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Hi Joe, Yes, probably late this evening. Right now I'm off to one of my apartment properties.
We should get a PR this week or early next week announcing the date for the Q1 earnings release and day/time for the cc. My guess is either May 12 (Friday) or May 15 (Monday).
They really do need to do something to drum up some buyers for the stock. They have actually been in the news a lot and issued some really good informational PRs like the record order one.
But what they obviously haven't done is talk to their friends and neighbors and coworkers and golf buddies and and and AND tell them to buy shares! Just one single buyer would help at this point. If I were the IR guy, I would be embarrassed. If I were the CEO I would be embarrassed. If I were joe bloe employee I would be embarrassed. But I'm not.
Thanks for posting that link. I watched all 24 minutes. Not sure what to think.
I give up. You missed the entire point of my reply.
Here in central Wisconsin, every 7 year old boy and girl has already fired a real gun, often times 30-06 deer rifles or .223 plinkers or 12ga shotguns. You can legally hunt deer as a 7 year old if in the company of an adult.
And the above paragraph is exactly why the Gander Mtn effort failed and why Mod Round can never work in a state where everyone can go and shoot real guns whenever they want.
Put these MR sites in big city tourist destinations.
EVERY SINGLE TIME our family hosts friends and family members from China, guess what EVERY ONE of them wants to do immediately...yes, shoot my guns! So we grab a couple handguns and rifles and shotguns and some targets and clay pigeons and go out to the "back 40" and have a blast and take about 1000 pictures. The other thing they will do for hours is stare at the guns on the racks in the local gun shops. They are in awe of the fact that any US Citizen can walk in and buy them.
USA USA USA
Bill, There is tons of money out there. MR will have no issue raising as much as they want. VirTra is not in a mess. They get paid CASH for each system sold to MR. While this 10k is bad, if they had about 4 locations they would be break-even on a cash flow basis.
MR is just a distraction for VTSI shareholders. Best case, it gooses earnings a bit in a few years. Worse case, it costs VirTra nothing. It is a reasonable thing for VirTra to support. Their agreement is heavily skewed in favor of VirTra.
That is why I think this works well in Las Vegas but not so well in Peoria, AZ. They need to tweak their format for sites like Peoria, or simply not open there.
Other places the current format would work great are Tokyo and Shanghai and Beijing and Singapore. In the US, maybe Reno, Dallas, Manhattan, Wash DC, Seattle.
No Bill, we (me and you) are NOT Modern Round shareholders. VirTra does own about 9.7% of Modern Round but that is a tiny stake worth less than nothing. Furthermore, there are 3 individuals who own about 90% of Modern Round. Actually the one guy that owns 80% is THE owner, the only one that matters. It is his baby.
You are also very wrong about Las Vegas. It will open. The owner of Modern Round can either pony up more money himself or raise it externally and I am sure this has already happened. And yes, the result might be to dilute VirTra's stake a bit but I would argue that is ok. And dilution might not be allowed due to the leverage.
There are also some pretty promising signs with Modern Round if you read the 10k. I also believe the most promising sign is that they were/are smart enough to study and tweak what is happening in Peoria so as to improve results at the upcoming new locations. In other words they are being very cautious in their rollout. But it is proceeding.
My only point is that it isn't all gloom and doom though if Mod Round stock was freely traded I would not be a buyer.
Mod Round 10k came out Friday. "Dark" is a good word for it. My uninformed opinion is it is a disaster with respect to the amount of revenue generated by the Peoria site. I would not be able to nail the doors shut fast enough if I was the owner. Be happy we are VTSI owners and not Modern Round owners.
That said, a LV location could do really well with this upscale format. Peoria - not.
It is really difficult for me to believe that no one wants to buy VTSI shares at this level. I added 2k today which is only slightly better than none. But something.
At this point, it seems clear the company will not be using their authorized buyback. Seems they are more focused on niche acquisitions. Just a vibe and a guess.
I started buying some shares today. Just a start and I'm happy to be a shareholder. Stock does seem destined to trade lower before higher but no one can know for sure.
Thank you for the detailed explanation dia76. That is very helpful.
I will never understand enough about the science in order to make a judgment but that will not stop me from buying some shares.
Although in thinking about it further, it sort of sounds like "the poor mans cancer treatment". Not a bad thing since there are many more poor cancer patients and potential patients than rich ones.
Wow Ruffie, sort of neat from my perspective to learn that you are a HTBX shareholder! I definitely value your opinion on it. I am sort of clueless about these little drug development companies but I like how they can move around for no apparent reasons and then jump up or down on seemingly meaningless news/updates. I also do a decent job of trading them without emotion because I neither care about them or trust them. Weird, eh.
What do you mean by off the shelf business model?
Hi Joe, You got exactly to the heart of the issue with your post. I expect Q3 and Q4 to come in as the company stated in their press release. I own some shares now but sold over half in the 10s/11s/12s. I will probably add more before the Q3 report and then more after the Q3 report. I really don't have a good feel for how the stock will react. Based on the financials it is so undervalued as to be silly.
Good discussion over on the Investor Village message board. It is free. Hopeful is an awesome person and poster. A retired accounting professor.
I just cannot understand how anyone could day trade or short-term trade or even swing trade a stock like VTSI where volume is so low and the spread so large. Seems impossible to me but I'm sure you are right that some out there do do it.
There are so many other stocks where it is easy to do that sort of thing. My favorites are ones like BAC and BP. Tons of volume and fairly well behaved yet do move around enough.
CNAT - Congrats on your profits. I feel sort of stupid that I didn't buy some call contracts although I still might. I do own a ton (for me) of shares and mess around trading a small number of them to get my "trading fix." This week was spectacular, bought some shares late day on Monday or Tuesday at 6.02 and sold those today at 7.21. But again, it is more for entertainment than anything else as I still have a ton of shares in the 1.55 to 1.75 range and will hold most of those until $20 later this year....I hope. Then some I will hold forever just in case they really do have a drug that works and gets approved and generates revenue.
The other one I really like (and own some) is NAII. My plan is to buy in heavy when they announce Q3 later this month or early May.
Ruffie, If you are smart enough and savvy enough to actually make money trading in NUGT then you really are ...well - smart and savvy. 99% of the people/funds messing with stuff like NUGT are doing so in order to hedge something and 98% of them fail miserably.
The whole problem with taking out this seller is no one (except the seller) knows how many shares are really for sale. If I new for a FACT that it was only the 8000 or so at the 2.20 ASK I would buy them in a heartbeat. Also, if I knew the seller would not go lower than 2.20 I would also buy a bunch since I would know this is about the best price available.
In June or July we are all going to look back and wonder why we didn't buy more at this price.
I do think Q1 report will be good and certainly stronger than last years Q2/3/4. However, it is unlikely to be as strong as last year's grand salami of a Q1.
The great thing this year is that the Q2, Q3, Q4 comparisons will be easy to beat and 20% YOY growth should be easy for 2017 as well.
If nothing goofy happens, my guess is the stock starts trending upward in late May. And that is only 6 weeks away! I'm with you on continuing to nibble.
A friend of mine who is also a shareholder said something interesting today that I hadn't really thought about but once he said it I certainly agree.
Doesn't it feel like the calm before the (good) storm? It is very quiet yet the company is acting extremely confidently. Uplist to Nasdaq, SEC company, 20% growth and all this in the face of a new administration that is going to pump a ton of money into the military and customs and enforcement.
It simply feels like this thing (VTSI) is going to explode upward for all the right reasons .... and maybe soon. Just a feeling.
Not sure I ever had a day in any stock on any exchange where I accounted for 100% of the volume. I first bought 500 shares in one account and then bought 1600 shares in another. Now both accounts have a nice round number in them.
I was really tempted to just keep buying to see how many shares are really for sale in the 2.20s....but I didn't.
The fact they located the first one where they did was not exactly a bright move. It is likely the Las Vegas one will do much better given the format they have chosen to follow.
A site like Peoria needs $5mil per year in revenue to break even on a cash flow basis and have a small GAAP net loss.
Modern Round is late with their 10k, it was due at the end of March and they filed for an extension. That report will tell us whether or not Oct/Nov/Dec came in at the $1.5 - $1.8mil in revenue that it darn well better have. My guess is it did not and Mod Round is scrambling to find money to fund the next 3 sites. Big struggle it appears to me.
All that said, MR is just noise. VTSI is a buy.
Schneid, If you do not understand the necessity and value in 1/3/5/10 year business plans then you have never either owned a business or run a business or worked for a business.
Every company darn well better have a plan for this week, this month, the next 6 months, this year, next year, and 3 and 5 years out. I spent plenty of years within a $120mil business unit at Honeywell where even the most typical of new product development project took 2 or 3 years to complete and roadmaps went out beyond a decade. Revenue and earnings targets and projections went out about 5 years. And guess what, they were met - ALWAYS. Same thing at Seagate and other places I have worked, both public and private.
Perhaps in your post you were not referring to business plans but instead to analyst projections of revenue and earnings for a company. I would also disagree if that was your position since those too have tremendous value both for the company and the analyst firms and potential investors. Two way street for each party.
There is no way anyone can own a stock without projecting numbers over the next 3 months, 6 months and maybe 1 or 2 years. It all depends on motivations and timeframes and ownership goals.
With VirTra, forward projections are incredibly easy. They have told us point blank to never project one single quarter over others due to lumpiness and instead have told us to look at numbers and performance on a year over year annual basis. They have churned out year after year of increasing revenue and earnings and have guided to continued 20%+ annual growth. It is very easy (and accurate) to project that over the next several years. If you aren't doing this, then you have no business owning this stock or any stock.
Sorry, but I just never read anything as misguided as your previous post.
It was actually the link in guntherfd's post earlier today.
That is about the only part of the deal I do like!
Nice find on the Las Vegas site. That location will generate some big numbers.
Sorry RStevens. My intent was not to jump down your throat. My written words always come across as too harsh, I need to work on that.
You are right with your totals. I'll bet if you shoot that question to IR Larry you will get the answer. Lots of possibilities.
I'm just happy he still owns a big chunk....but not too big a chunk.
That's how fake news gets started. RStevens, please read the footnote near the top of page 31 on the year end report. The 6% number you quoted does NOT include 500,000 shares of common stock held by a custodian for the benefit of Mr. Ferris' children.
It will be interesting to follow that 500,000 number in future reports to see if the kids want to keep owning the stock.
I just think it is someone unwinding a relatively large position. Likely someone who doesn't pay very close attention to what is happening with the company. Perhaps someone who needs the money for something else later this year. Perhaps it is simply Bill who wants to cash out before he cashes out.
What I find silly is that if this seller had even slightly more patience they could get out at 2.50 or 2.60. Just move the ASK to 2.50 and wait. The buyers will come. Instead, this silly seller tends to chase a bit.
None of it really matters with this volume though. I do wish the company would come in and wipe out all the sellers and support it at 2.60 or 2.70 about where it was at the RS.
I would also love to attend and should really just make it a priority and do so. If only they would do it in January or February or even December.
Maybe, maybe not. I just bought another 3k shares and there was nothing for sale between 2.15 and 2.29 so I ended up getting a few of the 2.29 shares.
I think there are now enough eyes on this one that even if it does dip, there isn't going to be any volume behind it and it is likely to rebound quickly. Q1 is complete (though not yet reported) and we know that Q2/3/4 are very likely to be better than 2016. It also seems a pretty safe bet that this is a 20 - 30% grower each year for the next 5 - 10 years. That will mint a bunch of millionaires. All that is required is a bit of patience, perhaps only a couple months.
I finally had a chance to listen to today's cc. Overall it was really good both in content/tone/attitude. Any shareholder or potential shareholder that didn't like it simply doesn't have a clue.
I have listened to hundreds of these over the years and this one was well done.
The only place they got too cute was with using the "as soon as possible" phrase. They should have simply said "we anticipate completion in Q3" or "Q4." (SEC listing). Likewise with the uplist, just tell us the exact exchange and approximate timeframe, they certainly know both right now.
While it would have been nice to hear a 2017 revenue range, they were clearly guiding to 20%+ growth and accelerating growth.
Whoever is selling shares is being very short-sighted. They will regret it in less than a year.
I haven't a clue about the stock price today, but I am certain it will be much higher within 12 months. 20% YOY growth is extremely rare. Some companies can do it for 2 or 3 years in a row but no one can do it for 10 years in a row or 20 or more. It simply does not happen. 20% YOY growth will make shareholders wealthy.
Seems to me 2016 was a foundational year. Big investments in the company. 2017 is set up for another 20% year and 2018 likely even better. Revenue and Earnings comparisons for Q2/3/4 will be super easy. The company can buy some shares starting Tuesday.
I sorta see this treading water at about 2.20 - 2.50 until mid-Summer. Then the rise begins. It is now inevitable. Enjoy.
It (todays share price) doesn't matter.
I would further argue that tomorrow am's Q4 earnings announcement doesn't matter either. Why? Because we already know the gist of it. They will announce (correctly) that 2016 was a record year with roughly 20% growth over 2015 and they are in pristine financial shape with a nice cash pile and no debt.
The announcement earlier this week was more significant since it signals the business continues to grow and that 2017 is likely to be even better than 2016.
All the late day dip today proved was there is still a nervous nellie seller and buyers continue to sit on their wallets.
I am looking forward to the cc tomorrow though I will be off-grid much of the day. The walleyes are running!
This is all likely 1 seller who started with 200k to 500k shares and simply wants out. They should run out of shares soon. Nice opportunity for someone to buy a chunk! I'm tempted....but not tempted enough. sigh
Very true Schneid.
My guess is they will not buy back any shares. If they spend any money, it will be on some niche acquisitions. And I would be 1000% in favor of accretive and smart acquisitions.
Bill, Go ahead and try to buy $1million worth of VTSI stock over the next couple months> Then let me know if you still think it would not impact stock price.
I'm with you on your Modern Round thinking.
I'm also with a few of you who might not believe any boughtback shares will be retired. It is actually more rare than you think for a company to actually retire the shares. PII did it. STX did it. Many do, but many don't.
I do not believe VirTra has boughtback even one share yet.
On Friday we will learn if they boughtback any in Q4.
Hi ztect, I like your questions. Well done. I took a different approach since I hoped others would have some very specific questions.
I submitted a request to Larry a couple weeks ago. I basically asked that Ferris talk a bit about his vision for the company and what the company will look like in 3 years and 5 years. I asked that he talk about long range goals, big picture stuff.
I also made it know that I think Modern Round has already failed. They have not announced a date for site 2. They have a negative book value. Site 1 is not close to the $5mil rev annual run rate necessary to support itself. I think it can be saved with some tweaks to format but will they be smart enough to do it. Not sure this will be addressed.
Good point Cincy but I think that the Q4 announcement is now less important simply because the market is generally forward looking rather than backward looking.
The fact they signed a record dollar amount of contracts in Q1 means that Q3 and Q4 this year (2017) are likely to be really really good.
Also, don't forget they did talk about Q4 indirectly in the Q3 announcement in mid-November when Q4 was half done. They sounded pretty bullish then. If I remember right "continued strong momentum" or similar was mentioned.
Q4 will be at least decent and mean that 2016 was 20% or more above 2015. We now have some clarity about 2017 (better than 2016).
I am just tickled pink that they decided to issue a PR to tell us that all is well. This means they actually do pay attention to stock price.
If you do not like VTSI or are short VTSI or simply do not want VTSI to go up, then the fact the stock went up 20% on no volume should actually terrify you. Sellers are gone. There are not any shares for sale.
Sure, there aren't any buyers either, but that will happen. All the numbers and performance is good enough and enough sizzle in the sector that this will eventually pop big.
Knock me over with a feather. These guys actually are aware of what they are doing to shareholders. This is the first time EVER that they have used the excuse of an order to generate a PR in which to sooth and comfort the investing community!
Maybe there is hope for Ferris?
While the numbers in the PR are nice, I find it far more significant that they went to the trouble to do this - issue the PR to tell us "All is Well."