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nice job thanks Donk. I find this link particularly helpful to understanding the unique features of V3:
http://sphere3d.com/v3-appliances-features/
Great to see us on the radar of niche fund managers.
excellent find TS. Thanks
Nice analysis RD. A PEG of 1.5 seems reasonable if we list on a senior exchange.
the Swede: do you think MF production will reach 50,000MT by 2020? RD projects only 5000-7000 MT in 2017 IIRC. To ramp up from 5,000 to 50,000MT within 3 years seems to be quite a stretch to me with all the delays they have had so far.
Yes agree that post should be made a stickie. It no doubt helps us long timers too.
Thx. How much will resale contribute to the bottom line approximately ?
If those 3 incomes are included and we donot get diluted by the extra 9 m shares (os 23m ) what Is your estimate for 2016 eps ?
I don't plan to count for an eternity haha Just long enough to secure my nearing retirement lol. More seriously, the counting for me is not for the sake of counting. But it just helps me better understand important concepts as to how they plan to run the MF (by far the most important part of Siaf imo) and ensure the best possible margin in coming years. Just until this morning it was not clear to me how the partial harvesting concept exactly works, the difference between 4 cycles vs 14 cycles per year (which one applies?), how mortality effects the production numbers etc... but the following and counting of the exact numbers shown on Slide 16 (although probably more meant as an illustration of RAS vs. open dam) together with helpful discussions on this board really helped me understand the fundamental concept of partial harvesting which is central to MF operation. That's important enough for me at this point, short of talking to the CSO himself...
I know. I thought the super tanks in Buiding 2 are reserved for Stage 4 grow out. But where are prawns moved to after Stage 1 if they are to go into 72 tanks if Building 1 and 3 are identical with only 36 tanks?
You are probably right. Are the 72 tanks in another building, #3?
ok pellet vs algea feed. Maybe. How about the second part of my question? What happens to the sales of the 66gm prawn? why does that get added to the prior total?
hah i got it now I think thanks to your nice repro of Slide 16 (SIAF APRAS Strategy).
Each prawn larva (PL) still goes thru a 4-staged growout period totaling 13 weeks but they have to be transferred to a different tank (possibly from Building 1 to Building 2 to Building 3) so each tank in Building 1 will be free to be restocked with new larvae after the first stage of 3-4 weeks, average 3.7 weeks per restock or 14 cycles per year. Of the 600k stock they sell 52MT of 6gram prawn after Stage 1, then 163MT of 10gram prawn after Stage 2, then 253MT of 17gram prawn after Stage 3, totaling 468MT/cycle or 468MT x 14 cycles = 6552MT.
But I can't figure out what happens to the prawn after Stage 4 that lasts only 2-3 weeks and why the prawn size almost quadruples within the last 2-3 weeks, from 17 gm after Stage 3 (that lasts 3-4 weeks) to 66gm in Stage 4? Why prawn grows so fast in a much shorter period? And why the tonnage of 66gm prawn (Stage 4) doesn't get added to the 468 MT (Stage 1-3) total, especially if that large prawn size sure commands a higher ASP than the other small sizes? Anybody?
Yes it seems they want a higher margin rather than higher tonnage. We know Solomon is a master of maximum efficiency. So I can imagine they'd rather sell 2kg of tiny #140 prawn size at $12/kg that takes 7 weeks total to feed than selling a single Wow type 2 kg Giant prawn at $30 a piece that requires 52 weeks of feeding and cannibalizes all the smaller OC (Orange Claw) and BC (Blue Claw) prawns in the tank!
But it doesn't hurt for us investors to understand the rationale going forward.
My question is how many APM tanks they use per building to achieve the 6500 MT per year stated by Dr O in his presentation? My understanding from the 2/26 PR is Building 1 has 36 APM. From Dr Ostrowsky presentation Slide 16 it now looks like they use lots more, not sure how many though (72 tanks?) .
Is 14 single-stage cycles (instead of 4 per year based on 4-stage cycles of 13 weeks per 2/26 PR) now the main method adopted for the MF going forward? That means they will grow the post larvae only 3.7 weeks (average) per cycle before selling? Really?
A targeted annual production of 6500 MT for 3 buildings (with 36 tanks each)in Phase 1 would require an average prawn size at selling of 140 count per kg (that means 8 gm prawn size!) IMO if they restock each tank with 600k PL The math I have used ( neglecting mortality) is simply:
(600k/ 140) x 14 cycles x 36 tanks x 3 buildings = 6480 MT per year
But if they use more tanks per building then of course they can achieve the same result selling larger size prawn like 70 cts or 40 cts per kg.
Can you ask Dr O to explain in detail the formula he uses in Slide 16 resulting in 6500 MT annual production for Phase 1? I am confused. I donot think they are really going to market mainly only 8 gram prawn. Things donot add up here IMO.
Correct Carog. Except that if you are not adding new prawns in each stage then the production will be limited to the 600k you put in at the beginning. And a 4-staged growout cycle will take 13 to 14 weeks (per PR of Feb 26) meaning only 4 cycles per year. Not 14 cycles per year which implies a cycle of only 3.7 weeks from larval (PL) size which sells at a lower price because of the small prawn size involved (100+ per kg). So there will be not much overproduction over the numbers that RD has calculated. Also the concept of "partial harvesting" that Dr. O discussed really implies IMO a 4-stage grow-out cycle and prawn being harvested and sold at the end of each stage at different sizes and prices.
Lets not jump to conclusions who is right or wrong before we have really understood the numbers. Either we have 14 growth cycles of about 3-4 weeks per year and sell all the PL (prawn larva from PF2) after each cycle which means the prawns are still very small size when being sold out (say 100-120 pcs per kg) and command a low price or we have 4 grow out cycles totaling about 14 weeks total (implying 4 cycles per year) as the Monday PR stated and sell the PL at different sizes (from the smallest size of 100-120 per kg after Stage 1 to the largest size of 20-40 per kg after Stage 4 at higher prices) but the math is different. In latter case RD is right, you have to substract the number of prawn sold in each of the 4 stages because only a smaller and smaller number will remain in the later growth stages. JMO
Nothing wrong with starting the man with a position where he can gain insight into the finances of the company while they were working on getting a foot into the Nordic exchanges starting with OSE which didnot work out... The aqua carve out came much later if you recall. But it was pretty clear to me that somebody of his caliber should not be tied down to a highly technical job like CFO. I think the move with Bertil is exactly what this company needs to do. JMO
I disagree. I think it's very difficult if not impossible for Bertil to be an effective CFO for a such complex company as Siaf with most operations in China (geographically spread out too), not living in China nor speaking the language. But with his tremendous reputation and connections in Scandinavia it makes perfect sense for him to head the planned aqua spinoff. The fact that they made this move and announced it now is actually a very good sign that the spinoff and the funding that it requires are moving ahead well imo.
hopefully they will attend the presentation by the CSO on Thursday.
is stock up 11-12% so far today on Merkur?
Nice initiative.
from the PR it looks like there is no building with 36 APM that you have counted. Building 1 has 48 standard APMs while Building 2 has only 4 very large "APM" (12x as large as the standard APM):
thanks for diigging out that info. If the whole grow-out period takes only 16 weeks (4 cycles per year per tank) and the first stage is about 6 weeks for 110/kg size, the remaining 3 stages take only about 8 weeks together. So the prawn can only grow to a certain size (maybe 20-60 per kg) before being sold out. Your assumption of 100/kg seems reasonable although it may turn out to be less.
I think the reason they use the Giant species is more because of their ability to grow quickly in the first 16 weeks (for more efficient marketing) than because of their final size haha.
I may be wrong but the 20 to 60 per kg they sold "in the old days" were all Mexican White prawns, not the Giant River prawns they are growing now in the MF, at least per PR of this week. The word Giant refers to a much larger species that per Wikipedia is up to 32cm size (long) for males and 25cm for females. So they can't be 20 to 60 pieces per kg imo.
RD: can you explain why you multiply by 36/48? I thought there are 2 tanks per APM so shouldn't the 600,000 fingerlings per tank be multiplied by 96 since there are 48 APM per building right ?
Also why did you use the 100 fingerlings per kg (= 10g per fingerling) being stocked to calculate the final production number of say 18MT/APM? Isn't the final production or capacity based only on the final tonnage of fully grown prawns being sold which should be about 0.5 kg or so per Giant Sweetwater Prawn (my guess)?
thanks Tothe for the excellent TA lesson. Volumes have been however very light lately. Light as a feather as you said. Is it possibly a concern for the downtrend reversal you are seeing?
Excellent video indeed. Good reminder of the large potential of our parts outside aquaculture that many posters here tend to overlook like SJAP, HSA plus CF1 and CF2 as a vertically integrated Wagyu type beef play ...
Nice to see RHI now owning 8% of the company far ahead of our two largest direct institutional owners. Thanks HB for the heads up and the nice work!
almost 35k May 2.5 calls traded now.
so why wasn't V3 Systems specifically named in VMware's PR like S3D? Or invited to speak in that video? hmmm..
Along with an ecosystem of technology partners that includes Dell, EMC, Fujitsu, HPE, IGEL, NVIDIA and Sphere 3D, among others, VMware Horizon enables a first class digital workspace with the flexibility to choose any delivery model."
if it's the other way around then VMware would certainly NOT mention S3D by name (instead of "among others") in their PR and give EK as much or more air time than the Dell VP in the video. Why should they? I'd say it's all S3D's tech that powers VMware's new "One Cloud Any ..." Horizon platform. That's why they have to mention S3D by name. JMO
the size seems reasonable to me considering they may have a few analysts/portfolio managers (besides the 3 principals) to screen international investing opportunities in various sectors plus IR/office staff to cultivate contacts with a fairly large investors base.
if your suggestion is correct, even with just over half of its position converted to Merkur, Incentive (via Mellon BNY) still holds a third position as a single owner right behind the two multi-client holders Avanza and Nordnet on the Merkur exchange. Here is Bellen's original list of owners for reference:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120184673
Nice DD Purchaser. That would clarify a few things in my mind. The most important thing being here we have a fund with a very concentrated portfolio that holds a large and LT position in Siaf. That not only tightens the float of available shares but also has a stabilizing and supportive effect on the pps in the long run. Also another weighty voice to nudge Management toward a more efficient and speedy shareholder value appreciation policy. Jmo
>I gather next year we would be closer to $6 in earnings...<
Not if Swedbanks Maurice Gaard were right. He was predicting fully diluted eps of $1.8 for 2016 and $2 for 2017 if I am not mistaken.
Maybe they were the mysterious end-of-the-day buyer who for months kept the stock from losing every day months ago ? At that time I thought maybe Ecab was trying to support the stock on a daily basis and save it from the OTC manipulators.
Yup. I haven't seen the 13G yet. They now own 10x the shs of Carnegie which is the largest buyer on Merkur. With Ecab, Swedbank and Pareto do we now have at least 5 instis that we know of owning Siaf?
Incentives must have started buying Siaf before it started trading on Merkur on Jan13. Otherwise how can they accumulate 1.1M shs in just about 14 trading days on Merkur without driving the pps thru the ceiling?!That would have averaged about 80k shs bought per trading day which is probably much higher than the average daily volume onMerkur so far right?
I found this particularly interesting...
Our portfolio will be concentrated, with only 10-20 investments at any given point in time and we are looking for companies that we think will perform well for us over multi year periods. We will stay close to the management teams of the companies we invest in and from time to time, we may engage actively if there are areas where we can contribute positively to the value creation process.