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Are you kidding? strip out the 1 time NON CASH loss to IPO spansion, they did $.45. Strip out their share of Spansion's loss and it is nearly $.50. Rev was up more than 30% Q over Q. The market thinks highly of exponential growth and I bet this stock is $50 before they report Q1
Smooth, I'd wait For AMD's results before calling them "lame"......Andy doesn't have a clue what AMD did.
Tecate, if AMD reports strong numbers STX or KOMG look good; a non tech company worth looking at is LDSH (i own KOMG and LDSH)
Q4 Vs Q3
DEG
CPU sales were down less than 1%
mobility group
CPU sales were only up 2.9%
it will be interesting to contrast with AMD's Q over Q comparisons. If AMD doesn't impress the street tomorrow, the SOX is going to be one ugly scene.
long term that is still my strategy
I proposed a short term strategy on the Intel board - the AMD puts in question were $30 Feb 06 and unfortunately they didn't hit my buy price :(
Posted by: highlandpk
In reply to: alan81 who wrote msg# 23725
Date:1/6/2006 2:56:21 PM
Post #of 23987
I've been watching your Feb options. I may actually take a flyer on them if they hit my price target by late next week ($.10-.20) (a little insurance for my long expiration anticipation securities). AMD, since I've been following this saga, has a tendency to run up a lot into earnings week, but often starts tanking a few days prior and regardless of results seems to receive a nice buzz cut in the few days following. If it hits 36-37 next week, my price target probably gets hit. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pull back to 33/34 prior to earnings and 30/31 after. If that happens (i know there a lot of "ifs" in this scenario)those $30 puts could well see somewhere between $1-$2 again. FWIW, Etrade (in Canada anyway) doesn't charge per contract if the price is below $1 - just the $19 trade fee.
--------------------------------------------------------------
I'm thinking about swapping the 07 $40s for 08 $50s (they cost about the same)
I'm also thinking about Feb $27.50 puts as a short term trade to raise some cash in the event AMD is again rewarded with a post earnings haircut.
Spansion will not play a big a role and Q/Q comparisons going forward will be somewhat "revealing".
Ok, get the glass pipe out of your mouth for 2 seconds please. AMD breaks out their segments individually; we know exactly where CPU division stands......what exactly did Itanium lose last Q? flash?.....right.
according to the article, they've revamped the crossbar, it now has 4 cpu ports and they are demonstrating quad core opteron behind closed doors.
In terms of quad core, I think it would be bad business for AMD to pursue quad core on 90nm. The product cost is going to be huge for them. However, Quad core will make lots of sense on 65nm. Note that including a cross bar for quad core is a VERY long way from a production quad core device.
Charlie implied that the product (with the revamped crossbar) is being shown behind closed doors currently. If they get a performance boost similar to when they went DC, woodcrest may not look so competitive in 1 socket config.
Did you notice the actual stamp date on the FX60? I wonder what else AMD has up its sleeve?
For now, most of your list is AMD saying ME too.
they are all improvements over AMD's current offerings Alan, that was my point. Interesting that AMD's current products are superior without these features.......
rumor has it that Intel has already demonstrated a quad core chip.
AMD as well:
The next big one is a revamped crossbar with 4 CPU ports, can you say quad core? I knew you could. They have been shown behind closed doors for a while, but look for a public debut at CeBit with 90nm parts, but I don't think they will productize it until 65nm after mid-year. In fact, they probably will sit on it until needed in the real world rather than pulling a Paxville. Unfair comparison really, AMD QC parts will be the real thing, Paxville wasn't. If Woodcrest lives up to the hype, look for earlier QC parts from AMD, it is a finance choice, not a technical one, do they want to burn the wafer area when they are capacity constrained ?
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=28639
though I've not heard the Intel rumor....link?
wow...really?
WTF said it was?
now that Intel is offering competitive products
huh? which products are you talking about? outside of mobile, where they actually have a good but way too expensive product, the current intel product portfolio is garbage and will remain so for another 6-9 months. Then, if everything goes perfectly, they will have a good core and the same shitty platform. Of course, during that time, AMD will be adding silicon germanium, ddr2, pacifica, 65nm, larger cache.......quad core opteron will be demonstrated before woodcrest ships in volume. oops, almost forgot 64 bit dual core turion running at 2.4ghz and less than 35 watts. how will the 32 bit yonah look compared to that in 3 months?
FYI
CPU division sales:
2002 - $1.756 billion
2003 - $1.959 billion
2004 - $2.658 billion
2005 - $3.8xx billion (estimate, but we won't need to wait long)
Revenue growth is clearly accelerating
i speak of the CPU division
20-25 times forward earnings for a company growing revenue at almost 50% YOY is cheap. The market will always pay up (big time) for exponential growth.
are you still holding the Feb 30 puts?
IBM was the first major OEM to use opteron chips.....then sun and HP
so a platform thing...makes sense - much like AMD's next sockets being able to accomodate QC when it is rolled out.
Wouldn't that affect the warranty?
I've been watching your Feb options. I may actually take a flyer on them if they hit my price target by late next week ($.10-.20) (a little insurance for my long expiration anticipation securities). AMD, since I've been following this saga, has a tendency to run up a lot into earnings week, but often starts tanking a few days prior and regardless of results seems to receive a nice buzz cut in the few days following. If it hits 36-37 next week, my price target probably gets hit. I wouldn't be surprised to see it pull back to 33/34 prior to earnings and 30/31 after. If that happens (i know there a lot of "ifs" in this scenario)those $30 puts could well see somewhere between $1-$2 again. FWIW, Etrade (in Canada anyway) doesn't charge per contract if the price is below $1 - just the $19 trade fee.
Hmmm, I wonder if the JFTC knows more about this situation than you????? Ya think......
Just so we're clear, we have no "inside joke". This is my only handle.....period.
oh I'm sure it was from weeks ago, or perhaps something I submitted in primary one.........
WTF cares anyway? This is an investment community not a bloody spelling bee.
Kind of like your "investment advice"
it must be real cold in Ottawa tonight, public thrashings of a fellow intelitubby! you really need to relax Paul, enough of the preaching already.
Google PC rumor.......
http://www.wyse.com/about/news/pr/2005/1102_AMD.asp
+
http://www.eweek.com/article2/0,1895,1907974,00.asp
=
????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
irrespective of profitability, any AMD/Google collaboration would do wonders for AMD's brand awareness.
Bullshit, Intel will be convicted of nothing psychoinvestor and you know it.
cheap shitty beer, perhaps you're right (there is a first for everything), they will probably try to settle.
AMD's capacity is going to take a long time to ramp, possibly all of 2006, and they will be forced to ramp dual core faster than they intended, which will eat up more wafer starts. It will be hard for them to keep up with what Intel has already started.
Hector, in the latest CC, suggested doubling silicon realestate was possible for 2006 - I would consider this a significant increase in capacity.
Secondly, since Intel had no criminal tactics, it's kind of hard to put a crimp on it. They will be doing business just as they used to, and there is no law that states that your inferior competitor has to get a minimum market share, just so that you can't dominate. AMD's market share has a lot of reversing to do over the next year.
Horseshit, they were found guilty of violating anti monopoly laws in Japan and that same evidence is going to help convict them in the US as well....then maybe the EU......
I was wrong about Intel outperforming AMD in terms of stock price
care to make a prediction for 2006?
way out of the money leaps, either calls or puts, are the best way to play high beta stocks.
shorting is a fools game. Anyone with an understanding of simple maths should understand this. Best case scenario = limited gain. worst case scenario depends on available margin. long expiration puts make more sense. Look at GM as an example. People shorting at the 12 month peak (only about 4 months ago) have made 50%. people that bought out of the money leap puts have made as much as 3600% (2008 $20s) in that same time frame. If you really think amd is a bad investment over the next 2 years, i'd look at these.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WVVMD.X
let me guess, you've also been waiting, with bated breath, for the moment when an investment in Intel returns more than an investment in AMD?
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=amd&time=10&freq=2
LOL......you'll be waiting a long time for that.........
particularly when dual core 64 bit turions piss on the yonah parade
more like the lack of 64 bits is inconvenient.
right, so 64 bits are useful when convenient and useless when convenient...lol....brilliant.
it's always the same story....next time......next year.......NGA.......manufacturing superiority.....
if they're so smart, how come AMD investors are getting so rich?
so why the itanium then?
Dell has a special vendor-managed-inventory
(VMI) arrangement with its suppliers: suppliers
decide how much inventory to order and when to
order while Dell sets target inventory levels and
records suppliers’ deviations from the targets.
this contradicts your earlier comment
They double order at times, especially if they feel they may not be able to have adequate supply.
have you completely lost your mind? They cancelled the order because they are running inventory levels at 2x normal; I think it is pretty obvious they are having trouble in the mid/high end desk top space.
AMD's CPU division grew revenue approx 30% in 2004 and are on pace to grow CPU revenue at 46% in 2005. If growth accelerates as much in 2006 (%) as it did in 2005, CPU sales will be up more than 70% and operating earnings will be more than $2 per share. Given the size of the market AMD's products address and the rate at which they are growing, the market will reward them with a fat multiple of say 30-50 times ttm earnings. There is ZERO chance Intel grows aggregate revenue at 70% and a good chance they will only grow revenue in the mobile sector - sales over the last 9 months in their digital enterprise group (or whatever they call the non mobile CPU division) are essentially flat over same period i 2004.
it was company specific. Q4 is apparently going to be better than expected.....rev up 15% over Q3.....
more buyers than sellers ;)
upgrade from think equity, $36 target (from previous target of $22)
I agree 100% that flash makes sense for small portable devices - a lot of that has to do with file management as well as form factor, low power et al. I was suggesting that it doesn't make sense (price/GB)in the lap top, dvdr, game console, pc or server world. People will always take more for less $$ given the option.