BREAKING: AMC Theaters announces deal to acquire Carmike Cinemas for $30.00 per share in cash, or approximately $1.1 billion.

Congrats on this one EI, hope it is a large holding for you!

Sorry, although I know who you are referring to, that's not me.

Tender offer canceled:

http://247wallst.com/services/2016/01/21/scholastic-terminates-dutch-auction-tender-offer/

They have chosen to not issue a contra account to be cashed out then, and so I will hold shares in essentially a dark bank.

Thanks EI, but hang on this got interesting it seems...

I was cashed out fine in one account at TradeKing which I had added that morning to make a full position....

...however when I added some shares in my Interactive Brokers account I was NOT cashed out due to settlement reasons (t+3).

It's odd that the discretion seemed to be to the broker to handle it, the wording in the filing was "We intend that Stock held in street name, through a broker, bank or other nominee, will be treated in the same manner" so I suppose it allows it to happen.

-V

Thanks for bringing this one up, it seems interesting. Have you read through the press release for today?

http://www.bluestem.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Bluestem-Group-Q3-2015-Earnings-Press-Release.pdf

They are showing $22.3MM in FCF on $27MM in adjusted EBITDA. I haven't read through in depth yet though.

Acquired! Congrats to all that stayed in this one.

http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2015/10/05/centerstate-banks-looks-to-south-florida-for.html

New RELY presentation for DB Leveraged Finance Conference:

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/156459015008160?cik=38984

includes some credit highlights and leverage comps

Last trade now up to 17.1 it looks:

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.jsp?ticker=C170460&startdate=08/01/2012&enddate=11/01/2013

The scenario you state would be quite interesting, never thought it would even be possible but doesn't take an insane recovery rate to get there in theory!

Mental note:

$45MM / 0.3MM Notes outstanding = $150 per

Last MOR had ~ $115 per note of assets currently

$115 + $150 = $265 per vs. $160 for the last trade:

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.jsp?ticker=C170460&startdate=08/01/2012&enddate=11/01/2013

Overly simplistic, but anyway value remains intact.

-Pagz

Article from NYT:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/23/business/a-internet-mortgage-provider-reaps-the-rewards-of-lending-boldly.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0

MOR for April is out:

http://dm.epiq11.com/TMI/Document/GetDocument/2594514

Some new comments in the financial statement notes regarding JPM proceedings.

-Pagz

Scanning the 10-K, that seems to be the case:

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/156459015001692?cik=38984

I missed that it was back into continuing ops, thanks.

New investor deck out ahead of the annual meeting:

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/156459015004624?cik=38984

1) An interesting quote to begin
2) A new operating company? (Cosmedicine)
3) Info on hedging

-Pagz

I agree with EI here and hold plenty of shares myself for these reasons. The only thing I would add is the importance of paying down the higher-rate acquisition debt, which they've indicated will happen and help more cash flow hit the bottom line vs. interest.

-Pagz

Just as a quick reference point, current comp. P / ABV:

AGO: 26.26 / 53.66 or 49%
MBI: 8.87 / 24.87 or 36%


-Pagz

Here I'll help out:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bnccorp-inc-reports-first-quarter-net-income-rose-794-to-32-million-or-078-per-diluted-share-300070772.html

So what do you think about half of net income for the year was from an income tax benefit? Following that, guess just wondering where a very small refiner should trade at on EBITDA multiple basis.

Although I have a feeling you are probably extrapolating '15 results from encouraging '14 margin data to get your price targets on a forward rather than trailing number :)

-Pagz

I never thought I'd see the day Chevy goes GARP-y on banks! I do think you have a solid one here though.

BOFI has found its niche for growth in using tech, this is reflected in their strong ROA. All else equal leverage-wise, they should continue high ROE.

Slide 6 proves this operational leverage, w/ salaries at 50% of the peer groups and premise costs a third.

The key here is can they continue to grow assets? I believe w/ the acquisition of H&R Block assets they show commitment to inorganic moves to juice the organic growth that will occur from industry shifts. Millennials such as myself will stray further from traditional banking when the opportunity presents itself and technology will drive such changes.

I saw this today:

http://www.wsj.com/video/withdraw-cash-without-a-card-theres-an-app-for-that/84DF51B9-1FA1-40C9-9479-C92CA7B7811E.html

I will leave it up to you to decide what one would pay for such a scenario, I am not quire sure. Being conservative, if you take the most recent earnings and annualize, it is still only at 18x that earnings (solid for such growth). BV will be less relevant for peer multiples due to the "online" nature vs. traditional book and mortar.

-Pagz

Make that 15.8% now from 21,271,100 shares:

http://whalewisdom.com/schedule13d/view/spo-advisory-corp-sc-13da-2015-03-05-oas

Account looks cleaned up, confirmed at 30% over-subscription.

After just chatting with Interactive Brokers, I would doubt that EI(sadly).

They are re-processing the corporate actions and the share counts will not be settled until Monday. At the end of the day today, they changed to what looks to be 30% over-subscription.

However, I have not been reimbursed the cash back yet into the account. Guess we'll just sort things out Monday and enjoy the weekend.

-Pagz

Does anyone else have both SGGHU and SGRH sitting in their account right now? First glance it seems to be more over-subscription shares than we were planning on.

$.50 ask now as it's been moving up, I take no one wanting to part with shares easily as a good sign. I imagine that years later, many of these have probably moved into long-term resolution / permanent hands.

New 8-K out, with an investor presentation:

https://www.bamsec.com/filing/119312515040411?cik=38984

As an investor it doesn't matter. In fact, if one would like to accumulate more it's a positive in the short-term.

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
-Warren Buffett

Agreed.

http://dm.epiq11.com/TMI/Document/GetDocument/2545155

October MOR out, BarCap settlement received so total assets equals $38,295,680.

http://dm.epiq11.com/TMI/Document/GetDocument/2543279

With 300,000 notes outstanding that's $127.65 per.

The notes traded back up above this value after the MOR came out:

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.jsp?ticker=C170460&startdate=08/01/2012&enddate=11/25/2014

Straight out of the 10-K Denny:

Add this 50% to the 1/3 of outstanding shares owned by management stated in the presentation means there is only:

$6 MM mkt cap - $3 MM via Lehman - $2 MM mgmt = $1 MM entire remaining float $ / $18 pps = 55,555 shares

...not much at all.

Flurry of trades after nothing for two months:

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondTradeActivitySearchResult.jsp?ticker=C170460&startdate=08/01/2012&enddate=10/30/2014

In case you want to check them out:

http://kettlehill.com/philosophy.php

Part 2:

Let's assume $10 per share offering and then $10 for the rights offering:

$125 MM goal
-$40 MM via share offering
$85 MM needed from rights

$85 MM / $10 = 8.5 MM shares via rights

16.201 MM s/o / 8.5 MM new rights shares = (let's round for fees) 2 shares needed for 1 new share

16.201 + 8.5 = 24.701 new shares * (new value let's say $10) = ~ $250MM equity value

Say they also do $100MM of EBITDA eventually:

A) The multiple = add up the debt + $250MM / 100MM >>> need full debt number

B) What would be a good multiple for this?

Price levels are merely placeholders, just thinking out loud. Thanks.

-Pagz

Pagz back of envelope typed out model Part 1:

12.201 MM s/o (latest financials)
4.000 MM planned share offering
16.201 MM s/o post-offering

let vOP = offer price

$125MM equity finance component
-4(vOP) equity raise $
125 - 4(vOP) post-offering $ needed from rights

let vRP = rights price

[125 - 4(vOP)] / vRP = shares needed via rights

16.201 / [ [125 - 4(vOP)] / vRP ] = shares for 1 rights offering share

16.201 + [[125 - 4(vOP)] / vRP] = new share count

...what will the offerings be price at?

Thinking out loud on the math to make us whole using 30% lawyer fees (per note):

$878.12 to make whole -
~$75 in assets via MOR -
~$52 post-lawyer fees via Barclays -
~$40 via Goldman (25%ish recovery and 30% fees)
$711.12

$711.12 * 300K notes = $213,336,000

x= recovery amount
x - 30%x = $213,336,000

x = $304,765,714

$304,765,714 / $1,900,000,000 = 16% recovery via JPM needed

If they can get anything meaningful, I say pay 'em as it will benefit us nicely.

-Pagz

Assuming we got around the same settlement recovery with Goldman (25%), that creates $17M + $23M from Barclays + $23M in assets = $63MM.

$63MM / .3MM notes = $210 per vs. $120 on last trade

Risk / reward still strong with the large JPM suit to go, if things are how I see.

Looks like a settlement with Barclays just popped up:

http://dm.epiq11.com/TMI/Document/GetDocument/2513318

MOR is out but I don't see anything in it about Goldman when I checked over lunch. Do you?

...accumulation afterwards quickly reversed my previous post. Feel free to delete, don't want to clog up things for new investors.