Bill’s most interesting point is one I have made many times: central banks are overconfident in their own ability to control the economy. He says it more eloquently, so I’m going to quote him at length.
“Mark Twain said, ‘It ain’t the things that you don’t know what gets you, it’s the things what you know for sure, what ain’t so.’ And Oliver Cromwell wrote a letter to the Scottish parliament, I think it was… And what he said was, ‘Brothers, I beg you in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you might be wrong.’ And this problem of people holding on to false beliefs seems to me to have been around for a very long period of time. The first question, I guess, is, do we think that the Central Bankers actually have got it wrong?
“They’ve got the wrong model, the wrong framework, and I’ve said and written this a number of times. I think they have made what I call a profound ontological error. It’s almost a philosophical error that they have misunderstood the nature of the system that they’re trying to control and what all of these models are based upon—and not just the Neo-Keynesian models, but the big structural models too—they’re based upon the idea that the economy is actually very simple and it’s static, essentially. It is understandable because it’s simple and static and, therefore, it is controllable.
“The models have all got that as fundamental assumptions, but there’s a problem. And the problem is, it’s not true. Because the economy is not simple, it is complex; it is not static, it is adaptive. Everybody’s constantly reacting to all the stuff that’s going on and changing their behavior.
“And in consequence, the economy is not understandable, and it is not controllable. Maybe controllable within certain limits, but it will not take the maximization that has been going on without having some unintended consequences that, over some longer run, will come back and bite you in the bum. And that’s precisely what’s been going on.
“And I think the degree to which the Fed—and the other Central Banks too—have gotten wedded to this fundamental, philosophical misconception is really unfortunate because it has allowed them to conduct a policy, which, again, as I’ve said before, this ultra-easy monetary policy going back decades almost, has been both unneeded because deflation is not always and everywhere, a bad idea. We can talk about that a bit more. That policy has proved to be ineffective for reasons that you know well, Lacy. Easy money encourages a buildup of debt, which over time then weighs negatively against further growth.
“And lastly, I think this policy has just been very dangerous because of all of the unintended consequences. In addition to the debt overhang, you’ve got all of those financial imbalances that I just spoke about a few moments ago. And in addition, I think what you’ve got is that ultra-easy monetary policy—and this goes back to Hayek and the Austrians—does lead, in the end, to misallocations of real resources that actually slow down aggregate supply every bit as much as it slows down aggregate demand.
“So, I do think it’s unfortunate that this approach has been so widely taken because it has allowed us to go down a path that has generated the problems that we are currently facing and which, as I said earlier, I fear could lead us to a rather sticky end. Not saying it’s inevitable, but it does seem to me to be quite likely.”
These are profound words: “The economy is not understandable, and it is not controllable.” Powerful people at the Fed and other banks disagree. They think they do understand the economy and they can control it. They’re wrong on both counts, and their mistakes are causing enormous damage.
This echoes a point I have made in numerous past letters. Easy money and quantitative easing have contributed to the excessive wealth disparity in the world. It is clearly the root cause of the financialization of the economy, which leads to the distortions that Bill mentions.

Excellent Twitter thread from one of the authors of the study

I think our chance of an EUA is over 90%.

I also think lenz's biggest future is as a Covid stockpile drug. I think that will be our proverbial 'brass ring.'

Referring back to the aforementioned MSFT 1 Put. I bought it back just now for 66 cents, making 30% in a day. Resold it again, but for next Friday, for the same strike price of 247.5 and a premium of $2.20.

Portfolio is down from the peak: 7.0%.
Portfolio YTD is up 11.4%.

I'm almost back to even for the year. Down .12% this morning YTD. Just need the market makers to push this market up a bit. There is a TON of put money out there after the TGT market put. You know the trading houses would like to sweep some of it up before the market closes. After another nasty week, VIX at 28.50...what me worry?

now that is interesting , they are going to make more of our cool aid there

I think Biden is doing a simply horrible job as president....

I am a fiscal conservative, but am not a religious fanatic as many in the republican far right are..

I think we shall see one very volatile day, yet, but otherwise the volatility will lessen, albeit slowly. In my opinion we are within 10% of the bottom. Maybe 5%.

If we drop another 5% or if we see a huge down day with appropriate lopsided number of lows and volume, I will be adding long positions. Currently I am holding 10% cash

I was actually glad to see the article appear today regarding HC Wainwright's share price projection of $28. It hasn't always been true that I was glad to see that news.

Humanigen has spent over $150 million on manufacturing lenzilumab over the last year and its market cap is only $132 million.

Good data will send the share price skyrocketing. A day with over 1000% gains to the share price is realistic.

It is an incredibly opportune time to get back into HGEN.

In addition also rt traded ^ Calls in F. In total the gain was 44.5%.

trillion dollar deals keeping you busy?

looks like clunagen has been a complete flop so far .. zero sales

I think $1.80 is going to hold. A nice time for an entry.

10nis... What loan can you obtain without the lender determining your future ability to re-pay?

Kids are spending over $200k at NYU to obtain a $30k Social Service job. Unreal. The governments spending has turned this into a dumpster fire.

What advice.....go to a community college. Commute if possible.

Move the financing of education from the public sector back to the private, but have funding go through the institution that enrolled the student. Put them on the hook for loan losses. If their degree is worth the cost they shouldn't have any problems, with taking the financial risk.

I was at a family gathering (not mine) and a newly minted HS graduate was discussing her acceptance, and financing issues, to attend a private college. She didn't have any money available from her family so she decided to seek a $70k loan for her Freshman year. I didn't comment (even though I wanted to) but it's obvious to me that based on her area of study, it's unlikely she'll be able to pay off her college loans.

Maybe I'm an old curmudgeon, but how does this type of lunacy continue? Does this person believe she's different then the students who have degrees but can't repay their loans?

The system is broken and needs to be addressed...or it's Groundhog Day forever, at taxpayer's expense.

Thank you Elroy. Those of us who had ben through several corrections and Bear Markets learned to save the cash for opportunities like the ones should come soon. But, the width is still not negative enough for calling a flush out.

We should have the 1st Quarter 10-Q within the next two weeks, and I hope we will get a snapshot on the results of the company's European commercialization efforts. Once fully developed, we could have more market demand than we can supply.

I guess they didn't.

I guess that's a weak, scared management.

You obviously paid no attention to yesterday's chart, or likely not to any.

What Surprised me was that on Thursday Musk made an offer and Friday Twitter adopts a poison pill. Did they even talk to Musk?

I guess that's a weak, scared management.

The 20 options expiring today have a bid-ask of .55 - .85, with 491 on the bid side, if I understand the screen correctly. Very tempting, if called at that 20 the return is almost 10 percent in one day.

https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0f6eKqzx?pd=08bu3vBU&lang=en_US&s=i16
from one know it all to another

There are some people, such as you, that blame management for our share price...If you don't understand how this price is manipulated, you can curse management for every penny of the stock price decline. I don't think that's being fair to management, who likely is working harder than ever for our success.

Tim stated 85,000 treatments already available.

At $10,000 each, that is $850 million or approximately 4 times HGEN's market cap.

12% cash and 1.5% down from the top of the investments.

On NEOG's FY3Q22 CC, the CFO noted the significant costs of preparing for the merger with 3M. He said there were 14,000 hours of meetings between NEOG and 3M staffs during the quarter. Does this number seem plausible?

Like many other road warriors in the US I've flown 100+ flights a year for the last 25 years.

The SPX is up and currently at 4,379. There is a short term double top at 4,386 from late February and early March which may act as resistance. Yesterday's move was strong and led by tech, communications and discretionary. As the market moves up today those sectors are lagging and energy, materials, real estate and utilities are leading. It's only one day but it's never a good sign when money rotates out of tech and into utilities.

Rolled over Cash Covered Puts in 10 MSFT, 10 CLF and 15 NNN for 1-3 weeks later for a 90% gain, but MSFT was a 850% gain.

Sold 10 Covered Calls for MS 6/17 and 100, Premium 6.90.
Sold 6 Covered Calls for FANG 6/17 and 150, Premium 2.79.

Attached is a chart, (from John Mauldin), that makes a point I've been making for 20 years. Exceptionally high energy prices trigger recessions.

This week's positive share price momentum should carry over to next week.

A lot of smart money will enter HGEN between now and data release because the science behind lenzilumab is impeccable.

GM-CSF inhibition is the key to preventing severe Covid and Covid death

Good call Don. Insiders are buying after a long blackout period.

The $200M S-3... is a contingency plan, and it will be enacted, if needed.

One reason could be because of the amount of revenue we may raise through Clinigen.

But another reason could be because we may have produced about $300M in product beyond the company's stated goal of 100K treatments.

you obvi have zero clue about how close i read so please do not discuss what intelligent investors do or do not think with what is your inherent negative and toxic bias about the co that clouds your ability to comprehend most any new information

have you tried ordering a couch in the past year? for a small player to have nearly reached their 100k goal is a lot better than most expected tennis boy

Well, if we meet the US Government's mAb demand that sotrovimab is not going to be able to do, that order in itself will practically meet the low end of my 2M-10M projection. That order was for 1.7M treatments.