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I personally don't know Wall Street but if I were you I'd ask him nicely to stick around. He has experience in this arena (equity council), he has shared examples of what happens behind the curtain, and is willing to respond to questions quite often.
I don't think he stated that he no longer owned any shares. I believe he stated he was watching this and had no position at the time. Two very different things. (My guess is he has/had a price in mind to buy a slug depending on the asset sale/timeframe).
He made a statement based on what was known at the time and came back this weekend and in his mind something has changed. In many ways I agree with him.
I have a small position in this and still doing research on competitors etc at which point I may buy more or sell. I hope he and others stick around otherwise sharing their knowledge.
A123 had their own facility that supposedly cost $500M, Valence doesn't IIRC.
That said I never understood why JCI needed the facility of A123 as they have unused capacity in their plant that was a JV with Saft.
Chevy-
Do you know of any places where one can short penny stocks? My broker doesn't allow it but I've been told there are some that do?
The reason for asking is the market is pricing this as a $0. Bonds would get paid first and there is a lot of debt in pretty unproductive land (imo) for it to sell. However, with the preferreds last trading at $.25 and for some reason the common selling at $.30 I would like to pair trade them.
Short the commons and go long the prefereds in equal amounts. If the sales do not cover the debt then both the prefereds and common are toast and I would break even(ish). If the auction provides more than expected then the prefereds would have to paid in full $25 + intetest before common sees a dime. While there are not many shares and therefore a relatively small hurdle to jump to get to commons I would get $25/share and then lose out on the value of the commons. Overall probably a big money winner.
Thoughts?
BTW, I gave up my subscription and therefore ability to PM on here due to lack of time I spend investing.
Thanks for the valuable response.
I didn't realize the bid got that low during the day as I didn't see anything on the sentencing front. I now see articles on the 17 years which I hadn't before but I still don't see anything in PACER.
I agree with everything else you wrote as a settlement is not worth anything after sentencing and time is more important that dollars.
The articles I can find on this state that he must also pay restititution which will be determined in 90 days. Wouldn't restitution be payable to the company? Granted he is going to appeal this for a long time.
Who is going to get the monies from the insider trading amount that the DOJ just filed to get? The original shareholders?
BTW, you are correct on the payables amount. I grabbed just the amount on Liabilities subject to compromise. I apologize for thinking you were negative. You had more informationt than I did which is deadly for me. Thanks for your time to respond.
I respect your opinion and knowledge but I'm confused by your statement. Was this meant for the FEEDQ board?
The 11 cent bid is normal for outside of the normal trading day. I'm not seeing anything on Pacer outside of the request by the gov to liquidate $65M of the seized assets (#1702) which per the doc is about 1/3 or the total value of the seized assets and the objections by Brooks.
At this point the case for shareholders rests on there being a global settlement which has been hinted at for quite a while in many of the documents along with the idea of what amount would go back to the company to pay back debtors with the hope that any remaining will be distributed to shareholders.
If the estate gets 100% of its amount that it claims was damaged by Brooks that is $90M. Subtract out total liabilities of $41M divide by shares outstanding and you get $1.00/share and more if you assume that mgmt will cancel any of the shares that are owned by Brooks which the gov't states are 6M but estimates from a former board poster a few years ago was closer to 20M shares. I know you general disdain for many of the attorneys in the BK process but in BK docket #2710 shows the debtors attornies justifying their value to the company so clearly something is still going on. If it was a zero
What am I missing?
I must admin that I expect that the above mentioned Global Settlement would have been finalized/agreed to before sentencing.
Why are you negative on it?
I hold a soft spot in my heart for this company as I worked for them in a variety of roles in college and have former coworkers who are still friends but they've needed help for a while.
When they were an S&L they were a solid bank who did a lot of mortgage lending and had no issues during the myriad of S&L crises. In the 1990s they moved to being a smaller, more personal version of M&I bank in Wisconsin like Associated Bank (out of Green Bay) is. Wisconsin doesn't have a ton of Chase, Citi or BofA branches but instead has a lot of rural community banks and in the Madison area a former ton of credit unions that have merged and own a lot of the market.
Historically Credit Unions have struggled for customers due to requirements of members and basically unavailable locations. With changes and mergers CUs in Madison such as Summit CU and UW Credit Union are strong and growing and getting a lot of business.
Anchor should be able to capitalize on some of the mistakes that I see from M&I now that they are now BMO Harris as every month you get notices of new fees, reduced branches etc. Anchor often has branches right next to or near M&I and should be trying to get these customers with advertising free checking, etc. When I live in NJ Commerce Bank was doing great (not buy its rates) but longer lobby hours (9 PM on weeknights) and open all day Saturday and Sunday. A change like this for Anchor could be done and would be successful. Add in some more underwriting for rural land and businesses (farmers) and they could add lots of assets quickly. A solid strategy would be to buy a bunch of small community banks in communities of 3-5k people. There is also a lot of nepotism in many parts of HQ.
Current leadership for the past 18 months seems solid but unspectatular and that will not cut it.
Anybody understand how this deal works. My limied understanding of the agreement is that the City of Detroit owned 50% and City of Winsor, Ont owned 50% of the tunnel and that American Roads is responsible for operations, maintenance, etc.
Its also an interesting time as traffic on both this and the Ambassador Bridge has been declining since 2000, not just since the recession in 2088/09. My understanding is that the Ambadassor bridge gets about 2/3 or the traffic in this area and there was approval last year to build a second bridge.
If Syncora is smart they should attempt to do what the PANYNJ does and only collect tolls in one direction but charging 2x as much. This would free up space on the other side where they could put a gas station as they have at the Ambassador Bridge which is in a duty free zone. Gas is a nickel or dime cheaper but $.50 cheaper to the Bridge Co and where the Bridge makes its money.
Thank you.
I agree. Highly recommmended. Had a position in Dec 2011-April 2012 and i sold at damn near the high. Mostly luck but I put it into a stock that is now down 50%.
I plan to be getting back in soon.
Nothing on Pacer. Hearing tomorrowing regarding sentencing of Brooks. I was going to call to see if I could listen via CourtCall but forgot.
The conference should be private after all they didn't let Mr. Cohen's representation in there even though they have been deeply involved since day 1. Nothing in Pacer today.
I was wondering who that was. Congrats.
I thought last years capital raise was rough.
This one is probably worse even though its with a better firm.
The company supposedly has a bunch of projects with some major outfists but until these test cases turn into sales it will be disappointing.
If I don't see considerable movement with Norfolk Southern by July 1 I'll trim my position in half. If nothing comes to fruition by January and hopefully sooner with BMW I will be done in Jan.
I will expect some good news with ePower in the near future but any revenues there are 18 months out imo.
Fin-
Thanks for the document. I will agree with you that JCI has a need for a patent portfolio. They already have idle mfg space for Li battery production in that they have a barely used factory in Michigan from their failed JV with SAFT. Their SAFT JV failed as SAFT after teaming with JCI for automotive then built another factory and HQ in Florida for stationary applications. JCI cancelled the JV keeping the plant which I believe is running at less than 30% capacity.
Here is JCI investors day presentation. Battery industry starts on page 81.
http://www.johnsoncontrols.com/content/dam/WWW/jci/corporate/investors/2012/JCI%202013%20Outlook%20and%20Strategic%20Review.pdf
The key slide in this is page 88 where they admit they have white space or basically no product. They admit they needs something beyond the Stop/Start market with their AGM batteries (which actually isn't optimal either as they fail too quickly) and some of the more expensive LiOn chemistries. JCI has proposed the 12/48V system in one battery case but there is concerns about having two battery chemistries together. Valence's safer battery would be a good story here.
The head of the Power Division (batteries) is Alex Molinari and is by far the smallest of the 3 divisions at JCI at $5B in sales vs $14 and 21B respectively in automotive (interiors/seating) and building controls. Yet Alex is basically being groomed to be the next chairman becoming Vice Chairman in Jan.
http://www.jsonline.com/business/johnson-controls-promotes-alex-molinaroli-to-vice-chairman-5o8glvo-188206501.html
FD: No position at this time.
Thanks for posting this. Off to digest.
FD: No position as I don't like the marketplace for Miners right now but was watching for any good news.
I'm gonna disagree. Electric cars aren't new. They have been around for 100 years. Like then and now AFFORDABLE Batteries and not energy dense enough to replace what we think of as a car. The weight of a car to its passengers just doesn't work.
E-Bikes, e-scooters, e-motorcycles I think will be huge, especially in developing markets but you simply cannot expand Moore's law to a manufacturing industry. Moore's law works for chips as the key is knowledge not the actual material costs. Go back 100 years and you will see incremental improvement in batteries at the improved rate of 3-7% year not 2x in 18 months.
Some of the cool Aluminum Air batteries just announced in a lab won't be ready for mainstream market for 10 years plus.
Go look at the JCI powerpoint I posted a few back and look at their projections of the marketplace. Traditional ICE engines will add start/stop and micro-hybrids but not go pure EV. The price isn't there.
I think there is some IP there that give them some protection and definitely have value but in general all these guys (JCI, Saft, panasonic) can be in business and still make good money.
I'm not a chemist but my crude understanding is that LFP batteries are more stable (safer) than Li Oxides but have less energy density. In my mind if you can make one Li battery you can make another and should depending on the end use. LFP should do better in the slower evolving utility/infrastructure markets but should be hard to displace. The battery utility fire in Hawaii last year is a perfect example for why they utilities would want a more stable battery. Germany should have lots of demand for this as they are committed to 25% power from renewables but they are starting to have grid stability problems that come with renewables as they aren't replacing peak loads. Batteries should be able to expand this. This battery doesn't have the energy density of some other Li batteries so it wouldn't be an optimal choice for an EV car, imo. However, in the litigation happy US market it may have better acceptance which again have lots of value for someone.
There is also value to how to make these batteries. For a Korean or Chinese company it would take years to not only really get batteries but even longer for a process to make them. For $100M you can save yourself lots of money in R&D.
In the end, I can see your thought on an outcome here. May pick up a small position. What % of the debt and equity does Berg hold?
Fin-
Thanks for the tip. I'll take a look.
I had written this BK off a long time ago after no OEC was allowed to form. I assumed Berg was going to anything that is left.
However, I agree with you that JCI somewhat tipped their hand with the bidding for A123. Originally I couldn't understand why JCI would be interested in A123 as they already have an automotive plant in Michigan that is basically idled after their dissolution of their agreement with Saft in 2011. I had assumed that their bid was to get part of the $90M DOE ARRA battery mfg grant and maybe their IP on their Li Start-Stop battery. Additionally JCI has put out the plan for a 2 battery system (12V Lead Battery/48V Lithium Battery). The Lead Acid will start the car and the 48V will handle all the electric (start-stop), etc in todays cars (known as the hotel load). Below is a presentation by them.
http://www.johnsoncontrols.com/content/dam/WWW/jci/corporate/investors/2012/Baird%20conference%202012--Johnson%20Controls.pdf
Since I am trying to catch up. Was there ever a formal conference to determine a need for on OEC? I see in the biling doc #331 - Exhibit B - pages 38-39 that they were doing a financial comparison between the A123 and Valence. I'd love to get anything they could on it. Personally I think that most LiOn battery tech is mostly a commodity with marginal differntiation and that the value in the IP is the actual operating factory and technology to put the battery together.
Is there a stalking horse or a auction date set?
Awesome. Somebody paniced and went to sell $600 worth of stock and got $60 less commissions. I enjoy these subpenny cases.
Can anyone on here give me a quick synopsis of MNKD problems/potential.
I like reading this board but you are all way beyond my skill level. The biotech field I can figure out but I have one family member that is like the pig at breakfast (fully committed on MNKD) where I recommend being more like the chicken. Today he sent an email to his family with the SA article telling people that they should be buying this. I have been contacted by two family members that respect my advice and all I have been able to tell them is "Biotech is in my too hard pile. If it was easy and guaranteed it wouldn't be where it is today"
Anybody help with a balanced review for the company.
Did you buy because of the docket and the meeting scheduled for Jan 3rd.
Quite the binary event.
Nice work. I think we are getting close to the finish line. I have my full % here and am waiting to hear the outcome. Will be interesting I expect.
No position here but I watch a few of you guys.
Was there ever any filings back in septmeber that the extension by Blackrock was only 90 days? That seems material enough to me that it should have been in a filing.
I agree that there should be a lawsuit. The money we are talking about is large enough.
Ugly news for those invested. Sorry guys.
Whoops. Wrong amounts on my notes.
Prior to opening bid I could have seen $10-11. If INTL does get involved you could see $10-11 otherwise you maybe see $8 as I expect Imagination to jump the current bid from CEVA.
A different and maybe more unique play for them would be a play for MIPS. They have been up for sale for a while. Announced a buyer, just got a new credible offer.
MIPS has been generally in low end consumer electronic devices but they use little energy and a little I have read states that they struggle getting wins for the past few years as people don't believe they will be around long term. INTL could buy them for pocket change and come at ARMH from below. Some engineers think MIPS is better than ARMH anyway. The stock is basically trading at the new unsolicited bid. Its worth the risk/reward for me in the short term (few months).
Downside - Goes to original bid @ $6.70
Upside - I can easily do the math to get to $10-11/share.
I'd assume the seller is part of the Brooks family. Any settlement discussion will probably void the shares they own and I don't believe that they are under trading restrictions at this time.
It could be simply a fund slowly liquidating a position as well but if you've hung around this long why quit now?
Anybody have any thoughts on the continued weekly 100k share sales weekly. It looks like someone is slowly trying to sell 100k shares each week and we've finally hit the point where the buyers are running out of powder.
I have a guess who the seller is probably related to and am frustrated by how long this is taking. I figured if there was a a settlement Cohen would want it done before sentencing as it would make him look better but now I wonder if he really cares. Are his arguments and his new famous lawyer just a dog and pony show to play out the string until the settlement or is he really crazy.
Any odds on how long we have. Greater or less than 6 months? I go less and we'll know something in January.
Well the weekly volume of 100k shares showed up a day early on Tuedsay instead of Wednesday this week. The prior two weeks it had been on Wednesdays but the two weeks beore that they were on a Thursday and a Friday. Somebody bigger than most retail has picked up 750k shares.
I don't see anything via Pacer so again we wait.
Col. Sanders-
I remember a few months ago you posted some vague hints about owning a stock etc in LA, owned by certain funds etc that you really liked and because I was inquisitive I came across this one and another one that escapes me. I bought a few shares for tracking but I have to ask you about your thesis.
On EVIQ (formerly Merulo) you appear to be very apprehensive on the state of the Californian economy, especially its municipalities to be able to pay their bills effectively. How then can you hold this. This company provides a service for flow mgmt of transportation networks. To me, if a budget starved muni, state etc has to make cuts their first cuts are to services that are nice for a community but not critical. Fixing potholes are critical, helping people nagivate traffic is not. The gov't role is to provide the service. There are enough outfits out there such as Waave that will do this for the consumer.
Why the love for a company that is tied to gov't contracts?
The Diligent Investor weighs in.
http://thediligentinvestor.blogspot.com/2012/10/4kids-entertainment-inc-files.html
4Kids Entertainment, Inc. Files Reorganization Plan Preserving Equity Interests
Some of my favorite lines from his thoughts.
POR and DS is out.
Docket #887 and #888.
All claims holders to be paid in full.
Equity will retain interest in the company and in reorginazation is expected to be worth around $.69 upon emergence.
Their reorg plan assumes they can grow revenues fairly quickly and will be a 100% licensing company with only 8 employees.
I hold some shares and will continue to hold upon emergence. Reading between the lines I can see a plan for them that is risky but could be a lotto play. They also have over $110M in NOLs out to 2031 that could be used if they can get profitable.
Thanks for your thoughts. They are very appreciated.
My thesis for holding for a while now has been based on your #1. When I saw the filings by Terry Brooks in the criminal court I had the same thoughts as you did in #2 and #3. However, I didn't realize that they were divorced. (Do you think its a real divorce or a divorce in name only to try and keep assets?)
I assume that if equity was to get something they would try to cancel her shares otherwise she is effectively paying herself.
Unfortunately, this looks like it will continue to drag on. I was hoping for something in October due to the sentencing dates and the extension until mid-month. Oh, well.
Congrats to all. I was still doing my DD up until late last night on this. Had an buy order in for this morning that didn't get filled, obviously.
Looks like we will be waiting a while longer to see what is in that settlement agreement.
Docket #2274 and #2276 the order approving 2274 grant an extension out to mid-April 2013 based on the fact that settlement talks with the US government are on-going. Also news that that the Brooks' sentencing hearing scheduled for later this month will be pushed out.
Anybody still reading this have thoughts on if equity gets in the money?
Took a look at it. Read the PACER filings that Rodney referenced. To be honest I read it like a coin flip in that if there is a competitive bid holders will do very well however if not you will probably lose a little. I get why Rodney likes it from a weighted risk/reward standpoint.
The part that is neat to me is I tried to put myself in a position that if I didn't read Rodney's post what would I have done when I saw their initial filing. Starting at the beginning I would have concluded equity was dead and I would have stopped following. For Rodney to do enought DD to even keep following this and figure out the potential buyers is a skill that I don't have.
That said, I don't have the time to follow it in detail like I should so I have no position.
80k shares traded today - 45k at 11:00EST which is the same time as the 100k shares that were traded last Thursday. However, today all the sales are at the bid so its a seller.
Nothing on Pacer re the BK court, or the criminal case. Am I missing a case or am I being paranoid that someone knows something here.
Yesterday a trade goes off for 100k shares right between the B/A. Causes me to look for news and I didn't find any. Today no volume.
Wonder if it was just someone shifting between accounts. Anybody know anything else?
I'm simply stumped why this company went public in the first place.
Don't disagree with that story but we see a slowly improving default picture, we see improved new sales numbers.
To me your statement tells me one of a few things.
1. RDN under-reserved more than its competitors who have fallen by the wayside and this will eventually catch them. I find this hard to believe as I doubt the states insurance boards would not be on this. If it was true the improving market may hide this as the recovery will dampen it. The only way to check for this will be underperformance vs their peers going forward. Something to watch for sure.
2. The entire housing market takes another correction. If so I have bigger issues to worry about. Banks are more levered than these guys and were the canary before the insurance guys.
3. General economic slowdown. - Again I have other worries.
Simply I think the market is ovestating the downside risk here.
Chevy - Nobody on Ihub likes this company.
Its above $1.00 share, hell its above $.10 share.
It has a real business with real, REAL sticky clients.
It is one of the few surviving players in the industry that you or I can buy equity in.
I own it at higher price than your post in May but I think you did well for yourself.
Was any of this due to the supposed demand by MPG to sell their assets? If true this may prove to be a repricing of some of EVOQs properties or maybe a bidding war by some losers.