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Here's one dinosaur that likes to type python code into his netbook and loves it. This thing is exactly what I hoped for. I installed xubuntu and now have a modern operating system that uses about 150 MB of ram and feels plenty fast. ( I did upgrade to 2GB though.)
Out of curiosity, I installed urban terror, a quake3 era first person shooter. ( I don't really play it much.) I get fps in the low 30s just running around in the levels.
http://www.urbanterror.info/news/home/
The fever is passing.
I felt the need for a netbook so I ran down to Costco and bought the cheapest one they had, lol. It turned out to be an Acer Aspire One. There was very little detail about the specs in the store, but with the return policy of Costco, I didn't care since I have 90 days, so I just bought it. When I first opened it, I saw that it has only a 48 WHour battery, and battery life is the most important spec for me, since my gaming laptop doesn't have that (and is big, heavy, and hot), and I want to be able to use it for productive things (mostly programming) rather than multimedia. Imagine my surprise when I found out that it has a pinetrail N450 Atom in it and gets 9 hours, 5 minutes on MobileMark 2007 even with the wimpy battery. Lucky me, and good job Intel!
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2358302,00.asp
Here's someone who likes his netbook better.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/185031-why-apple-s-ipad-cannot-compete-with-netbooks
The iPad is making me think I need a netbook even though I have a gaming laptop and 2 desktops, lol.
"writing a compiler for AMD and Via" is as simple as eliminating the CPUID check from ICC
I hope the FTC makes Intel do that. It would be hilarious.
Rolled my short Dec 19 puts to Jan.
Got 48 cents. I was hoping for more of a panic selloff, LOL. There may be some more to go if the market drops but I've missed a few moves trying to be patient so I jumped. Good luck all.
Sold some Dec strike 19 puts for 49 cents.
Cuomo sues Intel for antitrust.
Just saw it on Bloomberg. Says Intel ruled computer makers with an iron fist. Claims bribes and threats.
Sold some Nov 19 strike puts for 70 cents.
That bizarre trade after trading closed.
This is a repeat of an old post I made when this happened before.
This is not my idea but is from more than one book on daytrading that I read a while back. I'm not a daytrader but this is what I remember from what I read. Here's my mangled version:
With the advent of the internet, small-time daytrading has become much easier and more prevalent and daytraders can drive the trend in the short term. One favorite method of daytrading is to try to front-run large orders that tend to come from big institutional traders, based on watching the market depth. The idea is that if the trade goes in the wrong direction, you can get out when the market hits that big order, giving you a safety net. This is really annoying to large institutions: they can't just buy and sell with large orders because the market will run away from them. They are the oil tankers of the market. When they want to change a position it is something that can take weeks to do in order to achieve their price goals. So they have to disguise their intentions. What they do is put in a larger order a little away from the market in the opposite direction and get the daytraders to do the work for them. If you see a large order that melts away as the market approaches it, that order may be one of these. Also a large order that chases the market and never seems to quite catch it may be the same thing. At the same time they arrange for one or a few smaller brokers to take the other side of the market with small orders. Then they depend on the day traders to drive the market in the direction they desire. This can go on as long as there are day traders, weak hands, and short-term trend followers to join in. At the end of the day, the big guy settles up with the various small brokers who were doing the stealth trading for him at the day's net price.
FWIW
The end of the GPU roadmap
http://www.ubergizmo.com/15/archives/2009/08/tim_sweeney_the_end_of_the_gpu_roadmap.html
Stumbled upon this as I was surfing. Sorry if it has already been posted. Gives an idea of what game developers would like in the future. The larrabee seems well positioned for the long term. Be sure to check out the pdf slide show. Wish I understood it better, lol.
I've been sitting back and riding the roller coaster for the last few months, very happy with my INTC position and my gains.
It is annoying to miss a sale by a few cents, and last month's sale was an end of day panic event. But when I capitulate and chase the price, it's usually a signal for a major drop. (*twitches*) The TED spread has been falling like a rock recently, so I'm fighting the urge to load up right now.
Trying to sell June 15 puts for 65 cents
Had a GTC order in since this month's puts expired. Last month, the puts sold for 75 cents near a stock price of 15. This sale will probably require about 14.9 near term, so implied volatility has certainly dropped.
Sarmad, re: get assigned any INTC shares ?
(away playing left4dead last night)
Yes, I have been selling at-the-money puts to get maximum premium received and to accumulate shares. I normally expect to get assigned about half the time. I could have played this with one position and sell an at-the-money covered call the next month when I get assigned, and continue until it gets called away. That simple game would also make a good return unless the stock falls off a cliff. But I want to hold Intel at these prices. At around 50% implied volatility, the premium seems rich to me, so I'm selling options. With the down trend since Jan08, I have actually been assigned eleven times. I calculate my overall equivalent cost basis in the mid 17s.
My simple calculation: option premium is 1% of the underlying per month per 8.7% implied volatility for an at-the-money option. That is about 5% per month for Intel, although my short term timing has been bad, lol. So I don't have to be very good at short-term timing to make a profit. I'll do well in the long run since the stock doesn't even need to appreciate for me to profit, although I do expect Intel to recover with the economy due to its strong competitive and financial position.
My 75 cent put sale executed 4 seconds from the close, lol.
Sarmad, re: trying to talk the market down
Yup, there seems to be an unending procession of experts on Bloomberg today that know where the market is going.
Just bought back my May 17 strike covered calls for 8 cents. Good, I'm happy to hold the shares and wait for higher prices. Congrats on your success with short term timing.
Trying to sell some May 15 puts for 75 cents
My April puts expired. Good-til-canceled but price needs to get to about 15 soon for it to execute. Looks like it's not going to get there right away. Price bounced just as I put it in.
Sold some May17 covered calls for $.56
This is my first covered call sale since I started accumulating at around 20 in Jan 08. Since then, I have been selling at the money puts with the intention of accepting assignment. I now have 11 equal sized positions, and this is a possible sale of one of them, not a large portion of the total position. I'm selling the calls out of the money because I don't really want them to get called away in this price range, but we may be near a local top. Based on previous experience, my sales will help the stock to continue climbing. That is how good I am at short term timing.
Broker suggestions
Joey, Here is a site with a lot of opinions, if you're interested. ( My 2 cents)
http://www.elitetrader.com/br/index.cfm
Andy - In the money short options
My comment is that you don't have to worry much about getting exercised until it's far enough in the money for the time value to be insignificant, since the long option holder loses that when he exercises prematurely. Better to sell the option back and then buy the stock. But yes, ex-dividends also come into play.
Sold April 15 puts for 82 cents
Same old story. Still accumulating. My March 13s expired.
OT:
I have been following the posts but I have been busy having fun building an electric bicycle that works through my rear 8 gears. Gets about 50 miles per charge without pedaling if I'm satisfied with about 13 mph on the flats, and it's not too heavy to pedal on the flats. Unfortunately, I live on the side of a mountain. But it flattens out the hills nicely. Costs about 4 cents of electricity per charge, but about a quarter if I include the limited battery life. ( about 400mpg equivalent? )
Sold some Mar strike 13 puts for 98 cents.
I got assigned on my Feb 14s. I'm still accumulating and can't resist at this price. If it goes lower, I'll accumulate more. I'm not expecting a near term recovery. In fact, Bloomberg has a story that the credit freeze up hasn't gone away yet, although it isn't as bad as it was in the fourth quarter:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=avRdLtxSSUwk&refer=economy
Sarmad, a bit of good news
This morning, Bloomberg mentioned that the 3-month libor rate was finally coming down from the seized up fear levels that it has been at. Maybe all that money we have been injecting into the banks is finally having an effect.
Sold some Feb 14 puts for a buck
Couldn't resist. This is probably very bad for the stock price.
Intel cuts fourth-quarter revenue outlook (from Yahoo)
* Wednesday January 7, 2009, 9:13 am EST
(Reuters) - Intel Corp (NasdaqGS:INTC - News) on Wednesday cut its fourth-quarter revenue outlook.
Highlights:
* Q4 revenue fell 23 percent to $8.2 billion
* Says revenue will be lower than the company's previous expectation
* Cites further weakness in end demand and inventory reductions by its customers in the global PC supply chain
* Says will impair the value of its investment, resulting in a non-cash charge to Q4 earnings of about $950 million
* Says preliminary estimate of Q4 gross margin is at bottom of previous expectation of 55 percent, plus or minus a couple of points
* Says restructuring and asset impairment charges are expected to be approximately $250 million
* Reuters Estimates Q4 earnings per share view $0.21, revenue view $8,776.47 million
* Now sees loss from equity investments, interest and other to be loss of $1.1-$1.2 billion versus prior forecast of loss of about $50 million
* Says spending expected to be about $2.6 billion versus previous expectation of about $2.8 billion
Just saw this on Bloomberg. Ouch, not fun to be the bearer of bad news. Not unexpected though given the economy. I'm looking to sell more puts. The price has been too high, lol.
Sold some Dec 13 and 14 puts.
13's at 85 cents, 14's at $1.26. I guess I'm just a glutton for punishment, lol. If I get both assigned, it will be at a combined purchase price of $12.45. It's my duty to take them off their hands. Get ready for the big drop now that I just "bought".
Sold some more Nov 15 puts for $1.05
I took assignment on my previous sales. Been away for a bit working on my mechanical trading system. It's in monopoly money mode at the moment, so it's getting close to real. Intel moving down again right after I sell. . . typical.
Atom nano-ITX board at 10 Watts full power?
http://www.linuxdevices.com/news/NS3792717625.html
I'm looking at long term calls.
Intel will get damaged by a deep recession if it happens, but people and businesses aren't going to stop using computers. This selloff isn't justified by the fundamentals. If the price gets even more ridiculous, I won't be able to resist.
NYSE volume 3.8 Bil shares in first 2 hours
Wow. That's 12 Bil today if it holds up.
Just sold some Nov 15 puts for $1.60
This market is surreal. How low can we go? VIX just hit 70. I have been mostly in cash for a long time and it is finally getting put to use. May we live in interesting times.
PC unit shipments are forecast to grow 12.5% this year
http://www.semiconductor.net/article/CA6603948.html
iSuppli cuts chip forecast on 'warning signs' for market, 'DRAM drag'
At nearly a third of its earlier 2008 semiconductor revenue growth estimate, iSuppli drops its expectations to a 3.5% gain, blaming the suffering DRAM market and paralyzing economic conditions.
By Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News -- Electronic News, 10/9/2008
ISuppli Corp has become the second major chip industry research house to reduce its forecast for 2008 worldwide semiconductor revenue growth in as many weeks, warning of "significant potential downside" if economic conditions continue to worsen.
With the reduced forecast, iSuppli is now expecting growth at nearly two-thirds below its 2008 estimates made this time last year. According to iSuppli, global semiconductor industry revenue is expected to rise to $280.1 billion this year, up 3.5% from $270.6 billion in 2007. The analysis company's previous forecast, issued in August, predicted 4% growth for the year. Prior to that, iSuppli in December 2007 first warned of the then harshening economy's impact on its 2008 forecast. At that time, iSuppli expected 7.5% growth for the year, which was down from its September 2007 2008 growth prediction of 9.3%.
“The credit crisis is impacting the semiconductor market on several levels,” said Dale Ford, senior VP of market intelligence at iSuppli, in a statement this afternoon. “The first level is demand for electronic equipment from the Wall Street firms themselves, which is expected to drop and thus decrease demand for semiconductors. The second level, and a much more significant factor, is the impact on corporations in general. With companies unable to get credit, the crisis could spread to the wider economy, impacting demand for electronic equipment and semiconductors. The final level, and the most significant area of impact, is the broader effect on consumer confidence and spending if the overall economy collapses.”
ISuppli's data comes after IC Insights early last week said that semiconductor sales growth will realistically be between 1 and 5% in 2008 on 2007's total sales of $234.3 billion. IC Insights projected 7% growth in its mid-year forecast.
As IC Insights did, iSuppli put much of slowing growth's blame on the memory market. Noting that it has significantly downgraded its outlook for memory revenue, particularly DRAM, iSuppli reported that it has lowered its 2008 semiconductor memory revenue forecast by 5.8% and its DRAM outlook by 5.4%. "With memory expected to account for nearly 10% of global semiconductor revenue in 2008, this represents a major drag on global semiconductor revenue," iSuppli said.
Oversupply continues to plague the DRAM industry, shrinking ASPs (average selling prices) and suppliers' revenue. Following on a separate report iSuppli made last week about the credit crunch's direct impact on the DRAM market, the research company today said the DRAM industry began to note a weakening in demand from the key PC market in September. Cautiously optimistic, iSuppli said PC unit shipments are forecast to grow 12.5% this year and reported that they continued to defy the economic downturn through Q2.
Further helping its 2008 forecast, iSuppli has upped its estimates for global ASSP (application specific standard product) semiconductors. The company raised its 2008 ASSP revenue forecast by 3.2% for the year and noted that ASSPs represent a broad category of ICs that provide key functionality in all types of electronic equipment, from mobile-handset basebands to hard disk drive controllers.
PC Growth to help keep IC outlook above zero
Up 13.6% in 2008 and 12.3% in 2009:
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210800735
Gartner to cut IC outlook but don't panic
Mark LaPedus
EE Times
(10/09/2008 1:56 PM EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif.—How will the current financial crisis affect the semiconductor market?
It feels like a horrible climate right now, but it's not all doom-and-gloom. "You can't run on emotions only,' said Bryan Lewis, an analyst with Gartner Inc.
But during a presentation here Thursday (Oct. 9), Lewis dropped hints that Gartner could possibly reduce its IC forecast for 2008 and 2009. At present, Gartner projects that the IC market will grow 4.2 percent in 2008 and 7.8 percent in 2009.
Based on the current dynamics, including the financial situation, the IC market could grow only 2.5 percent in 2008 and 2 percent in 2009, Lewis said. More precisely, in its next forecast update, Gartner expects to reduce its 2009 IC growth forecast to between 2 and 4 percent.
There are mixed signals right now, which could spill over into 2009. 'Microeconomic conditions continue to worsen,' he said, but 'IT [has] held up amazingly well in the first half of 2008. PCs and cell phone unit growth will keep semiconductor growth positive for 2009.'
On the other hand, there are some concerns with IC inventories. 'OEM inventories are rising in wireless, auto and storage,' he said.
Gartner said Wednesday it expects semiconductor industry capital spending to decline 25.7 percent in 2008 and another 12.8 percent in 2009 before recovering to grow 16.7 percent in 2010.
Gartner is the latest market watcher to cuts its capital spending forecast amid a global economic slowdown.
Here's some other key data from Gartner:
# Memory growth is projected to fall about 15 percent in 2008 and will drop 17 percent in 2009.
# NAND, which is in an oversupply mode, is expected to reach a supply/demand balance by Q2 2009. The overall NAND market is projected to fall 10.1 percent in 2008, but it could drop by 15 percent this year. NAND is expected to rebound and grow 15.1 percent in 2009.
# The DRAM market is projected to fall 10.5 percent in 2008 but it could grow 25.1 percent in 2009.
# PC growth: Up 13.6 percent in 2008, but that could be adjusted downwards. Up 12.3 percent in 2009.
# Smart phone: Up 8.8 percent 2008, but that could be adjusted downward. Up 11.3 percent in 2009.
WiMax products debut in Baltimore
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210800492
http://www.baltimoresun.com/topic/sns-bc-sprint-wimax1stld-writethru,0,2743860.story
Rick Merritt
EE Times
(10/08/2008 1:19 PM EDT)
SAN JOSE, Calif. — Intel officially rolled out its WiMax silicon for notebooks, one of several new products discussed at an event marking the roll out of WiMax services in Baltimore. The PC chip giant has discussed for more than a year its plans to bring WiMax to notebooks, but to date the technology has been slow to gain traction in the U.S.
Intel is now shipping its WiMax/Wi-Fi Link 5050 Series, also known as Echo Peak, a combined module for the wireless technologies as an option for notebooks using its Intel Core 2 processors. Acer, Asus, Lenovo and Toshiba said they will support the module as an option in systems shipping this year. Dell, Panasonic, Samsung and Sony will support it in 2009.
At an event Wednesday (Oct. 8) in Baltimore, executives from Xohm, the WiMax division of Sprint Nextel, described other devices it will offer as part of rolling out its first WiMax services there.
Later this month, Xohm will start selling a WiMax version of the Nokia N810 Internet tablet, a widescreen smartphone that includes a keyboard. It will also provide a WiMax USB peripheral for notebooks from ZTE Corp (Shenzhen, China). In addition, Sprint Nextel said it will launch a dual-mode cellular and WiMax handset before the end of the year.
Sprint expects to complete by the end of the year its deal to sell Xohm to startup Clearwire which aims to deploy a nationwide WiMax network. Intel provided some financing for the deal as part of its efforts to establish WiMax as a conduit for mobile Internet traffic.
WiMax "will ultimately redefine where, when and how people enjoy that mobile experience" said Sean Maloney, executive vice president and chief sales and marketing officer of Intel in a prepared statement.
Xohm has said it aims to deploy WiMax next in Washington D.C. and Chicago.
According to a report from the Associated Press, Xohm is charging $45 a month for WiMax service to notebooks in Baltimore that can deliver download speeds up to 4 Mbits/second. The company charges about $60 for external WiMax cards and $80 for home devices.
Trying to sell some Nov 16 puts at $1.50
I missed out at the open due to inattention. Price probably needs to hit about $15.90 to execute. There aren't any Oct 16 strikes, shows how steep the drop has been. The good news is the rich option premiums due to the fear. I'm actually down for the year now (temporarily, lol). Do I hear a group "Boo-hoo"? Back later. Have to do an errand.
VIX just hit 56.
These are record historical levels (for the new VIX). It will be interesting to see how much higher the panic level can go. No one has jumped off of any high buildings yet. (Not trying to give anyone any ideas.)
I'm a few pennies away from selling some Oct puts at 17 strike.
UPDATE 1-Global chip sales rise 5.5 pct in August - SIA
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG21150920081002?rpc=44
Tom's Hardware: 2008 Updated CPU Charts
http://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/amd-intel-pc-processor,2031.html
"When it comes to desktop processors, the competitive situation between Intel and AMD has changed considerably. Unlike in the past, Intel is now ahead in just about every category. The Intel models are also generally more overclockable, which means it is possible to build a high-end system for a relatively low cost. AMD is having trouble keeping up with Intel’s upper echelon of performance-oriented solutions and its current processor models offered only minor overclocking potential up until recently, when the SB750 southbridge improved scalability on Black Edition Phenoms. Only a new method of manufacturing is likely to change this situation significantly, though."
S&P Ups Rating To Buy From Hold On Valuation
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/10/01/intel-sp-ups-rating-to-buy-from-hold-on-valuation/
Investment guys on Bloomberg: Bernanke has a plan B which includes a huge inflationary increase in the money supply to prop up banks in case plan A can't make it through congress.
Intel Chairman: We'll Invest Through Recession
"Intel Chairman Craig Barrett says his company will continue to invest in products and technologies even though it sees that a U.S. financial meltdown is likely to affect the emerging markets that are crucial for its growth."
http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Desktops-and-Notebooks/Intel-Chairman-Well-Invest-Through-Recession/