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But when your first alert came out it was barley off . This board is amazing for information
Already down 20% in aftermarket . Glad i sold the other day . The short vultures like Ben will be out in force next week
CCME sellers out of the way ?
Another push coming
Over 2 million volume a 17.50 or above close would draw a lot more attention
CCME makes Yahoos Rising on Unusual Volume list
nice exposure i usually scan this list looking for stocks with high volume that are just beginning to breakout
http://finance.yahoo.com/unusualvolume/rising
Rising on Unusual Volume
What does this mean?
Symb Name Last Trade Change Vol. % Change at Investors.com
RBN Robbins & Myers, Inc. Common St 40.75 3:06PM EST 5.22 (14.69%) 601% Stock Checkup
CIS Camelot Information Systems Ame 26.28 3:05PM EST 2.03 (8.37%) 201% Stock Checkup
CCME China MediaExpress Holdings, In 17.37 3:06PM EST 1.04 (6.37%) 83% Stock Checkup
If you ask me between biotech journalists and Wall Street biotech analysts you read the most idiotic statements
The news from Merck is a bit of a surprise since the company hadn't previously announced or confirmed that boceprevir had been filed with U.S. regulators.
If he did his homework he would know that the big guys like MRK never announce this kind of filing news
It's also a tad embarrassing for Vertex, which is still waiting to hear back from FDA about the acceptance of the approval filing for telaprevir, its competing hepatitis C drug.
2 weeks is meaningless in drug approval . Heck it could be 2 months before a single HMO approves one drug in tier 2 position
Merck's boceprevir, therefore, has a chance to grab bragging rights as the first, next-generation hepatitis C drug approved by FDA.]
Mrk does not care about bragging rights they care about profits
If both drugs are approved, boceprevir could be on the market by the second week of May, or approximately two to three weeks before Vertex has a chance to do the same with telaprevir.
He is paid for this.
But given Vertex's reputation for supreme confidence (some would say cockiness), the fact that slothy Big Pharma giant Merck has taken the early lead in the hepatitis C drug race is a surprising comeuppance.
Well at least halfway through the article he got something right
We believe this gap in timing could benefit Vertex as it will gain visibility on Merck's pricing of Boceprevir before announcing its own," said JMP Securities analyst Liisa Bayko in a note to clients Thursday morning
Dumb meets dumber . The real prcing war will be done in private with the Humanas of the world and they will play one against the other . Efficacy will come in second here price will win the day.
Where do they find these people
I need to follow you a little closer when i own something that you own . Your balls are so much bigger and they have a better trading compass than mine . Great trade .
I agree . Except for CCME CGPI and MLKNA i am about 65% cash now . I like raising cash after 30 to 50 % moves off the bottom . Ill gladly forgo some misses but we are way overdone on the bullishness.
My last post seemed harsh . I still think both drugs will do fine . Maybe Telep gets 60% but i do not think either will dominate . Many patients will still be without SVR . There is a huge group of Non responders that will not be SVR with either of these drugs.
but based on some data I have access to, physicians prefer telaprevir 5:1 to boceprevir
OMG
Give me a break a drug with no label . A company that to raise money every time they filled another test tube they had another press release . Merck did not announce the submission in November . Wall street geniuses assumed Vertex was way ahead . Do not hand me pre launch gibberish from some goofy Dr survey that have been primed from some lacky biotech company with no experience . Lets wait until the real world label comes out.
VRTXs market cap is over 7 billion . Better agents are right around the corner . I know Wall street thinks they could do 4 billion in 2 years . I think they are sadly mistaken . Insurance is a nightmare they are going to run all patients that they can run through with current SOC if that patient has to go 48 weeks at least a 12 week treatment to see if they are negative. Now for the groups that can be shortened to 24 or even 12 they will rapidly pay . Even the best case scenario of 4 billion subtract costs and look at the market cap of over 7 billion . I would rather buy a MNTA or 10 other Biotechs that do not have such a huge market cap and really a 2 to 3 year drug . Plus MRK is a ma mouth company that currently has the entire package to bargain with Peg Rib and Bocep. Although i do not like Mrks stock here . I would rather own Bristol with Mrks Singular coming off patent Bocep will not even make up half of that revenue .
Sorry . I thought you were biased because you owned it Thats usually the case .
Let me put it this way . I will wait until the labels come out and we see the managed care coverage and community acceptance. VRTX already has almost 2years of sales baked into its stock price . A few hundred cases of anal rash could derail it into a deep hole . The rash is rare but its a stopper for any Community GI . More will be revealed . VRTX is an over priced pig . Im sorry you own it.
The general consensus on Wall Street is that telaprevir has been more effective in clinical trials at curing hepatitis C, compared with the Merck drug, though they haven't been tested head-to-head in the same study.
But Merck's disclosure Thursday raises the possibility that boceprevir could gain an edge if it reaches the U.S. market first, assuming it's approved on an accelerated basis.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110106-710709.html
Good thing wall street is not approving the drugs they have been known to get a few things wrong imo . I believe both drugs will either get approval next May or the FDA will ask both compounds for more data. Both drugs will also get wide usage but the bulk of the initial treatments will be in the Hepatologists offices imo . Community GIs have wanted to treat less and less Hep C usually farming it out the PA ARNP or new guy in the office . The pay vs time ratio is horrible . These community guys cant even manage two drug side effects currently . They do not want to spend 40 minutes with a patient and get paid 20$ from Aetna when they can scope someone in the same period and get 500 to 2000 $ . What till one community GI has to manage the rash that patients have developed or the anemia .
Really i have not followed your recent comments on Tel VS Boc but you clearly have favored the data of Tel even though comparisons are apple oranges . Well see the labels and how the managed care coverage is .GLTY
I figured i would get that kind of response from you . You are so Vertex biased .
Merck Beats Vertex to FDA Hep C Filing
Adam Feuerstein
01/06/11 - 10:07 AM EST
WHITEHOUSE STATION, NJ (TheStreet) --In the race to market the first next-generation treatment for hepatitis C, Merck(MRK) is out to an early lead.
Or, as my kids would so delicately put it: "Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX), you just got burned!!!"
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration accepted Merck's approval filing for its hepatitis C drug boceprevir, the company said Thursday. The news from Merck is a bit of a surprise since the company hadn't previously announced or confirmed that boceprevir had been filed with U.S. regulators.
It's also a tad embarrassing for Vertex, which is still waiting to hear back from FDA about the acceptance of the approval filing for telaprevir, its competing hepatitis C drug. That news should come by Jan. 24, based on Vertex's previous announcement that it filed the drug's application on Nov. 23.
Still, it seems as if Merck beat Vertex to the FDA by at least two weeks.
Merck's boceprevir, therefore, has a chance to grab bragging rights as the first, next-generation hepatitis C drug approved by FDA.
If both drugs are approved, boceprevir could be on the market by the second week of May, or approximately two to three weeks before Vertex has a chance to do the same with telaprevir.
In the grand scheme of things, a two-week head start is trivial. But given Vertex's reputation for supreme confidence (some would say cockiness), the fact that slothy Big Pharma giant Merck has taken the early lead in the hepatitis C drug race is a surprising comeuppance.
Vertex shares were down 19 cents to $36.68 in early Thursday trading.
A Merck spokesman would not confirm the exact FDA filing date for boceprevir. A Vertex spokesman said, "We expect to hear from the FDA this month regarding our request for priority review."
Cheer up, Vertex. The race to approval for a new hepatitis C drug is really just the starting point. What really matters is how each drug fares in the commercial market. Merck's early lead now may not matter much once doctors and patients have a choice of which drug to use.
"We believe this gap in timing could benefit Vertex as it will gain visibility on Merck's pricing of Boceprevir before announcing its own," said JMP Securities analyst Liisa Bayko in a note to clients Thursday morning. "Moreover, the three-week lead time in the marketplace is unlikely to translate into much of a competitive advantage as we believe Telaprevir's compound has a stronger profile with superior efficacy and a differentiated safety profile."
--Written by Adam Feuerstein in Boston.
>To contact the writer of this article, click here: Adam Feuerstein.
>To follow the writer on Twitter, go to http://twitter.com/adamfeuerstein.
>To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10965215/1/merck-beats-vertex-to-fda-hep-c-filing.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
China Armco Metals' Recycling Facility Returns to Full Time Operations With Ending of Government Restrictions
Press Release Source: China Armco Metals, Inc. On Thursday January 6, 2011, 7:00 am
SAN MATEO, CA--(Marketwire - 01/06/11) - January 6th - China Armco Metals, Inc. (AMEX:CNAM - News) ("China Armco" or the "Company"), a distributor of imported metal ore and metal recycler with a new state-of-the-art scrap metal recycling facility in China, today announced it has received confirmation that local government imposed power restrictions for energy intensive industries and steel producers will be lifted in January 2011. With the announcement, the Company's scrap metal recycling business can return to full operations.
The central government imposed energy restrictions in at least 18 provinces beginning in September 2010 in an effort to meet the energy consumption and emissions targets set by the National 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010), which significantly impacted output in the steel industry and the operations at China Armco.
"We are pleased to receive news that the power rationing will be phased out," said Mr.Kexuan Yao, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "These restrictions temporarily affected our operations in the third and fourth quarters of 2010, and we are encouraged to be operating on a full time basis. We will now be able to rapidly accelerate our growth in this area of great potential."
China consumes over 500 million tons of steel annually and is the largest in the world. 100 million tons of scrap steel are utilized in this production per year and currently Chinese producers only meet 60% of this demand annually. The Company's recycling operations, which can process up to one million tons of metal scrap per year, is expected to contribute substantially to the company's revenues.
About China Armco Metals, Inc.
China Armco Metals, Inc. is engaged in the sale and distribution of metal ore and non-ferrous metals throughout the PRC and is in the recycling business with the recent launch of operations of a metal recycling facility capable of producing up to approximately one million tons per year located on 32 acres of land. China Armco maintains customers throughout China which includes the fastest growing steel producing mills and foundries in the PRC. Raw materials are acquired from a global group of suppliers located diverse countries, including, but not limited to, India, Hong Kong, Nigeria, Brazil, Turkey and the Philippines. China Armco's product lines include ferrous and non-ferrous ore, iron ore, chrome ore, nickel ore, magnesium, copper ore, manganese ore and steel billet. The recycling facility is expected to be capable of recycling one million metric tons of scrap metal per year which will position the Company as one of the 10 largest recyclers of scrap metal in China. China Armco estimates the recycled metal market in China as 70 million metric tons. For more information about China Armco, please visit http://www.armcometals.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
In connection with the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, China Armco Metals, Inc., is hereby providing cautionary statements identifying important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements (as defined in such act). Any statements that are not historical facts and that express, or involve discussions as to, expectations, beliefs, plans, objectives, assumptions or future events or performance (often, but not always, indicated through the use of words or phrases such as "will likely result," "are expected to," "will continue," "is anticipated," "estimated," "intends," "plans," "believes" and "projects") may be forward-looking and may involve estimates and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. These statements include, but are not limited to, our expectations regarding our revenues and production related to our scrap metal recycling operations and the extent of government imposed energy restrictions and resulting blackouts and impact on our recycling operations.
In addition, any such statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to, and are accompanied by, the following key factors that have a direct bearing on our results of operations:
We caution that the factors described herein could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements we make and that investors should not place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances. New factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all of such factors. Further, we cannot assess the impact of each such factor on our results of operations or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. This press release is qualified in its entirety by the following, including, but not limited to, any expectations with respect to the Company's revenues and operations, institution of governmental regulations relating to our businesses and the international economic climate, and the cautionary statements and risk factor disclosure contained in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2010.
U.S. to Police OTCBB IPOs, Reverse Mergers for Chinese Stocks: It's About Time
http://seekingalpha.com/article/245138-u-s-to-police-otcbb-ipos-reverse-mergers-for-chinese-stocks-it-s-about-time
In my experience, there is one catastrophic risk for a successful private company in China. Not inflation, or competition, or government meddling. It’s the risk of doing a bad capital markets deal in the US, particularly a reverse merger or OTCBB listing. At last count, over 600 Chinese companies have leapt off these cliffs, and few have survived, let alone prospered. Not so, of course, the army of advisors, lawyers and auditors who often profit obscenely from arranging these transactions.
Not before time, the US Congress and SEC are both now finally investigating these transactions and the harm they have done to Chinese companies as well as stock market investors in the US. Here is a Chinese language column I wrote on this subject for Forbes China: click here to read.
As an American, I’m often angry and always embarrassed that the capital market in my homeland has been such an inhospitable place for so many good Chinese companies. In fact, my original reason for starting China First Capital over two years ago was to help a Jiangxi entrepreneur raise PE finance to expand his business, rather than doing a planned “Form 10” OTCBB.
We raised the money, and his company has since quadrupled in size. The founder is now planning an IPO in Hong Kong later this year, underwritten by the world’s preeminent global investment bank. The likely IPO valuation: at least 10 times higher than what was promised to him from that OTCBB IPO, which was to be sponsored by a “microcap” broker with a dubious record from earlier Chinese OTCBB deals.
In general, the only American companies that do OTCBB IPOs are the weakest businesses, often with no revenues or profits. When a good Chinese company has an OTCBB IPO, its choice of using that process will always cast large and ineradicable doubts in the mind of US investors. The suspicion is, any Chinese entrepreneur who chooses a reverse merger or OTCBB IPO either has flawed business judgment or plans to defraud his investors. This is why so many of the Chinese companies quoted on the OTCBB companies have microscopic p/e multiples, sometimes less than 1X current year’s earnings.
The US government is finally beginning to evaluate the damage caused by this “mincing machine” that takes Chinese SME and arranges their OTCBB or reverse mergers. According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “The US Securities and Exchange Commission has begun a crackdown on “reverse takeover” market for Chinese companies. Specifically, the SEC’s enforcement and corporation-finance divisions have begun a wide-scale investigation into how networks of accountants, lawyers, and bankers have helped bring scores of Chinese companies onto the U.S. stock markets.”
In addition, the US Congress is considering holding hearings. Their main goal is to protect US investors, since several Chinese companies that listed on OTCBB were later found to have fraudulent accounting.
But, if the SEC and Congress does act, the biggest beneficiaries may be Chinese companies. The US government may make it harder for Chinese companies to do OTCBB IPO and reverse mergers. If so, then these Chinese firms will need to follow a more reliable, tried-and-true path to IPO, including a domestic IPO with CSRC approval.
The advisors who promote OTCBB IPO and reverse mergers always say it is the fastest, easiest way to become a publicly-traded company. They are right. These methods are certainly fast and because of the current lack of US regulation, very easy. Indeed, there is no faster way to turn a good Chinese company into a failed publicly-traded than through an OTCBB IPO or reverse merger
China Stocks to Rally, Buy on `Lousy Friday Selloffs,' JPMorgan Asset Say
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/buy-chinese-stocks-on-inflation-policy-noise-jpmorgan-asset-s-wang-says.html
China’s stocks, the worst-performing among major global equity markets last year, will rise this year and investors should buy when faster inflation triggers rumors of further tightening measures, JPMorgan Asset Management said.
Valuations for some Chinese shares, such as those of developers, “look extremely cheap,” said Howard Wang, head of the Greater China team at the JPMorgan unit, which oversees more than $1.3 trillion of global assets. Shares in the property industry group on the Shanghai Composite Index trade at an average 13 times estimated earnings, compared with 16.4 times on the Hang Seng Property Index and 21.5 times for companies on the MSCI World/Real Estate Index.
“The good news is that China was an absolute dog last year, so expectations are set particularly low,” Wang said at a media briefing in Hong Kong yesterday. “We expect MSCI China and H shares to get positive returns this year.”
The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s two stock exchanges, dropped 14 percent last year, the worst performer among the 14 biggest world benchmark indexes, as the government stepped up its fight against inflation. Banks’ reserve ratio requirements were increased six times in 2010 and interest rates were raised twice as price gains accelerated to 5.1 percent in November, a 28-month high.
‘Lousy Friday Selloffs’
“When noise is at its highest we’d want to invest on those days, those lousy Friday selloffs,” Wang said, referring to speculation of policy measures that precedes official data releases. “We’ll wait for that day when rumors go around about CPI reaching 6.5 percent, and we’ll go buy that day. That’s how we operate on a conceptual basis -- buy when there’s bad news on inflation.”
China’s December home prices rose the most in at least six months, SouFun Holdings Ltd., the nation’s biggest real estate- website owner, said Jan. 4.
“There are always big opportunities in China’s property space,” Wang said. “Overseas investors love buying Chinese properties. They always look for excuses to buy.”
Wang said he expects to see “considerable” gains in inflation in the second quarter, with China’s consumer price index increasing at a rate of about 5 percent to 6 percent.
Wang said he also favors China’s consumer, alternative- energy and health-care industries.
Valuation of stocks traded on the Shanghai gauge was at 13.5 times estimated profit at the close of trade yesterday. Those of the MSCI China Index traded at 12.2 times while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of so-called H shares of Chinese companies traded at 11.2 times.
To contact the reporter on this story: Hanny Wan in Hong Kong at hwan3@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Nick Gentle at ngentle2@bloomberg.net
Even T3 Live have found their way into CCME.
( They are very successful traders )
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/4786461
Hello all, I just wanted to let you know I want to begin giving an intraday trading update each day, letting people know what I have been doing, how I see the market, and something important to take note of that day. Here is my first entry. Please feel free to provide any feedback.
I came in long a little Las Vegas Sands Corp (LVS: 48.05, 0.32), PotashCorp. of Saskatchewan (POT: 161.64, 4.99) and China MediaExpress Holdings (CCME: 16.57, -0.23) this morning. The S&P futures gapped down 8 handles early, then with the ADP numbers the premarket deficit was cut cut in half. I had a nice overnight trade in PotashCorp off of The Mosaic Company (MOS: 77.13, 2.13) earnings. I came in up a little bit, but was hoping for a lot more. So far on this day, it's a tough grind. I'm currently red on the day, hopeful that there will be a move for me to capitalize on.
China Shen Zhou Minin & Resources (SHZ: 10.2, 0.38) looked great for a while, then got hit from the highs back to ~$10. So I lost a little on that one. My best trade was SHZ long early, but because I gave back some I am going to sit back and watch to see what these things want to do. Molycorp, Inc. (MCP: 60.67, -1.13) is in a tough range, but rallied $2 off the open, so there was a decent trade in there. I did not catch that one.
Overall the rare earths are a bit stagnant today, nice moves off the open and then nothing for a while. The lesson for today is, "Don't overtrade!" If you don't see anything, don't do anything. If you made money, keep it. I will see what the afternoon brings.
T3 Live was created by a group of experienced professional traders who have been consistent and profitable in all different markets. In addition to classroom lectures and interactive meetings, subscribers get the chance to trade alongside real Wall Street professionals. Traders with large reputations on the Street like Marc Sperling and Scott Redler broadcast their actual trades and make themselves available for questions and coaching throughout the trading day. All trades are fully transparent and available in real-time.
What China wants in exchange for spending big in Europe
Chinese Vice Prime Minister Li Keqiang is offering Chinese investment to a struggling Europe. In exchange, China wants improved trade ties with Europe.
China's deputy premier Li Keqiang waves to the press before meeting Spain's King Juan Carlos at the Zarzuela Palace on the outskirts of Madrid Wednesday Jan. 5. Spain says it hopes to sign several important business accords during Li Keqiang's three-day visit to Spain.
(Paul White/AP)
By Andrés Cala, Correspondent
posted January 5, 2011 at 4:49 pm EST
Madrid —
Chinese Vice Prime Minister Li Keqiang is touring Europe, offering political support, cash, and investment at a critical juncture for the weakened European Union. However, there appear to be strings attached.
While Mr. Li's visit saw the formalization of 16 business agreements with Spain worth $7.5 billion, mostly in the private industry, he has indicated that China is also looking for better trade ties with its new European business partners.
“We hope that the EU will relax restrictions on high-tech exports to China … and develop trade relations that are balanced and sustainable," Li wrote in an Op-Ed titled “China will be more open to the world” that was published Wednesday in the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
RELATED: European debt crisis 101
The message is clear, say analysts. Armed with foreign reserves of $2.7 trillion, China is offering its financial muscle to rescue a struggling Europe in exchange for technology and open borders.
“China has become the world’s fireman from a financial point of view. It operates the same way everywhere, and high tech is to Europe what commodities are to Africa,” says José Ignacio Torreblanca, senior fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “And Europe doesn’t have a choice but to accept this.”
China’s good will is tied to political concessions, although not explicitly.
Speaking to business leaders in Madrid, Li said China would “stand by Spain is happiness and sad times,” that it would continue buying sovereign bonds, (depending on market conditions) and that it wanted deeper economic ties.
From Germany, China wants more openness for its expanding companies and more technological exchanges. From Europe as a whole, to which Li offered a new era in relations, China wants improved economic ties.
“It’s understandable that China has linked its support to progress in closer relation with the EU, lifting of restrictions, and improved potential to exchange high tech. That is still an issue for China and there are some expectations that further progress can be made there as a quid pro quo,” says Vanessa Rossi, senior research fellow on international economics and an expert on Chinese global economic expansion in London-based Chatham House.
Some are wary of the latest overture from China, which many European countries still don't trust. The EU’s top diplomat, Catherine Ashton, has tried to bridge internal difference. Consensus is still distant, however, especially in regards to an embargo on selling arms to China that Spain and France have lobbied to relax. Washington still strongly opposes relaxing an arms embargo and is also concerned about technological transfers.
For China, however, the juncture is ideal. Struggling European countries that have dragged down the euro and rattled markets are desperate for cash in the form of direct foreign investment. Not surprisingly, Greece, Portugal, and Spain have sought closer relations to Beijing in the aftermath of the economic crisis, and Chinese investment in those countries has soared.
“But it doesn’t make much sense for countries like Spain to embark on building closer bilateral relations at the expense of an EU-wide policy,” says Mr. Torreblanca.
Not everyone agrees with this sentiment. “We should be very happy to have Chinese investment and not look suspiciously at it, as it happened two years ago. That type of concern has disappeared,” says Ms. Rossi.
Regardless of the debate, countries like Spain are happy to respond to Chinese overtures, especially when they translate into billions in cash. In addition to four bilateral economic and political agreements, deals and contracts were signed in the financial, energy, infrastructure, tourism, service, and food sectors.
Most of the investment comes from a $7.1 billion deal between Chinese’s energy giant Sinopec and Spain’s Repsol for a 40 percent stake in the latter’s Brazil oil production operations.
Mr. Li also endorsed Spain’s plan to attract 300,000 Chinese tourists a year by 2012 and 1 million by 2020 – up from 100,000 tourists a year. A Spanish company will install air traffic control system in two Chinese region and another will sell two power generators. A Chinese company bought a Spanish boiler industry, several wine and olive oil exporting deals were signed, and there was even room to include a deal to export Spain’s famed cured Ibérico ham.
In Spain, a country with an unemployment rate of 20 percent, China’s bond-buying and deal-signing worth $7.5 billion translate into lower borrowing costs and more jobs for Spaniards.
RELATED: European debt crisis 101
Global Food-Price Index Hits Record
WSJ
By ALEX MACDONALD
LONDON—Global food prices hit a record high in December and are likely to continue rising in the year ahead due to inclement weather, raising the possibility of a repeat of civil unrest that erupted in emerging nations when prices last surged.
"The longer [food prices] remain high, the longer there is a possibility of a repeat of 2007 and 2008" food riots, said Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, in an interview Wednesday.
Global food prices rose 4.3% in December from the previous month, according to the FAO's monthly food-price index published Wednesday.
The index—which monitors the monthly change in a basket of commodities including meat, dairy, cereals, oils and sugar—rose for the sixth month in a row to 214.7. That is a record in nominal terms, according to data going as far back as 1990.
The food-price surge was largely driven by significant monthly price increases in oilseeds, cereals and sugar; white-sugar prices recently hit 30-year highs. The indexes for those food groups rose 8.1%, 6.4%, and 6.7% respectively in December compared with November.
Food prices have jumped because poor weather conditions across the globe have significantly curtailed crop harvests.
Russia, for instance, banned grain exports over the summer because of one of its worst droughts on record, while severe flooding in Australia has crimped the country's raw-sugar output by 20%.
The FAO's food-price index previously surged to a record high of 213.5 in June 2008 when poor harvests around the world and rising commodity prices, particularly oil, made food more expensive. Riots broke out in developing countries that struggled to pay higher prices to import food.
Broader inflation also rose due to higher food prices and could rise again this time.
In December, euro-zone inflation jumped past the European Central Bank's 2% target rate for the first time in more than two years, according to data released this week. Annual inflation across the euro zone was 2.2% in December, up from 1.9% in November and the highest since October 2008.
The European Union's statistics office didn't provide a product breakdown, but economists said the rise was likely due to higher food and energy prices.
Mr. Abbassian said food riots are unlikely to happen for the moment, partly because poorer countries have on average had better crops this year than in 2007-08 when prices last spiked.
Mr. Abbassian also said that prices for important staple foods such as cereals and rice are still below their record highs. Rice is priced at half its high two years ago while cereals are trading 13% below their high, he added.
Nevertheless, he said, poorer countries will at some point have to tap the international markets for foodstuffs. "That is the worrisome development...We consider the [current] prices quite punitive for the poorer countries," he said.
Mr. Abbassian said there is more likelihood that prices will rise in 2011 than fall due to poor weather. Any potential price correction is therefore unlikely to happen before the middle of the summer when the next harvests are due to begin.
Write to Alex MacDonald at alex.macdonald@dowjones.com
Unfortunately i sold out . I cant look a gift 1 day 10% profit on a non core holding in the mouth. I look for anywhere from 5% to 10 % on a trade .I may leave some on the table but i have been burned too many times . I bought it for a trade . GLTY if you are still holding she may have some steam . I have sold a lot of my trading positions and am only holding CCME and CGPI right now along with MLKNA . I am hoping to get some situation that causes an Angel to sell off . I wish i would have added more CCME on the selloff this AM . I really wish Herb would knock down an Angel for me its been too quiet.
Dave Gentry's appearance on CNBC's "The Strategy Session" moved to next week, Tuesday 1-11-11
I only got this alert . I have no other information . Maybe him and Bill Z are using the same planner
OT
Private sector adds 297,000 jobs in December: ADP ( better indicator than Govt #s imo )
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Private employers added 297,000 jobs in December, the biggest increase since at least 2001, compared with a revised gain of 92,000 in November, a private report showed on Wednesday.
The median estimate from 27 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report was for a rise of 100,000 private-sector jobs in December.
The November figure was originally reported as a gain of 93,000.
U.S. stock index futures pared losses after the data, while U.S. Treasury prices fell, and the dollar extended gains against the yen and euro.
"We've been building toward a big number ... That's pointing to a big payroll number ahead, and I think we'll get a big healthy report on Friday," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.
The ADP figures came ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labor market report coming on Friday, which will include both public and private sector employment.
That report is expected to show a rise in overall nonfarm payrolls of 140,000 in December, based on a Reuters poll of analysts, but a rise in private payrolls of 145,000.
Economists often use the ADP report to fine-tune their forecasts for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.
The ADP report is jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.
(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch, additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; editing by Jeffrey Benkoe
This is why this whole documents not matching is so overblown . Chinas cultural differences do not equate to fraud in most instances
China's households hide as much as $1.4 trillion (9.3 trillion yuan) of income that is not reported in official figures, with 80% accrued by the country's wealthiest people, Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: AG) said in a recent report.
The average urban disposable household income in China is $4,866 (32,154 yuan) a year, or 90% more than official figures, according to the report. The top 10% of China's households take in $21,035 (139,000 yuan) a year, more than triple the official figures.
2011 China Outlook: The Red Dragon Takes Its Next Step Forward
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244933-2011-china-outlook-the-red-dragon-takes-its-next-step-forward
by Jason Simpkins
If the United States has a growth problem, China has just the opposite. The world's second-largest economy is set to grow 9-10% this year, building on its strong rebound from the global financial crisis.
Furthermore, Beijing is determined to accelerate China's transition toward a more domestically based economy, while stabilizing prices and cutting government waste.
So in addition to strong growth numbers, investors can expect more disciplined and responsible economic development.
"Coming from this very strong growth that we have seen recently, China should be able to ease gently into a more sustainable rate of growth in 2011 and the medium term," said Louis Kuijis, senior economist and the main author of the World Bank's China Quarterly Update.
The World Bank in November raised its forecast for China's 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 10%. According to World Bank estimates, China's economy grew by 10.6% in the first six months of 2010 and logged a "still surprisingly strong" 9.6% third-quarter expansion.
The World Bank expects China's growth will slow to 8.7% in 2011, but Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald thinks that estimate is too conservative.
"I think we're more likely to see 9-10% growth next year," said Fitz-Gerald. "It may be even closer to 12%."
Money Morning Outlook 2011 Sharply focused government policies and a rapidly emerging middle class will continue to drive economic growth in China. However, another major catalyst will be the so-called "gray market," which consists of cash that the government has not accounted for.
"The gray market simply means cash that's outside the system," said Fitz-Gerald, who claims there are "thousands" of ways to hide cash from the government in China.
China's households hide as much as $1.4 trillion (9.3 trillion yuan) of income that is not reported in official figures, with 80% accrued by the country's wealthiest people, Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE: AG) said in a recent report.
The average urban disposable household income in China is $4,866 (32,154 yuan) a year, or 90% more than official figures, according to the report. The top 10% of China's households take in $21,035 (139,000 yuan) a year, more than triple the official figures.
"If these numbers are correct, it means that China's GDP is understated – as is the income generation over there," said Fitz-Gerald.
According to Fitz-Gerald the scope of China's gray market shows that many Westerners have misjudged the progress the country has made transitioning to a more domestically based economy.
Westerners also have underestimated the effectiveness of government programs, such as the 50-year "Go West" campaign to balance growth from the seaboard to the inner provinces, says Fitz-Gerald.
"The two biggest misconceptions that Westerners have about China are that it's solely dependent on exports and manufacturing, and that the fact that they're communist will somehow interfere with capitalist development," he said. "If anything Chinese style communism has proven remarkably stable."
Price Punch
Indeed, China's biggest problem is not generating growth, but ensuring that it is balanced and stable. To that end, containing inflation and spurring consumption will be Beijing's main focus heading into the New Year.
Inflation in China hit a 28-month high of 5.1% in November, drawing the attention of officials worried about food prices. Food prices have a one-third weighting in the calculation of China's consumer price index (CPI), and an 11.7% rise in food prices contributed to 74% of the CPI growth in November.
Figures from southern Beijing's Xinfadi market, northern China's largest agricultural produce distribution center, indicated the weighted average price of vegetables at the market for the first 10 months of 2010 rose 20% to 30% from last year's level, according to Xinhua, China's state-run news agency.
China International Capital Corp. (CICC) believes consumer prices ebbed in December rising by just 4.5%. However, Bank of America Corp.'s (NYSE: BAC) Merrill Lynch unit forecasts a 4.8% increase in December prices, and Credit Suisse on Monday said that prices could exceed 6% by midyear, following "a brief pause over the next two to three months."
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has been especially vocal of late.
"I can tell everybody, the government has complete confidence in tiding over this difficult stage," Wen said in a recent radio address.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets on Christmas Day by raising its one-year refinancing rate — the interest rate it charges when lending to banks – by 52 basis points to 3.85% and increasing the benchmark deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.
A Reuters poll showed investors see the benchmark one-year deposit rate rising to 3.25% by the end of 2011.
The PBOC also has increased reserve requirements for banks and allowed the yuan to gain against the dollar.
"The government appears to have given a signal that it will use both interest rates and the exchange rate to fight inflation, including imported inflation," a senior trader at a Chinese commercial bank in Shenzhen told the Economic Times. "The yuan's rise will still be measured, possibly slightly more than 5% in 2011, while politics have an intermittent impact."
An informal poll of China-based dealers over the last week showed many of them expect the yuan to gain roughly 6% percent in 2011, hitting 6.25 per dollar late next year.
The yuan yesterday (Tuesday) hit an 18-year high against the U.S. dollar, as the greenback sank to 6.6251 yuan.
The currency may gain even more this month, as Chinese President Hu Jintao is set visit to the United States in mid-January. China often lets the yuan appreciate slightly ahead of major political events and to calm tensions before visits.
It's likely that China's monetary tightening in 2011 will take place mainly in the first half of the year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).
Rebalancing Act
In addition to stabilizing prices and containing inflation, China will continue its transition to a more domestically driven economy.
People too often think of China as the world's manufacturing floor. The reality is that China is working diligently to rebalance its economy with a greater focus on the service sector. By raising rates and squashing inflation Beijing also is attempting to keep the manufacturing sector from overheating.
And it's working.
China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 53.9 in December from 55.2 the previous month, which is perfectly fine with policymakers who are hoping to curb inflation and rebalance growth.
"A slower but still robust pace of manufacturing expansion is welcome because overheating is a risk policy makers want to avoid," Shen Jianguang, a Hong Kong- based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. who has worked for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told Bloomberg. "Another rate hike could come as soon as this month."
But while manufacturing is slowing down, China's service sector is heating up. China's PMI for the non-manufacturing sector rose to 56.5 in December, from 55.2 in November.
"On one hand, the rebound (in non-manufacturing PMI) was caused by large investment in the service sector," Li Xunlei, chief economist with Guotai Junan Securities, told The People's Daily. "On the other hand, it was influenced by government policies encouraging the service sector."
The service sector accounted for 42.6% of China's GDP in 2009 – a 0.8% increase from the year prior, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. That compares to more than 70% in the United States, but is still a long way from less than 20% in 1990.
China's service exports now rank fifth in the world. The latest statistics from the Ministry of Commerce show China's service trade rose 17% last year.
From 2005 to 2009, the total volume of China's service trade rose to $287 billion from $157.1 billion. But service exports surged 31.7% to $166 billion in just the first half of 2010.
Chinese authorities will lean heavily on the country's service sector to create jobs, as monetary tightening and a rising yuan squeeze manufacturers.
"The [service] sector can be very employment-intensive and it's domestically based," Paul Heytens, Asian Development Bank (ADB) country director for China, told China Daily in an interview. "We see it has enormous potential in the future and it should be developed further as part of China's efforts to move its driver of economic growth away from export-oriented industries to domestic sources."
China rarely reports official labor statistics, but the urban unemployment rate stood at 4.1% at the end of September, with 9.05 million urbanites registered as unemployed, according to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. The rate dropped from 4.2% at the end of the second quarter and 4.3% at the end of 2009.
In the first nine months of 2010, China created 9.31 million new jobs in urban areas, exceeding the annual target of 9 million for 2010.
Furthermore a survey released last month by employment firm Manpower Inc. (MAN) found that Chinese employers felt the fourth quarter of 2010 would be the most dynamic labor market since the survey began in 2005. Some 53% of employers expected to increase staffing levels, while 2% forecast a decrease in hiring and 32% predicted no change.
The outlook for the services sector was one of the brightest, with a net employment outlook of +54%. That trailed only Finance, Insurance and Real Estate, which had a +55% rating. Of the 36 countries surveyed by Manpower, China had the most optimistic employment outlook.
In addition to more hiring, employers also are paying higher wages. Every province and municipality in China experienced a rise in its minimum wage last year, with increases ranging from 12% to Beijing's 21%.
With an employment picture that's very different than the one we're seeing in the United States, Money Morning's Fitz-Gerald says China has clearly hit its stride in a system that is both successful and unique to its strengths.
"We think we wrote the book on capitalism," he said, "but the reality is China has had the world's largest GDP 18 of the last 20 centuries – so communist or not, they're simply resuming their place in the world order based on their population and its aggregate purchasing power. This is not going to continue in a straight line but over all the trend is very clearly up."
Investing in China
When it comes to investing in China, there are plenty of options.
One way to go is to invest in the country's fast-growing auto sector. After supplanting the United States as the world's largest auto market in 2009, China's vehicle sales surged 30.45% in the first half of 2010 to 7.18 million units. That compares to 5.6 million for the United States.
And analysts believe that gap will only grow from here on out.
Fatih Birol, chief economist for the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that today 700 out of every 1,000 people in the United States and 500 out of every 1,000 people in Europe own cars. But in China, only 30 out of 1,000 people own cars. And Birol thinks that figure could jump to 240 out of every 1,000 by 2035.
China's automobile market is expected to grow by 15% in 2011, according to General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) China President Kevin Wale. GM and its joint ventures increased vehicle sales in China by 33% over a year ago to 2.2 million vehicles in the first 11 months of this year, the company reported earlier this month.
Auto sales in China could even hit 20 million in 2011, according to data compiled by Booz & Co.
"China's auto market is the largest in the world and it's the fastest growing," said Fitz-Gerald. "That's why I like China Yuchai."
China Yuchai International Ltd. (NYSE: CYD) is engaged in the manufacturing and sale of diesel engines, which are mainly distributed in China.
"CYD benefits from three uniquely Chinese trends: rising consumer purchasing power, the Chinese infrastructure build out, and the development of transportation within China to move people, goods, and services around the nation," said Fitz-Gerald.
Investors might also consider an exchange-traded fund, or basket of Chinese stocks. Two such funds are the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund (NYSE: CAF) and the iShares FTSE Xinhua 25 Index (NYSE: FXI).
The FTSE Xinhua 25 Index ETF seeks to mirror the price and yield performance of the underlying index, which tracks 25 of China's largest and most liquid companies. At least 90% of the fund's $8.1 billion in assets is invested in either the actual Chinese shares or depositary receipts representing those securities.
However, Fitz-Gerald prefers the Morgan Stanley China A Shares Fund.
"I particularly like CAF because one of the things the gray market economy makes very clear is that small business ventures will be amply rewarded and most of those companies are traded only in China A shares," he said. "And CAF is the only fund that gives U.S. investors ‘direct access' to the A-shares."
It's also one of the best ways to profit from China's shifting growth model. A recent portfolio allocation of the fund showed 28% of its holdings were in consumer goods and services, 26% were in financials and 18% were in basic materials.
CAF also holds shares in companies that make auto components and beverages, among other products, and has numerous stocks in the metals and mining sectors.
http://redchipsblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/dave-gentrys-appearance-on-cnbcs.html
Thats all i have . Maybe he changes it again but nothing since this post
Aerl I do not understand why they are selling down instead of up ?
I might add when Robert Hsu says sell after all his pigeons sell then is a good time to buy
I picked up JGBO yesterday at 5.5 . I am considering selling it for a quick flip but after reading i may hold for a bigger run.
PLX
Protalix BioTherapeutics Announces Presentation of PRX-105 Data at the BARDA Industry Day PR Newswire Tue 8:00AM EST
China Unveils New Rules Against Price Collusion
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704723104576061160620783364.html?mod=rss_about_china
Sinovel Wind's Shanghai IPO to Raise Up to $1.4 Billion
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704723104576061143681918146.html?mod=rss_about_china
This board keeps getting better and better
I am keeping some cash just in case .We had an excellent finish to last year and good start to this year . Here is a well written article about the upcoming China pmi . With the run off the bottom ahead fake potential like this could give some of us a better buying opportunity in the future.
Eye on China's December 2010 PMIs: Beware of Seasonality
http://seekingalpha.com/article/244688-eye-on-china-s-december-2010-pmis-beware-of-seasonality
China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in December from 55.2 in the previous month, according to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The decline can largely be ascribed to a moderation in the output index to 57.5 from 58.5 in November and a drop in the new orders index to 55.4 from 58.3. The trend is echoed by Markit’s release of the HSBC Purchasing Managers Index for China for December that saw the index falling to a three-month low of 54.4 in December from 55.3 in November.
Although input prices rose significantly in December with the input price index at 66.7, the rate of input cost inflation moderated markedly from November’s reading of 73.5
In contrast to new orders the New Export Orders Index came in higher at 53.5 in December compared to November’s 53.2 – an indication that domestic demand eased substantially. Another indication of slower domestic demand is that manufactured imports are barely growing, with the imports index softening to 50.4 compared to 50.6 in November.
Contrary to what many commentators are suggesting, I am not convinced that the drop is entirely be due to the fact that the monetary tightening measures introduced by the PBoC in recent months have started to impact negatively on the economy. Based on seasonal factors, I expected the manufacturing PMI to come in somewhat lower in DecemberYes, you may ask, what about the PMIs for January and February? From a seasonal point of view, what happened in January and February 2010 was contra to the average from 2005 to 2007.
My analysis indicates that the timing of the Chinese Spring Festival which includes the Chinese New Year with the so-called Golden Week (official holidays) has a major bearing on the Manufacturing PMI for that month. Please bear in mind that the planning for the festivities are preceded by preparations and the festivities last 15 days in total. In 2006 when the Golden Week was at the end of January, January’s PMI came in virtually flat from the previous month (December 2005) and shot up in February. When the Golden Week was in the second half of February in 2007 the PMI dropped significantly from the previous month (January 2007) and rose substantially in March that year. With the Golden Week at the beginning of February in 2008 the PMIs for January and February were pretty weak and rebounded strongly in March. In 2010 the Golden Week was around the middle of February and the PMI for February dropped sharply from January’s number but rebounded strongly thereafter. The 2009 year was omitted due to China’s economy recovering from the 2008/2009 recession.
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It seems to me that this type of business behavior or seasonality is likely to remain for the distant future. With the Golden Week of 2011 scheduled for February 2 – 8, I am unsure as to how the PMI will be influenced. My gut feeling is that either January will be weak as in 2006 when the Golden Week started 4 days earlier than scheduled for 2011, or both January and February will be weak as in 2008 when the Golden Week started 4 days later than that scheduled for this year.
Be that as it may, there is some bad news ahead if the market interprets this in a wrong way!
China’s non-manufacturing PMI for December 2010 was released Monday morning. The PMI rebounded strongly to 56.5 from November’s 53.2. This is in line what I expected. The outlook for January is for a steady PMI but a potential significant drop in February.
Amass Your Fortune With These Top Stocks
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/01/03/amass-your-fortune-with-these-top-stocks.aspx
So the decision by China MediaExpress to pay a dividend is not only a welcome occurrence, but a rare one, too. The company, which operates an ad network of digital TV displays on the country's buses and subway system, says the dividend will amount to between 5% and 10% of net profits.
Short-sellers have been attacking the ad house again after having been burned following a big run-up in November. With the number of shares short rising again, CAPS member SGKamm thinks in addition to the fundamentals it has going for it, China MediaExpress is a good squeeze candidate again:
Incredible growth, brand-new dividend, short squeeze candidate, tremendously undervalued because of investors misplaced fears about Chinese corporations. This thing seems like the real deal and the closest thing to a no-brainer I've seen in my short investing career.
Very interesting discussion on Macau gaming which shows Asia gaming is on fire because of a huge supply of money and limited gaming venues in Asia . Also states the high end roller is driving growth . No mention of Aerl but it shows why it is on fire . Bill Griffith keeps directing him back to the US . These US centered journalists just dont get it .
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/40895182#40895182
I wonder if anyone has an opinion on this company below ?
EGT
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=58320454