. I'm not going anywhere. Been well rewarded over time for sticking with AMNF, and look forward to more of the same.
Record 2016 sales (+3%) and net income (+5%) despite a weaker Q4. Q4 2016 was down compared to Q4 2015 for both sales (-5%) and net income (-6%). Management cites notably weaker Asian sales due to a weaker economy in that part of the world as the reason. The domestic market remained strong.
The company's previously announced $3.5 million expansion plans to keep up with food safety requirements and expected sales increases are expected to be complete by the end of Q3 2017. AMNF also continues to invest in promotional efforts.
Management cites several exciting and significant opportunities they expect to close in 2017, but without giving any details.
AMNF remains financially solid. Management continues to express a cautiously optimistic outlook. 2016 was another record breaking year. Q4 2016 was another solid and profitable quarter, but not another record-breaker.
Q3 2016 sets all-time record for profits and sales! Sales up 11%, earnings up 15% YoY. $3.5M plant expansion in the works to double production capacity by early Q2 2017. Chuck declared stock guru!
Another AMNF dividend increase, and a quarter earlier than I was expecting it. Quarterly dividend is now up to $0.02 per share. When will it ever end?
Q1 2016 YoY record sales (+10%) and net profits (+13%). Significant new customer, need to expand to meet expected demand. Sounds good to me. Steady as she goes!
Record Q4 & 2015 sales and profits! Sounds like more good news is on the way. AMNF just keeps growing nice and steady. Sooner or later, the stock price will move up again and shatter the former highs. Till then, just keep collecting the already nice and growing dividends while the rest of the world buys government bonds at negative interest rates for a guaranteed loss!
Trueheart, how do you know that large blocks of stock are being sold by insiders? If true, it seems like potentially important information and a red flag.
Banner Q3 2015 for Kingstone! YoY direct written premiums up 22.1%, net income up 24.5%, earnings per share up 23.1%. Kingstone now an admitted carrier in 3 more states in addition to New York: Texas, Connecticut & New Jersey. Dividend raised 25% to $0.0625 per share.
Where else are you going to get this kind of growth in a stock paying a solid 2.5% dividend, and trading at a PE of only around 11?! All this in a company with no long term debt.
Looks like exciting times ahead for Kingstone shareholders. Excellent job by management and the crew.
Of course, maybe Amazon at a PE of 950, with no dividend and 40% debt/assets is a better choice. Lots of people seem to be buying it. Personally, my money is on KINS.
A mildly disappointing Q3 for AMNF. Weakness in the stock in the weeks prior to the Q3 report might easily have been due to a combination of concerns about the China slowdown and resulting overall general market weakness, and the simple expectation that since Q3 of 2014 had been so strong, it was just going to be a very tough comparable to beat. Some may have just played the odds and taken some profits.
What was surprising to me was the sharp drop in the percentage of Asian sales from 13% in Q3 2014 to only 7% in Q3 2015. That's approaching a 50% drop in sales to Asia. I would have thought that food sales would have been far less volatile than that, even if there was a China panic going on. After all, isn't food one of the last things one wants to give up when times get tough?
Still it's best if a sudden panic did lead to the sharp drop in orders. If the change was due to a competitor gaining market share rapidly, that would be much worse, since it would imply that business isn't coming back.
At any rate, since Asian sales near the end of Q3 2015 and start of Q4 2015 are reportedly stronger than the overall pace for Q4 2014, that's encouraging news to say the least. Asian sales at the end of 2014 were reported to be at their highest levels ever for AMNF. So maybe a panic buyer's strike led to some inventory getting used up (people didn't really quit eating) and AMNF might be in for a bit of a pop in Q4 2015.
I had gotten pretty excited about the growth path for AMNF after Q3 2014 since those numbers were pretty darn strong. It looked like AMNF's growth rate was ratcheting up. The first hiccup for AMNF was really the disappointing Q4 2014, which showed that the longer term pace of sales increase was really not nearly as fast as Q3 had implied. Still, both Q1 & Q2 2015 were pretty good - by Q2 AMNF set another sales record.
It's hard to get too excited about the "several exciting prospects" Pera mentions in the Q3 2015 report, since we are given no specifics at all. However, I can get excited about rising cash levels, and the prospect of AMNF paying off all of its long term debt by the end of Q2 2017. Go check out the debt levels of Coke, General Mills, Kellogg's, etc. (Yea, that's part of why I own AMNF instead!) AMNF is in a strong financial position to remain viable even if problems do develop for a while.
I do agree with AMNF's strategy of spending some on advertising to drive demand. It seems to me that the key to accelerating growth is in wider distribution rather than tinkering with recipes or additional products. AMNF's products are not available at all where I live.
I've understood that just a few distributors move a lot of product for AMNF here in the States. If AMNF can pick up new distributors or whatever it takes to give more people the opportunity to buy, that could really get things rolling.
That's another reason to own AMNF rather than an S&P 500 food company that is already worldwide - AMNF has more opportunities for expansion. Whether AMNF can make good on those opportunities remains to be seen, but at least it's within the realm of possibility.
With the somewhat disappointing Q3 2015 report, in the absence of other news, AMNF stock may languish or drift lower until the year end 2015 report in February 2016. It's a long time to wait. That's what I plan to do, though. In the meantime, I'm collecting a pretty decent and safe dividend for this market. (In fact, we are getting paid tomorrow!)
If the market wants to beat AMNF stock up too badly, I might just look for an opportunity to add back some of the shares I lost in the divorce this spring. I still have some cash making 0.01% per annum in money markets. Could get 3500+ times that return right now with AMNF. Think about that! 3.5 millennia's worth of yield from AMNF in a single year compared to the return in a money market fund. Of course, there's always risk. And 3500 times next to nothing isn't necessarily a fortune.
I agree with Amigo Mike, based on what we know so far, I'm considering Q3 2015 a non-event, though things always bear watching. Sales were down 2.4% YOY in Q3, not exactly a catastrophe yet.
Take care, all! Let me know if I'm being an idiot! Always willing to listen to new information/other points of view.
Dividend increase to $0.019 per quarter from $0.018 per quarter today. Nice!
Thanks for the info on the other boards, hweb2! I was unaware of them. Don't spend much time on IH, but I would be interested in seeing that kind of information. Will check it out when the dog and I return from adventuring out west in September.
And yes, I don't know what the market reaction will be even if KINS reports the type of good numbers I'm expecting. If results are decent, though, and management still gives conservative well-reasoned thoughts on why the company should continue to do well, I'm willing to just collect the dividend and wait. Maybe even go overweight and buy a bit more if it drops significantly.
MLR was in a similar position to KINS and recently reported about as I expected (maybe even a bit better), and the reaction was quite encouraging. I like that one too, but only had a 40% position on. Haven't bought more, as it gapped up right away. Don't like it as well as KINS right now, but there isn't much I can find to like at all in this current market, and MLR does seem to fit most of the parameters I look for.
Finished adding a full position (for me) in KINS today. Had to, because I'm pretty optimistic about the upcoming earnings report due out after the market closes on 8-12-15. Have an average price around $7.65 per share. Going on vacation next week and since this was Friday, it was my last chance to finish buying before earnings.
(Wish I'd been more nimble or had some low orders in place, on May 7th there was a flash crash in the stock down to $6.11. The stock was back above $7.00 before I even saw it. After it dropped so far in the blink of an eye, I wanted to buy below $7.00, but it never gave me the chance.)
Here's why I like KINS:
(1) Small cap - This little P&C insurance company has a market cap of only $56 million. The company operates in New York state in the USA. It's too small for the company to be fundamentally affected by most of the world's news flow. It doesn't really matter much to KINS if something bad happens in the Ukraine, China or Middle East.
(2) Low debt - KINS has no debt. The world is kind of a scary place these days. I like companies that are financially solid enough to survive a downturn, if one comes along. Low debt means the company is in a great position to hang in there when the going gets tough.
(3) Low PE and PEG. PE is only 10.45. 2015 Q1 direct written premiums were up 19.2% YoY. Net income was up 16.8% YoY. This was despite pretty bad weather in Q1 of 2015, when company had high claims due to frozen pipes and water damage.
(4) Decent & Growing Dividends - At today's (8-7-15) closing price of $7.64, the $0.05 quarterly dividend amounts to a 2.62% yield. Not really as much as I'd like. I prefer to see at least 3.00%. However, in Q3 of 2014 the company announced a 25% dividend increase from $0.04 per quarter to $0.05 per quarter. Since earnings have been strong in the past year, I suspect KINS will announce an increase to $0.06 in the 3rd Q of 2015. That would be a 20% increase and bring the yield up to 3.14%, which is acceptable. The dividend increase announcement could come as early as next Wednesday with the 2015 Q2 earnings report.
(5) Sustainable products - Tech kind of scares me. Today your company has the greatest electronic gadget or software ever. In 6 months it's old news and behind the competition's latest release. KINS is selling property & casualty insurance. Pretty likely they will still be selling it 6 months, 6 years and maybe even 6 decades from now. And it won't have to be 10 or 100 times better insurance for 1/10 of the price it was a few years back.
(6) Little government influence - Well OK, everything is affected by the colossus government, but I don't want to own target companies the politicians love to hate (and fine) like tobacco, asbestos, big banks, big oil, big coal, etc. Not wild about KINS operating in NY where the attorney general is just itching to make your company a scapegoat and level record setting fines, but the P&C insurance industry isn't a favorite target that I know of. KINS is too small too, to be of particular interest on the government's radar screen.
(7) Positive recent news - Earnings have been growing significantly the last 2 years from $0.20 in 2012, to $0.50 in 2013, to $0.72 in 2014. On 5-19-15, AM Best upgraded KINS' financial strength rating from B+ to B++. On 7-10-15, the company announced the signing of new reinsurance treaties, which should help earnings under most circumstances. Even though 2015 Q1 earnings were only $0.06 per share, the harsh weather impacted results. Management still talked quite positively about the future. Pipes certainly weren't freezing in Q2, so I expect much stronger results to be announced for Q2. TD Ameritrade shows expected earnings of $0.28 per share for both Q2 & Q3 of 2015.
So that's it. Despite not liking the general market here (kind of scary technical and fundamental situations in my opinion), I still think it's fairly likely KINS will release a good 2015 Q2 earnings report after the market closes next Wednesday, 8-12-15. There's a good chance of a 20% increase in the dividend then or soon after too. If Q2 turns out not to be that great, KINS is still a solid little company that pays a dividend and seems to have at least some reasonable growth prospects. I've got my full position in place. Still 3 trading days left for any other courageous souls to buy at least a partial position too.
Trading Notes: The past few days I saw a buy order in place for 10,000 shares at $7.60. None of it filled as far as I could tell, although at times it was the highest bid. Today (Friday, 8-7-15), there were 2,700 shares asking $7.64 virtually all day long. I bought half that many (1,350) shares in the last half hour of trade and the TD Ameritrade screen showed 1,400 shares asked at $7.64 just before the close.
Recent low was the 5-7-15 flash crash to $6.11. That was the only day since 2015 Q1 earnings it was below $7.05. Although I've been watching, the lowest I've actually seen the price since Q1 earnings were released was $7.10. Yes, I know, should have bought then. Hindsight is so wonderful - and useless.
Recent high was a spike up to $7.99 on 7-21-15, which was quickly rejected, too. Don't really expect KINS to do much of anything in the 3 days before earnings are released (it barely traded at all today), but you never know.
This is a small company. The stock doesn't trade at all for hours at a time. Always use limit orders. Don't place market orders. If you need deep liquidity, this isn't it - run the other way!
Disclosure: I have no inside information or special knowledge of the company. I could be wrong. Have been before (more than once!). I'm no expert. If you buy in and the stock goes down, I will be gone until September, so you will have to wait until then to scream at me. Won't do you or me any good anyway. I will feel bad enough as it is. If you buy in, good luck, hope we and KINS do fabulously!
Thanks, Trueheart. Not sure I like the way AMNF has traded technically these last 2 days, but as far as I know, the company is sound and growing. I have no plans to sell. Might even add a little, if the trading gets too crazy.
As I mentioned before, I don't like the overall market. 6.5 years of up without a significant lasting correction, lackluster economy and earnings results, lots of geopolitical problems, China slowing (I don't believe their numbers and think it may be much worse than they let on - might already be in recession), Fed might start tightening, countries everywhere loaded with debt and running everlasting deficits, etc.
Sold most positions the first week of December last year. Hardly have anything left except AMNF, which I kept all of and still have a big position (for me) in, and a smattering of just a few other stocks that are very small positions.
The overall market seems scary, both technically and fundamentally. Maybe there could be another big collapse coming. There are a lot of possible triggers out there. If so, even AMNF will get whacked to some extent.
Mostly sitting in cash, waiting for a decent general market correction. Even if that occurs, whether I jump in again or not will depend on the nature of whatever the triggering crisis is.
However, I'm still open to possibilities. There are two stocks I've been buying this year despite all of the above. Just finished putting on a full position in KINS. If you are interested in ideas, I will post my reasoning on the Investor's Hub message board for KINS shortly. Like on everything else, keep in mind I have no inside information and there are no guarantees at all that I'm not dead wrong. Wouldn't be the 1st time!
AMNF has a flash crash like this every now and then. Just a small, thinly traded stock. When someone with a lot of shares wants to dump them, it really affects things for a little while. Don't know of any fundamental reason there should have been such a large move. Saw it briefly at $2.13 bid at one point. Usually these flash crashes have been great buying opportunities of very limited duration.
However, I would note that this one occurred about the same time that the overall market was near the lows of the day. I think there is a connection. Someone could have been raising cash due to a margin call on other positions. Do people put trailing stops in on little company's stocks? I don't even know if you can. If so, maybe a bunch of automatic sell stops were being hit.
The technical strength of the overall market has been deteriorating all year. In general, there just isn't an awful lot of good news out there. The economy and earnings are mixed. A lot of worrisome geopolitical things are going on. In addition, the Fed is scarier than it has been in a long time with the market wondering now every few months if the next meeting will be the one where they start to tighten. If they do tighten, which I don't necessarily expect, the market may react very poorly. I don't like the overall market here and haven't for quite a while now. I still like AMNF, but it can get knocked down with the rest of the market.
In 2014, the 3rd Q was the strongest of the year for AMNF. So there is a tough comparable coming up. On the other hand, if it is the strongest Q again this year, more good news on AMNF is heading our way. We just won't know it until the 2nd half of October.
One other thing to think about: I believe it has been nearly a year since the last dividend raise. It's possible they will raise it again soon, since the company has been doing quite well. I don't think they really need to, the company pays out a pretty healthy percentage now. Still it would be nice and supportive of the stock assuming business is still good.
Which reminds me: I'm seeing big companies report rather disappointing results, yet they announce multi-billion $ buybacks to support the stock. Bad strategy. It's not good for shareholders in the long term to squander their cash buying back shares when they are overpriced.
If AMNF's fundamentals really aren't deteriorating (no indication of that from the company so far) and yet AMNF goes through a technically weak period, maybe the company will buy some shares back when they are a bargain. That would be a smart thing for the company to do and good for us shareholders in the long term.
Added to position late yesterday at $17.92. MLR stock has been very weak of late despite being in good financial condition and trying to meet increasing demand. Dividend is now up to 3.59% at yesterday's close of $17.82. Will add more on further weakness.
Great AMNF 2nd Q earnings report out! Sales up 17.5% and earnings per share up 20% over 2nd Q of 2014.
I'm pretty certain that 2015 2nd Q sales were at their highest level ever for any quarter in the few years that I've been in AMNF. Highest sales in 2014 occurred in the 3rd Q, so there is a tough comparable coming up. Even so, sales in the just released 2015 2nd Q were 3.6% higher than in 2014 3rd Q.
AMNF is a little company that just keeps doing things right and getting bigger. Low debt, nice dividend that periodically gets raised significantly (the dividend is up 80% in the few years I've been in AMNF), sensible and capable management, endless potential for growth. Not doing anything fancy with this one - just holding on and making money.
After a mildly disappointing Q4 2014, AMNF is right back with record sales and profits for Q1 in 2015. Ho hum... same old thing. Gotta love it!
3 big negatives were contained in CNRD's 3rd quarter earnings report released after the market closed on 11-13-14:
(1) No $2.00 special dividend declared for December 2014 as in 2012 & 2013.
(2) Earnings came in at $0.74 per share vs $1.09 per share in Q3 of 2013. Earnings were $1.14 per share in Q2 of 2014. Conrad had been earning over $1.00 per share consistently in recent quarters until now.
(3) The order backlog dropped to $135.0 million on 9-30-14 vs. $173.0 million on 6-30-14 and $152.3 million on 9-30-13.
Of these 3 negatives, it was the last one that was the most alarming and caused me to sell out my entire position in CNRD. In each of the previous 4 quarters CNRD had revenue of roughly $80 million. The $38.0 million drop in the backlog between the end of Q2 & Q3 this year suggests new orders were only about 1/2 of normal in Q3, assuming revenues were about normal during the quarter.
Since CNRD did not include figures for either revenues or new orders in their Q3 earnings release, it's hard to know exactly what happened. Certainly it is possible new orders were lower during the quarter just due to ordinary variations in order flow for expensive products like the various ships and barges CNRD produces. What I did not expect and what was really alarming to me, though, was the timing of this event. CNRD produces various ships for the offshore oil & gas industry. Oil prices peaked in Q2 of 2014, but were still pretty high and only lost ground slowly during nearly all of Q3. If customers were already becoming concerned in Q3 about making commitments to capital expenditures, the plunge in oil prices in Q4 will almost certainly result in slashed capital budgets and a screeching halt to order flow from CNRD's most important customers.
CNRD dropped from a closing price of $39.90 on 11-13-14, the day Q3 earnings were reported after the close, to as low as $31.95 the next day when it managed to close at $34.25. The closing price today, 12-5-14, is $34.95. That's not far below where CNRD has been trading nearly all of 2014 before oil prices plunged and CNRD reported the significant drop in order backlog. Think of CNRD as at least partially an oil services company and then look at the charts for other companies in the oil services industry. There may be a reasonable explanation for what is going on at CNRD, but with only the sketchy information contained in the Q3 earnings report to go on, I believe there is justifiable cause for alarm at CNRD's current stock price.
CNRD is a great well-managed company with virtually no debt, so I'm confident it will survive and eventually prosper again, but I will not be re-establishing a position in CNRD until oil prices stabilize for a significant period of time. Capital intensive industries tend to have long cycles and it may be a long time before the outlook improves. Buy CNRD again when you hear that home prices are depressed in Williston, ND due to the collapse of the oil patch. Oil will come back. It always does, but I'm not expecting any V-shaped bottom unless OPEC really gets its act together.
Chuck, you are probably right about loading up the boat on AMNF. Last quarter's earnings report was the best one ever in the few years I've been in the stock. Really stellar! The acceleration of growth in both sales and income is very encouraging. I hope for all of us it is a good indicator of things yet to come. I like everything I know about AMNF, except that the company is headquartered in the People's Republic of California.
Unfortunately, my stock portfolio provides my only source of income. I don't have the other forms of diversification you do - no other income and no other significant assets. (Unless I want to sell my house and live under an attractive bridge somewhere, but I'm a bit far north for that this time of year.) So I feel I must be diversified in the stock market. Even though AMNF is my favorite stock, I don't dare take too much larger a position. It is already my largest position by far. At my age, I really don't want to have to start a new career as a Wal-Mart greeter, if I make a big boo-boo.
Actually, while I feel very comfortable with AMNF, I have been raising cash like crazy lately. (Keeping all my AMNF and a few other things.) The market is up 2,000 DOW points since mid-October, and after nearly 6 years of straight up, I'm not at all sanguine about the general market. I've under-performed the general market in the 2nd half of 2014 for the first time since I started investing in stocks a few years ago.
When I look at the many bio-tech stocks up 50-100% since mid-year I understand why. Many of those companies have exorbitant PE's or are losing money, which is why I don't hold any of them. If I did have a portfolio full of them, I think I would hit the sell button on January 2nd, 2015 and take a year to figure out how to minimize the tax consequences. Are bio-techs the new internet bubble stocks? I don't know, but things don't go up at their recent rate forever.
In reading some of the other recent message board comments, I see some are hoping for an AMNF buyout or more publicity to move the stock up fast. A quick profit is hard to quarrel with, but I really prefer to see AMNF keep chugging along doing what it's doing. The longer it flies under the radar the better, as far as I'm concerned. I'd rather wait some years collecting growing dividends and have a $9.00 buyout on a $6.00 stock, or a $15.00 buyout on a $10.00 stock, than a $3.00 buyout on a $2.00 stock.
I wouldn't feel that way, if I knew of other companies similar to AMNF to invest in, if AMNF got taken over, but I don't know of anything else I like as well. If AMNF never gets bought out and just spends the next several decades becoming the Coca-Cola of quality Italian foods, I'd be plenty happy with that!
Anyway, Merry Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year 2015 to you Chuck (and everyone else here). And may AMNF's last earning's report set the pattern for future ones! Maybe I'll short some bio-techs on December 31st. If it works out, I can buy more AMNF! ;P
Greetings, Chuck! My apologies if I sounded contemptuous to you. I just intended to kid around a bit with econ1, not to offend you in any way. I admire your guts as well as your stock selection. AMNF has been and continues to be my favorite stock, and I would be better off today if I had put more of my assets into AMNF back when I was allocating capital. It's absolutely true that your job and investments outside the stock market represent diversification of income streams. Don't know how long you've been in AMNF, but you either actually have the stellar results I referred to if you've been in it a few years, or I trust you will have them as time goes by if you stick with it.
And yep, I am getting old. In fact I've never been this old before in my whole life and it's a sorry thing to have happen, but as they say - it beats the alternative... at least so far.
So anyway, I hope you cheer up. I am cheering for you not jeering at you.
econ1: With permission from the always cordial Amigo Mike, I will go temporarily off topic here. I've entered comments on 3 stocks that I like on other message boards for you. The stocks are Miller Industries (MLR), Conrad Industries (CNRD), and Lindsay Corporation (LNN). See what you think!
Of course, if you wanted to truly get ahead in life, you could be like Chuck and just go all in on the best bet out there, AMNF! Amazingly it looks like we might sink below $2.00 again for a while despite quarter after quarter of record earnings and/or revenues. Buy the rumor and sell the fact, I guess. So an opportunity might be coming soon to load up! I'm just not as bold as Chuck - something about the word "diversification" keeps me from duplicating Chuck's stellar results.
econ1: Lindsay closed at a price of $83.72 yesterday. I have a small position that I acquired over a year ago around $75.00. I am considering adding to the position, but perhaps not just yet. Here is how LNN stacks up against my criteria:
(1) Small Cap - LNN has a market capitalization of $1B.
(2) Low Debt - The company has no long term debt and a quick ratio of 2.6.
(3) Sustainable Products - Water is an increasingly precious resource. If you believe global warming theories, drought may become increasingly common creating growing demand for irrigation equipment. Road infrastructure should continue to be in demand. (Wish I'd invested at the beginning with whatever company first came out with all those endless orange cones in construction zones everywhere! They sure sold a few of those!)
(4) Little Government Influence - In some drought prone high population areas governments may take water rights away from agriculture. Still, there are growing numbers of people on the planet and no one is going to willingly quit eating. Food has to be grown somewhere.
(5) Low or Reasonable PE and PEG ratios - The PE at yesterday's closing price was 20.94. The yield adjusted PEG ratio for LNN is 0.99 based on the average of the 3, 4 & 5 year historical eps growth rates. The PE is somewhat higher than I like. The PEG ratio is OK.
(6) Decent & Growing Dividends - The dividend is 1.29% which I consider quite low. The company doubled the dividend in February 2014 and raised it another 3.8% in August 2014. Doubling is good!
(7) Positive Recent Information - Quite a spotty record here. The company's fortunes tend to follow the agricultural industry. Earnings have been substantially lower in the past year due to low crop prices. The company also sold an irrigation system in Iraq, which has only partially been installed due to the wars going on there. The company has not been able to complete the Iraq project, which could result in a charge-off at some point. The company expects slow sales in the irrigation division until crop prices improve. The infrastructure division is doing well. On 10-9-14 Lindsay reported better than expected earnings due to higher irrigation sales as a result of storm damage. This may only be a one time factor, but took the market by surprise.
NOTE: Others have a very negative view on Lindsay's stock. As of 10-15-14 over 42% of the stock's float was held short. Maybe they are all right and I'm wrong, but if really good news comes out there could be a truly explosive price rally. I don't see any catalyst at this time to get the price moving up. However, crop prices are now very low due to very favorable weather patterns and abundant harvests this year. I doubt crop prices will drop a whole lot farther, so the bad news should be mostly in the stock price already. Sooner or later a year will come along when weather conditions cause those prices to spike again. LNN is likely to soar with them. I am willing to wait. I might add to my position by early next year. I notice grain futures rallied starting in February this year, although the good weather ultimately caused them to collapse as summer went on. Perhaps a seasonal pattern?
econ1: Conrad Industries closing price yesterday was $37.00. I do hold CNRD now. I acquired it a couple of years ago around $20.00. Conrad operates 4 shipyards in Texas and Louisiana. Here is how it currently stacks up against my criteria:
(1) Small Cap - Market cap is about $220M.
(2) Low Debt - No long term debt, 2.62 quick ratio, 1,930.2 X interest coverage.
(3) Sustainable Products - Until recently, I was quite complacent on this factor thinking that shipbuilding should be quite a stable, if somewhat slow growth industry. However, I believe Conrad does a significant amount of work for the offshore oil and gas industry. The recent notable oil price slide and growing fears of an oil glut are a real concern. Drilling for oil under the ocean has to be a very expensive way to find it and so I am particularly concerned about off-shore drilling both in the short term and long term. A sustained downturn in oil prices may be a sign to get out of CNRD for a while. CNRD's order backlog number bears watching for signs of deterioration. So far no problems, but....
(4) Little Government Influence - Conrad sells some product to governments, however, I don't believe it is overly dependent on government contracts. Nor do I think that shipbuilding is a particularly over-regulated industry or an industry that is a political target relative to other industries.
(5) Low or Reasonable PE and PEG ratios - The PE is 7.39. The 3, 4 and 5 year historical average earnings growth rate is 25.39% for a PEG of 0.29. I'd consider these numbers very favorable.
(6) Decent & Growing Dividends - Officially the company pays no dividend. However, in both 2012 and 2013 the company paid a special dividend of $2.00 per share each December. (5.40% at the current price of $37.00 per share. You could collect 10.80% in the next 14 months if CNRD continues this practice.) I'm hoping that since the company has had a good year so far in 2014, that this will recur. No guarantee at all on this, of course.
(7) Positive Recent Information - In August 2014 Bristol Harbor Group announced it is designing a 3,000 cubic meter LNG barge to be built by Conrad. In September, GTT announced it is designing LNG membrane tanks to be built by Conrad.
Summary: Low oil prices are a genuine concern for Conrad's shipbuilding business. However, it also looks like Conrad is actively preparing to get into the LNG transport barge business, which is a growing business. Last year CNRD announced 3rd Q earnings for 2013 and the special $2.00 dividend on 11-13-13. I expect they will make an announcement sometime around 11-12-14 this year.
econ1: Yesterday's close was $17.49. MLR is a stock I do not hold, but am giving serious consideration to right now. The company manufactures vehicle towing and recovery equipment with manufacturing plants in the US, France & UK. How it stacks up against my criteria:
(1) Small Cap - Market cap is only a little over $200M.
(2) Low Debt - No long term debt, 1.94 quick ratio, 40.16 X interest coverage.
(3) Sustainable Products - I don't see why a need for wrecking and towing equipment should dry up and blow away, or why a competitor is likely to come up with dramatically improved versions.
(4) Little Government Influence - MLR sells some product to governments, but I don't believe the industry is especially over-regulated or a political target relative to other industries.
(5) Low or Reasonable PE and PEG - 18.45 PE end of trading yesterday (although stock is up significantly today, 15.7% YOY revenue growth and 16.8% YOY net income growth last reported Q (2nd Q 2014). So PE and PEG both reasonable, but somewhat higher than I like.
(6) Decent & Growing Dividends - 3.43% this morning before stock's rise. Dividend last raised by 7.1% in March 2014. I'd consider a repeat likely in March 2015, so I would be happy with both the current dividend and prospects for an increase.
(7) Positive Recent Information - In most recent quarterly report (8-6-14) management talks about a challenging, but improving economic environment, increased order flow and backlog, and actively bidding on attractive global projects.
The company reports again very soon. Like possibly next week. The chart looks positive as today the stock is breaking higher after failing to set a new low versus early Oct. However, the price is still under the 200 day moving average.
econ1, if only I could send you a list of stocks meeting my criteria as well as AMNF! I'm still looking for them myself, but apparently they don't exist except during market panics. AMNF is my favorite holding for what I consider a lot of good reasons!
Still, I would at least send you some ideas, except that I can't send you a private reply (I'm not a paying Ihub member) and understandably it's against their policy to allow off topic discussions on any given message board. I don't want to break their rules and lose what privileges I do have here.
When I've got some time over the next few days, I will figure out how to respond to your request. Thanks for the idea you shared. I will take a look at it.
Amigo, if AMNF continues growing at the pace it has been recently, it is inevitable that sooner or later the stock price launches well above the $2.00 mark. So far all the Q3 earnings report seems to have done for us is to get AMNF from trading just below $2.00 to just above it. That's still progress.
Once the mover higher starts it may really take off. I held AMNF for a long time while it churned around between $0.80 to $0.90 despite good reports. Finally it crept up to $1.00 and then suddenly took off in 2013 and doubled. This year we have just been digesting those gains as some investors take profits.
I'm not predicting another double in a year again, as that move took place from a much lower PE (10.50) than where AMNF is at now in a general market that was appreciating 30% in 2013 too. However, I could still see a move higher to close to $3.00 occurring sometime in 2015 with continued strong earnings reports.
I am always looking for stocks with the following characteristics:
(1) Small Cap - So there is room for lots of growth.
(2) Low Debt - So the company will stay in business despite setbacks.
(3) Sustainable Products - So the company doesn't collapse suddenly when a competitor comes up with a better widget.
(4) Little Government Influence - Can't escape the government no matter where you go these days. But I don't want companies that are heavily dependent on government contracts or are political targets likely to get killed by fines or crushing regulations.
(5) Low or at least reasonable PE and PEG ratios - So I'm not over paying for the company's prospects.
(6) Decent & Growing Dividends - I am in stocks to make money! A company that can't ever pay any out to shareholders seems not confident of it's future to me. Corporate stock buybacks are a plus too.
(7) Positive Recent Information About the Company - If things aren't getting any better for the company, why own the stock? That doesn't mean I sell every time something negative happens (occasional setbacks are inevitable), but the overall trend should be positive.
AMNF fits all of these criteria as far as I'm concerned. So even if the stock just sits around $2.00 for a while, I'm content collecting AMNF's ever increasing dividends, which I happily did again this very day. In the meantime, patience! I think $3.00 is in AMNF's future - we know what, we just don't know when. At the rate AMNF is growing, I doubt we will have to wait many more quarterly reports. Not all that long to wait for a nice return on investment, but it will seem like forever to those who stare at their computer screens all day everyday.
That's about all I have to say, other than BUY the next mini-flash crash in AMNF's stock. As a thinly traded stock, it has them every now and then. Always nice to add when Mr. Market is holding a fire sale! Have a great day, Amigo!
A thing of beauty: 3Q earnings are out and they are great! Sales up 18% and earnings up 29% YOY. Growth looks to be accelerating too! Sales were up 13.4% and earnings were up 17.7% from just last quarter (Q2 2014). Almost 2 hours after earnings were released AMNF was actually down $0.01 at $1.96 on this news. I see that in the time it has taken me to post, AMNF is now at $2.00 and up $0.03 on the day. Seems like a pretty modest gain given the news on a nearly plus 300 day for the DOW!
I continue to have more confidence in AMNF than any other position I own. Right now it is certainly a far less tense situation to be in a stock like AMNF where deteriorating geopolitical conditions, European and Chinese weakness, decelerating global growth, the end of QE3, etc. have little or no fundamental impact on the company, than in any other part of the stock market. People aren't too likely to quit eating. Amigo Mike is likely correct about the recent dividend increase being a sign of continued strength in sales and earnings. Furthermore, I know of no reason why that strength can't continue and even accelerate into the future.
Over the past few months the number of sellers below $2.00 seems to be slowly drying up. AMNF may be poised for another genuine breakout. However, the technical situation in the overall market appears very negative against a background of deteriorating fundamentals. The very weak oil market seems to confirm a strong deceleration in global growth rates, although copper is still hanging in there slightly above $3.00.
I will be very interested in seeing how AMNF trades after an expected good earnings report. A potentially imminent decline in the overall market might still keep a lasting breakout over $2.00 in check for a while. As always, anything can happen in the short term, especially with the recently increasing market turbulence, but strong fundamentals will ultimately trump any technical situation over time.
Seeking Alpha has an article about SBSI dated 5-19-14 entitled "Southside Bancshares: Great Bank, Sold Off For Shortsighted Reasons". The author writes favorably about the proposed merger with OABC and seems to think well of SBSI's prospects whether or not the merger goes through. If the merger doesn't go through, the stock may well pop back up in the short term. If the merger does get approved by shareholders, the author believes SBSI will be a stronger more diversified bank likely to prosper even more in the longer term, expecting a 33% premium to current prices by the end of 2015. I may reconsider my initial impression that I should vote against the merger.
SBSI closed today at $25.73 below the $26.13 to 26.45 price range where according to the article, 3 directors and the CEO of SBSI recently bought additional shares on May 6th, which one would have to view as a vote of confidence.
I'm still long SBSI and certainly intend to stay that way at least until the merger vote takes place. Does anyone else have any thoughts on the Seeking Alpha article or any other information they deem important?
Really?!!!? SBSI is going to pay nearly 44 times OABC's trailing earnings based on SBSI's closing price on 4-28-14 to acquire OABC? I've really liked SBSI for the few years I've been in it, but this seems like a bad deal for SBSI shareholders. OABC may be a fine company, but I don't see any reason to dilute SBSI's under 14 times earnings to make this acquisition. I will be voting NO! SBSI has stated several times in the past few years that they were looking for acquisitions. I can't believe this is what they came up with! If I'm wrong, I'd love to hear the explanation why this makes sense.
Well, well, despite recent price action that would lead you to believe that Armanino was dependent on sales to the Ukraine or just another wildly overpriced biotech stock, it turns out they just keep selling quality food products at a record pace. Yet another quarter of record sales and earnings. Stellar 1st quarter! Way to go Armanino!
Yes, the 2013 annual report did mention slower sales in the NE and Midwest due to severe weather. I'm not certain how much of an impact that will have, though. Most of Armanino's business is in the west, which has had good weather. Furthermore, the weaker US dollar may be helping to boost international sales.
The annual report also shows that the company has maintained good cost controls. Leases on their production and administrative facilities have been extended under what I would regard as favorable terms. The company plans no increase in head count in 2014 despite a trend towards increased sales. Armanino is also anticipating limited price increases on select products sometime in the 1st half of 2014, which should help revenues somewhat by the 2nd half.
If there is a weather related impact in the 1st quarter, it will be a temporary phenomena and might bring about an opportunity to add to a position or initiate a position at a favorable price. The recent weakness in the general stock market has already had what I believe is a spillover effect on Armanino. The stock is now oversold on a daily and weekly basis, although not on a monthly basis.
2014 might be a choppy year following the stellar stock performance in 2013 simply as the price gains may take some time to fully digest. One has to consider the possibility that the overbought condition of the general market might prove to have a negative effect as well. While anything can happen to a stock price in the short run (especially for a thinly traded stock like this one), Armanino remains one of my very favorite stocks.
I like the conservative management and the fact that the company has demonstrated consistent profitability along with some reasonable growth. Armanino has a strong balance sheet and quality food products that aren't likely to go out of style. I'd rather be here collecting a 3.56% dividend (at current $1.80/share) with a good chance of eventual dividend hikes in the future, than in some more exciting tech stock with no dividends and products that might be fantastic and change the world or just go totally obsolete in short order(or both!).
Very strong results over the 2012 4th Q! A bit puzzling on the new products introduced in 2013 4th Q NOT using the new manufacturing line. Guess AMNF still has a trick or two up its sleeve. They always seem to give me a reason to stay tuned and keep collecting dividends.