If Your In, Your In.
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And the Truth will Set you Free
The most interesting aspect of the trading in this stock is that for over the last two years I have read about how the MM's and the NS are responsible for the lack of SP stability. The endless stories of the billion short positions in the stock and the correlation to the VW story.
It always seemed silly to me that a stock whose 5 year history reflects only maybe 2.2 billion shares traded could have a billion of those shares in a NS position.
From a total dollar stand point, at lets say and average price of .02 over the five years, we are looking at $20 million dollars in short positions. And at .03 SP the shorts are holding a current advantage of $10 Million.
I mean if this was true, would you not think it would be allot more prudent to try to see the SP rise above the .04 mark to force these NS into a need to buy or cover their margin calls.
Hell, if this was true, we probably would only need to hit say .045 before these shorts would abandon all hope and go find another sand box to play in. I mean a $5 million dollar loss in any brokerage house today is enough to get you fired.
No I think that maybe the dirty rotten bastards you all have been talking about are probably each and everyone of those that have played the ,pump it and dump it game, or now we are going to call it the "prudent investor success strategy" (PISS) and sold the stock down the river for what, if you bought at the low and sold at the high you probably made 10s of thousand of $.
Well good for you, "Caveat Emptor". Your PT Barnum mentality has to date paid you well. Just remember you may be PISS ing away a great opportunity for everyone. I mean what is going to happen to the stock the next time you play your PISS.
I hope the real longs can understand the play and PISS on you.
Honesty is the Best Policy
I did not like the underlying theory behind your post, but I respect that you finally layed it out for the board to see. You had the ballz to say "here it is, deal with it". Too bad that there is a hand full of others that won't do the same, but we all know who they are.
This stock should be at .04 or higher (maybe as high as .06), but the pump and dumpster create doubt in the minds of the shorts, and the lack of a stable SP keeps the weak kneed out all together.
Hopefully, you don't have any time left to apply your strategy and the JV announcement will move the stock without your games.
Actually, some of us longs probably should thank you because one of your pumps over the years convince us to buy in initially. When this stock hits, we are not going to care. Each of us must live with the things that define us in life.
This play is either going to hit or miss based on the JV and IMO the time for this determination continues to contract. I for one, am willing to wait and see, and deep down I hope those of you that play the pump and dump game get caught on the outside looking in. That probably make me a shallow human being, but I guess I can live with that.
There is a Time and a Place
To Everything
There is a season
And a time to every purpose, under Heaven
A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep
A time to build up,a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together
The pumpers are working to establish a time table from the limited availablility of information which is neither based on factual or historic information nor sound investment strategies.
Again we, (the longs)cannot establish a solid base when we have those who continue to spout off baseless comments that will not result in any short term stability in the SP. As longs, we only win on the announcement of the JV, on a short term basis, and production on the long term basis.
A discussion of reasons and even speculation of time tables BASED ON FACT, might be appropriate, but to pump the shares only to have them fall again, upon the missed expectations, underminds us all. To that end;
IMHO, The SEC filing suggest a move by the Company to provided better transparancy to the market (which we have as SH been asking for) of the current conditions and results of operations. It does not define a time table per se. Nor does it establish different guidelines for reporting for the Company. It is a sign that manangement believes that there is possible benefits of getting the EDGAR db reporting established at this time.
It serves us all well, to not read anything further into it at this time.
If your in, Your IN
Dont let your Impatients Bite You
LONDON (PROACTIVE INVESTORS) - September 1, 2010
Mariana Resources (LON:MARL) and Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) have now signed a definitive agreement in respect of their proposed joint venture to explore the SCM Mariana Area (SCM), which covers 92,000km² in north-central Chile. The terms of the joint venture were initially agreed back in April 2010, when the parties signed a letter of intent.
Chile JVs can take a while to close. These are major players and the agreement took six months.
We have a legal team of what? TWO.
We don't have to like it, but this thing just might take a little time before we get a definitive agreement.
Let talk about expectations
Since last year I have followed the pumpers and dumpers in this stock and the ratcheted expectations about the payoff and timing of corporate actions. I follow MP too, and see the same, mostly from the same posters.
While I AGREE with the possibility of 500% returns on our investments in the short term, (less than three months) the long term returns IMO are more in line with the expectations currently batted around.
The possibility of any JV needs to be tempered with the reality of the structure of the JV. To that point, I submit the following as only an example of current mining trends in Chile.
FOX BUSINESS - On August 24th, 2010 Codelco (Chile Ntl Copper/mining)entered into a JV with Antofagasta Plc (Eng Mining Co) under a 4 year agreement, Antofagast will invest $2.5 million US in drillng program covering 1,900 hecters, at the end of 4 year program, Antofagasta will then carry out feasibility study. Should properties go into production Codelco retains 40% Antofagasta 60%. In 2008 Codelco signed similar exploration agreemnt with Rio Tinto.
This is not to say that any JV would be structured this way, But here is a current example of the possible time tables and cash requirements of a JV in Chile. MDMN place in a JV structured like this, is unknown (land owner/Mineral rights holder), but it gives you one example of a longer term time table for the big payoff.
The short term returns are something to keep investors interested, but the long term returns are probably the big payoff, and the upfront cash paid for the rights are non-existant. That might be different depending how badly the mining company wants the rights.
Do your own DD, but we need to manage the expectations, to limit the downside, if the JV is not in stratosphere that has been built over the last 10 years.
If your in, your in.
What insight....Not
If your not playing the pump and dump game, low volume means, the longs are holding their shares in anticipation of things to come.
Additionally, the SP is holding within a range that reflects the anticipation of an upward movement in the price. Volume of less than 2 million shares does not reflect any real move in the stock anyway. The total dollars are only $60,000. Not a real sign of any outside interest anyway.
People that find this stock only dip their toe initially, then committ to more purchases over time. They will normally buy less than $5,000 and within 1 month sell a portion ot test the market for sales. This is a pinkie, normal trading patterns do not typically work in this market.
Your senseless posts are not even humorious. You are the black cloud on the island. No one knows why your even here and we get tired of trying to figure you out.
I amnot against constructive discussions, even negative comments, when there is a purpose, open discussion is good for increasing and maintaining interest in the stock, But your mindless statements offer no reasons for discussion, and are thus useless.
If your in, your in.
Just the math please
There are 674 million shares outstanding. At $1 that puts the value of the Company at what? Yes, that would be $674,000,000.
At $1.50 it would be just over 1 billion dollars. Do some DD and see how many gold stocks trade at that value. Or if you think this is jr mining company, how many jr. mining companies trade at that value.
By the way, how can we be a jr. mining company if we just own the real estate and mineral rights. Seems like calling yourself a oil exploration company if you just own the mineral rights. Just a question, I do not know the answer.
Once the JV starts drilling or production we can hit your lofty numbers, IF the price of gold goes to $6,000 an ounce. I believe that is very possible, but inflation over delta T are the two components that will determine that outcome.
It is all about time, the time it takes for the JV announcement, the time for test drilling, the time for actual production. If you don't have the time, you don't have any business being in this play.
If your in, Your in.
Venting without purpose is useless.
In order for any stock to advance to a fair level it must first establish a solid base to build from. This stock is trying to establish that base against a whole slew of bashers and stock manipulators.
You do not need to be a cheerleader, but useless venting, is normally a sign of a pumper/dumper, or stock manipulator.
If your only reason to stay in this stock is the possibility of a short squeeze, it might be time to rethink your investment strategy. That is not to say we won't have a some SP upword pressure from the MM's covering short positions. But it is going to be brief and and I would be surprised if it is going to be more than $1.
Why, because there are too many longs that will start selling a portion of their shares on the way up to cover their original costs. After they cover, people are going to hold for the real payoff, which is once (and if)we go to production. That could be a year away. Until we balance out the longs desire to reduce the risk and take a little money of the table, with the new investors desire to get on board, the stock is not running anywhere.
Vent if you need, but balance it with something realistic as to the value of the investment.
The phrase "Boy, I wish we could get this JV signed" is appropriate. Or "Man, I wish management could give us more information on the details of the possible JV".
Try a few of those and see if they make you feel better.
If your in, your in.
What a bunch of Pooh.
That was a worth while post, contained no information, blasted the the longs as idiots and, how did you phrase it, "stuckholders".
What could be your motivation behind this post.
1. It can't be to make new friends.
2. It contains no new information or suggestions, so it can't be to better define reasons to continue to hold the investment.
3. You were not making a comment on the game of golf or vegas because it lacked detail on both.
Unless you just got out of a proctology exam, it appears that you have something up your arrrs. None of which helps sustain the SP or modivates management to act favorably on the behalf of the shareholders.
So I can't figure it out. What is your motivation.
OK let me put it differently.
A Great Man - Don Henley - Once Said;
There are people in your life who've come and gone,
They let you down and hurt your pride
Better put it all behind you; life goes on
You keep carryin' that anger, it'll eat you up inside
and then went on to say;
The more I know, the less I understand
All the things I thought I knew, I'm learning again
I've been tryin' to get down to the heart of the matter
But my will gets weak and my thoughts seem to scatter
But I think it's about forgiveness Forgiveness
Even if you don't love this board anymore.
I believe that past performance does not reflect future results.
“Let us therefore come boldly to the throne of grace, that we may obtain mercy and find grace to help in time of need.”
Well said.
Lets call the pumpers and dumpers when we see it. We need a stable SP if we are going to get any future buyers to take the risk on this stock before and after any JV announcement. The story is plausable, the longivity is significant and while the risk is great, the potential for real money returns is definately better than your weekly lotto purchase.
No one should be investing their rent money here, but that portion of your investment portfolio earmarked for very high risk/ high return investments fits nicely into this stock and it's story.
The Shorts Game Plan
The game continues, those trying to mulipulate the stock will continue to trade the stock down by selling small blocks of shares to lower SP. You will see this on low volume days. Then...Stay focussed, these shorts will attempt to find some newbies that are not comfortable with pinkies or thought this was a short term play into selling larger blocks for fear of missed expectations. Picking up shares on the cheap.
The reality is that 100,000 shares traded at .03 is $3,000, thus a .005 drop in SP nets them a huge $500 profit. The longs should not feed this strategy, even if your 1 million shares reflect a $5,000 paper loss on the same .005 decline. If you play the bumps you are working against the collective.
If the 6 times multiple is correct, we should be a .06 stock. At a 2.8 multiple we should be at .03. Anything below that level is the result of the weak, the poor, or the tired, prematurely loosing faith based on board posts, because we all know there is no information out there that has changed anything from known to unknown.
If you believe in the mountain, then stay. Even if we have to wait three more months or longer, I can't imagine you have a better place to put your investment play money right now.
If your in, your in.
Note the last three names. You make the call.
Look for the set-up. You see it now.
Reading through the post watch for the references to big ticket items you will purchase in the short term based on soon to be unfounded dates or events. These are pumps, attempts to create an expectation of a material transaction.
These will be followed within a week or days based on the change in SP, with disappointment in those unfounded dates or events not materializing.
If we want the stock price to stabalize we need to call it when we see it. A premature run up on the shares only creates the eventual crash which causes certain longs to question the investment. The stock being a pink is all the concern we need without having the pumper and dumpers messing with our minds.
You want to joke about your hotel or car reservations, use email not the board to post your dreams. If you post anything about your unfounded riches, you are a pumper, whether you mean to be or not. And your not helping your cause, unless that is your intention. IMHO
Calculations - My Guess
The formula can be defined as such.
Enterprise value X Avg Multiple / by Outstanding Shares = SP
Current EV = 7.1M X 2.8 / 672M = .03
or if you use 6 times 7.1m 6 / 672m = .06
Your Assumption of 200M thus would be
207m x 2.8 / 672m = .86 or
207m x 6 / 672m = 1.85
The EV and multiple is thus the key factors in the formula. You can see that once production or reserves are factored in the number grows significantly. Don't forget MDMN owns less than 100% of the mountian and the JV could require certain cash as part of the agreement.
Recognize the Patterns
Anyone that projects a SP based on nothing, is a pumper/dumper. Ignore these rants if your a long term player. They play the .005 swings and make a little money, but they keep other possible investors out of the stock because of lack of SP stability.
They also create doubts about managements ability and responsibilities. You are invested in a pinkie, embrace the horror of no required 8-K, 10-Q and 10-K, no audited financials and no footnote disclosures. You want quarterly updates, you have invested on the wrong exchange.
I missed the part of the ethics class that required management to inform the shareholders of operating issues on the OTC-PS. I think management's responcibility is to maximize shareholder value, how they choose to do communicate that varies from one CEO to another and varies under SEC rules and exchanges.
I am not sure we ever discussed the moral aspect of public reporting in church or around the family kitchen table, but that is just me.
If your in, your in. If you believe in the mountain, stay in and play your hand. You never like the dealer when your down, but will tip him when your winning. We have to believe the dealer is not dealing from the bottom of the deck, if we are going to stay at the table. I agree that means he has to show us something now and then so we can keep him honest. End of Discussion.
I like those numbers better. Lets not forget the equity value of the Company is based on the cost of the mountain acquired. Once production or third party reserves are calculated, the value is based the dream. But at 6 times number we should be at $.06
Some Other Estimates
FromThe Daily Reckoning Presents
How Much Gold is Enough? by Jeff Clark
When projecting gold's potential price peak, there are many ways to measure it. Conservatively, gold reaching its inflation-adjusted 1980 high would have it topping around $2,400 an ounce. More radically, if the US tried to cover its cumulative foreign trade deficit with its current gold holdings, gold would need to hit about $32,000/oz.
Let's take something more middle of the road, and apply the same trough-to-peak percentage advance gold underwent in the 1970s. (I think there's a greater than 50/50 chance it does more than that, given the precarious nature of the US dollar). Gold rose from $35 in 1970 to $850 in 1980, a factor of 24.28. Our price bottomed in 2001 at $255.95; multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.
Sound too high? Well, would it feel high if you had to pay $12.50 for a Big Mac? At $3.39 today at my local McDonald's, that's about what it would cost ten years from now if we get the same rate of inflation we had in the late 1970s.
That may be the case, and if so, you have to question how active the board is in the management of the company. We speculated for a long time that, that is not the case regarding a number of issues. The "so called time table" we have been told were given by BOD members might have been their best estimate, all the other time tables are BS and everyone knows it. Management continues to say "if it aint on the web-site, it is speculation" Why can you not believe that?
Look you either believe in the mountain or you don't. There appears to be little faith in the management. I for one hope that changes.
I hope the deal happens, I hope that the deal for MDMN 50% of the mountain drives up the enterprise value of the entity. I do not see how this changes anyones address in the short term, but could be big once, and if, production starts.
The pinks are Vegas, (which you all seem to love to talk about) you have been sitting at the table for months and years and the cards have'nt turned your way. But I think we are getting to the last third of the deck and the cards are falling our way. IMHO
Reasons To Hold
Some facts to sleep by:
Gold stocks trade on average at 2.8 times equity.
MDMN equity per web site at 6/30 is 6.1m putting enterprise value at 17.08m. We have 672.9m shares issued which put the share value at approx .03 cents per share.
Stock traded .6m shares down today on less than $20,000 in activity. That is the nature of penny stocks. The S (not ns) drive this volume. They are betting against themselves.
The web site has been updated, or it at least appears to me to have changed considerably.
Managment issued 10M new shares in the first quarter and only 3m new shares in the second to cover operating costs. This is a good sign with an increasing SP that something is on the horizon.
If your in your IN, if you get out, do it because you don't believe, not because someone set a artifical time table that management did not hit.
Already there is talk of expanded regulation as a result of the accident. That does not affect the announcement of a JV but could impact the cost of drilling and eventually extracting the minerals and thus ROI calculations. Investors hate uncertainty. But more importantly, you are not going to announce a large JV when the news is full of accusation of corporate safety shortfalls in the same industry, same country, and for all we know the same owners.
This deal will get done, It is just a matter of time.
Wake up people, nothing is going to happen until the mining accident issue in Chile is off the front page of the newspapers. That might be a few weeks IMO. But it could be a month. Believe in the deal or don't. But don't make the mistake of trying to time the date. You might miss it totally. Management will get this deal done. Whether the deal is the one we hope for is another issue.