acmefirewoodis...(put something here)
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It will go below .10 before it hits .20.
Average down.
Place a number of limit buy orders below .10 and they'll probably fill sooner than you might think unless there is additional news.
Make a few dollars trading the volatility.
All IMHO.
Nothing new in Gerald's blog.
Final LymPro data in September.
Headed back below .10.
Cheaper shares ahead. Opportunity to average down if you're in at a higher price.
I think you are correct.
It was overbought in the expectation that the anticipated LymPro data would justify the share price.
When the data didn't match expectations a number of individuals decided to take profits and pull money off the table.
Gerald's next blog needs to be more specific about the LymPro data and about a specific time frame to launching LymPro.
Ask me after Gerald's next blog and the subsequent market reaction.
The overall market is starting to correct. A lot of newbies got burned last week.
If Gerald fails to deliver substantive news about a partnership near term the market will "blow off" Gerald's comments.
He stated last week that now the complete LymPro data won't be available until some time in the 3rd quarter. I assume that this pushes back his previous time frame of having a partnership finalized by the end of the summer. Why would a partner enter an agreement without the final data?
It's quite possible that the share price tomorrow might go below what you paid for your shares on Friday.
Possibly they meant to say 80% and the 98% and 96% were taken out of context.
I would think that "Risk" could shed some light on what happened to these trials.
The current key support level is .10. With the recent volatility that is the support level that needs to hold.
If anyone is considering buying shares tomorrow I suggest that in addition to whatever price you're buying shares that you also place a limit buy order in the .10 range to support the share price at that level.
Something to consider.
Gerald should also state that under no circumstance will the number of authorized share be increased beyond the current one billion.
That is my major concern if the share price doesn't recover.
p.s. Possibly holding another real time "Twitter" conference would be helpful.
In a press release dated December 15, 2102 entitled "Amarantus BioScience Licenses LymPro Alzheimer's Disease Diagnostic Blood Test" the following information was provided by the company:
"LymPro has completed two Phase 1 clinical studies in over 80 patients, showing 98% sensitivity and 96% specificity for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis."
http://www.fiercemedicaldevices.com/press-releases/amarantus-bioscience-licenses-lympro-alzheimers-disease-diagnostic-blood-te
Can someone please explain what happened to this data. I can't find it referenced in the recent A.A.I.C. posters or the C4CT data for LymPro. Were the numbers for real? I was expecting similar numbers at the C4CT Summit.
One of the catalysts for Thursday's sell off?
F.D.A. Acts on Lab Tests Developed In-House
"The decision, long in coming, has been fiercely opposed by some laboratories and pathologists, who have said that regulation by the agency is unnecessary and would significantly increase the cost and time needed to develop tests , stifling innovation and depriving patients of some vital tools.'
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/01/business/fd....html?_r=0
Check the 5 day chart on Quest Diagnostics. Appears to have had a definite impact:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DGX+Basic+Chart&t=5d
Obviously it's a lot easier for a company such as Quest Diagnostics with a multitude of diagnostic test already in use to absorb the news than it is for a company such as AMBS with a single test in development.
Monday will be interesting.
p,s, I assume that Gerald is aware of this. Possibly he will address its potential impact in next week's blog.
Didn't know it was you.
It was based on posts on that "other" AMBS stock board.
Have a great day!!!
p.s. Looking forward to Gerald's and Jason's next comments.
Hopefully LymPro will be more successful than OPKO's test.
OPKO signs deal with LabCorp on Alzheimer’s diagnosis method
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2012/04/03/opko-in-deal-with-labcorp-on.html
I haven't been able to find out any information as to the structure of the deal that OPHO had with LabCorp. If anyone has additional information it would be interesting to see the financial aspects of the deal.
I don't equate challenging Gerald's character with challenging his judgement.
I think Gerald's character is fine. I think his judgement relative to being the C.E.O. of AMBS has at times created challenging situations for the shareholders. Based on what he's accomplished to date I'd give him a grade of B+.
You probaly recall earlier in the year when right after stating that the company had found a cusip number under which it could bill the cost of a LymPro test that he then added there would be no near term partnership for LymPro. No reason to state it. Share price tanked from .14 to .06 as I recall. He released a blog the next day and a filing that indicated he'd purchase a few shares.
Leading into the A.A.I.C. I think the shareholders/market were led to believe that the LymPro data would be released there. Major world stage for Alzheimer's. It didn't happen and the share price took a hit. There were those that said that Gerald had decided to wait to release the data at the C4CT Summit as it would be in the U.S. with the focus on AMBS and LymPro.
Then it's announced the day before the C4CT Summit that only partial LymPro data would be released. This drew attention to the small sample size and the fact that the data analysis was done "in-house" and the only number released was an 80% detection rate.
Evidently Gerald e-mailed some individuals that the data would be good. One poster termed it "epic".
Gerald "tweeted" yesterday that he would post a blog next week and also that LymPro could be "tweaked" to improve it.
I think Gerald's character is just fine. Also other than the first incident I don't know to what extent the manner in which they were handled was Gerald's decision. He does have a management support team, a board of directors, and a scientific advisory board to offer their input.
Obviously LymPro is the key to where the stock price is headed over the next three months as it is the one asset that could generate revenue short term from a marketing partnership.
The heavy volume over the last three days indicates that the "big boys" are currently in control of the stock and that the retail investor is along for the ride. The one thing that I do know for certain is that I have no idea where the share price is headed.
Note: Did anyone take the time to view the available webcast of the C4CT Summit? I counted about twelve individuals in the audience. Also did anyone notice that Cavendish Global's logo wasn't on the list of supporters?
There's been a number of references on the board to a blood test to detect Alzheimer's that was developed by Opko Health. The following information will give you information to differentiate it from LymPro.
Opko Health: The Placebo Effect
"The Company's Alzheimer's Test (licensed for no upfront payment in 2009), which was nearly the entire basis for the Company's value one year ago, isn't working as hoped and is highly unlikely to ever be commercialized. This test essentially was the source of all investor interest in Opko in 2012 with the analyst at Ladenburg Thalmann predicting a market opportunity that could "approach $3 billion annually". A license to the test was acquired for what appears to have been essentially no upfront consideration from the University of Texas-Southwestern in 2009. The basic idea was a blood test that could diagnose Alzheimer's (currently the only definitive diagnosis is autopsy). As it turns out, the Alzheimer's test has not proven to be as good as the initial study (which was based on just six Alzheimer's patients in advanced stages of the disease). Today, Opko appears to have moved on, downplaying the test's significance and making just a brief mention of it at the back of recent investor presentations. The Jefferies analyst had assigned $3 per share ($1 billion at the time) to this business just last year. Today, it has been removed from her net asset value calculations given the test's apparent failure."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1887851-opko-health-the-placebo-effect
How OPKO got there:
OPKO Health Announces Development of Blood Test for Alzheimer's Disease
http://investor.opko.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=444403
OPKO Health to Collaborate with Bristol-Myers Squibb on Blood Test for Alzheimer's Disease
http://investor.opko.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=542628
Opko signs deal with LabCorp on Alzheimer’s diagnosis method
http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2012/04/03/opko-in-deal-with-labcorp-on.html
What would you assign as a probability that the company will have to increase the number of authorized shares?
I'm thinking it's at least 70%. That is my opinion.
Once it is known when the company can expect revenue from LymPro and/or a partnership it will be much clearer as to the need to increase the number of authorized shares.
I would like to hear Gerald state that it won't happen.
Being a board moderator puts individuals on a real power trip.
Posted On: 08/01/2014 6:16:40 PM
Posted By: Tanis2476
Re: WCoastGuynCA #2885
If you play by the rules you can post. We know your games as does everyone on Ihub and YMB no matter what alias you go by.
Below are examples of what not to post:
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 6h
$AMBS - There is more to the sell-off than delayed LymPro numbers. Most likely culprit is an increase in the # of authorized shares to 1.5B.
SOURCE?
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 7h
$AMBS - Potential revenue from LymPro got pushed back. Creates the possibility that the number of authorized shares may have to increase.
LIE, GC STATED LYMPRO IS ON TRACK
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 8h
$AMBS - Major concern now is additional dilution. The company is very near the 1B shares authorized. Gerald should address this concern.
LIE
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 9h
$AMBS - LPC can buy shares as low as .04. Interesting day ahead.
AMBS DETERMINES WHEN AND AT WHAT PRICE
Every other post on and prior to July 30 was blatant bs pumping.
If you play nice, your posts stay, if you continue to mislead through lies and FUD, you are done. You have been warned for the last time.
My response:
Below are examples of what not to post:
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 6h
$AMBS - There is more to the sell-off than delayed LymPro numbers. Most likely culprit is an increase in the # of authorized shares to 1.5B.
SOURCE?
Obvious speculation just as other have speculated (WARP) that the company will receive millions from a LymPro partner. Source?
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 7h
$AMBS - Potential revenue from LymPro got pushed back. Creates the possibility that the number of authorized shares may have to increase.
LIE, GC STATED LYMPRO IS ON TRACK
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 8h
$AMBS - Major concern now is additional dilution. The company is very near the 1B shares authorized. Gerald should address this concern.
LIE
When I met with Gerald at LD Micro I asked him if it was possible that the number of authorized shares would have to be increased to 1.5 or 2 billion. His response was: "I can't rule out the possibility that it might happen."
WCoastGuynCA @WCoastGuynCA · 9h
$AMBS - LPC can buy shares as low as .04. Interesting day ahead.
AMBS DETERMINES WHEN AND AT WHAT PRICE
Not true. AMBS determines when. The closing market price over a specified period determines the price.
If you play nice, your posts stay, if you continue to mislead through lies and FUD, you are done. You have been warned for the last time.
If you get smarter maybe you can stay. Go ahead and delete this before any sees how little you know.
Who gave them a $20M credit line? I guess I missed the small print.
High probability the number of authorized shares gets raised to 1.5 billion.
One of the individuals e-mailing Gerald may want to ask him if it's possible.
I think the recent sell off may be related to it.
Have a great weekend!!!
Do you mean the boat that is currently sinking?
Coin flip is 50%.
Seems too low to be meaningful.
To be honest I don't have the background to evaluate the data.
Interesting that there is no mention of sensitivity and specificity numbers in the press release.
"You can't handle the truth."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amarantus-announces-positive-top-line-132523132.html
Is Gerald willing to state that the number of authorized shares will not be increased?
I think LymPro is now questionable as a relevant revenue source in the next six months to a year.
The ultimate responsibility of the C.E.O. is to keep the doors open. Lincoln Park Capital is still obligated to purchase an additional approximately $18,000,000 worth of shares. The lowest price that they can pay for these shares is .04/share. The company would need 450,000,000 shares if all the shares were purchased at .04 which hopefully won't be the case. Even at .08/share 225,000,000 shares would be needed.
As I see it the only option available to the company is to increase the number of authorized shares to either 1.5B or 2.0B. If this is done I think the share price could fall to the .05 range.
No one knows for certain what will happen. I'm certainly not as smart as some of the other posters on the board but this is my best guess as to what might happen.
p.s. Possibly one of the individuals who is in e-mail contact with Gerald could ask him.
Tomorrow should be a high volume day (30,000,000+ shares) with a good bit of volatility.
Traders will be trying to make trades to pick up a fast $500 profit.
It will be fun to watch.
Up and down it goes, where it will close, no one knows.
I'm out of here.
In case anyone is interested:
Solantey ?@Solantey 3h
@JNapodano Can you confirm that the sensitivity and specificity number for $AMBS's LymPro released today at the Summit were 78% and 82%?
Jason Napodano, CFA ?@JNapodano 2h
@solantey These are preliminary data. I will write something up shortly.
5:04 PM - 31 Jul 2014 · Details
@fibonacci1170 knows less about science than I do.
Hoping for news from Gerald before the open tomorrow.
Interesting day tomorrow. It could close at .13 or .07.
Volatility is a good thing.
I don't think it will go below .05 even with an increase in the number of authorized shares to two billion.
If I knew for certain I wouldn't be spending time posting here.
If you could read for comprehension you would know when it changed:
Solantey Member Level Wednesday, 07/30/14 09:52:20 AM
Re: None
Post # of 106364
Gerald Killed the Momentum for the 3rd Time
It was my understanding that not releasing the LymPro data at the A.A.I.C. was because the company believed that the Summit would be a better stage.
Now it's disclosed that the reason was that the data wasn't even available then.
Not cool Gerald.
p.s. Issuing a p.r. the day before the Summit? Just plain stupid.
It's really quite simple.
The market was expecting LymPro numbers for sensitivity and specificity that would clearly make it the "gold standard" for Alzheimer's detection. Unfortunately it appears that in diagnostic terms it was marginally better than a "coin-flip".
Here again this is my opinion and I'm not qualified as a scientist to extrapolate the available information to a meaningful conclusion. I'll let others on the board do that.
As for increasing the number of authorized shares by 50% or a 100% I don't see another alternative but then again I'm not a financial type individual. I am barely able to balance my checkbook.
I think LymPro is now questionable as a relevant revenue source in the next six months to a year.
The ultimate responsibility of the C.E.O. is to keep the doors open. Lincoln Park Capital is still obligated to purchase an additional approximately $18,000,000 worth of shares. The lowest price that they can pay for these shares is .04/share. The company would need 450,000,000 shares if all the shares were purchased at .04 which hopefully won't be the case. Even at .08/share 225,000,000 shares would be needed.
As I see it the only option available to the company is to increase the number of authorized shares to either 1.5B or 2.0B. If this is done I think the share price could fall to the .05 range.
No one knows for certain what will happen. I'm certainly not as smart as some of the other posters on the board but this is my best guess as to what might happen.
Best of luck in the market.
Penny stock go up and they go down. If I knew for certain when they would do either I wouldn't be posting here.
Why would I add below .12 if it's going to .08?
Pointing out the stupidity of Gerald's action is not bashing. It's pointing out the obvious.
Evidently the market agreed.
I don't see that the company has any choice but to increase the number of authorized shares. The primary function of the C.E.O. is to keep the doors open.
If I'm wrong then so be it. It wasn't me that killed the momentum.
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,000 followers.
I expect the company will increase the number of authorized shares to either 1,500,000,000 or 2,000,000,00 in the near future.
Stay tuned for news.
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,000+ followers.
Brewer Sports ?@BrewerSports 18m
CEO of @Amarantusbio @G_Commish will be on @ESPNradio TONIGHT at 8p ET with former NFL player @sidneyrice to talk #C4CT and concussions.
Stay tuned for news.
Great Numbers for the Second Quarter - $92.1M In Cash versus $152M Market Cap.
SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, CA, July 30, 2014 - Cytokinetics, Incorporated (Nasdaq: CYTK) reported total research and development revenues for the second quarter of 2014 were $7.8 million, compared to $1.0 million during the same period in 2013. The net loss for the second quarter was $8.4 million, or $0.23 per basic and diluted share. This is compared to a net loss for the same period in 2013, of $15.0 million, or $0.58 per basic and diluted share. As of June 30, 2014, cash, cash equivalents and investments totaled $92.1 million.
http://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=63088880
Gerald Killed the Momentum for the 3rd Time
It was my understanding that not releasing the LymPro data at the A.A.I.C. was because the company believed that the Summit would be a better stage.
Now it's disclosed that the reason was that the data wasn't even available then.
Not cool Gerald.
p.s. Issuing a p.r. the day before the Summit? Just plain stupid.
When last asked about writing a new article on $AMBS prior to the A.A.I.C. Jason stated that he was waiting until after the conference to write a new article. I assume he expected the LymPro data to be released at the conference.
Since the data was delayed until the C4CT Summit I expect Jason to publish a new article as soon as the LymPro data is released; possibly as early as Friday. I also expect a follow-up article after LymPro revenue projections are made and a partner is named.
The share price could be in the .40-.50 range by then.
Stay tuned for news.
"The trend is your friend but it's the science that will make you rich."
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,000+ followers.
"$AMBS - The next Amgen in its infancy"
Cytokinetics presenting at:
Canaccord Genuity 34th Annual Growth Conference
August 13-14, 2014
Boston, MA
Imagine the share price doubling in a single trading session.
I've seen it happen before.
Stay tuned for news.
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,000+ followers.
"LymPro has completed two Phase 1 clinical studies in over 80 patients, showing 98% sensitivity and 96% specificity for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis."
http://www.fiercemedicaldevices.com/press-releases/amarantus-bioscience-licenses-lympro-alzheimers-disease-diagnostic-blood-te
If these are in-line with the numbers that Gerald will release this week the share price will hit the .40-.50 range. The global media coverage on LymPro will be tremendous.
.70 by the up-listing.
Stay tuned for news.
"The trend is your friend but it's the science that will make you rich."
Twitter: @AmarantusBio .... 10,000+ followers.
p.s. Expecting new article from Jason Napadano by next Monday. He'll be all over the update.
Note: I think the news is getting out that Gerald has several rabbits in his hat and a few cards up his sleeve.