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Blue, I am honored and humbled that you have made this request of me. However, I hope you understand that I could not get personally involved, in any manner in any other endeavor such as that, as it could be construed as a conflict of interest on my part.
In order to maintain neutrality and impartiality, I have to even watch what I say on these forums. which, is why I do not post like I use to and when I do it is tempered and about more current events because I still am a shareholder, rather than past issues that could be considered as part of the litigation. Or I just comment on someone's post like I am doing here.
So, I hope you understand. What I can say, is the litigation is a matter of public record, which also contains the name of the firm. I can not stop someone from looking up that information and making inquiries.
If you know what I mean?
Doog, your findings were accurate. what you copied and pasted earlier is from the latest filing. It appears the company is now back peddling on any advance of Regabatin.
10bag, that boat has long sailed. people forgot it was not just the March 19th deadline, they also had to obtain that market cap and hold it for 10 consecutive days.
Our only hope is that they filed for an extension within the deadline period and they are/were/will be granted one.
Fabius, Honestly, I have no clue what the requirements are and the time constraints. is filing a for an extension the last day considered timely filed? I have no clue, this is beyond anything I have encountered before. Hence why I am trying to find the appropriate postings and regulations.
I am actually surprised no one commented on the post from the end of last week concerning NASDAQ compliance.
Based on what I can see, there is no way to meet compliance at this juncture. The company needed to meet the 35 million market cap and sustain that level for at least 10 days prior to March 19th.
Now, the only option is the company applying for an extension. One would assume they did. However the lack of announcing that they did is disconcerting.
So, does anyone know of where that information can be searched? I could find nothing through SEC website. That information should be public knowledge somewhere.
So today was last day for compliance? the company needs to regain the market cap of 35 million for 10 consecutive days by March 19th. only way to get 10 consecutive days is by being at 35 million March 9th to 19th.
so, did they ask for the extension? this requirement is separate from the June 4th requirement of $1 per share.5550(b)2 and 5550(a)2 Mopar pointed out they are two separate sections in the law.
Angelo, and based on what you said, you think Lawyers are the bad guys? just saying. LOL The MM's are rotten.
Tilator, I can not give legal advice, but can offer a personal opinion. My "personal" opinion is that you should cease talk of that nature. anytime a group of people work together in order to facilitate or effect the price, that "group" needs to register. I would refrain from asking a group of people to do the same thing at the same time in order to move the price in any direction.
just something to think about.
Angelo, I would agree but that is assuming MNK actually penetrates the market. I personally am really wondering about MNK's commitment and effort they are putting forward.
Angelo, Thanks for that tip. I just got converted over to that from Scottrade. Monday was a fiasco and only some of my information migrated over. I am still waiting on some. It took me over 4 hours just to get in as I was supposed to be able to use my old account number as well as password and guess what? it didnt work! then trying to get someone on line was the wait. I must not have been the only one. I am in now but just barely finding my way around the site.
Tilator, inquiring minds want to know how you can buy at a fraction of a cent? I know I can not. I can only put a bid in for a whole cent.
Angelo, That seems to always be the problem. while that may be in the contract, IPCI does not seem to enforce it. I am sure there is a good faith clause. But, the company chooses not to cause waves. They could have forced the issue with PAR when they waited over a year to finally launch the remaining doses of Focalin. Even fighting the FDA when they gave approval and took it away. They had legal recourse against the FDA, but didn't want to antagonize them from what they told me. LOL. I guess all these approvals they have received is not upsetting them?
Blue, They never broke it down and stated. They only stated that the revenue was mostly all from PAR. so that leads one to believe that the Seroquel revenue was negligible.
Which is why I said I felt if anything out of the numbers, the script count may be accurate. scripts of only 549, even if that number actually means 5,490. is disgraceful and meaningless to contribute to over all revenue.
I personally feel we can use that, if nothing else, to gauge market penetration. until that number is in the thousands or ten thousands, we will not be seeing any meaningful revenue from it. Which, knowing MNK wants to get rid of its generic business, makes me wonder just how committed they are to finding buyers.
I find it difficult to believe that after 9 months they can not penetrate the market any further. as small as what they are, they should be able to be competitive with larger operations. They have little to no overhead.
Angelo, Thanks for the work you do on the spreadsheet. I for one, know the numbers may be skewed in some manner, but I can not believe they are totally useless. at the very least I think the scripts can be used as an indicator of direction.
with the company reporting almost nil income from Seroquel, I actually can believe they are only selling 500 scripts at this point. so its something.
Tilator, You may have to signup for the site. I had known someone else had that same issue. I forwarded them a link off the site and they could not access additional pages because they were not a member.
Its painless to register. So far they haven't sold my contact information to third parties so you do not get a lot of junk.
Not sure where everyone is getting the idea that the recent news means Purdue is pulling back from Oxy or it will help us in our litigation against them?
what the article stated was "they intend to pull back sales reps" from visiting doctors. This just means to me they are not going to as aggressively sell it. not that they will stop selling it or want to cut back on selling it.
with all the lawsuits out there, it makes sense they now want to handle questions doctors have in house rather than have 500 different people give out potentially 500 different answers.
The one benefit I see out of this is it gives competitors a leg up to start visiting doctors and possibly break into the market. but I do not see this in anyway as an indication of them pulling away from the drug.
weezhul, you know as well as I do that your comments are not accurate.
Doog, I have one to add to your list. I'm not sure how I could actually amend the list itself, so I will post it here and let you add it LOL.
The requirements allow for a waiver of a first time filer for NDA fee. Since we have to resubmit, are we going to be required to pay a filing fee this time when they resubmit for Rexista in August? If so, has those figures been taken into account with any projections given?
Doog, its total BS. I have no clue what happened the other week when we popped, other than speculative china deal or just outright decided to cover. But one thing is for sure, its the same old game playing.
They probably covered expecting imminent breaking news on China and covered. when that didnt happen they started shorting it again. they only seem to be able to play this one way and that is down.
clearly, someone expected something else why the covering? The company put out a overall great PR and ever since its been slowly walked down. contrary to the news in the PR. so its just games.
only thing that will help us s a news event and then we pop. but, then it will be the same old games until the next news event. they never allow real value to be built in. sad really. so, we just wait.
Fabius, Agreed! our price was hurt hard before the adcomn disaster. had it been traded more accurately we wouldnt be sitting at 80cent today.
It really irks me, that we sit at 80 cent with Podras. no value is built in. let them come out with bad news from the human study and watch us tank to 40 cents. its ridiculous.
build no speculative value into the stock but hammer it when negative news hits and only slightly improve it when good news hits.
Wimike, unfortunately, I can not have any direct communication with the company for obvious reasons LOL. The same reason why I have been restrained on my posts for some time.
Blue, I agree it needs to be cleared up ASAP. I personally have a lot of reservations about our CEO setting up what appears to be a new company and he just happens to be the CEO , founder and lead scientist of it.
As CEO of both entities he could easily sign deals granting that private company say 80% profit and IPCI 20% profit split. who would know? the deals are are always secret. therefore it would appear t be a conflict to setup a competitor or even partner company.
Unless, the end result is this new company becomes a wholly owned subsidiary of IPCI. then there are no conflicts. The fact all 3 company names are displayed on the board would indicate all three will be working together, we just do not know how yet. But if indeed Smart Pharmaceutical stays an independent private company. we as shareholders of IPCI have a problem.
so, Yes, I agree they need to PR this ASAP to clear up any misgivings.
Angelo, THANKS ! you get the gold star for the day for that tip! well I guess Scheilko does for the China find but you get the silver ! now I wonder if my browser will remember it? LOL
Angelo, I totally agree. I too think the china deal is for manufacturing and distribution for Glucho and Keppra in China and then see what else may come.
One thing I noticed is Shanghai Pharma just bought out a china distribution company for 1.2 billion in November. Smart Pharma just opened the manufacturing site in china. what is lacking? the drugs!
technically any of the approved drugs would be fair game. I also saw Shanghai announced Friday a 400 million dollar closed offering to private investors to be used for manufacturing and distribution endeavors. The only thing we do not know are the actual details and how much money upfront and if any went to IPCI.
I think its going to be good for IPCI but at this point we just dont know the details.
Scheilko, VERY interesting article. Too bad the headlines are for the Odidi. he seems to need to fill his ego again, instead of the headlines being for IPCI. It appears from the picture that IPCI is opening the plant.
Now I sure hope they PR this as I would love to know how they are planning on funding it and what they are planning on doing with it.
Doog, You overlooked one aspect. IPCI has to fight Purdue. You are correct the patent expires in 2019. however, Purdue sued IPCI. that placed a automatic 30 month stay. That stay would stay in effect until 2020 if IPCI didn't fight. This way they can fight and win and be able to launch as soon as practicable. That is why they continue to spend the money.
Doog you beat me to it. Its about time analyst brought their forecast in line with realistic expectation. That pie in the sky mentality of 20 million a year off seroquel was ridiculous. there are so many factors going into this it is crazy. But in the end it was everyone guess work. they would take take annual sales extrapolate out a 10% market saturation then use a wild 50/50 split. it was crazy in my thinking. I always said, do not expect more than around 5 to 6 million a year in revenue on each of the ANDA's. some could see more others closer to only 3 to to 4 million a year. but that would be it. then they would have fight to keep market share as pricing became competitive. But in the end, they would just accuse me of being a nay sayer or downer rather than the conservative which I actually am. oh well.
I do believe 2018 will be much better for us than we end this year. while the Adcomm hurt, there is still no real reason we are trading at these levels. That is due to the game playing. so with knowing that, I feel we will be in for a bounce in 2018. I for one have been looking at these levels as a Christmas gift and loading up. Maybe not the gift I was hoping to end the year with but, when given lemons, make lemonade. just 1 ANDA approval, just any positive update on Podras or even a good earning report which shows these quarter over quarter improvements, will at least get us back to the $1.25 level. which is at least a 75% increase from here. by September of next year Rexsita should be refiled, by the end of October, the case with Purdue will be settled which should pave the way for the green light in early 2019 which then should bring on the partnership. which, would get us to that $5 level we expected this year.
so, based on that, I say Happy New Year to all longs. look forward to 2018. lets put 2017 behind us, but learn from what it has taught us.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone. I think Wim has hit the nail on the head with this summation as to what to expect. I feel any partnership for Regabatin would just be icing. 2018 will be much better than 2017.
Fabius, do not expect normal stock behavior for this stock. LOL remember this is controlled by game players. we are at ridiculous low prices that is not justified. they just announced the remaining doses of Foclin being launched which will only help our revenue by the 2QE18 because of the quarter lag in reporting, and the stock went down 10% that day. come on now.
Appears we finally reached our bottom. there does seem to be support at the 73 to 74 cent level. Its about time as personally I feel we are way over sold.
Doog, you got a good handle of the issues at hand. That is why I say, I doubt we see much on the part of IPCI willing to settle. why should they? let the cards play out and assuming they prevail get awarded damages on top of everything else. but in the end, now its possible in early 2019 instead of tentative approval with other studies required we get a tentative approval only needing to ink a deal !
wimike, its difficult to say. we do not know all the intricacies. The Markman hearing is set for 4/10/18. After that time the judge can render a preliminary discussion and or decision on some of the motions. That hearing usually gives each side an indication on which way he is leaning. It is usually after that, t gives one side or the other an incentive to settle if they think they are going to lose.
However, in this case, the incentives may not be there. IPCI knows they are held up until September of next year anyway. (assuming a 9 month HAP study and it hasn't started yet) so IPCI does not have an incentive to settle early. especially if Purdue is willing to settle if IPCI gives them say 2% of profits for a certain number if years. at that point the only cost to either party to keep the case going is ongoing legal fees.
If however one prty gets the hunt that the judge is leaning towards damages payout then that may encourage Purdue to give up the fight, but as you see there are many facets involved here and it would be difficult to say what can or will or even should happen without all the answers. buts there are a lot if issues to consider so my original comments were based on the assumption that since the company dosent need to settle early, they dont have to the incentive to settle earlier.
Fabius, True compliance does have a time frame however I believe that comes in June. In arguendo lets say sales alone do not get us above the $1 mark, they have the ability to ask for an extension which I believe they go for 6 months, which takes us till the end of the year. At the very least, in that time frame we will have had updates on the HAP studies, re-submission of the application AND the end of October we have the trial for the patent infringement.
So between just those updates (assuming they would be positive) any one those should pop the price above the $1 mark assuming the manipulation has stopped.
personally, I do not see de-listing as being relevant, even if something happens to the generic sales and we do not obtain improved sales. plus in between there, we should be hearing of at least 1 ANDA approval, one would think.
Fabius, I don't necessarily agree with everything you said here.
The company SHOULD regain complain upon improving sales and CFP. show me one other company out there at CFP, which means they are earning at least $13 a million a year to equal their spending and not have a market cap of 35 million?
I think the problem is the manipulation. we are very over sold right now. there really is no reason we should be traded down as far as we are with the exception that is where the game players want it to be.
they want longs to get depressed, see massive red in the portfolio and then decide to sell off and take the loss. that is the only way they are going to make money.
remember, the shorts eventually need to cover. Its costing them more to borrow shares. You really think the share price is going to stay down on a company once they turn CFP? I personally do not think we need a huge event to turn things around. we just need ANY event.
lets face it, after the last QE report the stock shot up to $1.50 in after hours just showing improvement in revenue. the only thing that kept us down was the immediate bad news then of the offering.
just try and keep the faith. These prices I blame on the game players as much as the company at this point.
Angelo, Many thanks for keeping this spreadsheet updated. we may not be able to extrapolate the numbers into actual revenue figures but it gives us a good indication as to swings and momentum, and can somewhat guess based on 1st quarter earnings and use as a comparison.
Wimike, I agree, its been a very long time since the Odidi's have bought. matter of fact I d not recall them ever buying since I have owned in 2012. they acquired most through bonuses. and I do recall there was a swap once where their holding company sold and they bought direct but other than that I do not recall them ever really buying. But I was even thinking of any of the directors or senior staff. they could be in a black out period, we just do not know.
lets face it, We know the Purdue litigation is in negotiation, we do not know where. we know they should be trying to partner the two ANDA's, and possibly Regabatin, I doubt they are moving on anything Rexista at this point, so they could be in any negotiation that would block them. we just don't know.
That being said, there are other ways they could show they are trying to support share price and care about shareholders.
Doog, Thanks. I am still here and reading. I just need to curtail my posts to bare minimums and be careful to what I respond too. LOL
Fabius, sorry, but I can not shed any light as to the why. I do know there are black out periods where they can not trade due to negotiations. However, I can't say if they are currently in one or not? it depends where they are in the negotiation stage.