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Just tallied the difference between 3rd Qtr 2019 and 1st Qtr 2020.
I know there is some cyclical/seasonal differences here, but still pretty compelling with the financial impact of a smaller footprint.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=13487143&guid=FravUFQ6PxqhR3h
3rd Qtr 2019 from 6/12/2019 filing.
294 - Ann Taylor
670 - LOFT
937 - Maurices = Sold to Private Equity Firm May 6th 2019
661 - Dressbarn
731 - Lane Bryant
332 - Catherines
831 - Justice
4,456 - Total - Revenue $1,265,700,000 - Store Average $284,043.99
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=13787321&guid=mPKvUKcztexSB3h
1st Qtr 2020 from 12/10/2019 filing.
293 - Ann Taylor
670 - LOFT
544 - Dressbarn
715 - Lane Bryant
313 - Catherines
828 - Justice
3,363 - Total - Revenue $1,297,100,000 - Store Average $385,697.65
How Ascena is turning around by closing unprofitable store locations. Comparing 1st Qtr's 2019 and 2020. Ascena had the following store counts....
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=13101589&guid=ojKvUqJkJZOIhMh
1st Qtr 2019 from 12/10/2018 filing.
303 - Ann Taylor
672 - LOFT
961 - Maurices = Sold to Private Equity Firm
723 - Dressbarn
747 - Lane Bryant
345 - Catherines
845 - Justice
4,596 - Total - Revenue $1,591,800,000 - Store Average $346,344.65
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=13787321&guid=mPKvUKcztexSB3h
1st Qtr 2020 from 12/10/2019 filing.
293 - Ann Taylor
670 - LOFT
544 - Dressbarn
715 - Lane Bryant
313 - Catherines
828 - Justice
3,363 - Total - Revenue $1,297,100,000 - Store Average $385,697.65
That is an increase per store average of nearly $40,000 per quarter. What you get by closing unprofitable locations.
With this share structure....ASNA should be comparably priced with its peers between $28 - $48..... High range comparable is Five Below stores would put ASNA at $104 per share.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vMlcfFTCfGTRBYH4MZoXu4sVxYfh4gj8iM_gnyN7E4M/edit?usp=sharing
Leases will be shown as assets instead of liabilities on the balance sheet in 2020? I was not aware....
Wish there was a like button. You would gotten one.
Thanks Patrick for the PM. Yes your number of $1.3 Billion is correct. I think the exact number is $1.26 Billion since they paid down $80 million at a discount.
The numbers I used I got off of Yahoo. Easiest place to get all those stats in one place, without going to look at each companies actual financials.
Yahoo calculates “total” debt that also includes the cost of leases, and other expenses.
What I find interesting..... is that ASNA’s debt when comparing it as a percentage of its revenue, it is right in the middle of where all its peers are. I gotta believe it is going to improve with the ending of the dress barn leases.
I don’t know how Tdeck finds these deep value companies. But Ascena based just on compared metrics with all of its peers is undervalued by a factor of 10-30 times multiples.
I’m only here because Tdeck brought this one to my attention. Huge thanks to him.....
This looks like it is setting up to be his FRAN 2.0 but maybe bigger.
$ASNA seems as people cannot see the forest for the trees that block their view.... ASNA is in the midst of an incredible turn around. Infact, their total debt load is similar to many of their retail clothing peers that are valued much much higher. Check out the below link, to a comparison on Google Docs.
For Earnings, I used only ASNA's recent 1st Qtr Earnings of $3.20 ($0.16 Pre Split). If I estimated the full year of potentially $12.80 it might give some of you a heart attack. If they continue this turnaround with the Dress Barn Closings, ASNA could realistically have full year earnings per share of $12.00 and even higher based on this incredibly low new share structure. Check out these comparisons to their peer group.....
Again, this is just using their 1st Qtr EPS of $3.20
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vMlcfFTCfGTRBYH4MZoXu4sVxYfh4gj8iM_gnyN7E4M/edit?usp=sharing
Be careful..... Cause this could legitimately explode to the upside.
TJX has $2 Billion cash on hand. They could easily offer a many times multiple to acquire ASNA.
People selling this low are crazy... They must have no idea the cap value that they selling at.
By my estimation of Felix’s purchase price, just the Permian property puts a value of over $475 million for Abraxas. That doesn’t include their Bakken property.
Right now AXAS has $200 million in debt, and a lowly $52 million market cap.
If AXAS were to sell, at similar value to Felix looks like a ten bagger.
Hopefully WXP has an interest in the Abraxas contiguous property. I know supposedly WLL was interested in it. Now at least there is a recent valuation available.
Wow..... Today Felix Oil and Gas just sold the properties surrounding AXAS Permian property to WPX Energy for almost $43K per acre for for some 50,000 sum odd acres for $2.5 Billion.
Literally the Felix property surrounds Abraxas property. Run those same numbers if WPX is interested in the 11,000 acres of Abraxas property..... looking at like $470-$500 million!
Maybe deal between WLL and AXAS is close?
AXAS is gaining momentum after be in a Chanel for a while.
Price of oil certainly helps too.
It’s insane..... The company is still viable for petes sake. Over $30 million in annual revenue from other drug sales.
If the company never filed for the PDUFA for Brinavess it would still be at $2
I too have averaged down. Now my average is $.65.
Hoping for the best here. The FDA denial should not have caused a 80%+ sell off. This is completely oversold.
Complete overreaction on CORV....
It already had a significant drop with the FDA's last Friday release of the breifing documents... To have the 2nd drop from the ADCOM was overkill. 80% drop in 2 days is completely oversold...
Here is what United Therapeutics paid for SteadyMed. They basically bought SteadyMed because of Trevyent.
https://www.genengnews.com/topics/drug-discovery/united-therapeutics-to-acquire-steadymed-for-up-to-216m/
Correvio holds the commercial rights to Trevyent in Europe and the Middle East.
Just a thought.....
I doubt United Therapeutics will let their partner in the Trevyent distribution go under.
Just a few days ago, the entire Market Cap of CORV was over $100 Million. Today because of 2 events a briefing document, and an ADCOM Vote. CORV is around $20 Million Market Cap.
CORV still has an underlying business of $30 Million annual revenues.
CORV is also the partner of United Therapeutics on the Europe and Middle East Distribution of Trevyent.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/correvio-highlights-fda-acceptance-of-united-therapeutics-trevyent-new-drug-application-300916707.html
I need nice win badly.... past month has been brutal. Hoping there is news about the Whiting (WLL) and Abraxas (AXAS) potential deal soon.
Would have been a good day if I was a trader.
Ugh
Ugh..... me too.
These dang bio techs and the FDA have cost me dearly the past couple of weeks. First ADMP now CORV.
Goodgrief Shorts..... Give it a break.
Fingers crossed
Think it may be a total acquisition by WLL?
Wow. All I got to say.....
Wish I had more.... But I got enough that will turn out very well I think.
Net income per share of $.16!!!
Good Luck. Got my fingers crossed for good fortunes for all of us.
I was hoping to try to pick up alot more, but I am feeling blessed to have the 100,000 shares I have. Hoping this will turn out to be a tremendous return on investment for me and my family.
Looking forward to what additional nuggets of information you have found.
That is an impressive comparison.
Man..... That would be huge!
What am I missing.... I just skimmed through the briefing doc, and I don’t see anything negative. 9 patients in a study died, 1 was on a placebo and 6 likely had nothing to do with the drug itself. WTH.... the remaining results for 50,000 patients were positive or no adverse reaction. Why this market reaction
Absurdly underpriced.
Hope not....
People should be clammoring to buy this OTCBB stock. They fall all overthemselves to pump 100-500Million dollar market cap scam companies with no products and 1 employee.
Yet here you have FELPU that was sold off because of association to it's parent, to extremely low levels.
FELPU
Market Cap.......... $8 Million
Annual Revenue.. $977 Million
Cash on Hand..... $60 Million +
P/S Ratio............. 0.01
Net Assets.......... $500 Million +
Nice northward price movement so far. This is absurdely undervalued.
How about price to Sales Ratio's
ARCH - P/S 0.47
CEIX - P/S 0.23
FELPU - P/S 0.01
Just this comparison show a justification for a potential 15-20 bagger.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/922079
PHILADELPHIA — A quick-acting, fast-clearing antiarrhythmic agent appeared both safe and effective for conversion of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the emergency department (ED) in a registry analysis that is part of the drug's case before regulators in the United States.
One or two short infusions of the drug, vernakalant (Brinavess, Correvio Pharma in Europe; Cipher Pharma in Canada), successfully cardioverted about 70% of episodes of recent-onset, symptomatic AF in more than 1000 patients tracked in the SPECTRUM registry.
Correvio's presentation slides from the Piper Conference in NY.
https://correvio.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/CORV-Piper-Jaffray-Conf.pdf
Love your PEP talks to me. LOL
Looking forward to this thing being the next FRAN.
By the stalking horse bidder, or a new bidder?