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I'm shorting the hell outta any cross. Don't think the EUR/USD run is legitimate. The risk appetite is too soon I think. EU 2009 is in serious trouble. Shift to the greenback will continue short term.
Gb, I like your quasi-hedge style. Only problem for me is that I don't think I can have conflicting orders, i.e. longs and shorts, on the same pair open at the same time.
Another possible hedging strategy is to use the correlation table I posted and open a long/short on your favorite pair and open an opposite trade, at a smaller lot size, on a negatively correlated pair. This hedges your larger lot sized trade with a smaller lot in case the trade goes bad. Basically increases the chance that you average out a winning trade.
Correlation table for those who trade multiple currencies at the same time. Note how the AUD/USD and NZD/USD almost double each other up. Pretty cool stuff.
Yep...some bite to it. Not pulling the trigger yet. Happy with my AUD/CAD trade. Making a nice run after hitting the bottom channel line.
Running into the tunnel at the 30 sec. It might bounce down from here to take out another layer on the 5 min.
Cool, I'll keep an eye on it. Made a little cash off it last night.
AUD/CAD acting nicely as a channel play. Called this last night at the first circle. Reached almost the top of the channel in the wee hours of the morning. Wish I had a chance to short all the way down to the bottom line. Now bouncing back and finding some minor resistance at the Quad Tunnel on the 30-sec. Hoping for a nice bounce...
We'll see...finding nice support at the 169EMA. Got a limit sell at 65080. It will only get hit if the price breaks through 1 min. tunnel. Looking less and less like a possibility...
Ahh...stopped out for profit, but could of had more. Still think it will break below the tunnel...
Shorted too...haven't covered yet. Think it might break below the tunnel on the 1 min.
There's your opportunity to short...
Whatcha playing gitonwithit? Forex is indeed fun. Technical analysis is so much more effective when there is no manipulation. I'm of the belief that when a stock can be manipulated by MMs it is hard to really predict price movement with TA. Currency pairs are hard, if not impossible, for anyone to manipulate.
Playing a little AUD/CAD tonight. I Like the channel pattern set up. Good chance it will pop up to top trendline and bounce back. Any nice scalpers forming?
Morning FX traders. Yesterday was indeed a crazy day. Amazing to see how the chart moved on the horrific non-farm news. Just goes to show that markets price in news and do not react as you would expect. As you know, I've been closely following the downward demise of the USD/JPY. I closed all of my shorts before the morning and whaddha know it skyrocketed up more than a 100 pips. I wish I could say that I picked such a reversal, but I didn't. Lucky enough, I didn't have any trades, either short of long, in play. But I did jump in for the ride and make some nice gains on the ride up.
Didn't post too much yesterday because I had a busy day at work and then went out later. Looking forward to the week ahead. FX is sooo much more fun than equities. Plus you can hone your skills 24/7. What more can you ask for?
Yeah, I tried to trade today with the mantra "do not give up a pip." It worked pretty well but you end up closing out some trades that you would normally let run. I basically moved my stop up the instant I could to break even. I think this is probably the most conservative (and least risky) way to trade.
I'm really starting to get the hang of it though. I haven't had a negative day yet and have had multiple +1k days (although I can use crazy leverage with the demo account). I still want to get some more experience before I go foreal though.
I'm excited to see how the non-farm news moves the market tomorrow. Should be interesting.
USD/JPY continues its expected free-fall. Been a real money maker following the swings. Next key support is in the 90s. Will we see a fall that far?
USD/JPY about to break a major resistance point. Trying to hold strong at 92.5-6. A break below could mean a nice tumble to its previous Oct. 23 low of 90.903.
Warning well taken. Just trying to understand how the markets absorb economic news. Question though...do you hold any long term plays at all or do you just day-trade?
Cool, thanks man. Yeah ADP was a bad sign. Hopefully they are wrong. With the equation # > forecast, our example would have to be a number actually lower than -300 so like -250 right? I think that equation is good only for positive #s.
Question for the 4X Gurus. I see the non-farm #s are coming out Friday. It's forecast to be around -300k, which is larger than the -240k from Nov. Assuming you wanted to trade these numbers, what is a good actual non-farm? Do you want an actual # that is larger or smaller than the forecast? Also, for USD/* pairs, would a larger actual # cause a decrease in the pair?
Thanks
Wowsers...broke through EMA196 and put a fat green candle. The tunnel strikes again...
Trying to bust through EMA196 on 1-min.
USD/JPY been providing some nice trading opps today. Behaving in trading range pattern. After bottoming out at 92.632 it bounced up to minor resistance at 92.871 and then topped out at major resistance at 93.387. After failing to break resistance it dropped quickly to what was now minor support at 92.873 and will probably bounce back up to test resistance again or fall to major support at 92.6ish.
5-min chart
30-min chart
Yeah...I like how you toggle between 30, 1, 5, and 15. EMA tunnels is very cool...once you understand how to use them. Gonna grab some lunch. Got a limit order placed a little below the EMA169 on 1 min chart and tight take profit right below. Let's see if it gets hit while I'm gone...
Nice, broke through on 30-sec. Bounced back off of 169 on 1-min. 5-min ADX is about to pinch. Just did a quick sell once it broke through and closed out for profit. Looking for next dip to short again.
Looks like that was its last gasp there. Looking for a punch-through to sell. Gotta be patient.
Good stuff investorcg. No doubt this is an intermediate-term penny play if anything. No sense in selling now. There's plenty of other stocks to play in the meantime. The market's volatility is a godsend for short-term traders.
Gotcha. MACD crossed on 5 min. ADX getting closer to a pinch. Its trying to bust through the EMA 196 on 30-sec. So close...
You talking about USD/JPY? Hoping she can punch through the tunnel. Bounced back a bit. Lets see if it can break through prior support.
A/U looks good for a short. Also forming a massive descending triangle on the daily charts, which is continuation signal of the downtrend.
Gonna check it out now. The USD/JPY is falling as expected. Finding supports now at th 62EMA. Should break through and retest 92.800s soon (I hope).
Keep an eye on USD/JPY. Quad tunnel trying to flip after nice bullish run. But about to hit major resistance at 93.40ish. It it fails to break we could see a sweet dip down. On the other hand, a breakthrough will likely result in a big candle up.
Nice timing. Exploding now. Next area of resistance at 93.68ish.
Check it out...its like clockwork, either a dive down to bottom resistance or a test up.
My bad, 93.390ish
USD/JPY just hit a wall of resistance at 93.90+...looking for a fall down to support at 92.950...
Yeah...I agree. But it could fall hard and fast if it does flip and break the trendline. It could also try to retest the double top areas. On the sidelines for now.
Regarding your FXCM note...I at first liked the system, but I think OANDA has better (more user friendly) indicators. I also noticed that FXCM may be guilty of phantom spikes to knock out stops. On the flip side, FXCM is better for viewing long-term time periods for charts. OANDA doesn't allow you to go that far back (unless I'm missing something of course).
Been soaking up the info on that site all day. How's your anti-whiplash strategy working today? Hopefully some nice pips. I've been shorting the USD/JPY all day. Its been kinda all over the place. Still waiting for the drop. Should happen soon. Keep an eye on USD/CAD. It's hugging its trendline after forming an almost double top. A trendline break could = a heck of a shorting opportunity. We'll see.
Simple has this link posted in the IBOX, but I just wanted to reiterate the superb information that can be found at:
http://www.fxstreet.com/
It's really a great site to get trading ideas, opinions, strategies, news, etc. The site hosts really awesome webinars by CTAs and experienced forex traders. Good for newbs like me. Anyways...just thought I'd share.
Looks like the USD/JPY may make a nice drop here. Shorted it at 93.530.
There ya go. Gotta get on top of news in FX. TA doesn't solely cut it. Have to have a global view of the markets.