is... something
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Time to lurk as I watch this 5th wave unfold. All the non-believers can hold during the eventual 2nd. It should be fun -- and profitable (for me). Chau, ladies.
if I read certain BS (like the Elliott BS theories)
Ignorance is bliss, isn't it?
Most people don't want to buy stocks when they're on sale. They seem to want to wait until there's "safety in numbers" before buying. I agree with your view on the news.
I don't see any BS talk about the gap being filled now.
I do believe the time has finally come to get back into this one. I saw lostmyballs post something about this on the CGS board so I looked at the chart. He's right -- CSGH is about to take off in a big way. I'll go back into hibernation now....
It looks like the 7.00 low will hold after all. I expect some nice upward price movement soon. Of course, the 10-K will be the catalyst.
At some point this stock will resume its up trend and it will get a lot more predictable (for me). Has that now begun? A move over 2.20 with good volume would seem to indicate this. On a weekly chart this stock is as oversold as it's ever been.
One thing that doesn't make sense to me is why would T Squared let this GAAP crap continue if they truly want to continue holding a stake in Kangtai? A casual look at the numbers will stifle investment in this company. I would think T Squared would convert all the warrants to eliminate this accounting BS. If they had to they could sell just enough shares then to cover the payout to the company. Is this what has been done over the last few months? If so, we may not find out until May. Thoughts anyone?
The fact is that while these results may seem disappointing to some (and I suspect it's only because the stock has languished) they are really quite amazing, however, it is only when you consider the stock price that you can put these numbers in the proper context. I've read recently that some people were less than impressed with Kangtai's growth, that it is among the lowest of US-listed small-cap Chinese stocks, but what price do you want to pay for the growth? I know there are a lot of momentum investors on these boards, and that's understandable. It's difficult psychologically to trade against the herd.
This post is already rambling. All I really want to say is that on a discounted cash flow basis this stock is one of the best value propositions out there. That's what originally attracted me to it and I continue to maintain my optimism. I hope you're right about revenue and earnings growth, Steven, but I'm afraid it may be wishful thinking. I will be happy if they meet their guidance.
Thanks for posting this information. I appreciate it.
It's going to take some convincing for the people waiting for that gap to be filled. What I'm trying to say is that as long as it stays in this general range people waiting for that gap to fill will hold off on any planned purchases. Once the stock is sufficiently away from this area and as long as the fundamental situation remains positive we'll probably see some of them capitulate and buy in.
Well, I just found on CNBC's web site that John Stanton, founder of Trilogy International Partners, was just on. Maybe you misheard?
You're talking about AJ Cervantes, I assume. So what did he have to say?
Thank you. <EOM>
I can't forget the waves, pappy, as it's the only theory that can explain the fat tail events we see so often in capital markets. I try to keep an open mind and learn from everyone as what makes stocks move is not any fundamental or technical analysis; it's the collective actions of the market's participants bringing their biases and flawed models to the table. Yes, all of our models are flawed.
That being said, what price would represent a 20 bagger for you?
I have to have a bit of a longer time frame on positions in these small-cap stocks. When I find a situation like NEWN I put on very large positions, which can be difficult to trade in and out of. In this case I traded out toward the end of the 3rd wave last year and then waited for a good time to get in to the 4th knowing that they can be long and tiresome. I have a nice average position that has remained positive almost the entire time I've been holding it. I'm looking to exit this position on the next primary leg up and I think all the signs will be there to tell me when to sell, but I'll need volume to do it without killing the price.
Good job on CREG. I really hoped you would. The risk is clearly to the downside there and I maintain my call. It's the polar opposite of CKGT's chart in terms of divergence, however the volume is strong so we'll see what happens.
CKGT: In EWT 4th waves usually retrace 38.2% - 50% of the preceding same degree wave. The overall structure is a little fuzzy for me, but I'm counting 1 from 0.12 to 0.91, 2 from 0.91 to 0.67, 3 from 0.67 to 3.00, and 4 from 3.00 to possibly 1.94 if it's over. I was fooled by the strong reactions on 1/26 and 2/5 into thinking that a symmetrical triangle would unfold. Instead we've gotten a descending triangle, which still meets all the criteria for a 4th wave. The 38.2% - 50% range for the low point is 1.82 to 2.10 so the low we have so far at 1.94 is perfectly reasonable. If the gap were to be filled at 1.75, it would be a little too much of a retracement for a 4th leading me to believe that either the count is wrong (that we're really in a 2nd wave right now) or we'd see a truncated 5th. Neither of those situations would make me very happy, but as always patience would prevail in that event.
wash, rinse and repeat
Now that the pattern is so easily identifiable as manifested in the corrective triangle we've had since October it will no longer repeat. New highs will be seen in the coming months. The price targets are varied and will depend on the wave structure as things unfold.
Nice buys though for sure.
To keep this post on topic: It's starting to look like the gap won't get filled after all and CKGT is ready for its next primary leg up.
Looking back over the last few days/weeks I see quite a few off-topic posts, but it appears only mine get deleted. Sounds like a vendetta to me. LOL
Not a thanks to be had -- only criticism. I would think there would be more respect. Oh well....
Like I've said many times before, level 2 quotes on these OTC stocks are a total scam. I certainly don't trust them.
Yes, absolutely. The tough part is figuring out when these patterns end. I think yesterday marked the end.
Man, it sucks to be wrong all the time. Ka-ching!
This is the third attempt to get prices below 7. Is it going to trade below there? How can this be known definitively? I do know that many momentum indicators are as low as they've been in months and there are divergences beginning to show. All of these things are happening at relatively higher prices which is a good thing if you're long.
To all my TA fans here (I made these calls yesterday):
Buy HPJ and NEP. Sell CREG and PUDA.
I think my comment was misunderstood. There are many people looking for the gap to get filled. That level is what i was referring to and I'm not convinced it will ever get filled.
Corrective waves are notoriously difficult to predict because of their irregularity. Students of Elliott Wave Theory know this. The common response to a comment like this is to bash the theory. There is nothing wrong with the theory; the fault lies with the person applying the theory.
There has been and still is bullish divergence on CKGT's chart. This is not EWT. At some point it will resolve itself in an upward move in the stock price. The fundamentals demand this, in my opinion. If it doesn't happen, then I have lost time. Not money since I'm up on the trade. Just time.
Careful with CREG. It's set up for a fall.
Traderfan can buy all he wants. ;)
Looks like the correction may be over here. I'm seeing similar things all along the Chinese small cap universe.
Yes, I knew what you meant.
It's common to read stuff like that from people who obviously don't understand what I write. You also seem not to want to understand.
I wonder how I can possibly make money if I'm so consistently wrong. The answer is that I'm not consistently wrong. Sometimes yes, of course.
One more thing, Eeyore. I'm sure I manage a heck of a lot more money than you'll probably ever have. That's because of my consistency. Maybe I should put you back on ignore.
It looks like we're going to get a reaction off the ~76.4% retracement level. It's a tease for people like you who are wanting lower prices.
No worries.
Have you had a chance to look at the pro forma balance sheet for the combined entities? The increase in book value and book value per share is pretty amazing. Also when you compare the peaks in price/book along various points of this rally you can make the case for about $20/share as a peak price to compare to previous valuations the market has given NEWN.
That being said, I should probably clarify. I'm not sure what 'vawedo' means by immediate, but I think this larger degree move will probably be similar to what happened in July of 2008, which marked the beginning of the primary trend NEWN is still in. My views are always subject to revision, but right now I think the 7.00 low will hold and wherever this first little wiggle up goes will be retraced pretty deeply. This won't seem like much of an advance but it will be important as there will be a higher low on the chart. The 10-K is coming out by the end of the month (if they file it on time) and there will more than likely be a volume spike on this event.
My time frame is a couple weeks to a month for it to be obvious to everyone that the next leg up has begun.
I am not overly optimistic we will see an immediate spike.
I agree, and I hope no one has misinterpreted what I've written.
Yes, there have been nice reactions at many points along that trend line on a linear chart. I'm thinking there will be a break of a volume trend line I've been watching around 4/15, which seems strange given that they should file their 10-K by 3/31. The 4th quarter probably won't be that great year/year, but 1st quarter of 2010 should look really good. The stock is undervalued by quite a bit given their guidance so it really could move strongly at any time. As I've said before I think this 5-month long correction is over and the next larger move should take it into the double digits easily. We'll see....
Since I made this call NEWN has had two inverted hammers in a row (bullish candles in this context) and the low has held. The evidence is mounting that the 5-month correction is over and double digits are coming soon.
I have not, but I'd like to. How are you getting them?
Time to get ready for some gardening and lawn work.
That's what I've been doing. Enjoy!
It was $0.50 split adjusted.