Cost of debt financing < Cost of equity financing so really that part should not sink the stock. The company is so unknown that it will probably rarely move out its channel unless there is a PR regarding projects, financials released, or a large holder wants in or out quickly.

ND: Bakken wells will pump for nearly 3 decades


BISMARCK, N.D. (AP) -- A typical well drilled in North Dakota's rich Bakken and Three Forks formations will produce about 540,000 barrels of oil during its 29-year lifespan and will generate more than $20 million in net profit, according to state Department of Mineral Resources data.

Over its lifetime, an average Bakken or Three Forks well will pay more than $4.5 million in taxes and about $7.5 million in royalties to its mineral owners, agency data show.

Drilling horizontally into the formations, which lie two miles underground in western North Dakota, costs companies about $7.9 million; each well will pay more than $2 million in salaries and wages over its lifetime, the agency said.

North Dakota, the nation's No. 2 oil producer behind Texas, had a record 6,921 producing wells in March, or nearly double the amount for the same month in 2007, when the state's oil rush still was in its infancy.

State data show there were 3,382 Bakken and Three Forks wells in March. Those formations have been the biggest producers of crude in recent years, due to advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques.

Most oil produced in North Dakota during the past 60 years has come from the Madison formation, a layer of oil producing rock directly above the Bakken that was tapped for decades using traditional vertical wells.

North Dakota oil drillers produced a record 152.9 million barrels of crude in 2011, up more than 35 percent and nearly 40 million more barrels than the previous record set a year earlier. More than 80 percent of the state's oil production last year came from the Bakken and Three Forks.

A record 217 rigs were drilling in the state's oil patch on Tuesday. Nearly 95 percent of rigs drilling in North Dakota are aimed at the Bakken and Three Forks. State and industry officials say 99 percent of them hit oil, while nine of 10 are profitable.

An average Bakken or Three Forks well initially produces about 923 barrels of oil daily but drops to about half that within the first couple of years, data show. The wells produce an average of 76 barrels a day after five years and drop to less than 10 barrels daily after 25 years, the agency said.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/nd-bakken-wells-pump-nearly-170254013.html

Simple answer is the announcements of the breaking ground at Tioga and Stanley. Without the press releases, the average investor would have no idea of such developments. Should be interesting when more are made.

EI that sounds like me and all the yellow sticky notes I cover my desk in during the work day.

The white board idea is great and I think maybe many tech companies like Google do that to catch the spontaneous creative element. In fact, last year when I worked for GSI / eBay the cubicle walls were all lined with whiteboards. Definitely came in handy sometimes for the amount I had to write down quick when my boss would call down from the executive suite literally every 10 minutes for projects he needed like a half hour before.

EI don't stop with whiteboards, add some smart boards! My company is opening an office in Manhattan (eventually) and the CFO is getting those interactive screens you see on CNBC and ESPN on the wall of his office. Needless to say, I might spend some time in that room.

If you do start your own firm, I'll be first in line with my resume behind Chevy haha.

"Trees are being cleared from the site..."

Assuming this is the area they are referring to, if you look northeast of town you can see the large amount of green cleared out already.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=makoti,+nd&hl=en&ll=47.968219,-101.783764&spn=0.035515,0.062056&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=42.85226,63.544922&hnear=Makoti,+Ward,+North+Dakota&t=f&z=14&ecpose=47.96359602,-101.7837656,4145.48,0.011,8.329,0

Satellites are a beautiful thing.

Depending on how often the USDA Farm Service Agency updates these images, we can even see progress in areas DYNV is operating now.

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=columbus,+nd&hl=en&ll=48.903744,-102.780306&spn=0.004358,0.007757&sll=47.565539,-100.578337&sspn=0.286327,0.496445&t=f&hnear=Columbus,+Burke,+North+Dakota&z=17&ecpose=48.90374423,-102.78030619,1167.59,-3.306,0,0

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=stanley,+nd&hl=en&ll=48.313118,-102.389922&spn=0.017638,0.031028&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=42.85226,63.544922&hnear=Stanley,+Mountrail,+North+Dakota&t=f&z=15&ecpose=48.31228456,-102.38992176,2302.35,0,3.273,0

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=tioga,+nd&hl=en&ll=48.397276,-102.938238&spn=0.017609,0.031028&sll=48.313118,-102.389922&sspn=0.017638,0.031028&t=f&hnear=Tioga,+Williams,+North+Dakota&z=15&ecpose=48.3964847,-102.93823801,2226.9,0,3.272,0

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=kenmare,+nd&hl=en&ll=48.675489,-102.081534&spn=0.008756,0.015514&sll=48.397276,-102.938238&sspn=0.017609,0.031028&t=f&hnear=Kenmare,+Ward,+North+Dakota&z=16&ecpose=48.67482229,-102.08153394,1881.06,0.001,3.27,0

I'd be glad to help out any way possible.
Hey Google Earth is pretty powerful and detailed these days...just look for bare areas right? haha

Best of luck guys.

Okay, one last gripe today about our favorite DYNV employee. Don't follow his Twitter, it actually sent me a direct message virus with a malicious link. That's a great thing to be spreading around our investor base haha.

Another funny tweet to me is that he says his cost basis is around $.06 including the free shares. He started posting his blog springtime of last year, so if you do a little algebra he either:

A) has a few hundred thousand shares, 75,000 of which came from DYNV with another 75,000 on the way or

B) he is just lying

Cost plus 8% contracting fee gives us a pretty good idea of margins for the Annabelle Homes projects.

See EI's post:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75368106

daniel@dcconsultingllc.com

BTW next response from Carpe DM:

"@VincePagano I'm a shareholder just like you! Check out $DSKX great potential there too"

This burned me up trying to pump another stock, I won't let it end on Twitter that's for sure. And I sent this email to PR:

Hello Daniel,

We as shareholders would like to know the rationale behind retaining Carpe DM, Inc. for "internal relations". The service provided by the blog is not beneficial to actively promoting our company. In fact, there are numerous shareholders, myself included, who have done more analysis in public forums (such as InvestorsHub) and on Twitter.

For such a small company, keeping costs low is paramount and Carpe DM has not shown to provide any benefit. The growth alone and grassroots efforts by us shareholders do more good than this specific stock promoter. He is using a free blog as his platform anyway and his Twitter is full of penny stock traders.

We would like to see more long-term investors in Dynamic Ventures, to give it the legitimacy it needs to thrive going forward. This will give the company the valuation it deserves instead of being grouped with scams in the minds of micro-cap investors. Since the company is using stock as a finance tool as well, it would be in their best efforts.

There is a core group of similar deep value investors as myself that have expressed these same concerns and so I thought I would reach out to you. We feel a direct, open communication with the company will calm many shareholders. Thank you for your time and consideration, we eagerly await your response.

So here was Carpe DM's response to me on Twitter:

"@VincePagano The shareholders don't pay me, but thanks for asking. DYNV results are in! http://www.nasdaq.com/article/dynamic-ventures-corporation-reports-first-quarter-2012-financial-and-operational-results-20120515-00705";

So, he only posts a link to the results after I tell him....and many hours after I was the first to tweet it. This was my response:

"@CarpeDMinc The company pays you, we own the company, hence we pay you....that was my logic. $DNYV"

Such a joke, he gets paid to do (terribly) what we do on our lunch breaks.

As an active tweeter in the value investing community, it blows my mind that we as shareholders pay that guy. I sent him a tweet about DYNV, my Twitter is @VincePagano if you'd like to see it or want me to relay any more messages.

As a follow up to my previous quick evaluation, I took the newest financials, dumped them into a spreadsheet, and extrapolated the other 3 quarters using the same margins. Follow the link to the Google document and feel free to play with the variables if you'd like. I was just thinking out loud before I grab some dinner and dig through the filing some more. Maybe we could all collaborate on valuations? Long day at work, time for some down time to watch basketball.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoKSSWEAyGLOdHdEYlNub05vM2ptYkk4M04yeGlTaGc

I love EI's analogy to a toll operator:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=75384266

I was explaining this to someone another way with pipelines.
No matter the price of oil (in our case housing) the operator receives the same fee for transport (construction).

Good spot to be in.

Following your logic, let me take a quick stab on a break here at cheapness:

Rev = $45 (.08) = $3.6 MM
G&A = $(1.7) MM
Op. Income = $1.9 MM

At current tax rates, the taxes on this would be covered by NOL's.
If you divided this by your 55 MM shares, you get about $.035.

30X seems a little high, so if we used 10X to be conservative that's a nice return. Now, at this valuation you are still getting Stanley ND, Kenmore, Plaza, Columbus, and Crosby projects all for free according to EI's post earlier.

Needless to say, I see plenty of opportunity and full disclosure I am long since about $.09.

Let's get some analysis going, like I said this was a quickie so feel free to poke all kinds of holes in it.

Good luck all.

I agree Chevy, then I would actually post probably. As of now, anything of substance just gets lost in the useless other posts. I don't mind keeping the steak secret though, makes it taste better for the rest of us haha. I wonder if anyone here can show me their valuation model that shows $1 - $2 a share. Just curious.

Side note- been working on a very large and technical project at the day job and haven't been able to respond to your PM's. On my list of things to do, since I'd rather discuss on email than this board.

-Pagz

EI, I thought FCAL didn't have any options available. Am I wrong on that?

FCAL response:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-california-responds-pacwest-bancorps-112700271.html

"The First California Board did not believe that it was in the best interests of stockholders to grant exclusivity to PacWest in the absence of satisfactory clarification of the terms and value of its proposal and taking into account the other strategic alternatives that First California may pursue, including discussions with third parties."

I like the sound of that last part.

FCAL gets buyout offer from PACW

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/09/pacwestbancorp-idUSL4E8G913F20120509?type=companyNews&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43

...turning down $7.25/share in PACW stock

Chevy, just as a little heads up I've been lurking here wading through the noise for you and EI's DD posted so far.
I like the macro idea and initiated a starter position today at a hair over $.09. Like you, I can't wait to see Q1 financials.

Sorry, that's what I have too. I've been keeping an eye on it so I'll keep you updated.

How can you say it is a gold mine when, as EI has stated, equity is billions from being in the money? I never understood the point in playing around in bankrupt stocks when risk adjusted they usually are a loss of capital. Don't get me wrong I hope equity is in the money because then the senior notes are paid in full, but it doesn't make sense to my young analytical mind. If you are trading swings in penny stocks wouldn't you want plenty of liquidity? Now you just own lottery tickets it seems. But still, best of luck since your gain is mine as well.

I tested it and it looks like it has to be within 2 of the posted ask on Zion.

Thanks for the link. I had been using the FINRA site but for some reason had trouble accessing that table on my phone.

Hey Chevy, I know you use Zion Direct as well. Does it seem to you that the volume has dried up? Doesn't seem like any of these are ever up readily for sale and wondered if larger amounts have already been tucked away by others for the future. Wanted to re-balance the portfolio some and maybe average down but doesn't look like that is possible!

More like a lot late. And that was exactly the statement I made when I posted the link up on Twitter....needless to say analysts don't impress me much. Good ones disappear into the buy side anyway.
I'm grateful for Chevy and EI since I'm up over 50% here after following them into First Cali.

Upgraded to Buy at TheStreet Ratings:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11504278/1/first-california-financial-group-inc-stock-upgraded-fcal.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=EVOQ.PK+Interactive#symbol=evoq.pk;range=1m;compare=;indicator=ke_sd+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


"Yesterday, after remaining static for awhile, Evoq’s (formerly Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc.) stock price fell from $4.50 to $4.15. As I’ve been following this company, and the de facto (as opposed to de jure) people in authority of Evoq which comes from Mount Kellett Capital Management, this little piece of the puzzle I’ve been working out just put things into perspective. That the stock price dropped was reminiscent of leveraged buyout (LBO) strategies that I’ve seen play out before with my labor union clients when their members became innocent victims of corporate chess-masters."

That's what I'm referring to specifically from that guy's blog.

I must apologize I had a typo, I sold from $5.00 to $5.10. Basically, had a sell at $5 in place and some went over.

Anyway, I know you're not the PI and didn't mean you, just that Jan Tucker guy. I appreciate your effort to see LA cleaned up, coming from the East Coast I'd like to come to Cali. sometime and visit the state of a few of my holdings (ask Chevy haha). I also have family in San Diego I never get to see.

That guy thinks the $.15 move on a $14k total trade was manipulation? I'm a nobody and even I could have dumped shares and done that on such an illiquid stock. Not saying he isn't credible, but unless he proves those actions, it's just a conspiracy theory and should be treated as thus.

And he's a PI, so he would be a little biased towards anything that could get him some business:

"If you are a shareholder in Evoq and/or a stakeholder like the tenants and licensees that are already under attack, please contact me immediately to join the others who are uniting to fight against this economic attack."

Sagin, I didn't refer to your posting at all so I'm not quite sure what you mean. I was simply opening up the conversation to some of those with more experience in this space than me (Chevy, EI, Plan) and the investment merits of EVOQ going forward. I sold all my shares between $5 and $5.50, so seeing if it's worth another look.

I have been out of EVOQ(MMPI) for a while but haven't seen anyone discuss valuation lately. I am in no way a CRE expert so thought others could chime in about an article someone had posted on Twitter.

http://theurbanobserver.com/2012/03/09/desmond-building-plans-south-park/

In there, it says rents are from $30 psf. What is normalized for the West Coast? Here is my reasoning for wondering:

-EVOQ has 3.5 MM sq. feet of property (from the website)
-Unless I'm mistaken, the current EV is about $430 MM
-Dividing $430 / 3.5 = $122.53 psf "cost"
-Dividing $30 / $122.53 = 24.5%

My question is that some sort of rental yield metric or did I just make it up? Now of course it is for a single property against a portfolio avg. of sq. feet, so I understand the flaws.

I ran the same exercise with Liberty Property (which is right down the road from me) and their "cost" psf is a little over $100.

I might be totally off but thought I'd at least open things up for discussion.

I haven't heard any more on this, but my thinking was simply in the wording.

"The $1.8 billion-asset First California said Tuesday that it will pay $2 million, or roughly $1.59 a share, for the $141 million-asset Premier Service Bank. The stock deal translates into an exchange ratio of about 0.38 share of First California stock for each Premier common share."

When a company says it will pay X $MM, that's an exact number. The words "roughly and about" after implies that the ratio will float. Otherwise, I would think it would say something like this:

"The $1.8 billion-asset First California said Tuesday that shareholders will receive 0.38 shares of stock for each Premier common share. As of yesterday's close this translates into roughly $2 million, or $1.59 per share."

Just a thought from what I have seen, obviously not scientific in any form.

Chevy,

"Under the terms of the merger agreement, Premier Service Bank’s shareholders will receive, subject to certain adjustments, consideration of $2.0 million, or approximately $1.59 per share, in the form of FCAL common stock. Currently, this would equal 477,269 common shares and result in an exchange ratio of 0.3784 FCAL shares for each share of PSBK common stock outstanding."

Do you know if those adjustments mean merger offer amount? Otherwise, isn't the $1.59 per share set and the exchange ratio just fluctuates with FCAL price per share?

When I hear the word "rights" or "warrants" it sure catches my interest Chevy. I've got a nice little collection from various sources already haha.

Good morning all.

Well Chevy let's imagine real quick FCAL was approached with the same type of deal. PCBC is being sold for 2X BV and 2.25X TBV.

Apply those multiples to FCAL:

BV- 6.81 X 2 = $13.63
TBV- 4.19 X 2.25 = $9.43

Of course that is a coffee break hack job and not a valuation, but point being we're sitting on a healthy and cheap California bank. Now, if the multiple expansion we are seeing in the tech world would happen in these types of banks (when sentiment is there is recovery) we could approach those levels, but in the meantime I'd be perfectly happy with a slow steady climb. Well, that or a 100% premium buyout, I don't think we would hate that too much haha. Have a good day.

Fun little side note on how obscure these are:

I think (but not 100% sure) that I have been the buyer on every single transaction at $.04. Normally I wouldn't do it because of partial fills but for some reason I'm not getting penalized for it.

We all know there really hasn't been much news (and probably won't be unless for a pleasant surprise) so this was just portfolio re-balancing on my part. It did get me wondering what % of the shares outstanding we collectively own though; if we each have a couple then we're sitting on a decent amount in total I bet.

Hope everyone has a great week.

-V

True, and I agree. Here's what I was mulling over:

Banc Funds and Castine both hold predominantly financials and if you look at the banks they own, you could easily see a few that would want to buy FCAL. So,

1) If FCAL was sold here to one of those banks, they would quickly get both a return on their FCAL investment plus at a reasonable price (or even less reasonable since it'd be a zero-sum trade anyway), it could boost the returns to that purchasing bank.

or

2) FCAL is sold to another bank NOT held by them. They still get a return on their investment and quickly.

or

3) FCAL doesn't sell and they hold it on its own promising investment merits (like us).

Not a bad spot for these funds to be in as I see it.

Well, unless I'm mistake Wellington and Castine are both located in Boston haha. Could be interesting though if some of these holders jump on the "sell the bank" band wagon that we saw a little while ago.

Owner Name / Date /Shares Held / Change (Shares) / Change (%)/ Value (Thous.)

WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT CO LLP /12/31/2011 /2,892,787 /275,909 /10.54 /13,162

BANC FUNDS CO LLC /12/31/2011 /2,599,273 / 992,232 / 61.74 /11,827

CASTINE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC / 12/31/2011 /1,498,900 /463,900 / 44.82 /6,820


FWIW, just noticed the top 3 holders collectively have almost 25% of the 29.22 million shares outstanding. Taken off the NASDAQ site; sorry for the awful formatting.