Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
Explore small cap ideas before they hit the headlines.
Plenty of red across the board but DK was a notable standout. I see that they closed the transaction to sell non-core California assets to World Energy, proceeds $72m. Deutsche Bank raised target price from $43 to $46.
Stock is performing strongly over the last week. I plan to ride this horse into low 40’s and then look for an exit point. I find DK management action a little troubling with regards to outstanding ALDW distributions and if left unpaid speaks to a lack of integrity on their part. Not something I care to invest into long term (though doesn’t preclude me from latching onto the trend for a shorter term trade which seems to be working).
Great numbers and stock price reaction in a down market.
Seems to me however the company does not intend to distribute any further funds to previous ALDW holders. Deal is done and the horses left the barn. Of course I would love to be wrong!
Jugs, I’m also quite hopeful old-ALDW drops down into DKL. You’re right - the Yahoo crowd was fighting you on that one :)
Jones - somebody posted on Yahoo Finance that the company was raising money through preferred stock. Who knows, but you’re right the volume was big (at least relatively). I looked back 3 years and last couple days were among top 3 volume days over that entire period - although on a dollar basis still quite small.
Distribution raised a penny to $0.725 payable Feb 12. They have raised it roughly the same amount every quarter going back at least to 2013. Certainly no game changer but I’ll take it. Would sure like to see the ALDW distribution included in this figure going forward :)
New 52 week highs for Team DK/ALDW this morning. I received my proxy statement via email and happy to consent to the deal. ALDW is now up 38% since the merger was announced. Not too shabby.
Upgrades and increased price targets this morning from Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley. Target raised to $44 at MS and $48 at WF
Alright gentlemen, I had such a good time riding along with you on ALDW that I’ve made the plunge into DKL. Managed to scoop 500 up on Friday at 32.80. It sure is thinly traded but likewise I’m optimistic that will improve over time. If history is a guide they should be declaring the distribution on or around Jan 25 (paid around Valentines Day).
I’ve decided to hold ALDW through the New Year. I can’t get my arms around the partnership ordinary income component upon sale so have chosen to defer until next year.
There does seem to be continued momentum into Q1 and happy to see Team Delek rallying today.
A big 44 share block went off today. Must be the institutional investors getting involved :)
DK is my favorite stock ever that I actually didn’t own, at least directly (still sitting with ALDW). What a great run and I’m struggling to decide where my jumping off point will be.
Glad to see you putting money into EPD and ETP - they are the two largest holdings in EMO (closed end fund I own which has suffered). They are due for a turnaround, if it happens I’ll label it the “Jugs effect”.
I continue to hold ALDW, which is in lock step with DK now and exhibiting zero fear of deal unwind given the tight spread on announced terms. Given the deal could close in a short period of time, Arbs in my view would jump in if there is a spread widening so I don’t fear a sell off. I will be looking for an exit point (in my mind $15-16) though I love the way DK is trading. 1.9m shares traded Friday (2x normal) and that can’t be all you guys :)
Glad to be back in the U.S. and looking at some of the other recommendations.
Sitting in a pub in London downing pints and catching up on days of interesting posts on our ALDW.
I’m not sure why people believe ALDW materially diverges from 0.49 exchange factor. The press release I read called it a definitive agreement and it passed DK’s Conflicts Committee (whatever that is exactly I’m not sure but it sure sounds official). The fact a number of people are selling today and stock is holding up shows that Arbs are probably picking up slack, ie spread is only 7 cents wide. While ALDW may cease to exist it remains a synthetic financial instrument tied to DK price and to that degree I’m pleased to see DK up nicely today. I’m open to idea I missed something but that’s how I interpret it.
I would fully agree that no further distribution should be expected by unit holders, or at least that’s a conservative assumption.
Looks like it’s time to start exploring some of the other companies being discussed - interesting times!
But doesn’t that mean a buy out around $14 if the are using exchange ratio of .49? DK shares trading at just over $28 as of today.
Need to read terms more closely but that was my initial take?
Cleared $13 easily. I was just reading that CVRR announced a $0.94 distribution yesterday. Makes me optimistic that my ALDW distribution target might be a little low.
Fully content to wait - stock is finding 13+ a comfortable place to be. Let it keep running :)
52 week high on strong volume - no complaints here
Company will announce earnings after the close on November 8th with a conference call summarizing quarterly results scheduled the following morning.
Jugs, thanks for the comments - helpful as always. Intuitively I would think with refineries going offline that would be impact ALDW stock price to the upside given impact on supply (perhaps materially). Does ALDW have much (any) involvement with Houston area or is distribution mainly westward? I've not seen any data on spreads for the last few days but I'm sure it's volatile.
These are the times I really value your and others' inputs regarding the industry.
Just a horrible situation down there and they're saying the remnants don't even make it up to Connecticut (my home base) until Sunday.
I hope everyone enjoyed their nice fat distribution that hit their accounts yesterday. Already looking forward to the next one.
From Bloomberg: EPA set to reject Icahn-backed tweak to biofuel program
I see that we're currently a mere 30 cents from reaching a new 52 week high. 2 year graph isn't quite as happy but it still feels good cracking $12.
Jugs - I imagine there are some short term dividend hunters but with consensus building that next few quarters should be pretty good it supports a case for sustainable share price growth for longer term oriented investors.
35 cents. Close enough - I'll take it.
CVRR out with earnings - a loss reported and stock down almost 10%. They highlight RINs as the single largest headwind. What surprised me in the release regarding RINs was their comment that the EPA needs to address the "manipulated and contrived" market or small independent merchant refiners will remain "in financial distress and at risk of closure". Strong words.
Jugs - thanks for the update on spreads. That's encouraging to me and I'm hopeful we can have a repeat of last quarter or better. I don't get too concerned with the daily price fluctuations but I love seeing those distributions hit the account - the next one is earmarked for a new set of skis for the upcoming season!
I would somewhat disagree as terms have changed and you would think something has developed to the point they see necessary to go through effort and cost of filing another 8-K. But you are correct - nothing moves forward without the $1.5m in financing. I'm sure that would come with additional dilution to the 30m shares earmarked for DaVinci. I'm not following this board any longer but instead migrating to Yahoo Finance.
Thoughts on crack spread movements over the last few weeks? I try to look at these occasionally but confess I get confused trying to conclude how exactly that impacts the company.
Pete, thanks for the link. Hopefully Delek will ultimately do right by ALDW shareholders but the uncertainty in my view puts a cap on the stock - question is for how long. They did mention they don't want all these separate publicly listed refineries so some consolidation will probably occur. I can't really assess what the good or bad outcomes from this might be.
At least I think our holding should be a good income source this quarter while we wait to see how this plays out.
Hopefully there's something more going on but it's a laugh. Come over to Yahoo Finance boards - there aren't many on there either but more than here
Hi Jugs - while I've learned a fair amount about this business over the past couple years, there are numerous others including yourself who are far better informed. I've enjoyed reading your posts and taking away that knowledge.
I've been focused on income with ALDW since my initial purchase at too high of a price. My most recent buy reflects an assumption that we're back on the upswing and the conference call confirms for me the last distribution wasn't a one-off. That's my thesis at least. I'm hopeful for 50-60 cents + going forward. If that pans out mid / upper teens seems realistic. Let's hope the momentum continues this week!
I looked through the conference call notes on Seeking Alpha sit:
- Q1 output was a record 78k barrels/day. This will fall to 73k in Q2 as there's a 10 day shutdown of FCC unit for maintenance. Expected 2017 volumes to average $75k
- Management encouraged by widening discounts in WTI Midland and WTS relative to WTI Cushing in Q2. Thinks Midland Cushing differential can move out to $1.50 while forward curve remains similar to today's levels.
- Strong wholesale marketing environment, particularly for diesel as drilling picks up in Permian. Additional pipelines to be built but tough to gauge timing. Management sees real demand in market
- Lower RINs than in Q4
- Based on operating plan, they state they should generate sufficient cash for Q2 distribution
- Management approved $14m investment to progress several capital growth projects at Big Spring. Expected to complete in next 2 years with less than 2 year payback on investment
- Merger with Delek expected to close on or around July 1st
Looking forward to the next 3-6 months!
Ok, I've upped holdings to 2500, this is my cap as I force myself to adhere to diversification rules. There's an excerpt of the conference call on Seeking Alpha - seems to me distribution should be decent this quarter too given spreads.
Nice quarterly results!
52 week high today - believe it or not
Thanks. I didn't even see the news so that explains a few larger blocks this week. But volume is still pretty low on a dollar basis. Hopefully things start moving. $5 stock really moves up my retirement plan given all I bought several years back lol.
Volume has picked up this week. Would love to hear something from the company on progress
A little disappointing but I'm not sure I was anticipating a materially higher amount. I'll take it...
I also noticed a bit more volume - just assumed some more people were getting out. I'm still rooting for the company but given the lack of communication I can't even say what their strategy is any longer.
They heard your complaints and issued shortly afterwards. 0.15 distribution.
10-K for year ending October 2015 was released yesterday. Nothing very interesting given the staleness. Shares outstanding slightly increased to 20.4 million and no material Subsequent Events