got it--thanks. clearly a registration. will increase o/s share about 50%, but would not affect any "fully diluted" numbers folks have calculated.

The real question to me is this--assuming that these investors have know since August that the shares were going to be registered, the smart play for them is to short in the market then cover with the newly-registered shares.

DO you think this has already happened or has yet to?

IYXI - thanks bigpike.

I can't pull up that link as I am not a member on that site. From the wording, which says "selling shareholders", it sounds like previously restricted stock being registered for sale as opposed to new shares issued by the company. In this case the float would change but not the o/s.

Also--sounds very much like 50% of the current number, give or take just a little. A very odd number of shares to issue--again a hint that this would be a registration.

I can't find anything for IYXI on Edgar dated Aug 4, Aug 9 or Sep 15.

Can you clarify? TIA

I think this Alabama contract is a good thing. Not big, not a hugely visible venue, but proof of SRGX's value proposition and proof that they can "win on the road" (I give this more weight in terms of validating the business model than I would to Maine contracts worth a lot more money).

I'm from Michigan and have spent a fair amount of time in Alabama. For a small "Yankee" outfit to win a contract in "good ol' boy" country is saying something.

IYXI.OB -- I just can't type that symbol correctly! :)

Got a link to the recent filing? Certainly some kind of secondary would seem to be appropriate.

I'd like to recommend that you take a look at IXYI.OB

A friend of mine with whom I have corresponded for years re: stocks recommended this one a couple weeks back at 1.50, it is now 1.96. He NEVER touches bbs stocks--this is the first I have seen him mention in about 7-8 years.

Great revenues today (tripled). Not profitable yet, but look to be getting there. Management projected 15% net on $135MM revs next year--that would be about $20MM in profit. There are 40MM shares out, so if they hit the target we'd be at EPS of .50

There's a fair amount of debt, but if they generate the revenues noted above it will be manageable.

Those numbers look to be worth a flier with the stock trading at 1.96

CNCN - another one I own. This financing looks like a real good deal for CNCN and bodes well for the future. Does not look like they had to sell this deal too hard--had a rady market among friends and associates at above-market terms. Gotta like it.

SRGX - those share counts are pretty much what I have.

I own BIPH from about .6x, and at higher prices as well.

I recently took a look at the 300 or so stocks on my radar--large or small, owned or not.

Of the list, BIPH was the single stock on the list that I could imagine owning 10 years from now, assuming the story on each plays out. Given that, I just can't sell and I will add on anything that looks like a dip given the cash.

I still see the potential for a ten bagger.

I also own both HMSG and SRGX.

While the ballistics operation in HMSG offers long term home run portential, SRGX seems the more solid bet. SRGX has FAR fewer shares outstanding, and the security survey contracts they do have the potential to be very large and, given the level of specialization and clearances involved, almost certainly are VERY high margin.

I see it that way as well.

I did not sell my AOB, but was happy to write the Nov7.5 calls for 50 cents each.

It may pop on earnings but it has run a good deal heading into the release laready.

The Aug31 release indicates that at that point SRGX was invoicing for services provided.

Although I am not a CPA, in general that means they can start to recognize these revvenues as invoiced. That bodes well for the next set of quarterly numbers we'll see.

hiya tree!

I am also invested in SRGX and pretty excited by the glow share count and potential for significant revenues.

My take is that in 3-6 months SRGX will be considerably hhigher and will STILL be selling at a p/s under 1.

The GSA listing makes doing business with HMSG a little easier, but it does not really increase their market or project to greater revenues.

They sell pretty specialized products to specific DoD customers--they do not sell commodities to the entire federal government appartus.

The GSA listing does not mean that HUD will suddenly start ordering breacher's kits, or FEMA will suddenly start ordering GPS units pre-loaded with maps of Iraq, or the post office will put in a big order for trauma bags...

Er, wait, scratch that last...

Basically, this does not open up any markets to HMSG that they were not already working.

Wade - good call on KSWW!

Niles--yes, I like BIPH in this 1.50 range. Did not think I'd get another chance at it so low.

so Bob--would you buy a used car from those guys?

Unfortunately, fue to the lack of a floor on the convertible, I can't come up with a final number.

What we DO have is this SB-2/A form filed on Edgar 7/8/05. This clearly shows a registration of (potentially) 78.8MM shares for conversion of preferreds and debentures. It is a little unclear to me, but I think this is a MINIMUM number, as this is based on a price of .20. The 78.8MM number is a good faith estimate but the text clearly indicates that they will register more as need ed to make the conversions and that that number is "indeterminate". There are some very detailed conversion scenarios shown in the filing.

While these technically are not outstanding, I certainly assume that these shares will be in the market when it comes time to divvy up the MOTG earnings pie.

http://pro.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.asp?FilingID=3783078&ticker=MOTG&Type=HTML&a....

If the link does not work, go to EDGAR and look up the 7/8/05 SB-2/A filing for MOTG.

The other thing to remember is that this filing PRE-DATES the financing MOTG just did to fund the InMarketing acquisition. My quick review (see 8K on EDGAR filed 9/19/05) is that this involved some of the smae companies and also had convertibles with no floor--don't quote me on either but I am working on that basis.

Both agreements have some kind of provision that implies a cap on ownership be the lenders of 4.9% orF MOTG stock, but I think this is a dodge that simply keeps them under the radar and not required to file a 5% position. My take is that there is room for them to short, cover and repeat within this structure.

other than a volume spike, is there any indication at all that anything is happening with HLOI?

How many shares out on PRXT? Put another way--how many CYDF shares are behind each PRXT share and what else does the company have going for it?

agreed--there is potential here, despite forthcoming diluton. That is why it is still on the radar for me. Frankly, I think the chance of a spin-off of some kind in 12-18 months is pretty good, though the compnay (rightly) can't put down solid timeframes in that regard. Not sure what that would be or what value it would carry, but any such spi-off to shareholders would be a validation of both the business mdoel and of how much creibility management's other statements can be given.

However, that's a long way off right now. On the immeidate hoirzon is the qtrly and seeing some detailed numbers. Since the latest round of financing (for InMarketing) cam after quarter-end, the share count may still look pretty reasonable.

Your analysis is quite plausible. I think we'll ultimately see more shares than you do, and I am inclined to think that a PE of 20 may not be sustainable (but is possibly reachable on spikes)--but the general "shape" of your analysis makes sense.

Personally, I think I can get a lower entry point than today, as I think many are looking at the ridiculously low share count (and therefore market cap) numbers shown on Yahoo or similar sites and that many of these folks will react negatively when they figure out there are more than 30MM shares among which the growth must be shared. I may be wrong. GLTY

I agree--I am now out of MOTGE and waiting to see what the financials look like. MOTG does have what appears tobe a good revenue engine, but the fully diluted share count is WAY higher thatn what Yahoo shows and what the RB enthusiasts are basing tehir cheerleading on.

I agree that the fully diluted number is at least 100MM more shares than the 30MM some now cite.

MOTG may still ruin, and is trabable for the nimble (that does not include me). One consideration is that if they only report what had occured THROUGH THE QUARTER END, the picture might look pretty rosy in terms of share count.

no problem--I wasn't intending to blame you, just observing that I had also found that news and it obviously was not the fresh news we are awainting...

not really too helpful--only through the March quarter

that was probably ME on RB.

to clarify--I did **NOT** call the company and have no info as to whether divdended sahres would be restricted.

I just asked the question on the boards. Don't know the answer--still would like to hear it.

To repeat--I have no official info from the company re: status of potential dividended shares.

Frankly, while this MIGHT deter "legal" shorts, I suspect a stock dividend whould have no impact whatsoever on naked shorts. Those scumbags would just ignore it--they have already indicated that they don't intend to play by the rules nad feel they are beyond resource of regulatory agencies.

No--I do not own restricted shares.

I was asking whether, if there were a stock dividend, would the dividend shares received by the holders of restricted stock also be restricted, or would they be free trading?

perhaps you should plant a beer tree...

While I think AMNI has potential, it is very hard for me to get excited about a stock dividend, whcih changes nothing at all. At the end of the day, you still own the same % of the same set of assets and potential future revenues as you do before that SD.

I think that is an idea AMNI should quickly bury.

Stock dividends MIGHT make sense in a stock with extremely reqtricted liquidity, but not when there are already hundreds of millions of shares outstanding.

If there were a stock dividend, does anyone know if shares received as a dividend on restricted original shares would be immediately free-trading? If so, than a stock dividend is a very red flag, as it would benefit restricted shareholders only.

rrufff--seems like we have a few stocks in common--MOTG, AMNI and IGTN. All longshots. Of the three, I think MOTG is most solid, AMNI has potential, and IGTN is at present a crapshoot.

If you wish to discuss these and other stocks offline please email me at nsomniyak@aol.com. I don't check that id EVERY day but will eventually get the message.

MOTG - thanks ruff.

If there should be a spinoff, and the company is viable and publicly traded, then there is value to the shareholder--not "something for nothing". Such spinoffs eliminate the "holding company discount" that is applied to conglomerates of dissimilar buisnesses.

I would agree, if really successful, this kind of BDC has more opportunities than cash, and would hoard their cash. Still, they did pay a cash dividend in 2004.

I am going to try to talk to Anthony Welch, the CEO. I would like to have him tell me more about their "forward capitalization" business model, plus detail the current and prospective capital structure of the company.

Thanks.

Being a BDC makes getting to the bottom of the numbers a little difficult, as it is not clear how numbes are consolidated.

I listened to the audio interview of the CEO--he sounded level headed.

The key here to me is what is the fully-diluted number of shares out. I have heard 30MM, but I think that excludes the effect of the convertible note they just issued to finance their latest acquisition. I'd be interested in the terms of that note.

I'm in for a starter position. If they paid $380,000 in cash dividends last year, that is over a penny a share on that (recent) 30MM shares base--hot bad for a 3 cent stock. That seemed worth a flier to me.

Were the stock dividends isued in 2004 simply more shares of MOTG, or did they spin off shares of subsidiary companies?

think of IP as the preursor to license revenues.

Just like that dinner date might lead to...:)

Guys - take a look at MOTG.OB - Modern Technology.

Unless I am missing something, the numbers are insanely attractive.

I have taken an initial position and may add more. I'd be interested in what you all think.

I listened to the audio interview with the CEO--sounds sharp and level-headed.

Anyone else watching this one?

Joe

thansk Len--was not aware of the ZCC board

KSWW - one more thing - all the numbers look even better when you allow for the .57 in cash per share that KSWW has. At a price of 2.25, .57 constitutes about a quarter of the market price. Flipping the numbers--make everything about 33% more positive...

Wade--I like KSWW and bought in today.

I like my chances for a 50% gain by the time we see the Sept05 quarterly numbers (probably around the end of October?).

The last 2 quarters have been big, and with the large backlog the next two look like they will be excellent as well.

They made about 300K last quarter. With the backlog, it looks like that is a very safe minimum estimate for the next couple quarters. What is exciting is that the quarter that will next roll off and out of the ttm numbers REALLY sucked--they lost more than 500K. Replace that with 300K to the good, and you get a swing of 800K+ to the good, and the ttm numbers are positive. All of a sudden a debt-free (I think) KSWW pops up on a lot of radars. The following quarter also looks good--300K net income (if no growth against a very small loss).

In short, the quarter vs. year-ago numbers will look exceptional here, and being profitable over the trailing 12 months will put KSWW on a lot of screens that currently rule them out. When investors look, they will like what they see.

PYTM.OB --

OK--anybody got a spare $32MM sitting around in the sofa cushions? Have I got a deal for you!

To recap--PYTM has $32MM in debt, due 9/30/05. THeir lender has given them some extensions, and they have retained an investment banker. PYTM has revenues of $30MM (growing nicely) and net income of $3.6MM (after paying about 1.3MM+ in debt service). 10MM shares outstanding. Stock is trading at .38, giving a silly-stupid PE of about 1.25

Clearly, PYTM has to deal with their debt to move forward. Everyone knows it, that is why they have engaged an investment banker.

Here's my proposition--somebody front me $32MM. With that, we'd offer PYTM management the following deal--they issue us 40MM shares, giving us 80% of the company (there are now 10MM shares out, approximately). We take the $32MM and pay off the debt. Exit our current creditor.

What would be left is a debt-free company with 50MM shares out, with net income of about $5MM per year (3.6MM in the last 12 months, plus the 1.3MM now spent on debt service gives about $5MM--maybe more, assuming some growth which seems to be there, but let's keep it simple and conservative). $5MM net income would be .10 per share on 50MM shares. Putting a PE of 10 on that (admittedly, might be a shade high for construction, but I like round numbers) makes the resulting entity worth about $1.00 per share. Voila--our 80% stake (40MM shares) is now worth $40MM, a paper profit of $8MM (before fees, etc).

Obviously, no one will front ME $32MM. You should, but probably, and understandably won't.

But an investment banker worth anything at all (and the guys PYTM has retained seem to have a good track record, based on a casual poke around their website) would be able to find several groups with theat kind of ready capital.

There are variations on this--if the investor group gets 90%, there would be 100MM shares out, and at a PE of 10 the stock would be worth .50 per share, the investor group's stake is worth $45MM, etc. Higher PE and growth make the case better.

More significantly, this assumes paying off the entire $32MM. Sweeter deals can be constructed if the lender can be coerced to forgive some of that $32MM, and/or carry some of it as new debt for 5-10 years. The lender probably has to give some--if they call in the loan, PYTM would go into CH 11, and the lender would be left with first claim on the assets--about $4MM (Book value per share is -2.80 or so, implying about 4MM in assets against the $32MM in debt). A far cry from getting their $32MM back, let alone an income stream above that.

I would hope an investment banker with M&A and financing experiene could easily construct a more imaginative, and more attractive, deal that I just did with brute force on the back of an envelope.

The only thing I see here is that Seoptember 30 is very close.

Taking my case above, a buy at today's .38 looks pretty safe--a move to $1.00 would be a return of just over 150%.

What am I missing?

Seriously, anybody got $32MM to spare? It seems to me that unless one of the parties decides to cut off their nose to spite their face, there's an easy double and maybe more from today's .38

Joe

otc--tell us more about dtrx. Looks like they reversed losses and made a nice proft, despite some significant one-tiem charges. Without the charges, numbers would have been even better. The earning srelease attributes the results in part to specilty applications that may not continue at as high a level.

What more do you know about the business?

TIA

CGIH - does anyone have a feel for how long it will be before the move to the Amex actually occurs?

Certainly, a move from the bbs to the Amex is a big boost.

no problem EVO--you can link to my posts as you see fit...