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Cameron,
I don't feel as if the missed data point you state on your post has much to do with the current direction of the INO stock. For the most part, I thought, as you seem to, that the data is good enough to move VGX-3100 to phase 3 and attract attention from a few possible partners.
I feel the downward pressure on the pps is coming from those on the short side, the quick release of the shelf registration and Dr. Kim's pattern of dilution after positive news, and the fact that management seems little interested in the pps movements currently.
Currently holding my shares, waiting for the pps to stablize.
I agree that nothing negative has happened on the science and clinical side of INO. Not more than a week ago I was predicting a pps of $14-$15 this week. The positive phase 2 data, and the thought of possible partnership opportunities going forward.
I was buying shares last week. Since I felt that after the phase 2 trial validated INO approach to the treatment of ID and cancer, INO would find a base from which the pps would go higher on more positive news.
The combination of outside influences (shorts and negative articles) and Dr. Kim's propensity to raise money post news, has sent INO's pps tumbling lower.
In the last year, INO's pps has dropped between 14% and 49% six times within the period of a week to 10 days. These price fluctuations, while they might be good for the seasoned trader, the shorts, and the flippers, I agree with others that it does little to instill confidence in new investors.
I also agree that the long term longs will get paid off eventually, but it is a little frustrating to see the traders, flippers and shorts continually paid off while many of us wait for our payday.
It's Dr. Kim's company, and he seems to be on a mission to change the way cancer and ID are treated. Most of us invested in INO because we feel that he will be successful. I just don't think his focus on his mission should preclude him from considering the loyal INO retail investors.
Based on the returns YTD, I guess you would say Dr. Kim is doing slightly better:
INO: - 0.17%
ONCS: -11.32%
IBB (Nasdaq Biotech Index): + 12.19%
I'm hoping the last 5 months of this year prove to be better, for INO and ONCS, than the 1st 7 months.
Over the last two years we have seen many positives surrounding INO, pushing the pps from $.50 to $4.00 pre-reverse split.
The positive price moves that follow news are often followed by an extended period of no news or dilution or the announcement of dilution. Without anything current news, and/or communication the pps erodes.
As someone earlier stated, flipping shares after the positive news, has been the most profitable way to play INO. This pattern has been played out a number of times in the last two years.
Will or have the long term longs made money? Many have, but to attract new long term retail shareholders, the pps will have to be more stable. More communication by management as to why the positive phase 2 data was follow immediately by the shelf registration.
If management continues to disregard the effective of their behavior and decisions the pps, INO stock will continue to subject to manipulation and an inability to hold any legitimate gains.
Recent history:
4/28 Scaffold Clinical trial announced
5/1 PPS= $2.19
5/6 $14.6 million dollar offering, PPS= $1.15
7/24 No News PPS= $.96
I hope someone is getting some constructive use out of the $14.6 million dollars.
Anybody buying today, besides me?
Although I did not like the shelf registration announcement yesterday, I feel it does give an opportunity to pick up some relatively "cheap" shares after INO's phase 2 success.
Looks like a base is forming near $12.40 pps. I am looking for at least $14-$15 pps in the near term, even without additional news.
Also a buying opportunity?
Everywhereman,
I do appreciate all the information and expertise you share with the board.
I would have liked to have had the company wait to do the shelf registration and let the shareholders have a totally positive day after the impressive phase 2 data.
After hours price down to $12.46, a minor drop in the overall scheme of things. This might give those shorts a bit of a break in which to cover.
Great article!
Thanks for passing it on.
The run up to the phase 2 data release, was imho, limited and most of the pps increase happened in the last week or two. Stock could have been purchase on 7/17 for $9.29.
R/S pps: $9.20
Yesterdays close: $11.14
You may be right about the "sell the news", with a little AF shorting as well, but with the relatively small pre-data run up, I think INO will move higher and back in the $14-$15 range very shortly.
The data is good and should lead to phase 3 and a likely partnership.
That's a given Dr. Bob.
Thanks for giving me your opinion on the data.
Definitely good news from the phase II trial for HPV.
Any comment from the Pharma/Science guys to AF comments?
Buy opportunties within the last few days in the $1.30's pps?
Back into the $.50 pps range again today.
Low volume, but a nice jump, since buyers were pushing the pps up.
Looking for some positive news to push the pps higher.
Price movement DVAX
1 month: $1.50 - $1.62
3 months: $1.30- $1.62
The stock does move intraday, but seems to have found a trading range until we have some positive news.
I guess we will have to wait a little bit longer to get the phase 2 data.
Would have been a nice we to start the weekend, with positive phase 2 data.
Rumors, Rumors
Where do we open?
High of the day?
Low of the day?
I'm a believe it when I see it type of person. Until INO releases the trial data, I don't know what to make of the limited information in the tweet. Definitely can not draw any solid conclusions from anything I have seen today.
Some background from the Phase I trial.
Taken from the INO company website:
In 2010, Inovio completed a phase I dose escalation study of VGX-3100, its investigational therapeutic cervical dysplasia synthetic DNA vaccine designed to treat pre-cancerous cervical dysplasias and cervical cancers, delivered with its CELLECTRA® electroporation device. Of all phase I trial subjects evaluated to date, 100% of study participants reported antibody positivity to at least two vaccine antigens and 78% of the subjects showed T-cell responses to at least one vaccine antigen. These results indicate that VGX-3100 has the potential to drive robust immune responses to antigens from high risk types of HPV infection as well as generate an immune response powerful enough to initiate a killing effect on cells changed into precancerous dysplasias by HPV. Building on positive outcomes of an 18-subject phase I dose escalation study that achieved best-in-class immune responses, a phase II clinical trial evaluating VGX-3100 for the treatment of cervical dysplasias is ongoing. This randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study has enrolled adult females with CIN 2/3 or CIN 3 and biopsy-proven HPV 16 or 18. Inovio expects to report unblinded, top-line data from this trial in mid-2014.
I'll pitch in with 3600 shares in the last two days.
Anybody else?
Volume up again over the past few days.
Someone accumulating NVIV and trying to do so at bargain prices.
NEWS!
I also scooped up some $.49's yesterday.
Looking for a base around $.50 and a rebound soon.
Don't think we will see $.48 today and since the catalyst for the move was the article that was published, I expected a pullback today.
We maybe able to find a base above the 50 day moving average of $.50.
KIPS would need to provide more and better news, than was provided in the article to move the PPS above $1.00.
I like the technology here and will hold my shares to see how the MESH's acceptance will progress in the near term.
Hopefully your guess is right.
I can't seem to find any other information as to why KIPS pps is moving now, other than all the positives I saw when I invested here.
$3.00 pps sounds reasonable to me, I guess we will just have to find investors willing to pay $3/share for NVIV.
I currently have a fair amount of money in NVIV, and if the technology works and SCI patients start to recover using the NVIV scaffold treatment, then we should easily see $3.00 and a lot more.
We may see more investors take a chance on NVIV, since the upside is great and the downside is somewhat limited, so the pps might continue to move upward.
I am holding my shares waiting for the patient enrollments to start and outcome data to be released.
Looking at how NVIV has been trading over the past couple of months since the the stock sale, bottoming near $1.00, I think that the only thing that will move the stock upward is the 1st patient enrollment in the trial.
All those other items, while they might be positive, will not move NVIV significantly up.
My thought in making the statement about why the stock is moving was to see if anyone had news of the 1st patient. I believe that is why most investors are invested here, and they are eagerly awaiting news.
PPS moving up this A.M. to $1.11.
I haven't yet been able to find any news for the small move, but hopefully we will get news of the first patient enrollment.
GLTA
Will,
Thanks for your great posts.
We all invested in ONCS knowing it was on the OTC market. If you were relying on statements made by management, online articles, or posters on this board, claiming that ONCS would soon be moving to another exchange, I think you were mistaken to do so.
Statements are made for many reasons, and talk is cheap. I'll believe ONCS is uplisting only when I see it.
In the meantime, I will make my investment decision regarding ONCS from those things that are currently known.
It takes: time, money, and expertise/experience to guide a new treatment through clinical trials and the regulatory process.
Small biotech companies may have the time, and may have a great new product or technology, but very few have the money and experience or expertise to bring products to market on their own.
The FDA sets up the process by which companies can submit and gain approval for their treatments. You may not like this system, but it is the one that is in place. (IMHO no conspiracy theory in play here). It is a very costly and time consuming process, and those companies that are successful, continue and thrive. Those companies that do not have the money or an effective management team, either fail or need to make agreements with larger companies to help them through the process.
So what's going to happen here?
Looks like ONCS might have the data to continue on , but where and when do we go from here?
DVAX PPS creeping over the 200 day MA and has rebounded over the last month from the $1.30 area to near $1.60 (23% return).
I know that we may have many that are underwater, if they have held for a while. DVAX has a very good vaccine and very good chance for approval post safety trial. Most important news about a year or more off, but buyout or partnership a possibility.
Do we keep moving up without any news?
So you discount the news items, I stated as reasons for the price action today.
Your claim is that the price action today was merely as a result of the resistance at $12.
INO news items post in Yahoo Finance Tuesday June 10th: 9 news items
7 posted before or during market hours.
You'll have to go along way to convince me that the price action was related to the technicals and not the news items.
So how did you make out on your trades today? Must have been good since you "nailed" you call.
Don't see anything in any previous posts about the $12 pps level.
Almost all of today's price action has absolutely nothing to do with TA.
Rise to $12+ due to news: Inovio Pharma initiates immune therapy trial for head & neck cancer caused by HPV
Drop to $8.80 due to Street articles is pretty plain to see.
If you're looking to impress someone, let's see how you have profited from brilliant predictions.
Got any screen shots of your trades?
Nowwhat2,
Is this your post?
$10 pps "A nice gift to the shorts"
I guess the shorts have to the end of the week to cover.
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You are posting to the Inovio Biomedical Corp. (INO) board. Please keep your post about the stock and company. Do not post about other users or other stocks.
Your post may be removed if it contains off-topic or other content that violates the terms of the Terms of Service.
These statements are posted to the immediate right of this box when you post. Adhere to the rules and you won't be deleted.
By the way, your post 11663, to which you refer was not deleted.
Last question, where is your skin? You know where mine is.
Long, short, no investment?
In the end predictions and statements are meaningless unless you have skin in the game.
122k buy just hit $.685
Fsa888,
Great article. Thanks for the link.
Decided to make it a stickie.
So far, you are correct.
If you purchased those $8.84 shares, you are up 18%.
GLTA the Longs.
up almost 5% today
hopefully the trend continues
If you want to talk about gifts, it was a offering that pulled the INO share price from $.70 ps to $.50 ps in March of 2013.
I was able to average down to about $.60 ps and sold many for 4x-6x more than the purchase price.
I continue to like the technology and have maintained an investment here.
Why are you here?
I guess the bargain I was thinking of might have been the low of the day, if the response to the RS was negative.
Looks like the $8.80's was somewhat of a bargain, since we have been up over 5+% from that number.
Buy, hey if your on the short side, I never have been, and you think $10 is a bargain, go for it.
You keep posting like everyone on this board is a short term technical trader, when in reality many of the posters are here for the relative long term. We buy and hold or buy the dips and sell the resistance.
Follow those charts all you want, they are but a very small part of my decision making process, and I for one find very little value in most technical analysis. It's not the way I trade.
I've said this before, I was in on INO when the shares were $.50 and nobody wanted them. So I tend to rely on my own DD.
Good luck to the Longs.
That is the reason I am invested here as well.
Maybe with smaller company with more limited resources has hindered Manny's ability to move the Mesh forward at more rapid rate.
Hopefully progress is happening at a quicker rate and we will see more positive news in the near future.
In early March of 2013 the PPS of INO went from $.70 to $.50 after an offering at around $.50 pps.
INO PPS doubled on July 8 from the $.50 offering price.
INO PPS doubled again to $2.00 on August 1st
Most people are aware that the PPS has bounced in the $1.20 to $4.00 price range. Currently trading: $2.30 with RS today 1 for 4.
Currently I have twice as much money invested in ONCS as INO.
Not that the history of INO has anything necessarily to do with ONCS, but both have data coming and partnership possibilities.
I'm hoping for a successful 2014 for both.