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We have had a resilient stock traded over the last several sessions. Sometimes the volume wasn't very high. That's okay. A lot of the primary selling seems to be gone, and investors buying it under $11 per share have another nice gain to show for it.
When we were told about TARP in 2008, we were told only part of the story. A 2011 GAO report described bailouts waaaay beyond TARP....to the tune of 16 trillion dollars for major financial institutions that were underwater thanks to, for the most part, their derivatives holdings. I don't follow Bernie Sanders, but I do know that he used to keep that report, in its entirety, on his website.
This market environment is featuring the proverbial "flight to quality" and little else. That's why the 10 year Treasury yield is around .50%. Who would have thought that we would have an opportunity to re-buy Aurinia at this level (or below before this thing is done)? Nothing has changed the outcome of the Phase III trial and the proposed filing of the NDA. I am looking for a 2nd opportunity to buy-in, and I'll bet a few competitive institutions are thinking the same thing.
The stock seems to be digging in and finding a support level at 18...with a few minor violations along the way. My gut tells me several big companies may be interested in acquiring AUPH.
It would take an overall market correction of this magnitude to give existing shareholders an opportunity to average "up" over $5 per share below the recent high.
Perhaps I did get those indications mixed up...no...I really HOPE I got those two indications mixed up. Ha!
I still think going-it-alone will be pre-empted via a buy-out. What we need to keep in front of us are the timelines. First, AUPH was going to file its NDA in the first quarter of 2020. Then we were told it would be the second quarter. Now the company is saying the second half of 2020. The later it's filed in the second half, the tougher it's going to be to get approval in the first quarter of 2021. I have no idea why there already are delays. One would hope this thing would be approved before the fourth quarter of 2021 or the first quarter of 2022. Voc's NDA needs to be filed ASAP. It's supposedly on a "fast track", but that status still can mean twelve months from the date of the filing.
A minimally invasive physical procedure that has no side effects...it's just a test......can't get approved. That makes it an efficacy issue, and measurement of effectiveness must be the key.
Sure, it's fluff. Women in various countries, however, have been scanned with LuViva over the last five years. I think measurement is so tough that the FDA doesn't know what to do. What's the time cut-off as to whether or not the scan was effective?
What I gather from this announcement is that the FDA doesn't care about the results (and how they were measured) from what is being brought back from overseas since the last time GTHP was turned down. It's going to require a new clinical trial (locations unknown?) instead of using ongoing efficacy evaluations from existing patients.
Vivo looks to be Shanghai based with an operation in California. A few of the big shareholders are related to our buddies who tried to infiltrate the board last year.
The volatility of the last several weeks has created a couple of short-term trading opportunities for those speculators who thrive on active charts. The high 17s to the low 20s has given people, whose short-term timing was impeccable, a decent return in the interim. I don't worry about it. Those traders take on a lot more risk buying at 17 than I did buying at 5.
Well.. some of us have warned novice investors that there is absolutely nothing going on at Medizone…..and nothing will EVER go on at Medizone. We've done all we can do. I guess what's left is to stand back and allow the so-called momentum and story players to hype this dead animal all the way up to 50 cents a share. Have at it!
Well....my my. Here's SA attempting to chisel some encrusted egg off its face.
It would be a pleasure to sit back and watch Roche, Abbvie, and Amgen duke it out. Someone wanting to improve its lot in the kidney arena would be nuts to not take out Aurinia.
Do-Gooder watchdogs issue mandates that are violated all the time. It's important to know, however, that an organization exists that wants to see Merck's vaccine take over the entire planet. We must realize that the window of opportunity for success doesn't widen....it narrows as time goes by.
The WHO has mandated that 90% of women around the globe be vaccinated with the HPV vaccine by 2030. GTHP has a narrowing window of opportunity to have an impact. US FDA approval is a moot point. The developing world is where this procedure will make a difference.
Amgen has been in the renal space for a decade since making an acquisition. It recently was dealt a setback for a 2nd generation product developed off a 1st generation produce that it already has on the market.
This market environment is one of the few avenues where "shorts" can be successful: dragging a stellar company like Aurinia through the market mud. It shouldn't last much longer, and the act of the "covering" movement will be much more painful.
I will be buying tomorrow afternoon.
I honestly never thought there would be another opportunity to buy Aurinia below 18.
He stuck it to himself over a period of years, teq.
Well.....Hi, BenK. I suppose our former CEO took great delight in forcing the bankruptcy issue and shafting the shareholders that had called him on the carpet, for so many years, for his inability to act. Well.....he shafted himself to a much greater degree.....didn't he!
Shhhh, Eli,....let's let them hype it up to about 50 cents. Ha!
Given what we have been told about the difficulty to produce a generic VOC plus the establishment of global testing zones where VOC saw action, we might have a non-event on our hands. One would have to believe that potential suitors are aware.
Given the dynamics of the "overview" you just posted, I believe the strengths of VOC are of the magnitude to force a suitor's hand earlier rather than later. Think about it. You're the CEO of a company that has spent years and millions developing a competing product that is inferior. What would you do given the fact that VOC is vastly superior for more than one indication.....jump now or wait for yet another competitor to grab it?
I guess the big question right now relates to the potential of the test results and should a suitor take the plunge now instead of waiting for the FDA approval in 2021. A buyout today could be done a lot cheaper because of the "unknown".
Warrants are exercised via the purchase of treasury stock. Options are exercised via the existing float.
Trading debt for equity dilution won't help in the short term.
The steady accumulation, amid the global turmoil, remains impressive.
Anything can upset a market during a short-term event. Company prospects and eventual sales and earnings, however, will dominate the long term.
It certainly isn't unusual to see some serious profit-taking on a stock that rose 250% in a month. What's really positive here is the continued accumulation of stock after each sell-off. We're replacing first step owners with owners willing to be patient for the next step.
I was not around for the Ariad drama, but I did go back and do a bunch of reading of prior year posts plus other history that I found on the net. Evidently, a bunch of you all were afraid you were going to take a real thumping at the hands of Ariad, and then a miraculous buyout occurred. Aurinia offered the angst of just having to be patient and wait it out. The drop, affiliated with the secondary offering, that drove the stock down below $4, might not have been illegal but certainly was unethical. The Phase III test knocked it out of the park, and no one has more egg on its face than the blowhards at Seeking Alpha. Right now it will be interesting to see how much resistance the stock will have, initially, at $20.
I think the short attacks are ongoing as was evidenced again today. There's a counter attack, however, also happening that is neutralizing the extent of the declines. I agree that a potential B.O. may have as much chutzpah as anything else right now to keep the stock heading north.
Our stock has absorbed major shockwaves of sellers this week, and it also survived a huge offering $3.00+ per share lower from where it now trades. Volume and hype have quieted down a bit. I look forward to the next "short" report. Could Abbvie and/or Roche be lurking in the darkness and getting ready to pounce? Only "The Shadow" knows.
It wouldn't surprise me if some shareholders sold off enough stock to recoup their original cost basis. AUPH is up over 300% for many shareholders, so taking enough profit to cover the cost basis still leaves a boatload of shares with which to reap even more profits over the next couple of years.
EQ: A Phase 1 test was launched two months ago with the primary indication being for asthma.
Well....we're seeing almost 5 million shares trading in the first half hour. The stock is up over a buck in spite of the announcement of the offering. What does that tell us? 1. Analysts had figured in the potential of a large offering when they were determining their initial price targets. 2. Interested institutions also have figured out that, whether the patents run out in '27 or '37, replicating the test formulas and timelines would be rather difficult. 3. Today's trading is all about the big boys and....oh yeah......that BP acronym again.
Thanks a bunch. Having just joined Acronyms Anonymous, I needed a little guidance. One would think that BP would have to include Roche... at least two years behind and developing an inferior product.
To whom are you all referring when you mention "BP"? Thanks.