Lurkin'
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Recession Ahead? Watch Dr. Copper
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/recession-ahead-watch-dr-copper/
Yawn......SOS back to the same old story
I've been here a lot longer then the last news newbie ;)
MOMO players now bag holders?
And this is why I'll wait some more
Even though the DNR has permitted the NorthMet project, PolyMet still needs water and air quality permits from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) and a wetlands permit from the Army Corp of Engineers, along with local permits and approvals.
Oh yeah watch the other players who show up today for the momo play
I'll do like I have been for YEARS, just wait.
They haven't made one copper penny yet!
I have my shares from WAY back.
7 minute video puts it into perspective of the current
bull market. Worth the time to watch.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/29/chart-master-says-its-about-to-get-worse-before-it-gets-better.html
I'm hoping that the EFA will finally fill the GAP up @59-60
from April 24,2017. We are close, maybe that will fill and the
$USD will start to drop and I get a chance to enter.
November 6th a market mover too.
Nice, let's see if cat runs or just bounces!
Answers to Frequently Asked Questions on the New TSP Modernization Act
http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/tsp-modernization-faq.cfm
Here we go again..............
Thrift Savings Plan G Fund Investments Suspended to Avoid Hitting Debt Ceiling
http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/g-fund-debt-limit-2017.cfm
I Fund Changes Proposed for TSP
https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/11/30/i-fund-changes-proposed-tsp/
"WE" are getting a tax cut that we get to pay for ourselves!
Bend over as the GOP is here to help...................
I'm sure most of you already know this.
TSP Modernization Act is Now Law
https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/11/20/tsp-modernization-act-now-law/
Nice seeing your charts again.
Can't let the month end without a single post.
The kitty bounced. Tough play for TSP'ers without steel ones.
S&P 500 just went past the lows of August intraday.
Will be watching the close on this Friday.
For the index chart you are going to hear the same thing for many weeks into the future as a lot of damage has been done – there is no rush to get involved in this market in the intermediate term. It is going to be a place for short term traders to play as a lot of damage has been done and it will be “safer” to buy at higher prices in the future when we see stability. That is counter intuitive to many but low prices don’t mean things cannot go much lower – ask investors in 2000-2002 and 2007-early 2009. So in short, nice bounce today – doesn’t mean a darn thing long term.
https://www.stocktrader.com/2016/01/14/market-recap-jan-14-2016/
Heed the fears of the financial markets
Often markets are volatile at the end of the year – as many traders go on holiday and those with losses unload them – and then settle down as a new year begins. Not this year. U.S. and European markets closed significantly lower on Friday after a very rough week despite a very strong U.S. jobs report. The week’s economic news was dominated by dramatic declines in China’s stock market and currency; the week also saw a further plunge in oil prices even in the face of major tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
A week when bad market news repeatedly makes the front page raises the general question of how much forecasters and policymakers should look to speculative markets as indicators regarding future prospects. And it raises the more specific question of how alarmed policymakers should be about the prospect of a global slowdown, especially in light of the financial dramas playing out in China.
There is little question that markets are highly volatile relative to the fundamentals they seek to assess. Economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped 50 years ago, “the stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” Former Treasury secretary Robert Rubin was right when he would regularly reassure anxious politicos in the Clinton White House that “markets go up, and markets go down” on days when a market move created either joy or anxiety. The best executives manage their company with an eye to long-run profitability, not daily stock price. And policymakers do best when they concentrate on strengthening economic fundamentals rather than on daily market fluctuations.
At the same time, because markets aggregate the views of a huge number of participants, and because they are constantly assessing the future (unlike economic statistics, which only reflect the past), they are like canaries in coal mines: very valuable in giving warning when conditions change. That is why several studies have shown that prediction markets do a better job of forecasting elections than pollsters and why Hollywood studios use such markets to judge the likely success of movies.
Policymakers who dismiss market moves as reflecting mere speculation often make a serious mistake. Markets were on to the gravity of the 2008 crisis well before the Federal Reserve was; to the unsustainability of fixed exchange rates in Britain, Mexico and Brazil while the authorities were still in denial; and to the onset of a slowdown or recession well before forecasters in countless downturns.
While markets do sometimes send false alarms and should not be slavishly followed, the conventional wisdom essentially never recognizes gathering storms. The Economist reports this week that, looking across all major countries over the past several decades, there were 220 instances in which a year of positive growth was followed by one of contraction. In its April forecasts during the growth year, the International Monetary Fund did not anticipate a coming recession on a single occasion!
Market signals should be taken especially seriously when they are long-lasting and coming from many markets, as is the case with current indications that inflation will not reach target levels within a decade in the United States, Europe or Japan. Especially ominous are moments when news fails to rally markets as would be expected such as with the U.S. stock market and Friday’s strong employment report or the decline of oil prices in the face of heightened Middle East tensions.
Last week we saw huge negative movements in Chinese markets and a large foreign market response. While it certainly could be the case that the Chinese developments reflect a combination of market psychology and clumsy policy responses, and that the strong response of world markets is an example of transient contagion, I doubt it.
Over the past year, about 20 percent of China’s growth as reported in its official statistics has come from its financial-services sector, which has mushroomed to the point where it is about as large relative to national GDP as in Britain, and Chinese debt levels are extraordinarily high. This is hardly a case of healthy or sustainable growth.
In recent years, China’s growth has come heavily from massive infrastructure investment; indeed, China put in place more cement and concrete between 2011 and 2013 than the United States did in the whole of the 20th century. This growth, too, is unsustainable, and even if it is replaced by domestic services, China’s contribution to demand for global commodities will fall way off.
Experience suggests that the best indicators of a country’s economic prospects are the decisions that its citizens make about keeping capital at home or exporting it abroad. The reason the renminbi is under pressure is that Chinese citizens are extremely eager to move their money overseas. But for the substantial recent depletion of China’s reserves, the renminbi would already have substantially depreciated.
Traditionally, international developments have had only a limited impact on the U.S. and European economies because their impact could be offset by monetary policy actions. Thus, the U.S. economy grew robustly through the Asian financial crisis as the Fed brought interest rates down. With rates essentially at zero in the industrial countries, however, this option is no longer available, and foreign economic problems are likely to have much more direct effects on economic performance.
Because of China’s scale, its potential volatility and the limited room for conventional monetary maneuvers, the global risk to domestic economic performance in the United States, Europe and many emerging markets is as great as any time I can remember. It is time for policymakers to hope for the best and plan for the worst.
- See more at: http://larrysummers.com/2016/01/11/heed-the-fears-of-the-financial-markets/#sthash.EGH2hcYh.dpuf
Thank you for that post.
The share price of the I fund seems to be off compared the EFA
Todays share price of 23.3206
Yesterday's price of 23.5576
EFA was down 1.65% today, so I was thinking I fund share price of
23.1689.
Just my observation.
Will the Market Makers do this?
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/31/why-2015-could-have-this-rare-market-ending.html
This board has some good market information.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Abet-Chichi2-1804/
Clive Maund: THE GREAT TRAIN WRECK OF 2016...
* December 13, 2015
Today we are going to review irrefutable evidence that a slow motion train wreck is already well underway across global markets, that will end with the last wagons on the train, the S&P500 index and the Dow Jones Industrials, disappearing into the abyss right after their immediate predecessors.
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3653
Market's Current Outlook
By Tom Bowley
* December 11, 2015
http://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2015/12/futures-tank-bears-have-a-big-opportunity.html
->The ‘candlesticks man’ says he’s not buying stocks
Multiple ‘bearish engulfing’ patterns at resistance send bearish message for S&P 500
By
Tomi
Kilgore
Reporter
When Steve Nison says candlestick charts are telling him not to buy stocks, people might want to listen.
Nison is widely known as the person who introduced candlesticks to the West. He has an M.B.A. in finance, but he started focusing on technical analysis — more than 30 years ago while at brokerage E.F. Hutton. In the late 1980s, while at Merrill Lynch, Nison met a Japanese broker who used terms like “doji” and “harami” in conversations with clients. Intrigued, he wrote a short article for Futures magazine on the more than 200-year-old Japanese technique in 1989.
Now candlestick charts — which include information about an investment’s movement during a trading day, rather than just its closing price — are standard on most charting services, and many Western chartists call them their preferred way of mapping the market.
Read: 7 key candlestick reversal patterns
more @ http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-candlesticks-man-says-hes-not-buying-stocks-2015-12-01
TY for the charts.
Investors will get a closer look at Fed thinking Wednesday at 2 p.m. when the Fed Open Market Committee releases the minutes from its July meeting.
TSP moves to expand investment, withdrawal choices.
By Eric Yoder July 27 ?
More options for investing and withdrawing retirement savings are planned for federal employees and retirees, including the freedom to invest in funds other than those offered by the Thrift Savings Plan itself.
The TSP’s governing board on Monday endorsed opening a “window” through which account holders could invest in a wide range of mutual funds, as well as new options for taking withdrawals both while still employed and after retiring or leaving for other reasons.
The moves would modernize the program and respond to demand from investors, many of whom abandon the program after they leave the government by transferring their money to IRAs that offer more flexibility.
The changes, long under consideration, were previewed two months ago at a briefing the TSP held for the board and an outside advisory group. The board on Monday gave formal approval to pursue them, although in the case of the investment window, the approval was contingent on seeing further details.
Both changes are long-term projects that likely would take more than a year to carry out. While a law creating authority for an investment window passed in 2009, expanding the withdrawal options further would require new legislation to pass even before the implementation process could begin.
The TSP is a 401(k)-style retirement savings program for federal and military personnel and retirees that as of the end of June held $455 billion in assets.
The TSP presented to the board a report spurred by a finding that 41 percent of investors who left the government in 2012 transferred their money out of the TSP within a year, rather than leaving it in place as is allowed. At the May briefing, officials added that percentage since has increased to 55.
TSP executive director Greg Long said that by transferring the money out, account holders are giving up the low administrative fees they pay in the TSP and paying much higher fees to the IRA provider.
“These are big dollar amounts generally going into IRAs,” he said. “We have an advantageous design, yet we have a substantial amount of dollars leaving to what appears to be a less advantageous design.”
He added: “It’s not about asset accumulation [in the TSP]. I don’t care about that. What I care about is outcome” for investors who end up paying more in account fees outside the program.
Of those who transferred their money to other institutions, 27 percent “cited a desire for additional withdrawal flexibility as a motivating factor,” the report said, adding that those who do so tend to be among those with the largest accounts.
The TSP wants to allow investors to make multiple withdrawals after separation, in contrast to the current policy under which only one partial withdrawal is allowed and a second withdrawal must apply to the remaining balance. Withdrawals can be made as lump sums, in equal monthly amounts, as an annuity, or in a combination.
Further, investors could make multiple withdrawals after age 59 ½ without a tax penalty while still working. Currently only one is allowed, and taking one means that only one post-separation withdrawal is allowed, for the entire balance.
The TSP meanwhile offers far fewer investment funds than are available through other types of accounts: five investment funds tracking broad stock and bond market indexes and five “lifecycle” funds that mix investments in the underlying funds in ratios that vary according to the projected withdrawal date.
In 2008 and 2013 polls, about two-fifths of TSP account holders said that allowing outside investments would improve the program, and there is a “vocal minority” who advocate for it strongly, the report said.
About 30 percent of 401(k) plans have such features, said Veronica Mance, a policy and research officer, although in practice only about 1 percent of their participants actually use them. “The numbers of people who say what they want is different from what they do,” she said.
Long added that creating the window is a “close call” policy decision given the increased complexity, the higher overhead cost to investors and the risk they will make poor decisions. But the option would respond to a demand and should help keep more participants in the program after they leave government, he said.
The TSP envisions issuing a contract to a large mutual fund provider, which would allow investors to steer money into any of its offerings, although not into those of other financial firms.
Several board members stressed that both sets of changes will require technical changes as well as an educational campaign for investors, while asking for more specifics on the investment window — which Long promised to produce. Under prior plans, there would be a minimum on investments made through the window, investors would be limited to a percentage, possibly 25 percent, of their total accounts in outside investments, and those who use the window would pay a fee.
Long agreed that the projects would require a high level of coordination, and that another change under consideration, adding automated or personal investment advice, also would be in the mix if approved. The TSP continues to study that idea and did not have a proposal ready for a board vote Monday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2015/07/27/tsp-moves-to-expand-investment-withdrawal-choices/
Looks like the guy from your link was spot on.
Thinking of getting a subscription.
Thanks for the posts
Thanks for the link
Surprise commodity winner could be ‘the new gold’
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101637496
Five cents says you can't name April's best-performing commodity.
Nickel soared 15.2 percent in April, making it the month's best performer in the S&P GSCI, the widely followed commodity index. In fact, with a 32 percent gain this year, nickel is outperforming every other one of the S&P GSCI's 24 components with the exception of coffee (which has perked up more than 80 percent this year).
Why is nickel, an industrial metal used in the production of stainless steel, shining so bright?
The rise can largely be pinned to Indonesia, which has issued a ban on nickel exports in attempt to foster Indonesian industry. This is no small matter, because according to the U.S. Geological Survey, Indonesia tied the Philippines for the highest nickel mine production in 2013, providing 18 percent of the world's supply.
"If you think about Indonesia as the biggest producer, having caught up to the Philippines, it's taking a lot of nickel off the market," said Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "In a way, it's been a battle between the Indonesian export ban and Chinese ebbing demand. But slowing Chinese demand is losing this battle. ... Chinese consumption is still enormous."
More recently, there have been concerns about further embargoes on Russia, which is also a exporter of nickel. That's why George Gero of RBC Capital Markets doesn't see nickel sliding anytime soon.
"I think all metals have some Russian concerns, so tight markets may keep prices up, especially due to headline traders who quickly jump up and down," Gero told CNBC.com. "Nickel could see some profit-taking, but there are few willing sellers now."
Either way, the surge in nickel futures has clearly drawn attention to the often-overlooked metal.
"There is certainly more interest in nickel now," Gunzberg said. "When a commodity's price starts to increase, nothing starts to draw attention like that, because when a commodity's inventories are in a situation of either excess or shortage, it generally takes a while for the inventory situation to switch."
Gunzberg goes so far as to say that nickel "is almost like the new gold of 2014," because of the way prices are getting squeezed.
"When you look at gold and the bull run that gold had as it was getting taken off the market by central banks and ETFs," there's a parallel in nickel's sudden imbalance of supply and demand.
Another similarity Gunzberg notes is that while gold has long been used as collateral for loans, in China, industrial metals have started to be used as collateral.
Gero points out that not only is there more interest in nickel due to the price surge, but it had even lead some traders to take positions in other industrial metals, such as palladium.
At this point, regardless of whether late buyers will enjoy gains or are simply getting nickeled and dimed, Gunzberg cheers any growing awareness of industrial metals.
"Nickel really does play a major role in our everyday lives. From construction, to mobile phones, to metal equipment, to food preparation equipment, this is something that's used across the board," Gunzberg said. "It's something that's highly valued because of its corrosion resistance."
It's even used in the Stanley Cup, she points out. The traveling trophy is made largely of silver, but it's a bit of added nickel gives the hockey prize its requisite strength.
Surprise commodity winner could be ‘the new gold’
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101637496
Five cents says you can't name April's best-performing commodity.
Nickel soared 15.2 percent in April, making it the month's best performer in the S&P GSCI, the widely followed commodity index. In fact, with a 32 percent gain this year, nickel is outperforming every other one of the S&P GSCI's 24 components with the exception of coffee (which has perked up more than 80 percent this year).
Why is nickel, an industrial metal used in the production of stainless steel, shining so bright?
The rise can largely be pinned to Indonesia, which has issued a ban on nickel exports in attempt to foster Indonesian industry. This is no small matter, because according to the U.S. Geological Survey, Indonesia tied the Philippines for the highest nickel mine production in 2013, providing 18 percent of the world's supply.
"If you think about Indonesia as the biggest producer, having caught up to the Philippines, it's taking a lot of nickel off the market," said Jodie Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "In a way, it's been a battle between the Indonesian export ban and Chinese ebbing demand. But slowing Chinese demand is losing this battle. ... Chinese consumption is still enormous."
More recently, there have been concerns about further embargoes on Russia, which is also a exporter of nickel. That's why George Gero of RBC Capital Markets doesn't see nickel sliding anytime soon.
"I think all metals have some Russian concerns, so tight markets may keep prices up, especially due to headline traders who quickly jump up and down," Gero told CNBC.com. "Nickel could see some profit-taking, but there are few willing sellers now."
Either way, the surge in nickel futures has clearly drawn attention to the often-overlooked metal.
"There is certainly more interest in nickel now," Gunzberg said. "When a commodity's price starts to increase, nothing starts to draw attention like that, because when a commodity's inventories are in a situation of either excess or shortage, it generally takes a while for the inventory situation to switch."
Gunzberg goes so far as to say that nickel "is almost like the new gold of 2014," because of the way prices are getting squeezed.
"When you look at gold and the bull run that gold had as it was getting taken off the market by central banks and ETFs," there's a parallel in nickel's sudden imbalance of supply and demand.
Another similarity Gunzberg notes is that while gold has long been used as collateral for loans, in China, industrial metals have started to be used as collateral.
Gero points out that not only is there more interest in nickel due to the price surge, but it had even lead some traders to take positions in other industrial metals, such as palladium.
At this point, regardless of whether late buyers will enjoy gains or are simply getting nickeled and dimed, Gunzberg cheers any growing awareness of industrial metals.
"Nickel really does play a major role in our everyday lives. From construction, to mobile phones, to metal equipment, to food preparation equipment, this is something that's used across the board," Gunzberg said. "It's something that's highly valued because of its corrosion resistance."
It's even used in the Stanley Cup, she points out. The traveling trophy is made largely of silver, but it's a bit of added nickel gives the hockey prize its requisite strength.
Is the U.S. stock market rigged?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-the-us-stock-market-rigged/
Is the U.S. stock market rigged?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-the-us-stock-market-rigged/
Is the U.S. stock market rigged?
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/is-the-us-stock-market-rigged/
Another great week for you! Enjoy the weekend.
Got the goal from the ibox
Better then half way to your goal #1 GREAT JOB!