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"this company is borderline".
Can you explain? thnx.
anybody thinks yesterday's spike in volume and today's bad news is just coincidence ? not me.
true. Sometimes you donot get what you want so you get what you can get. Whether 30miles or 300 miles they have to truck it or transport by railway anyway. Main thing they get it.
agreed. I just hope it stays below $1 a couple more days so I can back up my truck.
I hope you're right. My EOY prediction is 11.5.
Capacity increases take a long time to reach full 100% output increases and to reflect in earnings. Some of it as well as better pricing is already reflected in the YOY 180% rev. growth in 1H 09, that's 2.8x last year's revenues! 2H09 rev = 25236m, I am assuming 25236x2.8=70,660m for 2H09 to account for all that growth. Your prediction is way too rosy. A an investor, I'd rather have a "conservative" prediction than a too optimistic one.
anybody has a guess at 2009 earnings? I see 14m rev approx since 1Q and 2Q were weak and new plant wont start until Oct IMO.
I think your estimate is way too high. Assuming 3Q and 4Q will have same growth of rev as 1Q and 2Q average, 2009 rev may be about 140m, net inc. about 22.7m. Based on same OS as now, eps will be about 0.96 IMO.
Fernando:
That's correct. It's located at Jiangyin port (acc. to Corp. Presentation, Feb 09). Not only easy access to imported feedstock and export market but also close to many ships which need large amount of diesel !
What I like also is they have plans for the next 2 refineries, one in Hebei one in Xinjiang (Inner Mongolia I believe) with similar easy access to raw material and potential customers.
This company WILL grow.
can you elaborate?
exactly.
Mistake 1: how can a CFO (and their highly paid PR arm Red Chip)whose job is to sell the company to investors make such a horrible mistake at such an important presentation and spook investors to death?
Mistake 2: why can't they release that corrective PR over the w/e or before market open today to dampen the selling panic that started at 2PM last Friday?
Many investors like me had a stop sell order that was triggered today AM after the stock tanked at market open today before the PR came out. This could have been easily avoided with the right timing.
What PR amateurs these guys J Crane and Red Chip are ! I am mad like hell.
burp:
seems to me the candles show a bearish engulfing pattern that may take the price down to 0.60. What's your take?
the additional 8.2m represents a 38% dilution! Holy cow. That would explain the 0.94 eps vs. my previously calc. 1.24 eps. But if the acquisitions boost the eps by more than 38% going forward, then that's fine with me.
no plan B either? Any info on when the 18% deal on Jianghe mine closes? I was hoping to hear me about this this week. Obviously wishful thinking.
I agree that valuation as is is excellent. If 3Q and 4Q match last year's numbers in rev and earnings, I see EPS=1.26-1.27 for 2009 without any addition (assuming same # of OS). Any good news may easily double PE from here plus increase margin and profit, making a triple within a year or so within reach. It's amazing that they can do $1+ EPS with such a low margin (net=8%!). Imagine what they can do if net margin is at 12-15%.
Stockpicker:
The result is the same: you get much less mines if you close the small ones since there are so many more small mines than big ones. I just dont see why somebody would want to sell mines that are producing more than 300KT/yr (esp. 6 of them) if they dont have to. Seems to me there is plenty money to be made from mines producing 200KT/yr. At least from what I see from LLFH: they make good money with 3-4 mines each having a capacity of 200KT or less. So I do not automatically assume that all 6 mines to be bought by PUDZ have capacities of more than 300KT. We want earnings estimate to be on the conservative side, if it ends up being more, that's even better for the investor.
I think if the 6 mines were all doing more than 300KTons each per year, they wouldnt need to be acquired or "consolidated" in the first place. Why would they? So my guess is the average capacity of the six mines will be somewhere b/w 100KT (your worst case scenario) and 300KT (but not 600KT as per your first post). I think 150KTx6= 900KT is a reasonable guess. If PUDZ gets it.
But the other thing is: if they already have an approval, they cannot hold it secret for weeks and would probably have announced it by now. This would also get them more attention/leverage at the conference like LLFH just did today with their PR. Also news would have leaked out by now and the stock price would not be where it is today. So I tend to think it's more likely that Plan B will be announced in NYC: more interest of the current mine acquired.
ok, let's assume 1.8M Tons IF PUDZ gets the 6 mines deal (we'll know next week, if they got the deal, price may double within a day or two I guess?).
How much has LLFH got?
-planned 88% capacity inc by April 2010 of its current 2 mines to 450K tons
-Laos mine operational End 2009 with 200K Tons
-65% interest in 4th mine (Tian Ri) slated for operation in 2011, assumed capacity= 300K tons to be compliant, 65%x300= 195K Tons
-interested in buying 65% interest in Hon Shen's coking facilities, assumed capacity= 300K tons, 65%x300= 195K Tons
Total LLFH capacity by 2011= 450+200+195+195=1,040 K Tons
not counting any further acquisition within next 2 years.
not sure about CHGY. Can you provide info about their capacity so we can compare the three? Thanks.
Fernando:
Good point. I read Glenn's message (PUDZ Global Speculation-Round1)about this, he assumed an average of 600k Tons for each of the 6 mines being consolidated based on Shaanxi mining quota. But that seems improbable to me. The very reason these mines are consolidated is b/c they are doing less than 300k. So my guess is 150kx6= 900 k Tons per year total. There is also the cost for making them run more safely and efficiently... and how to pay for it. Not so sure about the $2+ EPS Glenn predicted for 2011. But without getting a handle on these # I am not sure I want to be back in this stock. I sold it after last ER. I feel much better about LLFH, not as much gambling involved.
"if they get that approval, they're a much much larger coal producer than CHGY and LLFH combined"
what is the capacity of the 6 mines PUDZ is acquiring?
yes, this bodes well for CHIO, esp. after having lost over 100% value in last 2 months. Good entry point now.
I see the MA 50 is below the candles but way above the MA 200. Is it a good time to buy?
ETrade converted my shares yesterday and the shares appear on my account today. It usually take a few days to convert. GLTY
"No way would I sell PUDC to buy LLFH though.."
short term you may be right, PUDC does much more revenue than LLFH and will be on a big board tomorrow. But it has a very low net margin from its coal washing business (6 to 7%!), has only 18% interest in a coal mine (the 6-mine deal is still uncertain), so it makes $$ mainly by washing coal supplied by others. LLFH is vertically integrated, mines and washes its coal, does coking, plus it has its own wholesale business, a larger geographical footprint and a much higher net margin (26%+-). In a few years LLFH will be much much bigger than PUDZ. JMHO
i am speechless!! maybe it'll be at $1.5 by Friday ?
"I hope it will hit or exceed $1 on strength of Earnings release before the reverse split"
yeah, I hope it will hit or exceed $1 on strength of Earnings release before the reverse split is announced. This would reduce split ratio to about 5 or 6 (instead of 8 or 9 as upper limit given in their recent announcement) to stay above the $4 limit required for a Nasdaq listing. A smaller split ratio is better IMO b/c of higher remaining float, easier trading and lesser price volatility.
yeah, I looked into LLFH that last few days. Looks darn good, I like their prospects even better than PUDC. I think they will eclipse PUDC and other smaller coal companies in a few years. Thanks for the hint.
not sure about tomorrow but it will probably continue to climb until Earnings release.