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TDOG, TMTA was in the licensing business and got out of it. This is from memory, but somewhere early on, eg, 1997, TMTA entered into license agmts with IBM and Toshiba under which the licensees were able to manufacture and market Crusoe chips. For the period of 1997 or so up to the IPO, the company's revenues came mostly from license fees.
In filing the registration statement for the IPO (in the fall of 200) TMTA announced that it was no longer interested in licensing its technology and was going to be the sole mfg and marketer of Crusoe chips. It then bought back the licenses from IBM and Toshiba, and it may well be the case that it is still paying the buy-back fees (adding to the overhead at present).
regads, wsh
Yesterday's NYTimes article on INTC is a good read. I am getting caught up after being out of town and found this of interest. The comments of Joe Osha in the first paragraph tell us volumes about Mr Osha. Apparently Intel officials didn't tell Joe there were any problems as they lavishly entertained him.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/06/09/business/yourmoney/09WATC.html?pagewanted=print&position=botto....
June 9, 2002
Far From Wall Street, Intel's Bad News Was No Surprise
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Whe Intel dropped the bomb late Thursday, ratcheting down its forecast for both sales and profit margins in the current quarter, Wall Street analysts were caught again like so many deer in the headlights. As Intel's stock plummeted on the news in after-hours trading, Joseph A. Osha, Merrill Lynch's semiconductor analyst, spoke for most of the Street when he said, "Nobody saw this coming."
In truth, somebody did see it coming; Fred Hickey, publisher of The High-Tech Strategist in Nashua, N.H., and a card-carrying nonmember of the see-no-evil brokerage firm crowd. In recent months, Mr. Hickey has repeatedly warned his subscribers that shares of Intel, the largest producer of computer chips, were headed for a fall.
For instance, back in March, Intel management predicted that gross margins in the second quarter would be 53 percent. But Mr. Hickey speculated that Intel's impressive margins were mostly a result of a buildup in inventory, not sales to end users, and that the margins were therefore unsustainable unless demand picked up. It obviously has not. And so, on June 6, Andy D. Bryant, Intel's chief financial officer, cut the anticipated profit margins to 49 percent in the second quarter, citing weakened demand for chips in Europe.
Mr. Hickey said Intel "tried to be a hero in the first quarter."
"They continued to produce at high levels, which improved their gross margins, and then talked about efficiencies and productivity when it was only an inventory buildup," he added. "Now they have to pay the piper."
While some Intel watchers may hope that the reduced forecast represents a near-term hiccup, Mr. Hickey has a different view. He thinks the days of mighty Intel's hegemony are over and that it will soon come under severe pressure from competitors —— particularly Advanced Micro Devices. Adding to his gloom is a belief that even if the economy keeps improving, technology companies will not likely participate.
"Intel is in a very difficult position, in the short-term and long term," Mr. Hickey said. "They've got to cut production, which will send costs up. That will put pressure on a stock that is still grossly overvalued even at today's lower price." Down the road, the company faces an Advanced Micro chip —— known in the industry as the Hammer —— that many industry experts consider superior to Intel's Itanium chip.
Advanced Micro plans to start shipping the chip by year-end. Software designers and box manufacturers like the chip's ability to run both high-speed and lower-speed software programs. This so-called backward capability sets it apart, giving Advanced Micro a chance to break Intel's lock on the server market.
"The Hammer is where Advanced Micro breaks into the business-computing market," Mr. Hickey said. "And Intel has had the protection of relatively high gross margins in that area."
If Advanced Micro's new chip is as good in production as it looks in tests, computer manufacturers like Dell and Hewlett-Packard may flock to it. At a minimum, having an alternative to Intel's chip will give the company's customers new leverage when negotiating on price. That would be more bad news for Intel profit margins.
Intel has dominated the semiconductor industry for what seems an eternity. Not long ago, its market value exceeded the combined total of the 16 other chip stocks in the Philadelphia Stock Exchange semiconductor index. For many investors, Intel is not just a stock; it is a religion. Even following the company's reduced sales and profit forecast, Intel carries a $147 billion market capitalization and a price-to-earnings ratio of 42. Quite a price tag, given what Intel is up against.
UMC said TSMC, its biggest rival, is having difficulty making such chips for customers such as Transmeta Corp, PMC-Sierra Inc and Broadcom Corp.
None of the three companies has transferred orders to UMC, Hsuan said.
"We don't fully know the situation with our competitor," said Hsuan.
"We have been hearing from our customers that TSMC is having problems."
Thanks for the link knowjack. The statements above are somewhat internally inconsistent, so it is hard to know what to make of it. I would think that HPQ placing a large order for 1GHz TM5800s is evidence that TSMC is not having major problems producing chips for TMTA.
Fred, this article might hint at some answers for your question as to why share prices for UMC and TSMC are down.
regards, wsh
vnunet.com article on HPQ-TMTA. Rob Enderle is rapidly becoming my favorite analyst. Tip of the hat to ph33r of the Yahoo board for this link.
HP offers major boost to Transmeta
By John Geralds in Silicon Valley [05-06-2002]
http://www.vnunet.com/News/1132335
Evo tablet PCs to use 1GHz Crusoe chipIn a breakthrough for chipmaker Transmeta, Hewlett Packard (HP) has confirmed that it will use a 1GHz Crusoe chip to power its new tablet PCs.
HP becomes the first US computer maker to choose a Crusoe processor over products from Intel.
Transmeta has had limited success with its low-power chips in Japan where a number of manufacturers have included the products in laptop computers.
Crusoe chips are lighter, smaller, generate less heat and use less battery power than similar ones from Intel and AMD.
HP's Compaq Evo Tablet PCs are based on a Windows XP PC operating system and will be launched later this year. Pricing has yet to be announced.
The devices, which weigh just 3lb, will ship with a keyboard interface but will allow users to write directly onto the screen.
Rob Enderle, an analyst with Giga Information Group, said that companies such as HP were unhappy with the rate of change in technology from Intel, leaving the door open for a chip company such as Transmeta to become the standard for this type of mobile device.
Following the merger of HP and Compaq, the company management decided that all business machines will use the Compaq Evo brand.
JAK, XP for Tablet PC is supposed to be the entire OS, plus add ons for tablet-specific functions. So, I am sure it will take awhile to load. BTW, I agree with you that XP takes too long to load, even on fast machines.
I think Steak hit it on the head in his response. MS expects the machine to be turned on and left on. Their specs require Tablet PCs to maintain standby (S3, I think) for 72 hours on a fully charged battery.
Here is a link to MS specs for Tablet PCs
http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/tabletpc/hardware.asp
regards, wsh
gl: "I would venture to guess that Transmeta has endeared itself to many OEM's by actually doing much of the IC design in many potential products."
Hi glanta, nice to hear from you. Your comments are in line with what I was thinking. The most recent 10Q for TMTA discusses at some length the prospects for IC and system design services both as ancilliary to the sale of chips and as a profit center. Eg, I suspect that a lion's share of the design work for the OQO was done by Transmeta engineers. This may well be the case also for the HPQ Tablet PC.
Such work by TMTA helps of course in the sale of chips, but it also ensures that the products delivered by the OEMs are state of the art in terms of integration, energy efficiency, and battery life. This ends up making the Crusoe look good as it powers a product with a competitive advantage.
regards, wsh
Interview with Matthew Perry
Last night there was a series of posts on Yahoo by blackjaro2002, nos. 27373-76. Apparently Dr. Perry gave an interview to the Japanese press, which blackjaro was kind enough to translate for us. Recommended reading to all Transmetans.
regards, wsh
Hi xanada, thanks for the posts. BTW, have enjoyed your posts on Yahoo for some time. Appreciate your efforts.
regards, wsh
Lady and Gentlemen, some reflection
Today's announcement is of course wonderful, but it also very interesting. HPQ does not enter into key decisions of this nature without serious study: How does this affect our relationship with INTC for the rest of our product line? Can TMTA guarantee timely production of TM5800 chips for whatever quantity we need? Can we sell these Tablets without INTC's co-op advertising? In short, is there anyway we can produce these Tablet PCs using INTC chips and avoid rocking the INTC boat?
Apparently the answer was no, we need the TMTA chip to make the product feasible. If so, can any other US OEM come to a different conclusion without suffering a competitive disadvantage?
Would love to know more about the TM5800 availability issue. This announcement further affirms the rampup to very significant quantities by 3Q. Obviously, HPQ is being made certain promises. One wonders if there will be chips available to all who want them, or will they go to early adopters?
Next couple of months will be very interesting.
regards, wsh
CONFIRMED: Compaq using Crusoe in Tablet PC.
Thanks to sirlittlestock of Yahoo Board for first finding this long-awaited news report:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020603/tech_transmeta_1.html
Monday June 3, 12:03 am Eastern Time
Reuters Company News
Transmeta to power HP Tablet PC, cracks US market
SAN FRANCISCO, June 3 (Reuters) - Upstart microchip designer Transmeta Corp. (NasdaqNM:TMTA - News) has cracked the market for U.S. notebook computers in a deal to supply processors for Hewlett-Packard Co.'s (NYSE:HPQ - News) Tablet PC, the companies said on Monday.
Transmeta, which is weathering a management shake-up and recovering from production glitches of its low-power chips, will ship its first gigahertz chips, performing a billion operations per second, with the EVO Tablet PC, which will be released later this year under the Compaq brand.
U.S. buyers until Monday had snubbed Transmeta's Crusoe chips, initially seen as a real challenge to Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM:INTC - News), leaving Transmeta relying on Japanese customers like Sony Corp. (Tokyo:6758.T - News) and Toshiba Corp. (Tokyo:6502.T - News).
"For Transmeta it is a big deal, because people have been saying, 'when are you going to get a big U.S. customer' and we not only have a U.S. customer, we have the No. 1 leader in notebooks with HP here," said Dave Ditzel, Transmeta founder and chief technology officer, in an interview.
Production problems delayed the latest Crusoe chip by months, sending Transmeta revenue for the first quarter down 78 percent from a year earlier to $4.1 million and helping to widen the quarter's loss by 36 percent to $30.9 million.
TABLET AIMS TO REPLACE PAPER
The Tablet PC announced by Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) and hardware partners incorporates drawing and handwriting recognition into the Windows XP operating system in an attempt to add features of a physical notebook pad to a computer.
Manufactures have shown off prototypes varying from a traditional notebook with a screen that can swivel 180 degrees to allow writing to a pad without a keyboard that looks like a big personal digital assistant, which is the style of the Compaq prototype, although it is keyboard compatible.
The tablet concept has met a fair share of skepticism, given an earlier failed attempt by Microsoft to push a tablet computer, and No. 2 PC maker Dell Computer Corp. (NasdaqNM:DELL - News) has not announced a tablet.
But HP Vice President Ted Clark said the Compaq EVO would be a flagship product when it was announced at Microsoft's Tablet PC launch.
"We think they will expand the overall ultra portable market, and we hope to see them accelerate purchases in the notebook market, but we are targeting the same customer who would be looking for an ultra or a mini-notebook," he said.
Notebooks have been the best performing category during recent PC doldrums, as business and home users have found they can do almost everything they want with new portable machines.
Low power microchips are extremely efficient, meaning that they produce relatively little heat, a form of wasted energy, and drain batteries much slower than high-power rivals, meaning they are less likely to burn someone holding a notebook on his or her lap or arm and can hold up longer without recharging.
But Intel, the No. 1 maker of chips for personal computers, responded to Transmeta's entry into the market by improving its own line of low-power chips and so far had kept the Crusoe chips out of U.S. brands of computers.
Ditzel, who declined to comment on financial projections, said the tablet represented the next generation of smaller hardware as well as Microsoft's next operating system, since the Tablet PC builds on XP.
"This is not a tablet system, it is full Windows XP. In fact it is the next version of XP," he said.
New Ad blitz from INTC to further build brand loyalty.
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=technologynews&StoryID=1039153
The net effect as far as TMTA and AMD is concerned likely will be even more money spent by Intel on cooperative advertising with US computer OEMs.
regards, wsh
Steak, I cannot find any mention of a new "designer" laptop from Gericom with a TMTA chip. Any info?
regards, wsh
Fred, your post from Barrons is consistent with a number of recent guestimates that INTC and AMD will not hit even restrained targets for the rest of '02.
When TMTA hits their 2Q guidance (or likely exceeds it) and guides for similar percentage grown for 3Q, we might start to look pretty good to the Street.
regards, wsh
Bird, I puzzle over Dave Ditzel's comment:
He enthused, "We are determined to offer a PC with a price less than US$1,000, a weight of less than 1000g, a battery lasting more than 1,000 minutes (approximately 16 hours) and a CPU of more than 1,000MHz."
Doesn't this seem a strange comment from a chip mfg? He didn't say that TMTA is determined to offer a chip to enable their OEMs to . . . Just poetic license?
Wasn't that Colin Hunter was in the photos provided by Steak, demoing the OQO device? Interesting relationship between TMTA and OQO, but what is it?
regards, wsh
Another MS Tablet PC Article. This one is interesting in reporting on the heat buildup of the ACER convertible laptop/tablet distributed at CEO Summit.
http://www.eastsidejournal.com/sited/story/html/93314
'Soft Talk: Tablet PC scheduled for October launch
2002-05-23
by Cydney Gillis
Journal Business Reporter
I love my Tablet PC.
That was the sentiment yesterday at Microsoft Corp.'s annual CEO Summit, where more than 100 executives got to use -- and jot notes on -- the pad-like mobile computers, which Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates revealed are set to launch this October.
Gates dropped the news during his opening talk to the top brass, who gather each year at Microsoft's Redmond campus for two days of some of the world's finest business schmoozing.
That includes trying out the latest Microsoft technology. Last year, the software maker gave each executive a hand-held Pocket PC. But because the Tablet PC model passed out from Acer Inc. this year is a pre-production prototype, the CEOs will have to pass it back at day's end today.
Acer is one of 11 manufacturers that will release different models of the Windows-based tablet, which Microsoft is touting for its ability to take, save and search through handwritten notes -- that is, if it can read your writing.
To imitate the flow of ink, the devices, which Microsoft product manager Kelly Berschauer said will cost between $1,600 and $2,200, use a radio frequency ``pen' and a behind-the-screen digitizer.
The Acer model, in particular, looks like a normal notebook computer, but its 10.5-inch screen flips around and folds down to create a carry-along writing surface, which Berschauer had mixed results demonstrating to reporters.
Cradled in one arm, the device was light (less than 3 pounds) and very warm.
It was, however, a silky dream to write on with the pen, which doubles as a mouse for clicking on applications -- or conducting a search of your own handwritten notes.
And therein lies a little hurdle that the Tablet PC can't always jump. With the pen, you can circle a handwritten word you want to search for, but the first thing the program, called Windows Journal, has to do is convert it to text.
After giving up on cursive somewhere in junior high school, I happen to print my letters, so the Tablet PC's text converter --which can convert and save notes as a Word file -- had no trouble recognizing a few lines of text I wrote on the screen.
Where I crossed out a line, Berschauer turned the pen over and showed me how to make it disappear, just like using an eraser.
When another reporter tried it in his own admittedly horrible scrawl, the text he wrote -- something about Bill Gates being a leader in technology -- got converted into a garbled paragraph that included ``adulterer bees' and ``pedagogue.'
Berschauer said the company had sampled more than 1 million people's handwriting to create the program, including paying close attention to the handwriting of ``lefties,' which, being one, Gates noted in his talk was extremely important for the Tablet PC.
But ``If you can't read your own handwriting,' Berschauer said with a laugh, ``the (Tablet PC) is not the magic machine to make your handwriting legible.'
Or, in some cases, even visible. Another function -- sending a handwritten e-mail over Microsoft's wireless network -- also failed. The written message, which gets sent as a graphic illustration attached to an e-mail, opened at another computer, but it was blank. Microsoft personnel said they'd look into it.
Regardless, in the next few years, Gates said, the industry will achieve the type of natural computer interfaces that have long been promised, such as handwriting, speech or even large screens such as the panoramic prototype that Gates also showed off during his talk.
Called the ``Dsharp,' the wide, curved screen allows a computer user to see and organize many software windows or pages of a document at once -- much like working with sheets of paper on a desk.
Knowjack, an upgraded Fujitsu Loox is being introduced in Japan, so an upgraded P cannot be far behind. Just how far, I have not heard. Info for those interested from LeoG's board:
Specifications of the new P-Series model
From: Mac Gyver
Date: 28 May 2002
Time: 05:16:09 -0400
Remote Name: 80.134.78.148
Comments
Here are the specifications of the upcoming new model (named Loox T68AW in Japan) but i don't know WHEN it comes out in USA CPU: Crusoe TM5800 867 MHz RAM: 256 MB, upgradable to 384 MB (see below ;) ) HDD: 30 GB VGA: Ati Rage Mobility with 8 MB VRAM But take a look yourself:
http://www.fmworld.net/product/hard/pcpm0205/biblo_loox/t/spec/image/spec_t01.gif
http://www.fmworld.net/product/hard/pcpm0205/biblo_loox/t/spec/image/spec_t02.gif
http://www.fmworld.net/product/catalog/2002summer/ctlg_bib_0205-t.pdf
Info on Banias from Japanese site
Thanks to senjenpa of Yahoo board.
http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/pc/docs/2002/0530/banias.jpg
Hard to know what to make of this chart, but the information seems specific, credible, and recent (5/30/2002?)
Looks like Banias will come in three versions, Banias, Banias LV, and Banias ULV, just like the mobile PIIIs. Certainly the specs are better than PIIIMs, but nothing special. Looks like SpeedStep will be used again in the new chip.
So, TMTA is developing a revolutionary 256-bit chip with unheard of power/performance parameters, and INTC is tweaking a PIII and announcing it as revolutionary.
regards, wsh
Steak, I compared the new slides to the set you posted a month or so ago, post #1105. Bad news and good news. The bad news is that the TM6000 and TM8000 (not named at that point) appear to have slipped some in release date, perhaps as much as six months. However, on the old slides the TM6000 was scheduled for release in 2003 and not 2H02 as I remembered.
The good news: the TM5800 in the earlier slides showed a upper speed of 1 GHz. The current slides show the upper speed as 1 GHz+. Likely, TSMC production is going well and we should see a TM5800 rated at over 1 GHz.
A bit bitter, yes, particularly as concerns release of the TM6000. I had hoped it would have been released this year. Yet, good news nonetheless. It is reassuring to know that the CEO of TMTA is publically announcing a SoC and a 256-bit VLIW chip. Perhaps they are indicating release dates they can deliver on and not just dates to be moved further and further out as time goes by.
It also is reassuring that TMTA continues to follow its Asia first strategy. That the CEO and CTO travel half way around the world to present a roadmap for TMTA is symbolic, and it should be very reassuring to an audience of Sony, Fujitsu, Toshiba, FIC, Casio, Twinhead, Hitachi et al. The message: you can continue to innovate around Crusoe chips because we continue to innovate in our designs. Subtle message: don't worry about Banias, it will be obsolete from the time it is introduced. Overriding message: TMTA is here today to tell you that we value greatly your business and view Asia as very important to our future. We know that Asia is a bigger market for PCs than is the US, and that it will continue to grow faster than the US market. We want to supply chips to Asia.
All in all, a good day's work I would think.
regards, wsh
Nice find, Steak. I have been thinking that the 256-bit chip introduction next year would move TMTA to center stage, and this article seems to confirm it. With such energy consumption decreases, and performance increases, the TM8000 should have no competition from Intel or AMD in mobile devices and truly enable Metapad/OQO devices and their progeny: a "desktop in a box." The Banias will seem a bad joke by comparison. The specs seem to also open the chip to uses in new compact form factor, silent desktops. Wonder if TMTA plans for other versions of 256-bit chips optimized for servers and workstations.
The article makes no mention of delays in the TM6000. During the last CC, it sounded like the SoC was within four months or so of release, and it should find a ready market for blade servers, supercomputing, x86 embedded devices. Guess we will hear more on this soon. I hope it is not delayed simply for marketing reasons.
regards, wsh
"TM6000 and TM8000 are supplied in 2003. TM6000 turns System on a chip. TM8000 carries 256bit VLIW."
This is a quote from a series of three posts on Yahoo this morning by senjenpa (27138-40). I think one of the Japanese links was put through a translator. It is worth reading, but tough going in places.
It appears that the "Astro" will be called the TM8000 and be available in 2003. Unfortunately, it sounds like the TM6000 will be delayed from 2H02 to 2003.
regards, wsh
Asia Pacific fuels chip growth in 2002
But Americas, Europe and Japan still declining
By Mike Magee, 28/05/2002 08:35:30 BST
A REPORT ISSUED by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) body today claims that after a decline in 2001 by 32 per cent, the chip industry expects the market to recover this year.
Figures it issued show that growth on last year's figures will amount to 2.3% - that's accounted for by a predicted 25.7% rebound in the Asia Pacific region.
The Americas, Europe and Japan are still in the chip doldrums, however.
The same figures show that in 2002 "growth" is still in negative figures, at -3.7%, -2.4% and -14.9% respectively.
It won;t be until 2003 that the chip industry finally recovers, bouncing back to double digit growth, said the WSTS.
Then the Americas, Europe, Japan and Asia Pacific are expected to grow year on year by 22.1%, 19.2%, 17.6% and 25.2% respectively.
Memory shows positive growth in 2002, the figures say, growing by 10.2% year on year over the disastrous figure of -49.5% last year. In 2003, that market is expected to grow by 31.2%, year on year.
The WSTS claims to represent around 90% of the entire world semiconductor industry.
Xybernaut Patents on Core Computing
Steak, below is the abstract and primary claim for each of the two Xybernaut patents for core computing. The two patents are very closely related. The full text of the patents is available at the US Patent and Trademark site, http://www.uspto.gov. Go the the patent databases, and insert the patent number(s).
As you will see, XYBR claims a core computer unit, which includes the various components of a conventional computer, but which is non-functional until it is electrically connected to one of a number of specially designed enclosures. Once so connected, a funtional computer is realized.
As I understand the MetaPad/Antelope MCC, the core and enclosure(s) seem to be covered by the XBYR patents. Conversely, the OQO is a fully functional computer, one which does not need a connection to an enclosure to be functional. For this reason, such a device and/or its enclsosures seems to be outside the scope of the XYBR patents. It is not clear if patent circumvention was the aim of OQO, or a fortuitous outcome of using a "PDA-like" computer as the base of the system, rather than a core.
US Pat No. 5,999,952; Issued 12/7/99
Core computer unit
Abstract:
This invention provides a core computer unit that contains all of the components of a conventional computer however will not function unless it is positioned in an enclosure. The enclosure dictates the computer function, the core unit supplies the computer components. The core unit remains dormant and non-functional until it is positioned in a compatible enclosure.
Primary claim:
A core computer unit comprising in combination a completely enclosed housing, internal core components in said housing, and an external core connector, said internal core components comprising, except for a display, all of the components of a conventional computer, including internal non-volatile mass storage means, all in electrical connection with said external core connector, said core computer unit having power connection means via said external core connector for electrical connection to an enclosure, without attachment to said enclosure said core computer unit is dormant and non-functional as a computer, said core computer unit not originally a component of a computer but a free standing unit originally not part of a computer, with said electrical connection said core computer unit supplying any desired computer function dictated by a plurality of different enclosures, said core devoid of any peripheral ports but having means to cooperate with said enclosure to supply a computer function to peripherals which are only in direct communication with said enclosure, said core computer unit having means to retain stored information even when separated from said enclosure, said stored information usable in said core computer unit with said plurality of different enclosures, said external core connectors having means adapted to cooperate with a connector in said enclosure to provide said electrical connection between said core computer unit and said enclosure, and wherein all of said internal core components in said core housing are completely enclosed therein and may not be removed, said core computer unit having means to be used interchangeably with a plurality of different type and structured enclosures and not being a removable or replacement portion or component of a computer.
USPat No 6,029,183; Issued 2/22/2000
Transferable core computer
Abstract:
A computer system is disclosed having two structures, a mobile core unit and an enclosure capable of enclosing and cooperating with the core unit. The core unit has all of the components of a general purpose computer except for a display and source of power. This core unit by itself is non-functional as a computer unless it is in electrical contact with the enclosure. The enclosure has several connector ports for attachment of peripherals to the system.
Primary claim:
1. A computer system comprising at least two separate compatible structures, a first structure or core unit and a second structure or enclosure, at least one first structure or core unit being a single completely closed housing having internally therein components of a fully functional conventional general purpose computer including internal non-volatile mass storage means, said first structure not originally being an integral component of a computer but a free standing independent structure, said first structure or core unit not functional as a computer when standing alone, said first structure having means for connection to said second structure or enclosure, said first structure having means to retain stored information, even when separated from said second structure, said first structure devoid of any ports while only said second structure comprises peripheral connector ports to cooperate with said first structure, said first structure having means to be used with totally new and different type structured enclosures than said second structure, neither said first nor second structure operable as a computer without combination or electrical contact with the other, wherein all of said components in said core housing are completely enclosed therein and may not be removed, and wherein said second structure is always a part of another third structure.
regards, wsh
Steak, OT re WCOM
Thanks for your comments. I got in at a time where it seemed to be a screaming deal(an asp of $1.24), so have done pretty well in ten days. Yet, I ponder what to do in the short term.
Your analogy to turning a huge ship is a great one. The stock seems destined to gain and fill in small increments for months. Yet, assuming the two matters I mentioned get resolved, in my DD WCOM is worth a heck of a lot more than its present market cap.
One program under way might really get the stock price moving, the MCI Neighborhood. As you probably know, long distance carriers can now offer local telephone service in the US, and there is a lot of regulatory pressure on incumbent telcos (ILECs)to offer access at fair pricing. T and WCOM stand to benefit, and the MCI Neighborhood plan is looking like a big hit so far in markets where it is being offered.
It will be fun to watch S&P squirm as WCOM rises from the ashes.
regards, wsh
Steak, re the XYBR Patents
". . . the core seems to be possible with IBM patents alone."
I have some experience in this area, and I very much doubt that the Core computer can be used or sold without infringement of XYBR patents. (The OQO is a different story, btw. I think that device probably, narrowly, escapes XYBR's patents because it is a fully functional computer, not a core).
What I think is going on is that XYBR has been supported by IBM for the past few years and has a number of agreements in place. I think IBM has a license to the XYBR patents for the Core computer, including the ability to grant sublicenses to its (IBM's) customers. It is likely that IBM has additionally developed proprietary technology (patent(s) and copyrighted code) to allow XYBR's Core concept to actually work. If this is the case, XYBR will benefit from licenses issued by IBM to Antelope and others, but will not be directly licensing to them. XYBR probably retains the right to grant separate licenses for Core computing, but without the IBM value added. Perhaps XYBR could license someone like OQO who already has worked out a functional ultra PC and does not need IBM's technology.
Just my US$0.02.
regards, wsh
BB, great find!
" . . .may be a glimpse of USA/Euro Christmas ad for later this year."
Think you have mailed it my friend. What effect do you think Sony ads for the Vaio U on US TV would have in boardrooms for GTW, HPQ and DELL? Emergency sessions would be my guess. Will these be emergency sessions before or after the emergency sessions for the OQO introduction?
regards, wsh
Bird, Antelope Technologies appears little more than a d/b/a for Liteye Microdisplay Systems, LLC. This is getting interesting.
There is no telephone listing for Antelope Technologies in Littleton or anywhere else for that matter. See, eg, switchboard.com
There is, however, a real but very small business in Littleton, CO, run by Kenneth Geyer:
Liteye Microdisplay Systems, LLC
12415 Dumont Way
Unit #103
Littleton, CO 80125
United States of America
Phone: 303-470-8049
Here is a very interesting article from the Denver Business Journal May 10, 2002
High Tech: Wireless, Palms & PDAs
From the May 10, 2002 print edition
The Denver Business Journal
IBM picks Liteye for display project
The Littleton-based company, which makes miniature microdisplays, custom projects and thermal imaging systems, just signed an agreement with the hardware giant to build IBM's headset design.
'We were attracted to Liteye because of their excellent mix of business and technical skills combined with their 'can-do' attitude,' said John Olschon, business development manager for IBM research.
An earlier version of the design was made famous a couple of years ago by a commercial featuring a man on a park bench who was wearing a headset and yelling 'buy' and 'sell' into the breeze -- presumably as he monitored stock quotes on the display.
The agreement marks the newest wave of this design, which will produce a smaller, sleeker, lighter and higher-resolution headset display, said Liteye vice president of development, Kenneth Geyer.
'We're joining their cutting-edge designs with our high-performance display technology,' he said. 'The two of those will create a brand-new type of headset.'
The head-mounted displays boast an impressive list of statistics, according to Geyer. For instance, the 8-ounce display has a 38-degree field of view.
'It's like looking at a 52-inch TV right in front of your eye,' he said.
Additionally, the miniature displays -- which can be worn over either eye -- have an 800 by 600 resolution, which means that the user can see everything on the display that can be seen on a laptop or desktop computer.
A single cable runs into the headset, allowing both computer and video applications. Users can view video from any source -- including a DVD player, a thermal imager, or a video camera, Geyer said.
He added that the headset displays run on two double-A batteries for 10 to 12 hours.
Though the price is not yet set in stone, the new headsets will probably cost about $2,000 and will be marketed to government and industry.
'One day, it'll be targeted toward the commercial market or the retail market for the consumer, but right now our biggest push will be the industrial applications,' Geyer said.
Some of these applications include materials handling, medical, maintenance, military, engineering and sales -- 'basically, these units come in handy anywhere where you need both hands free but you still want to see either your video or your computer information,' he said.
Demand for the Liteye/IBM hybrid already is high, according to Geyer. He said the company has between 2,000 and 3,000 client orders, though the first building cycle doesn't begin until June.
Liteye anticipates a significant amount of revenue from this new product -- somewhere in the range of $2.5 million to $3 million before the end of the year, based on current clients and orders. Although Liteye does have some competition in the field, such as Tech Gear and MicroOptical, its arrangement with IBM will allow the company to stay one step ahead of the pack, Geyer said.
'They have nothing like what we're doing with IBM,' he said. 'Nothing with this resolution, field of view, or this low of power draw. We're leaps ahead in that area.'
Liteye, which employs six to eight people depending on its work load, considers this innovation a big accomplishment, considering the fact that the company only just recently outgrew its 'mom and pop' status.
In fact, Liteye grew by nearly 1,000 percent from last year to present, though Geyer was reluctant to disclose details about the revenues of the private company. The growth came as a result of sales to the military, law enforcement and security organizations in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
Geyer expects the new licensing agreement to open lots of doors for Liteye -- and advance the field of wearable computing.
'That's where this product is very exciting,' he said. 'It will open up all kinds of different areas and different industries.'
IBM said it has a lot to gain from the agreement, as well.
The company often licenses it technologies to other companies to allow them to manufacture products based on those technologies, which is a big money-maker for IBM. In fact, in 2001, the company made $1.5 billion through licensing its patents, according to Olschon.
'We look forward to working with Liteye to take IBM technology from the lab into the marketplace,' he said.
Whois listing for antelope.com:
Registrant:
Liteye Systems (HOPVGAUJCD)
12415 Dumont Way, unit 103
Littleton, CO 80125
US
Domain Name: ANTELOPETECH.COM
Administrative Contact:
Liteye Systems (CZQCZXTHTO) 1. ken@liteye.com
Liteye Systems
12415 Dumont Way, unit 103
Littleton, CO 80125
US
3033242316 fax: 3034708153
Technical Contact:
Scott, Tom (TS2522) stom7@QWEST.NET
Liteye Microdisplay Systems
12415 Dumont Way #103
Littleton, CO 80125
US
303 470 8049
Record expires on 01-Feb-2003.
Record created on 01-Feb-2002.
Database last updated on 23-May-2002 01:08:05 EDT.
Domain servers in listed order:
LANDWARRIOR.NET 63.228.75.145
NS1.CYBER-HIGH.NET 63.228.75.146
Company Contact:
Main number: 720-344-4313
Kenneth Geyer
President
1. kageyer@antelopetech.com
David Witt
Chief Operating Officer
dewitt@antelopetech.com
Tom Scott
Chief Technology Officer
tpscott@antelopetech.com
Anna Cole
Vice President
accole@antelopetech.com
Stephen Guyer
Chief Financial Officer
Investor Relations
csguyer@antelopetech.com
Liteye Microdisplay Systems, LLC
12415 Dumont Way
Unit #103
Littleton, CO 80125
United States of America
Phone: 303-470-8049
FAX:
303-470-8153
EMAIL:
info@liteye.com
Great post, Bird. I am still laughing. Sounds like I should have gone to Ibiza on holiday twenty years ago. Heck, I should go there now, if only to live vicariously!
regards, weaks
Bird, I find the Antelope introduction puzzling also.
Lots of qustions. Who are these guys and what is their connection with IBM? Why market to vertical markets and government, and compete with the Tablet PC introductions marketing to the same verticals, when there is so much more potential in horizontal markets? Then, the price estimate and seemingly insisting on packaging all of the possible accessories as a "kit."
Another strange aspect is the licensing. Antelope announces a non-exclusive license to the technology from IBM, yet the computer core technology is patented and held by Xybernaut.
IBM has some rights to the particular hardware and software, but the real rights are held by XYBR. Yet, no mention of this company. So, IBM's stock goes up and XYBR's continues to tank.
BTW, is this the group you got an early whisper about, which you mentioned a couple of months ago? I am looking forward to the announcment of another license to a more consumer oriented company; eg Sony.
regards, wsh
"Evita, reminiscent of the charisma and beauty of one of the most revered Argentinean personalities ..."
Nice find Bird, but I had to chuckle over the quote above. In US advertising, if a company wrote something like that a week later they get a letter from an attorney alleging misappropriation of the right of publicity by the heirs of Evita Peron, or, maybe, even Madonna!
regards, wsh
Knowjack, the WSJ ad must have been for one of Intel's four ultra-low v PIII processors: 800, 750, 733 and 700 MHz. However, to achieve low voltage, each takes a big step down in speed once the chip senses DC. Eg, the PIII 700ULV steps down to 300MHz once the plug is pulled. Kind of like a time warp back to state of the art performance for 1998. INTC and its OEMs try to keep this information hidden in the back closet, which is a real restraint on TMTA's penetration into mobile markets.
See: http://support.intel.com/support/processors/mobile/pentiumiii/tti004.htm
This was the issue 1stfife was raising so vociferously on INTC and AMD boards. If you missed it, read his posts from around #1169 ("Hey FTC, the Cow Lied to Me!") forward. Great stuff, but really an important issue that needs more exposure.
regards, wsh
Knowjack, TMTA should get a big share if not the bulk of the Tablet PC business, but most of the activity is still in the R&D stage.
As you probably know, MSFT is attempting to control the Tablet PC marketplace by signing up authorized OEMs and requiring minimum standards for performance. This includes a clock speed of 600MHz minimum (if I recall) and certain battery life. To date, MSFT has only named TMTA and INTC as authorized chip suppliers for Tablets. Now that MSFT has announced an Oct 2002 date for introductions of Tablet PCs, things should really speed up.
As for OEMs using Crusoes, we know so far of: PaceBlade (PaceBook), FIC (Aquapad), and the new startup Motion Computing. A few weeks back Toshiba announced tablet-like models. SONICblue builds a tablet with the Crusoe, and so does Innolabs (Evita I think) and Hitachi. Compaq has indicated it was introducing a Tablet PC, and there have been rumors they would use the Crusoe.
The Acer on display at CEO Summit uses a INTC chip, but I doubt it reaches MSFT's performance requirements on DC. Also, it really is a laptop than can function like a Tablet.
In the next few weeks we should know much more about actual Tablet PCs headed to market. Some may be introduced next month at TechXNY (formerly PC Expo). My hunch is that many if not most will be Crusoe-based. Just think about Tablet PCs as would an engineer. A Tablet PC in Gate's image is a true tablet, not a convertible laptop. A TFT screen sits right on top of a fully functional PC in small and enclosed space. A big chip (600-800MHz) is required, but noise must be minimized (no fans). The unit is to be hand held so it cannot get too hot to the touch. It is supposed to have six hours of battery life (probably no one will reach this target). So, what chip do you use? If I was the designer, and I knew I would have no problems with supply, specing the Crusoe at 900MHz would be a no-brainer.
regards, wsh
Article on MSFT's CEO Summit
NB: note hightlighted section below.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134459636_summit23.html
Tablet coming in October: Executives get glimpse at future of PCs
By Brier Dudley
Seattle Times technology reporter
The Tablet PC, a new type of computer that Microsoft hopes will rejuvenate industry sales and broaden computer usage, will go on sale in October, Chairman Bill Gates disclosed yesterday at his annual CEO Summit.
Gates has shown early versions of the Tablet during speeches for several years, but until yesterday the company had been vague about when it will be ready to sell.
Gates let slip the October launch while discussing how speech- and handwriting-recognition technology will make computers easier and more useful.
"We expect these new natural interfaces will be mainstream literally within the next several years,' he said.
Gates is hosting approximately 100 chief executive officers at the two-day, sixth annual technology forum. After briefings at Microsoft's Redmond campus, the executives rode a charter boat from Kirkland to Gates' waterfront mansion in Medina for a dinner of Washington asparagus salad, grilled halibut or lamb and Washington wines.
The executives were also lent early versions of the Tablet PC to use during their visit.
Tablet PCs are similar to laptop computers, but they will come with advanced handwriting-recognition software and a special display screen that works with an electronic pen for taking notes.
Microsoft developed a special version of its Windows XP operating system to run Tablet PCs. The devices are being built to Microsoft specifications by computer companies such as Acer and Toshiba and expected to sell for about $2,000.
Gates said the note-taking function will make Tablets less awkward to use at meetings and better for spontaneously writing a note or annotating a document and sending it to a friend or co-worker.
Handwriting recognition is a tricky software problem, and Gates told of how left-handed users tend to take longer to cross their t's, confusing early versions of the Tablet software.
"I'm left-handed, and so our Tablet teams definitely have gotten a lot of feedback about making sure they can recognize left-handers," he said.
A longtime goal of computer science is to develop simpler ways than a keyboard and mouse to get information in and out of computers, and Gates said his company is spending more than $4 billion annually researching these technologies. He said it's part of an effort to add more functions to computers while at the same time reducing their complexity.
Several executives selected to address reporters at the summit were enthusiastic about the Tablet PC, but Procter & Gamble CEO A.G. Lafley acknowledged it took several tries to understand one of the words he had written.
"If I can do it, everyone can do it,' said Toys R Us CEO John Eyler. "I think this comes as second nature. It's very easy to use."
Eyler also mentioned that his sales of Microsoft's Xbox game console quadrupled last week after the price came down from $299 to $199.
Other executives attending included Disney's Michael Eisner, eBay's Meg Whitman, Hewlett-Packard's Carly Fiorina and Gateway's Ted Waitt.
The Tablet PC is one of several new formats for PC technology envisioned by Microsoft. For the company, such devices would broaden the usefulness of its software and create markets beyond the desktop PC, sales of which have flattened or even declined.
Microsoft is already selling television control boxes, the Xbox video-game console and handheld computers based on Windows.
Debuting later this year are phone-computer combination devices and detachable, flat-panel computer monitors designed to enable users to control PCs and access e-mail and digital media wirelessly from around their homes.
On the horizon are PCs for cars, PC-based stereos and home-security systems, according to slides that Gates showed the CEOs. Also displayed was a computer monitor three times the width of a standard display.
Gates also explained how business processes would be streamlined using software based on XML, a programming standard that allows computers to interact and share data on their own without a person controlling the exchange. Gates said Microsoft will have invested $10 billion in XML-related technology within a few years.
To lighten his speech, Gates poked fun at former Enron CEO Jeffrey Skilling. He said that at least year's summit Skilling had given some of the "pearls of wisdom."
On a slide, Gates showed a quote from Skilling saying that business is moving so fast "you don't need a strategic-planning function anymore."
Smirking, Gates said it was an "interesting insight," drawing chuckles from the crowd.
Re WCOM
Steak, glanta, I have been accumulating WCOM since last Tues, and it presently is my second largest holding. After Tuesday's loan approval, I believe most of the real risk has been removed from the stock.
There really are only two serious risks facing WCOM at present: There is the risk whether the $5B credit line will go through, and what might come out of the ongoing SEC investigation.
The news on Tues. that the banks signed the $1.5B secured line answered for me whether the $5B would be extended. Why would banks take that action if they were not fully intending to grant the extension (after getting certain concessions, capex cuts, and securities worked out with Sidgmore).
The second risk is much harder to handicap, but bits and pieces floating around seem to me to suggest that a deal with the SEC is in the offing. Likely a number of recent actions by WCOM are part of such a deal: Ebbers leaving, termination of A Anderson and retaining KPMG, and the details of how Ebbers is to repay loan (tied to his retirement).
Otherwise, Sidgmore and the management team seem to have a great handle on what needs to be done (eg, cutting capex, trimming assets, reassuring customers, reassuring lenders). The MCI dividend issue has already been dealt with. I suspect they will use this opportunity to also make big cuts in the workforce.
BTW, WCOM's website has the recent CC's for replay, and they are well worth listening to. I get the feeling that this ship is well on its way to being righted.
I see the stock quickly moving to around $3 - $3.50. After that, hard to know. With 2B shares trading in recent days, it is hard to understand the dynamics of future movements. Nonetheless, the stock has not been damaged in any fundamental way, and actions by management should result in a stronger company eventually. I see no reason why WCOM will not rebound to historic levels. If so, it is one heck of an investment between now and $5.00.
regards, wsh
Another annoying article from Magree/The Inquirer, but I guess it gets TMTA's name in (digital)print.
http://www.theinquirer.net/23050216.htm
". . . Nor would Bergman talk about Transmeta implementations for mobile phones, nor system on a chip; even though we know that its PC-on-a-chip looks like it's an abandoned project."
Why does the Inquirer persist in pushing this clearly wrong information. They must be referring to the TM6000, and the SoC is going to find its way into all sorts of devices, not the least of which will be RLX's blade servers.
On that last point did anyone else notice (in an article in the past week sometime) that there is under development a new version of CMS tailored for the needs of servers? Wonder if that is the start of a trend to be followed by other tailored versions of CMS to reduce latency in various non-PC applications of SoC.
regards, wsh
Microsoft taps CEOs to test Tablet PCs
By Margaret Kane
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
May 22, 2002, 7:45 AM PT
http://news.com.com/2100-1040-920190.html
Microsoft is planning to hand out Tablet PCs to attendees at its CEO Summit on Wednesday, giving top-level executives a chance to test-drive the new technology.
With its Tablet PC software, the tech titan is aiming to boost the appeal of pen-based devices by making them more in keeping with full-fledged notebook computers. The latest version combines Microsoft's Windows XP operating system with a pen interface and handwriting-recognition software. Devices using the software will have special displays but otherwise use standard notebook processors and other PC components, which will help to cut down on costs.
Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates promoted the technology at last fall's Comdex show, holding it up as a sign of hope amid a declining PC market and an economic downturn. Compaq Computer, NEC, Toshiba, Intel and other companies all showed off prototypes at the tech event.
More recently, Motion Computing, a start-up founded by former Dell Computer executives, announced plans to manufacture tablet PC devices starting later this year. Other companies are expected to make Tablet PC announcements next month at the PC Expo show.
At Microsoft's CEO conference, the more than 100 attendees will receive beta versions of tablet devices, a Microsoft representative said. The Tablet PCs will be used in conjunction with smart cards, that will identify each CEO with his or her specific machine, and will provide access to slides and other presentation materials. The executives will be able to take notes on the devices using the pens, and save the information through a universal serial bus "keychain" storage device, the representative said.
Microsoft said that the tablets being handed out Wednesday are made by Acer, which is calling them the TravelMate 100.
(Ed: this, I think, is the Acer convertible laptop with PIIIM Intel chip).
Despite occasional hoopla over pen-based machines, consumers and other technology buyers have been lukewarm toward the idea so far. IBM recently phased out its ThinkPad TransNote, a machine that captured handwriting written with a special pen, and Sony put the kibosh on its high-end Vaio Slimtop Pen Tablet PC.
CNN picks up Green Destiny story. The board is going to have to send Dr. Feng a thank you note.
http://www.cnn.com/2002/TECH/industry/05/21/supercomputing.future.idg/index.html
Bell, Torvalds usher next wave of supercomputing
By Ashlee Vance
IDG News Service/San Francisco Bureau (IDG)
Some of the IT world's top luminaries gathered here at Los Alamos National Laboratory Friday to witness the unveiling of a compact supercomputer that proponents say could provide the model for high-performance computing systems in the years ahead.
Gordon Bell, one of the original brains behind the minicomputer, and Linus Torvalds, creator of the Linux operating system, joined a collection of scientists for the unveiling of the supercomputer, a Beowolf cluster called Green Destiny that was built from hundreds of so-called blade servers -- compact servers stripped down to their most basic components.
Using server blades, Los Alamos scientists were able to build a system that is much smaller, consumes less power and is more cost-effective than typical supercomputers, according to Wu-chun Feng, team leader of the Research And Development In Advanced Network Technology (RADIANT) group at Los Alamos.
"(Current supercomputers) are not addressing some of the fundamental issues that will be key for this coming decade," Feng said. "Simply doing bigger, faster machines is not good enough any more."
Unlike many supercomputers which use specialized components and can fill entire buildings, the Green Destiny fits 240 server blades from RLX Technologies Inc. into a server rack that would fit inside most closets. The blades use low-powered processors from Transmeta Corp. and a version of the Linux operating system.
The system consumes far less power than other supercomputers and should also require less maintenance, according to Feng. Using server blades meant trade-offs were made for overall CPU performance and internal bandwidth between components, but the research effort is still in its relatively early stages, he said.
A smaller version of Green Destiny called MetaBlade has been up and running for nine months without a failure, unlike other systems, which require "regular maintenance," Feng said.
The engineers who developed the systems here said they preferred to use Crusoe processors from Transmeta because they don't rely on boosting transistor count to achieve faster performance, which they said it the case with chips from rivals Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) and Intel Corp.
"In contrast to the traditional transistor-laden and hence power-hungry CPUs from AMD and Intel, the Crusoe CPU is fundamentally software-based with a small hardware core," Feng wrote in a white paper about his project, which is available on the Web.
"Because of the substantial difference in power dissipation, the Transmeta processor requires no active cooling, whereas a Pentium 4 (and most definitely an IA-64) processor can heat to the point of failure if its not aggressively cooled," he wrote.
Intel and AMD were not immediately available to comment.
Some of the high-performance systems at Los Alamos use massive cooling systems to keep them working. The Green Destiny, however, sits in a dusty warehouse here where temperatures often exceed 80 degrees.
Bell, who is now a senior researcher at Microsoft Corp., attended the event because Green Destiny is in keeping with his passion for making high-powered computing systems as cost-effective and readily available as possible, he said.
"I was the guy who screwed up scientific computing by putting VAX out there," Bell said in a speech, referring to his work on Digital Equipment Corp.'s VAX minicomputer, which in the 1970s helped lower the price bar for high-performance systems. "Groups of scientists could have their own computers out of the hands of big centers. This phenomenon is happening all over again."
In this vein, Feng also proposed that a new technique is needed for measuring the performance of supercomputers. Instead of looking primarily at how many calculations a system can run in a given amount of time, researchers should also consider factors such as downtime, size, price and maintenance requirements, he said.
Based on these measures, Feng said the smaller MetaBlade system would cost $33,000 to purchase and operate for four years, compared to $120,000 for a comparable Pentium 4-based computer and $93,000 for a Pentium III-based system. The premium paid for the Pentium-based systems stems primarily from additional costs for system administration, the amount of power consumed and cooling costs, according to Feng.
Intel and AMD could come up with interesting techniques to cool their chips in the coming years, Feng said, but he urged fellow scientists to look hard at alternatives to speeding chips by adding more transistors, which tends to generate more heat. He didn't say that he had solved the problem with Green Destiny, but that his team's efforts are an important first move in the right direction.
"This type of project could serve as the foundation for the supercomputers of the future, but there is a lot of work to be done before then," he said.
Linux in native mode on TMTA chips?
Bird, some time ago, perhaps 2Q2000 or so, I recall reading speculation that Linus T was working on a new version of Linux which would run in native mode on TMTA chips (ie, without the need for CMS). Such an OS would be very fast and particularly suitable for servers and high-end processing. Unfortunately, that is the last that I heard about it. Do you have any insights?
The LANL Green Destiny got me thinking about this, as, if the OS existed, I would think that RLX would want to sell it and LANL would use it. Perhaps the hardware design for the TM56/5800 is inimicable to Linux in native mode. Perhaps such capability is being designed into the TM6000 and Astro. I sure hope so.
regards, wsh
TSMC's research chief mulls next-gen process knots
By EE Times
May 17, 2002 (8:56 AM)
URL: http://www.eetimes.com/story/OEG20020517S0044
About this time last year, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. closed a deal with a far-reaching impact on its position in the semiconductor industry: It wooed the influential Chen-ming Hu away from the University of California at Berkeley. As chief technology officer, Hu juggles the process headaches of tomorrow, overseeing 30 TSMC engineers whose mission is to come up with ways around the obstacles that await designers at the 65-nanometer node and beyond. In an exclusive interview with EE Times Taiwan bureau chief Mike Clendenin, Hu shared his thoughts on the process challenges, the economic hurdles of scaling and the markets on which the world's top foundry will build its future.
EE Times: During a recent TSMC seminar, you went to great lengths to explain that the limits to technology are far off. But let's look at it in another way: Could one argue that the economic challenges of scaling may be the more difficult obstacle to overcome in the near future, especially for small companies with low volumes?
Chen-ming Hu: It's clear that if there is no economic benefit to scaling, then it isn't going to happen. It's interesting that the last few generations of scaling have continued to reduce the cost for the manufacturers and for the buyers of chips, so if there is a limit to scaling as a result of cost then we are not there yet. Are we going to get there sometime? Right now we cannot tell.
Often the economic discussion is phrased in terms of the number of dollars it takes to build a fab. . . . In the early '90s, the concern in the industry was how many companies could afford to build billion-dollar fabs. But not long after that, in the mid-'90s, the concern changed 180 degrees: There were too many of those billion-dollar, 8-inch fabs being built. There was a glut that created a price depression. That was a good lesson to learn.
As long as this trend of building larger fabs-using more-advanced technology-continues to reduce overall cost, then the investment will be there to build these fabs. Today, the cost has increased to $3 billion to $4 billion, and that still has not stopped companies from investing.
In the future, the upper limit of the size of the fab will probably be determined by risk management. It will probably be better to build two $5 billion fabs instead of one $10 billion fab. So far, economic concerns, in terms of return on investment, have not shown that the path we're on is not the right path.
EET: Can you now address the guys who need to do smaller volumes but still need to deal with what will become multimillion-dollar mask sets?
Hu: It is a problem. The rising cost of masks is becoming an increasing concern to the smaller users of these advanced technologies. Regardless of the volume, the user can always benefit from the reduced cost per die. However, the nonrecurring-engineering cost is something that will be hard for small-volume users to bear.
The Cyber Shuttle program [which places multiple ICs on a single wafer for prototyping] has made it a lot easier and economical for small-volume users to do prototyping. Unfortunately, at this point, Cyber Shuttle is not yet a solution for production mask costs.
There are some innovative ways that we are investigating to leverage the Cyber Shuttle infrastructure to make small-volume production. We are not ready to talk about the specifics, but there are ways to implement it. [No time line for introduction has been fixed.]
The longer-term solution will have to come from technology again. There is maskless lithography technology that is not necessarily very far off. Perhaps in five or six years we could be looking at maskless lithography, and that would be a relief for small-volume production and prototyping.
EET: There is a handful of options being investigated for patterning wafers, such as electron-beam lithography or extreme-ultraviolet lithography. In the future, how do you see these competing candidates interacting?
Hu: I suppose you can say these compete, but sometimes they may complement each other because some of the layers can be done more easily with one technology while others can more easily be done with other technology. So it's likely that we will be using multiple lithography technologies in the future depending on the layers.
We are also looking at the continuing option of optical lithography, such as 157 nanometer. All of these are being investigated, partly because we think a combination of them may be used.
EET: As you look at the 65-nanometer node and beyond, what worries you most in developing process technology?
Hu: It is difficult to order the challenges in terms of difficulty. Each of several problems really looks difficult, and until we solve them and look backward, we can't say with any degree of confidence that one is more difficult than the other.
Lithography is certainly a challenge. Reliability and maintenance of high yield continue to be a challenge. Leakage current, both through the gate and through source and drain, is a challenge. And finally, the rising power dissipation is a challenge.
One common characteristic of these challenges is that while they all present very difficult engineering problems, fundamental physics does not tell us that we are nearing the limit.
EET: You mention gate leakage. Right now there are two options out there for addressing this problem: high-k gate dielectrics and double-gated structures. How do you foresee these two solutions being implemented?
Hu: Fundamentally these two approaches solve two somewhat different problems. The high-k dielectric solves the problem of leakage between the gate electrode and the channel or source or drain. The double-gate structure solves the problem of leakage current between drain and source. . . . At some point, we will need both of these things to take us far.
As to the question of which will be taken to manufacturing first, if I had to venture a guess I would think high-k dielectric will be brought to the manufacturing floor first, partly because gate leakage appears to be the more urgent problem.
EET: A few have suggested otherwise-that double-gate could come first.
Hu: I'm not surprised to hear that. These are complementary things; whichever can be brought to practice first, will be. High-k technology is the one that has been researched more thoroughly and, indeed, it has proven to be more difficult than most people expected.
In contrast, the double-gate structure has not received as much R&D effort from as wide a community, so from that point of view, if you are an optimist, then you could say that the double-gate has more of an opportunity of succeeding just because not the same amount of effort has been put into it. If you are a pessimist, you might say that once we put more effort into it we might notice some more difficulties.
But both are attractive, and eventually both will need to be done.
EET: From your research at TSMC, what is the most meaningful challenge in working with high-k?
Hu: It is the quality of the interface-more specifically, the mobility, the transport properties of the electrons and holes at that interface. The interface quality between high-k and silicon is still not as good as the quality of the silicon dioxide interface that we have come to expect as being the norm. It is a tough benchmark to measure any new technology against.
EET: Are you leaning more toward hafnium oxide or zirconium oxide as the high-k material of choice?
Hu: We are not certain. The option is still wide open at this time.
EET: What roles will silicon-on-insulator and strained silicon have in the industry?
Hu: The prevalence of SOI in the future IC industry is still an unanswered question. What Intel decides to do with this technology will have a large impact on the degree of acceptance of the technology by the industry.
It is likely that for a fairly long time, SOI and bulk technology will coexist. It is also likely, over this period of coexistence, that bulk technology will be the mainstream and that SOI will hold the minority market share while slowly gaining [on bulk technology].
This coexistence will likely be very long. So it is prudent for TSMC to develop SOI technology and be prepared to meet the demand for the technology when the market shows up.
EET: Will there be a real need at the foundries for this if you're not producing the high-performance transistors used in multigigahertz processors?
Hu: Indeed, we don't see a lot of interest in SOI. Most of our customers are happy with the 0.13-micron technology, and they are starting to look at design for 90 nm, so there is still a lot of opportunity for customers to get better product performance from the available bulk technologies.
EET: Could you say the same thing about strained silicon at the foundries?
Hu: Strained silicon could be more prevalent than SOI technology in the future. It depends on the cost of the strained-silicon substrate. If a low-cost technology can be developed, then the barrier for entry is actually quite low.
Strained silicon is more of an unknown than SOI at this point so it is difficult to predict the cost of a strained-silicon substrate, but there is the potential that some flavor of strained silicon could be a widely used enhancement of the IC technology.
EET: Foundries have been catching up in process technology with the likes of Intel, but at the end of the day the foundries are said to have a more plain-vanilla process because you have to satisfy so many diverse customers. With that in mind, do you ever see TSMC's catching up to Intel in raw transistor performance-or to the likes of IBM, which is usually at the forefront of introducing new materials?
Hu: IBM and Intel are longstanding technology leaders in the industry. I do not think that TSMC necessarily wants to surpass those leaders. We would be happy just to achieve parity and allow our customers to achieve comparable product performance.
The strength of the foundry industry is flexibility and the breadth of applications that it can serve.
EET: As things become more difficult in achieving integration for system-on-chip designs, do you foresee fabless companies and foundries coming closer together?
Hu: As the technology gets more complex, one would think there would be a greater need for communication between designers and the foundry companies. At the same time, the method of communication has been improving, such that I do not see more visits from the fabless companies to TSMC.
One example of the improvement in the method of communication is the e-business initiative that TSMC has undertaken. Designers can now work with a TSMC engineer although the two parties are separated by the Pacific Ocean. They can look at the same design layout or yield data in real-time. They can do virtual testing of the product.
EET: What is TSMC's interest in getting into more sophisticated MEMS [microelectromechanical systems] production?
Hu: TSMC is doing research and investing in future markets. We are producing MEMS products today and we would be interested in taking on more MEMS business, provided the technology that's required is in tune with our basic semiconductor manufacturing technology. . . . I see CMOS technology as a platform on which to put optical devices, MEMS or even carbon nanotubes, just as we are starting to put silicon germanium on it for strained silicon today.
BB, no, I didn't see that note, but it sure is tantalizing. Not sure Motion Computing introducing a Tablet PC is earth shaking, so how about some news from RLX, Compaq or Dell.
I would like to know more about that tradeshow in NYC next month. Might be a launchpad for new TMTA-based mobile devices, and TMTA's stock.
Were you surprised as I to read in the last day or two (not sure what post) that RLX was still getting 60% of its revenue from front-end blade servers using the TM5600 chip. I think this tells us that once RLX gets a steady supply of TM6000s, with ECC, they are going to market the heck out of them. The LANL report should figure prominently in the RLX sales pitch I would think.
regards, wsh
Interesting, BB.
From the article, the CEO is quoted as saying:
" . . world-class designs that leverage technologies that are now mature enough to take mainstream computing to the next level of mobility."
That sure sounds like they are using the TM5800 for their Tablet PC. Would ironic is a Dell offshoot uses TMTA chips.
Does anyone know the dates for the TechXNY tradeshow?
regards, wsh