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Yes but I have been saying this for months. I watch futures and refinery output. Here is a gold bug that agrees with me:
Tuesday, May 11, 2004, 7:37:00 PM EST
Oil Reaches 13-Year High
Author: Jim Sinclair
The last time oil reached $40 per barrel you could hardly blink before it was back under $30. There is no comparison between the price action then and the situation today. This is the real thing and Monty’s $55 forecast for oil is probably coming a lot sooner than "long term."
O&G still on a tear. EOM
Napalm them all and let God figure out the rest!
BTW. I AM NOT IN THE MOOD FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN ANGER! My prayers go out to that Pa. patriot that got his head lopped off. FUCK, I wish I were younger!
OT. I just had some asshole YahooIM me bragging about knowing my password. Be careful out there!
Market Cap (intraday): 19.75M
Enterprise Value (10-May-04)³: 20.93M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): N/A
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-05)¹: 0.00
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 6.80
Price/Book (mrq): N/A
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 7.08
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: N/A
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Dec
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 31-Dec-03
Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): -42.18%
Operating Margin (ttm): -30.11%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): -88.98%
Return on Equity (ttm): N/A
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 2.96M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 0.184
Revenue Growth (lfy)³: -12.30%
Gross Profit (ttm)²: 541.32K
EBITDA (ttm): -723.00K
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): -1.25M
Diluted EPS (ttm): -0.081
Earnings Growth (lfy)³: N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 592.00K
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.03
Total Debt (mrq)²: 1.44M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 0.588
Book Value Per Share (mrq): -0.126
Cash Flow Statement
From Operations (ttm)³: -1.03M
Free Cashflow (ttm)³: N/A
TRADING INFORMATION
Stock Price History
Beta: 0.748
52-Week Change: 195.00%
52-Week Change (relative to S&P500): 150.62%
52-Week High (12-Jan-04): 2.05
52-Week Low (23-May-03): 0.38
50-Day Moving Average: 1.18
200-Day Moving Average: 1.11
Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month): 86,227
Average Volume (10 day): 40,000
Shares Outstanding: 17.02M
Float: 9.00M
% Held by Insiders: 47.13%
% Held by Institutions: 0.00%
Shares Short : N/A
Daily Volume : N/A
Short Ratio : N/A
Short % of Float : N/A
Shares Short (prior month): N/A
Dividends & Splits
Annual Dividend: N/A
Dividend Yield: 0.00%
Dividend Date: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A
Last Split Factor (new per old)²: N/A
Last Split Date: N/A
Someone just busted their piggybank and bought 5,000 shares at .0002. This event should wipeout MM's.
AMEP is just starting to show production. The next Q may have some nice numbers and following Q's even better. They have oil and gas production that is from lowcost leases letting earnings flow more quickly to bottom line.
Lord I hate S-8's EOM
Buzz, they are drilling the Ohio Shale group that varies in depth as acreage nears mountains. I have drilled this formation 200 miles North of their leases and found that that shale is prolific IF there are many natural fractures. Talking to NGAS, their Ohio Shale exhibits said natural fracturing and does not exhibit the decline curve in production as does the less fractured shale.
The Ohio Shale group is a huge structure that contains much product but the trick is allowing that product an avenue to the bore. IF someone could devise a way to link natural fracture via a primary fracturing technique, supply in the East would be increased. MANY types of fracturing tech's have been tried and failed. Again, you need to drill that section that already has fracturing and I am convinced that NGAS has found that area in their large leasehold.
maninFla, when was this? EOM
The folks that I respect the most on accuracy in oil and gas all pretty much agrre that oil reserves peaked in 1999.
As to NGAS, Buzz is all over it. I talked to their head geologist for over an hour 10 days ago and am impressed.
Read this and know that it affects Nat Gas in a good way for producers:
Attacks in Mideast Raise Fear of More at Oil Installations
By SUSAN SACHS
New York Times
May 08, 2004
Email this story.
DHAHRAN, Saudi Arabia, May 7 - With oil prices climbing to a 13-year high after two deadly attacks on oil installations within a week, security has become the central preoccupation of Mideast oil producers.
The killing last Saturday of five Western contractors at Saudi Arabia's western oil hub in Yanbu and the attempted suicide bombing of Iraq's main oil export terminals on April 24 have raised market-rattling fears that oil workers and facilities may be Al Qaeda's new targets of choice.
The price of crude oil jumped above $40 a barrel in New York on Friday, its highest level since Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. It eventually settled at $39.93, up 56 cents from Thursday's price. For months, high demand and tight supplies have pushed the price of oil upward.
Most countries are producing at or near maximum capacity, and the only country with spare capacity is Saudi Arabia. Iraq's barrels are also badly needed. While last week's attacks did not do great damage, traders worry that a more serious disruption of Middle East oil production remains possible and that it would shake the fragile stability of the already strained oil market.
"It's the combination of fears of what might happen and the fundamental tightness of the market that has sent prices higher," said Leonidas P. Drollas, chief economist with the Center for Global Energy Studies, a London consulting firm.
Saudi refineries, pipelines and ports in Eastern Province, home to Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest oil producer, are widely seen as relatively well-fortified targets.
But the incidents at Yanbu, where oil is exported to North America and Europe, and at Iraq's only gulf outlet, exposed vulnerabilities that require swift remedies, analysts and oil industry executives said.
"What you really have in these two incidents is a new phase, a new type of attack," said Walid Khaduri, editor of The Middle East Economic Survey, based in Cyprus. "And the common denominator in both is a lack of security. So the only thing that countries can do is more and more security."
In Yanbu, guards had been posted at the entrances to the sprawling residential area for foreign workers and at the adjacent petrochemical industry complex. But they were armed, if at all, with handguns, according to contractors at the site.
Their pistols were no match for the heavy weapons used by the Saudi gunmen who killed the employees of the Texas-based ABB Lummis. They had semiautomatic rifles and went on a rampage in a stolen truck through the neighborhood, dragging the body of one victim. After they were cornered and killed, witnesses said one attacker was wearing what appeared to be a vest rigged with explosives.
The earlier incident in the waters off Basra, in southern Iraq, involved three small boats laden with bombs. One blew up when American sailors pulled alongside for a routine check as the boat approached the Khawr al- Amaya terminal, killing three of the sailors. The attackers' other two boats were destroyed as they raced toward the Basra loading dock.
The attacks were widely attributed to Al Qaeda or independent terror groups it has inspired. Three weeks before the Iraq attack, a specific threat against oil installations was made in a statement posted on a radical Internet site that was signed by Abdulaziz al-Muqrin, the presumed Qaeda leader in Saudi Arabia.
"Strikes on oil wells and pipelines in Iraq may lead to the withdrawal of foreign companies or at least destroy the security and stability needed by them to plunder the wealth of Muslims," the posting said.
The fear of further attacks has set off a small, but possibly temporary, exodus of foreign workers. All 90 Lummis employees at Yanbu were evacuated, at their request, and other companies have offered their workers similar options.
"Our company has urged dependents to go home for now, because upgrading security here will take a month or so," said Max Wilks, an executive with Saudi Arabian Parsons Ltd., an affiliate of the Parsons Corporation of California, which has provided management services to the Yanbu project since it began in 1979.
He said a few of Parsons' 160 foreign staff members had already resigned. "All the others are either going to stay or are in the undecided mode," added Mr. Wilks, who has worked at Yanbu for more than 20 years and has decided to stay.
Some foreign oil workers are now also calling for more intensive background checks of the Saudis who work alongside them, based on the disclosure that three of the Yanbu attackers worked at Yanpet, a company inside the industrial zone.
The topic dominated a meeting between American businessmen and the American ambassador to Saudi Arabia last Sunday, said David Cantrell, president of the American Business Association here.
"Probably 30 of the 60 minutes were taken up by that subject," he added. "I said if we could just find a company to vet the Saudi employees, it would be the next big thing. At the moment there is no mechanism to do it."
But the Saudi culture, and the government's official campaign to force companies to hire locally, could risk irritating local sensitivities.
"This is still a tribal society, and it's traditional that someone is vouched for because he's a cousin or a relative," said one longtime expatriate worker here. Saudi oil ministry officials, in any case, have insisted that they scrutinize all oil sector hirings.
But other security suggestions were adopted almost immediately after the Yanbu attack.
Sandbagged checkpoints run by uniformed members of Saudi Arabia's elite National Guard were quickly set up outside hotels and housing compounds catering to foreign oil workers. Outside the Holiday Inn, which abuts a large housing compound for expatriate oil workers, a maze of concrete barriers was put up to slow approaching cars.
Armored vehicles with machine guns patrol the perimeter of the port and industrial complex, and Saudi officials have been meeting daily with Western workers.
"Our Westerners want to see more guards, armed vehicles and heavier weapons, which we didn't like to see one week ago," said Mohammed Abdulaziz al-Juwaiser, the director general of the Royal Commission in Yanbu, which administers the oil industry development zone. "They have started to ask for more forces on the ground, especially around the work area."
He said the government was ready to meet their demands, but he cautioned that no one could provide an air-tight guarantee of safety against determined killers and terrorists. "You cannot build fences and put a guard around every person," Mr. Juwaiser said. "This is a city where people come and go."
Aramco workers appeared less worried, noting that their operations have been in the line of fire for years, especially after the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait when Saddam Hussein fired Scud missiles at the kingdom. The Saudi military as well as Aramco's own 5,000-strong security force monitor the pipelines, including the strategic line of pipes that carry gas and crude oil from the wells in Eastern Province across 750 miles of desert to the plants and port at Yanbu.
But the Saudi government takes the danger of further terrorist attacks seriously and, after a long period of complacency, has been aggressively searching for Al Qaeda operatives, killing a number of suspects in recent weeks.
Their own citizens have also become victims. Last May, 35 people were killed when suicide bombers rammed into a residential compound in Riyadh that housed both foreigners and Saudis. A car bomb attack last week at a crowded police headquarters in Riyadh left 5 people dead and 145 people wounded.
Yes Sonic, I am up against the wall with my redneck...
No sublime, I am perfect. A perfect example of falability(sp). I like your pic of artwork BTW.
Mariner, but is that rule grandfathered in? EOM
OT. Sorry COL pitcher just tied with a homer against said Maddox....LOL!
OT. Maddox on mound for Cubs up 3 to 1.EOM
How many are coalbed methane? THX. EOM
I hate telemarketers. EOM
NGAS has more acreage to drill in a formation that is uniform. 180,000 acres and planning on drilling 140 wells in 04.
General Editorial
Friday, May 07, 2004, 11:58:00 AM EST
Inflationary Tsunami - Coming To A Place Near You
Author: Jim Sinclair
Gas Prices Reach All Time High in New York: $2.33/gal for 91 Octane and $2.17/gal for Swamp Rot.
Everything is headed higher and the killer wave of inflation is forming like a Tsunami (tidal wave) at the mouth of the bay. All that 1% money, tax cuts, monetary stimulation and the wars we are fighting with ever diminishing supplies of troops are undermining the economy and the society we live in. Inflation is coming at us like nothing we have ever witnessed.
The skyrocketing cost of energy is not simply a one time affair. The management of al Qaeda knows as much about the mechanism of markets as I do and few if any know more about market mechanisms than me. After more than 45 years as a market maker in everything from securities to gold itself, I should understand them.
If I were in charge of homeland security, I would certainly have more than a few good men and women left at home to secure US oil production facilities. An attack against any of these installations would vault gas prices through the roof and I’m not just talking to $3 per gallon.
Now that an indigenous US attorney has been arrested as a suspect in the Spanish train bombing, the US and Europe must be on alert that other home spun Mr. Peepers types could be planning terrorist events. This should reinforce the strategy of Marines standing shoulder-to-shoulder around European and US oil refineries to prevent the energy squeeze from getting worse.
You sold gold because of a BS Financial Times article written by an intellectual nit wit who bought into Greenspan’s China hand. Please read John Hathaway’s article on gold posted below which presents a perfectly crafted argument for gold. You have to admit that John and I have different styles of teaching.
Rest assured there is no danger of losing me to the Board of Governors of the Fed or to the Counsel of Economic Advisors. The last President to suggest I hold a public position as Secretary of the US Treasury was Richard Nixon according to the NY times. But then I might have had to do time with All the Kings Men. I never liked stripes – even in a good suit.
14theroad. Yes OPEC is still the big player but many are cheating quotas. Ven. is talking about cutting the US off and Russia MUST have oil sales to bolster their economy. Toss in China as a net importer now and then mix well....you get a $40 bbl
May 4th? Great, it does not take long to core/drill these shallow depths. Most rotarys drill 24 hours.
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NYMEX:NG) View all months / Download data / Analyze Chart
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
NGK4 May 2004 5.810 5.970 5.780 5.935 +0.026 set 14:51
NGM4 Jun 2004 6.290 6.360 6.190 6.275 +0.056 10:08
NGN4 Jul 2004 6.380 6.430 6.300 6.365 +0.049 10:08
NGQ4 Aug 2004 6.400 6.400 6.400 6.410 +0.054 10:02
Light Sweet Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL) View all months / Download data / Analyze Chart
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
CLM4 Jun 2004 39.85 39.97 39.85 39.92 +0.55 10:08
CLN4 Jul 2004 39.17 39.80 39.17 39.70 +0.53 10:08
CLQ4 Aug 2004 39.00 39.00 38.40 39.05 +0.43 10:02
CLU4 Sep 2004 38.33 38.40 37.30 37.30 -0.66 10:04
Even if 20 billion, yes. EOM
fung, I doubt after market trades but rather MM's cleaning up slates. JMO
That $41 price in 1990 was but for a cup of coffee. I damn sure never got close to that for my Penn Grade crude. Ya'll have to know that no new refinery capacity has been built in the US for many years. If memory serves, HESS built the last plant in early 80's in Carribean(sp). This IS NOT the usual 20 year spike. This has legs and the US is just catching up with the rest of the industrialized world's gas/oil prices.
OH, fung, now I remember, you are an arse. LOL, test me on geology bub.
I am back in HeeHawHell, Ohio and have NEVER seen cheap unleaded at $2. It is today. Watch futures in unleaded on NYMEX and you will see increases.
Ya want a second opinion? This guy is damned savvy in PM's plus I have a friend that is on Bush's energy advisory board. Believe that or not, I don't care but reading the futures is indicative of my premise.
Tuesday, May 04, 2004, 9:57:00 PM EST
Market Commentary
Author: Monty Guild
This short note is a summary of some of our long-term opinions. This is not necessarily an indicator of actions we plan to take immediately.
LONG-TERM OPINIONS
The U.S. will remain very active in the Middle East. Stabilizing
Afghanistan, Iraq and possibly other countries is viewed as necessary in order to ensure an energy supply to the U.S. and its allies until alternative energy sources are developed.
This means that we should prepare for more wars and more bloodshed in the Middle East for the next several years. Oil may go to $55 per barrel.
Gold could go much higher in coming years due to the continued fighting and higher oil prices.
The U.S. has not solved any of the problems that have led to the dollar's decline throughout 2003. In the last few months, the dollar has risen slightly against a basket of world currencies. We do not expect this rise to last. Longer term we expect the U.S. dollar to continue to fall against major European and Asian currencies. [Note: This is a slightly more bullish view of currencies than we had in our last memo.]
The expected deceleration of growth in China has led to a rapid and severe decline in industrial metals and economically sensitive stocks in the U.S. and in countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia. These stocks will probably continue to underperform the broad market until the economists can determine the degree and timing of the slowdown in China.
We expect the U.S. market to rally into late 2004 and then begin a decline. The U.S. is currently enjoying the peak of its economic growth rate and an economic slowdown, or possibly a recession, could begin in the U.S. in 2005 or 2006.
Over the next few years, we do not expect that jobs will be created on a large scale in the U.S. due to numerous factors. We do not propose that GDP will not grow. It should grow throughout 2004 and probably 2005, but the economy has changed in fundamental ways that make rapid job growth less likely.
STOCK STRATEGY
U.S. stocks may peak in late 2004. Buy U.S. and Canadian energy stocks now and on dips.
Avoid base metal and semiconductor stocks. Short sellers can sell them short. (Note: This is a reversal of our previous view).In the U.S., focus on fast growing companies with low P/E ratios.
Japan is beginning an economic recovery that will have fits and starts but will increase stock market values for several years. Japan may have a market correction as fear spreads about China's growth rate slowing down. We expect, China's GDP growth to slow to about 4% from the recent 9% rate, but it will not go negative.
Russia will be greatly benefited by higher energy prices and by the coming upward valuation of their oil reserves by as much as 50%.
India should grow in excess of 4% or 5% for a prolonged period of time.Look for growth in Indian stocks and buy on the dips. We like energy stocks, outsourcing plays and banks.
If you like this letter, please share it with your friends and associates. We are happy to include anyone to our email list who requests to be added. We also encourage you to visit us on the internet at www.guildinvestment.com where we have a large archive of our past market commentary articles.
I have no idea what U mean about slurpit.EOM
IMO. We will see $50+ in crude and nat gas at $9+ per mcf. NGAS having above average BTU moves that to $11 per MCF
OIL and GAS my compadres:
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NYMEX:NG) View all months / Download data / Analyze Chart
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
NGK4 May 2004 5.810 5.970 5.780 5.935 +0.026 set 14:51
NGM4 Jun 2004 6.200 6.350 6.140 6.290 +0.021 14:47
NGN4 Jul 2004 6.290 6.435 6.230 6.410 +0.056 14:47
NGQ4 Aug 2004 6.360 6.460 6.300 6.420 +0.026 14:28
Light Sweet Crude Oil (NYMEX:CL) View all months / Download data / Analyze Chart
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
CLM4 Jun 2004 38.80 39.74 38.49 39.58 +0.60 14:46
CLN4 Jul 2004 38.75 39.45 38.30 39.37 +0.62 14:47
CLQ4 Aug 2004 38.30 38.85 37.85 38.75 +0.51 14:29
CLU4 Sep 2004 37.70 38.15 37.35 38.10 +0.47 14:23
fung_derf, where have i read U on RB? EOM
whatif, I will give U the benefit of the doubt but I am not employed by anyone and NEVER post to manipulate.
PENNY, Hey bud! I do have a wee bit of background in geology albeit I have drilled O&G for 25 years but it is a science that is constant. FEAR has been checked at the door and I didn't take a claim ticket.
I have a friend in Austin that is damned savvy in PM's and he 1st talked about this last Fall. I called Sterling and found him helpful and honest. He told me NOTHING that hasn't been posted but I sensed that D Day is near.
Bought in today at .0001. Good luck to all. I only fear a RS.