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Article in the London Telegraph suggesting that Russia does not belong in the tailwind, and never did.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11296934/Putins-economic-lies-over-Russia-have-been-dangerously-exposed.html?WT.mc_id=e_3766312&WT.tsrc=email&etype=politics&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_PAM_New_2014_12_17&utm_campaign=3766312
There seem to be two Russias - Putin's dreamworld of past glories and the pragmatic bureaucrats.
Quite disarming candor, though.
USO tries to match the oil price through the use of futures, which injects a distortion based on whether the market is in contango or backwardation.
I don't follow USO, so that's all the help I can be.
That was too terse. Should have added that after Lac Megantic any action that forces reliance on rail cars for oil transport is almost criminal.
I can see both sides of this issue.
Any means of oil transportation is preferable to the Keystone XL environmental catastrophe, surely?
The Daily Mail has not shown itself to be a reliable prognosticator in ARIA matters.
By Bloomberg News
Dec 1, 2014 3:29 AM ET
China is emerging as the winner from OPEC’s battle with rival oil producers as the world’s biggest energy consumer stockpiles crude. The nation’s efforts to boost reserves may increase its imports by as much as 700,000 barrels a day in 2015, according to London-based Energy Aspects Ltd. That’s more than half the global glut forecast by Citigroup Inc. after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries refrained from cutting output at its meeting last week. Brent crude has slumped 41 percent from its peak in June.
The dwindling number of investors still betting on a rebound in prices can at least count on Chinese demand. OPEC decided to maintain output targets even as a shale boom boosts U.S. production to the highest in more than three decades and causes a global supply glut. As crude extends its slump to the lowest level in more than four years, China is seeking to build a strategic petroleum reserve.
“This is a golden time window to acquire more strategic oil stockpiles at lower costs,” Gordon Kwan, the Hong Kong-based head of regional oil and gas research at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in an e-mail Nov. 28. China will be “a big beneficiary” from the OPEC decision, he said.
China boosted imports by 8.3 percent, or 460,000 barrels a day, in the first nine months of this year, the fastest pace since 2010, customs data show. The country will overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest oil consumer within two decades, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. <snip>
I haven't been in MNTA for a long time,but my recollection from M-enox days is that one of MNTA's strengths was a particularly collaborative relationship with the FDA.
Some stocks may have a way to go - from SI
Perspective - These stocks had lows below $2 in 2009 (or later) - EXXI, HK, EOX, CPE, TPLM, KOG, MHR, GPOR
I won't buy yet, but I'm not selling either.
The FT, reviewing Goldman's global outlook. Not a very clear signal - multifaceted?
The US may be recovering, but the other locomotive of the global economy is going through a soft patch that some bearish analysts fret could turn into something nastier. Goldman concedes that the outlook for China is "multi-faceted", but argues that the economy will still grow a respectable 5-7 per cent over the next two years.
Keystone
That's wait til next year if ever there was one
It’s pretty safe to conclude that PFE’s oncology partnership with Merck KGaA (#msg-108253419) rules out another attempt to merge with AZN.
Yes that's a schoolboy error that a WSJ biotech writer should not have allowed herself to commit, and that I should have caught.
WSJ on AZN
By
Helen Thomas
Nov. 18, 2014 10:44 a.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
AstraZeneca ’s pipeline has plenty of ballast. But the U.K. pharmaceutical company could still use extra buoyancy for the next couple of years.
Astra essentially faces a timing issue. Its pipeline looks better than ever: Astra said Tuesday it should submit up to 16 new molecules or major extensions to existing treatments to regulators in 2015 and 2016. The strength of Astra’s oncology business is becoming clear: by 2020, it aims to bring six new cancer treatments to market; it has an increasingly impressive position in immuno-oncology.
This, in time, will reshape Astra’s business. Half its pipeline is biologic medicines, which tend to be more durable than easily copied pills. More specialty medicines, which command higher prices, should mean better profitability.
But this won’t really be felt until after 2017. Leave aside the ambitious sales target of $45 billion by 2023, made while Astra was defending itself from Pfizer ’s takeover approach. Astra aims to hold 2017 revenues flat with 2013. That is despite the drag from drugs losing patent protection and a more competitive U.S. pricing environment in diabetes and respiratory. Even assuming total pipeline success, Barclays puts Astra $2 billion short of its 2017 target.
At 17.5 times forecast earnings, Astra still trades at a slight premium to the sector. But support from takeover talk should be waning. Pfizer could return in a week’s time under U.K. rules. But its alliance with Merck KGaA to develop the latter’s immuno-oncology prospect suggests the U.S. company has moved on.
It would be foolhardy for Pfizer to have another tilt at Astra without a good chance of success. AbbVie ’s abrupt ditching of Shire confirmed the worst suspicions about tax-motivated deals. And Astra’s promising pipeline could make agreement on valuation more challenging than ever.
In the near term, cost cutting as well as one-off income from deals could support earnings. But Astra may need additional help: results are expected early next year for use of blood-thinner Brilinta in non-acute patients who have suffered a heart attack within the past three years. Success could shore up confidence in Brilinta’s efficacy, encouraging physicians to prescribe the drug for longer. More important, it could potentially double the patient population for Brilinta, which Astra thinks could sell a risk-adjusted $3.5 billion in 2023.
Astra’s pipeline could translate into a more robust business geared around specialized, biologic medicines. But it is still a mass-market pill that could make for smoother sailing toward that goal.
Write to Helen Thomas at helen.thomas@wsj.com
FT
China’s property bubble is deflating Sixty-nine of the 70 cities tracked in China’s new home price index fell last month. From a year ago average prices were down 2.6 per cent, as property companies cut prices to woo buyers. (fastFT
Ebola's collateral damage.
BBC had a piece on the effect of Ebola on patient behavior in other diseases - some who need treatment for their condition will not get it because some hospitals are closed to non-Ebola patients, and some will avoid treatment at other hospitals because of the fear of Ebola infection.
FT, FWIW
Merck The German drugmaker releases third-quarter earnings today. It agreed to pay $17bn for US pharmaceutical company Sigma-Aldrich in September. The deal indicated that Merck, known for its cancer treatment Erbitux, is shifting away from the drugs market: Sigma-Aldrich is one of the biggest producers of speciality chemicals for research use. (FT)
They keep slamming it down...and then they buy some more.
Are you suggesting "they" are the same people?
You were dead right about the market significance of Gane's statement.
Actually, "exciting" is often a red flag.
You did indeed and I took advantage of it (27.3.) Now when to get back in?
SGEN report was well received by the pre-market.
(Does the tag at the end mean the piece was untouched by human hand?)
BOTHELL, Wash. (AP) _ Seattle Genetics Inc. (SGEN) on Thursday reported a third-quarter loss of $15.6 million.
On a per-share basis, the Bothell, Washington-based company said it had a loss of 13 cents.
The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 25 cents per share.
The biotechnology company posted revenue of $75.9 million in the period, also exceeding Street forecasts. Analysts expected $66.7 million, according to Zacks.
Seattle Genetics shares have decreased 12 percent since the beginning of the year. In the final minutes of trading on Thursday, shares hit $35.25, a decline of 12 percent in the last 12 months.
_____
This story was generated by Automated Insights using data from Zacks Investment Research. SGEN stock research report from Zacks.
Moving to Boston was foolhardy
The Telegraph
Dying patients could be given access to untested medicines from early next year after the Government and doctors gave their backing to a bill proposed by Lord Saatchi.
Jeremy Hunt, the Health Secretary, has now thrown his department's weight behind the Medical Innovation Bill which will make it easier for doctors to try out new treatments on patients without the fear of being sued.
The Bill – which has sharply divided the medical profession – has also received tentative backing from the General Medical Council, which earlier this year come out firmly against any change in the law, and a leading cancer charity.
The legislation was proposed by Lord Saatchi, the advertising magnate, who started to campaign on the issue after his wife Josephine Hart died from ovarian cancer.
Lord Saatchi told The Telegraph that the principle of allowing new drugs to be tested on desperately ill people was already being applied in the case of Ebola victims in Africa.
Maurice Saatchi was inspired to fight to improve cancer care following the death of his wife, Josephine Hart
He said: “In dealing with the deadly Ebola outbreak, the World Health Organisation has decided that departure from standard evidence-based treatment is fully justified and essential.
“It has set ethical guidelines for the use of new therapies and interventions - they are identical to the provisions of the Medical Innovation Bill.”
Supporters said the plans – which could be law by March if MPs and peers agree – will allow victims of rare cancers to volunteer to be treated with untried drugs.
Cutting out the need for years of clinical trials will bring down the cost of the medicine and may make pharmaceutical firms more likely to fund experimental drugs that only help a small number of people with rare diseases.
The slowdown in Chinese growth has been predicted many times. This time it may be happening, but case not yet proven.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/16/news/economy/china-gdp/
The key is wrapped up in the following.
In China, now indulging in the worst credit binge ever, a slowdown by more than half could drop the country’s GDP growth to 5% or less in the coming years—another two percentage points off the already slow pace. It is ironic that while some criticize Europe for not spending enough, China is now paying the price for having stimulated too much since 2008.
What would a two-point slowdown in China mean for the world? Every one-point slowdown in China’s growth now takes about half a point off global growth, according to a recent J.P. Morgan analysis. So a two-point China slowdown could bring down global growth by nearly a point. With the world economy currently expanding at about 2.5%, a one-point drop would bring growth close to 1.5%. Any growth rate below 2% starts to feel like a recession.
All you really need is a clipboard.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11166839/Who-is-clipboard-man-man-without-Hazmat-suit-helps-Ebola-patient-onto-plane.html
putting their ideology in front of American people safety.
I agree 100% that the administration response has been feeble and dreadfully ineffective, but what's the ideology angle?
Shares in Shire SHPG -0.57% PLC plummeted to the bottom of London’s FTSE 100 index Wednesday, after the U.S.’s AbbVie Inc. ABBV +0.95% said it was having second thoughts about buying the company, in light of new rules discouraging firms from relocating overseas to gain favorable tax treatment.
Shares in the pharmaceuticals company, which had risen by almost 90% in value between the start of the year and Tuesday’s close, mostly buoyed by takeover talk, slumped to just £38.04 ($60.50) apiece on Wednesday—a level last seen in mid-June—on the strongest sign yet that the U.S. Treasury Department’s measures are having their intended effect of discouraging companies from relocating overseas for tax purposes. The new rules were announced by the Obama administration last month.
How to ensure truthful compliance is the problem, I would think.
The pitfalls yawn
GlaxoSmithKline said a Chinese court found its subsidiary in the country guilty of bribing nongovernment personnel and fined the company close to £300 million ($491.5 million)
Chinese state media said it was the largest corporate fine the country had ever issued.
The pharmaceutical company said it had cooperated fully with the authorities and taken steps to comprehensively rectify the issues identified at the unit.
VVUS has a pretty consistent track record of not taking promising drugs drugs to commercial success (Qsymia, for example)
GSK Ebola vaccine
LONDON – The first volunteer in a fast-tracked British safety trial of an experimental Ebola vaccine made by GlaxoSmithKline received the injection on Wednesday, trial organizers said.
The candidate Ebola vaccine, which GSK co-developed with the United States National Institutes of Health, has also been given to 10 volunteers taking part in a separate trial in the United States, and so far there were no signs of any serious adverse reactions, doctors said.
The vaccine is designed to specifically target the Zaire strain of Ebola, the one circulating in the West Africa epidemic, the worst Ebola outbreak recorded.
Since the vaccine contains no infectious Ebola virus material, only one of its genes, experts say there are no concerns that any of the subjects will contract the deadly disease.
Latest data from the World Health Organization (WHO) show about 2,500 people have died of Ebola in an outbreak that started in March and has infected almost 5,000 people in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Nigeria.
The British trial is being run by a team at Oxford University.
A spokeswoman for the Oxford team said the first volunteer in the UK trial was vaccinated early on Wednesday, but gave no further information. She said more details would be given later.
Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told a U.S. Senate panel on Tuesday that "no red flags" indicating serious adverse reactions have been found in the 10 healthy volunteers vaccinated there so far.
The trials are seeking to determine not only whether the vaccine is safe, or causes adverse side effects, but also whether it triggers the production of antibodies against the Ebola virus.
The aim is to complete the tests by the end of 2014, after which vaccines could be deployed on an emergency basis.
GSK says it plans to begin making up to about 10,000 doses of the vaccine at the same time as the initial clinical trials, so that if they are successful, the vaccine could be made available immediately for an emergency immunization program.
Ben Neuman, a virologist at the University of Reading who is not involved in the vaccine studies, said it was important not to get ahead of the results.
"There is clearly a need for this vaccine, but what is not clear is whether it will work well enough to protect someone from Ebola," he said.
He said the experimental shot "uses some of the best available technology to give the immune system a good long look at its target, a small but vitally important part of the virus", but added: "We won't really be able to tell whether the vaccine works until it is tested on the ground in West Africa."
Study data from an animal trial of an Ebola vaccine similar to this GSK one showed that it was effective for at least five weeks in lab monkeys but required boosting with an additional vaccine to extend its protection to 10 months.
Health Connect
Obviously lack of care contributes to death rates, but cultural practices seem to be important as well
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/13/kissing-the-corpses-in-ebola-country.html
WSJ
There is more than one reason iron-ore miners and steel producers need to scrap the idea that Chinese demand will save them.
The five-year nadir the price of iron ore reached last week reminded investors that the world's biggest consumer of iron ore, China, is slowing down and doesn't need as much ore to forge into steel. There is another thing to be mindful of: China can soon meet part of its demand by turning to its own scrap metal.
China so far hasn't recycled too many of its old cars, appliances or construction material for fresh use in steel, simply because it didn't have many metallic objects idling around. But China's breakneck growth in the past decade should mean more scrap is available.
For instance, cars can be recycled 5 years to 10 years after production, says CLSA's Ian Roper. So the vehicles purchased by consumers in the automotive buying boom that started in 2009 may soon make their way to steel furnaces. China last year boasted 127 million registered cars and trucks on its roads, from 27 million a decade ago, according to data provider CEIC.
The new local supply of scrap is already making its presence felt in trade. Imports of iron-related scrap between January and July fell by nearly half from last year. And they are a fifth of the amount in 2009, when China needed all the steel it could get as the government sought to stimulate the economy.
Mr. Roper estimates that by 2020, China's total scrap supply will reach 200 million tons a year, or about a quarter of what the Chinese government thinks its peak steel consumption will be. Scrap accounted for just 18% of steel use last year.
More scrap should mean that China needs less iron ore to process into new steel, especially because a 40% export duty on scrap keeps this recycled material at home. Of course, China could process that scrap into finished products that it exports abroad, so more Chinese scrap could succeed in hurting steel prices worldwide.
Iron-ore miners and steelmakers may wish that China's old cars and washing machines just rust away. In reality, they are here to stay in one form or another.
WSJ
The specter of meager Chinese demand spooked iron-ore prices this week to their lowest level in five years. Yet with supply set to grow twice as fast as demand this year, the key issue for investors isn't about demand picking up. It is whether supply can be eliminated.
The price of high-quality iron ore has tumbled 37% this year to $84 a ton. China, which buys two-thirds of all seaborne iron ore, has moderated its appetite. Chinese steel mills are operating at low capacity, says Evan Lucas of brokerage IG, and will keep producing modest amounts of steel as the country's housing market slows.
Economics 101 should dictate that uncompetitive, high priced iron ore suppliers now adjust to the slumping demand by cutting production. But China is again casting a shadow here. Six of every 10 tons of China's own substantial iron ore production are mined by state companies who have strong access to financing and may be incentivized by local governments to continue producing despite falling prices. These mines have been operating at high levels through this year's price slump, says CLSA strategist Ian Roper. Local governments interested in saving jobs may also be keeping some large private firms alive, says Tim Murray at J Capital Research.
International miners ought to be better schooled in textbook economics. Yet while the low price knocks off high-cost producers in places such as Mexico, many global assets are now owned by Chinese companies. By 2016, these mines will comprise 13% of China's imports, Mr. Roper notes. The new Chinese masters might keep the mines producing no matter the returns, in the interests of securing supply over the long term.
Then there are the world's largest miners such as BHP Billiton and Vale who boast the lowest costs. They hope to succeed in a low iron-ore price environment by ramping up volumes, with most of them reporting record production recently. The volume war boosts their absolute profits, but by adding to the glut, prices will take longer to recover.
Iron ore prices might stabilize in the coming months as small Chinese private mines and some global ones go offline. But with China or the world's big miners continuing to dig, this commodity is in for a rough ride.
London Telegraph
Crowded field
Doctors from around the world are gathering in Geneva to discuss the possible usage of ten vaccines and cures for Ebola, as the virus continues to spread with ever-increasing speed.
The World Health Organisation (WHO), which is hosting the conference, said earlier this week that 1,900 people are now known to have died of Ebola – mostly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Seven people have died in Nigeria, which has counted a total of 22 cases, while one case has been confirmed in Senegal. And at least 30 more people have died in a separate outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
An American doctor, 51-year-old Rick Sacra, has become the third US medic to be infected with Ebola. He was working in Liberia and on Friday was being flown to a hospital in the American state of Nebraska for treatment.
And although this is already the worst outbreak of Ebola in the 40-year history of the disease, experts say that its true scale is far larger than official estimates.
"Many deaths are in the community and are not being reported," said Tarik Jasarevic, WHO spokesman. "It is estimated that there are two to four times as many people infected with Ebola as reported."
WSJ
India Answers Coal's Prayers
By
Abheek Bhattacharya
Aug. 26, 2014 7:10 a.m. ET
A worker unloaded coal from a truck at a coal yard in Gujarat state on July 5. Reuters
Global commodity bulls might want to think of setting up a temple to Indian officials.
On Monday, India's top court declared illegal the 200-odd licenses for coal mines that the government had awarded between 1993 and 2010, arguing these were handed out arbitrarily. It's possible some of the domestic power and metals firms who own these mines will eventually get them back. Still, investors don't feel too great about the uncertainty, especially while the notoriously byzantine Indian judiciary decides what to do about the illegal mines.
This local uncertainty presents an opportunity for international coal investors, who currently struggle with too much supply. If the mines in question remain shut, power plants would suddenly need imported coal to make up 38 million metric tons of projected coal production, according to government figures. That's equivalent to 88% of the excess capacity in seaborne thermal coal this year, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie. Steel mills would need an extra 14 million tons of coking coal, which should cover the oversupply in that market.
It's possible the decision will only target the mines belonging to private firms, not those associated with local governments. In that scenario, India would still gobble up a third of the excess capacity in seaborne coal and all of the extra coking coal supply. This could put a floor on some coal prices, and boost companies such as Singapore-listed Noble Group, which exports coal from Indonesia.
The court's move on coal mirrors a similar situation with Indian iron ore. Starting in 2011, Indian courts began banning iron ore exports. India's contribution to seaborne trade in iron ore has plummeted to 2% from 10%.
India can only assist coal and iron ore for so long. The overcapacity in both commodities could worsen next year. Plus, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi might use this week's court ruling to implement promises to improve how minerals are extracted and allocated.
Yet supporters of these downbeat commodities should count the few blessings they get. While China slows down demand and international miners struggle to curtail supply, India is one country that's answering their prayers.
In addition to ENTA and ARIA, there are a few others with intraday moves in excess of 5% - CLDX, OMER, XNPT, ACHN and BIND