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Joe here is another possibility. We form a tight trading range just under the highs of 1015 in SPX and 1780 in nsadaq. Daytraders buying the dips in the uptrend and sellers coming in at 1010 or so. This could last 3-4 days as massive number of stop orders continue to accumulate above 1015 SPX. Then a week or so from now we blow through the stops and put on our final wave up to this great rally. VIX tags 16 confounding the bears. That's how I read the tea leaves from where I stand right now.
Ace in the hole Saddam Husein gets picked up sometime over the next 2 weeks helpin out the bulls.
The news is priced in only when the market tells you. So far the market is telling us that all the good news has not been priced in. There are still many don't belive the recovery. When they become believers and the market action confirms then we will have a new game. But right now you gotta play with the bulls, it's the only game in town. Being a contrarian doesn't always work you know.
mlsoft, you continue to find bearish angles on every great piece of news that hits the market. My goodness today's news is great, nobody sells it, Dow and nasdaq at new highs. But you are still trying to find something wrong. Admit the obvious man, the trend is up, this isn't rocket science. Trying to be the first to nail the top is a loser's game. I have tried it myself with the same results. The hardest thing to do here is to join the bulls for a few more weeks and make some money as we take out the highs. Put your pride aside and join the winning team. Then in mid-late September when we get the pullback you can get back on your beloved short side.
This sucker is going up! Everybody can see that. Blackout, bombings in the middle east, wars and the market continues up. What makes you think anybody is gonna sell here? Bull market is synonymous with goin up on good news and doesn't go down on bad news. Like I said, it ain't rocket science. Despite what some people try to make it.
Punkle one more thing. I maybe a short term bull but I haven't freaked out yet. I am gonna be out of these longs if we have a down close in the weekly bar. Until then I am keepin these longs, I think the hedgies will have to cover en mass on a close above 1800.
We are goin to 10K first. Then down. I covered shorts and went long and been making money for a change. Try the winning side for a change.
Santa this is W's master plan. Draw them into Iraq and kick their butts there. T%his will leave us safe and secure over here so that we can continue the bull run. Man I am telling ya, that was a brilliant plan. I didn't vote for the guy but I sure will next time.
Euphoria my a$$. Look around you, most of the guys on this board are bears caught with theirs pants down. Some of newer folks just don't understand that bull markets "climb on a wall of worry". With too many thinking crash and correction this sucker is leaving everyone in the dust. Get with the program, this sucker is goin up!
Nice article but says nothing new. These guys have to publish magazines and sell advertisin. If you look hard enough at the news you can always find reasons to be a bull or a bear. I don't really care where the VIX is. I care where the VIX is going and nobody's gonna tell me that. The bottom line is that price isn't bearish at the moment. Until we get a weekly close below 950 on the S&P you gotta assume that the rally ain't over. I have paid the tuition many times over because I wasn't patient. The trick is to wait for price to give some clues. Sounds easy to do but it's damn hard.
The key word is "eventually". But eventually we are all gonna die too. The insiders sell/buy ratio isn't a timing signal. You gotta have other stuff to trade with. IMHO you can lose money following the insiders just as easily as you can make it.
Logic and common sense says it would. But that ain't gonna happen as long as there is enough of the public ready to pick up the other side of their trades. Why would the public do that? Could be becasuse they believe that the economy is turning around and that they too will eventually make money. As long as the numbers continue to support the turn-around the public will not sell and will buy the dips.
I am with the insiders but they may not always know better. Because if they did they wouldn't own a thing today. They would have sold it all at the top in 2000.
If the insiders are so smart then how come and they didn't sell heavily at the top in 2000? Actually they must be stoopid because they are selling now that the economy is finally beginning to turn around.
Yeah those guys are hosed for sure.
ADX, MACD, RSI, CCI, VXN, PCR, ... ABC, XYZ what the @#*! do all these mean anyway? I can't make heads or tails from all these indicators I am looking at. I have a hard enough time deciphering the damn price chart itself and maybe the volume. The chart says we are consolidating in an uptrend within a larger downtrend. Maybe we break upside or downside from here I can't tell yet, just gotta wait. The Dow looks like its about to break upside, its almost doing it.
I am still trying to figure out where everybody is gettin all this money to buy crap with. Maybe on margin?
I live in CA too and have no clue where people get the money to buy this expensive real estate. I am looking around and seeing everybody driving Lexus and Beemers and Benzies drinking capuccinos while they are driving to who knows where. The neighbor on my left just bought a 25 foot boat and the guy across the street got a pair of jet skis.
I keep asking myself where was I when they were passing out free money? I can't even afford a new Lexus.
I think this bull market is pure bull$hit. After AG finally gets it to 10K on the Dow, party hats on, and just like that it will be over.
Maybe its a bull market, who the $#@! knows. They keep telling us how superbly the economy is performing, growth is coming back, unemployment rate coming down, everybody has money to burn, real estate on fire, technology bottomed out, retailers, cyclicals on fire, yada yaada yaada... The scare mongers keep telling us that if we don't get in now that the early signs of the economy turning around, we'll miss the major move up lasting into the 04 elections next fall.
With a little bit more help from Alan G. we can have a decent bull move. Who knows?
Just buyers then?
Wow, you are pretty damn good for not being a trader. I guess the only thing you could have done better if you were a "trader" is to employ a bigger leverage.
But your timing is truly excellent
>>no use getting ticked at the market for being stupid
You are right of course. But if we take out the highs we take out the highs. You can go ahead and cover yours but I am staying short. Any which way I look at it if I wasn't already short I would become short even on the break to new highs.
The reason I flipped earlier is because I am watching market action a little too close for my own good and I don't even daytrade! Now that I am cooler I am gonna go golfing for the rest of the week and stop looking at the damn monitors. I got time for this trade to pay up.
Best of luck to you as well.
Happy fourth if you are in the US.
Desperate my a$$! But since you mentioned it I think I'll cover my shorts at COMP 5000. That's a good place to cut losses. We need lots more great days like Tuesday to get there. But since we got lots of suckers ready to buy AMZN, YHOO and EBAY at these incredibly low prices it should take less than 4 months to get there if we factor some acceleration to the upside some time in October.
Let's get ready to buy the Nasdaq above 1700!
With a "tight stop" of course!
>>too many eggs in one basket
You are absolutely right Carl. I am short the market by being long QQQ and OEX puts. I have no other eggs because I don't see any other outstanding trading opportunities for the intermediate future (5-6 months out). Everything else (including gold and bonds)looks like a crap shoot to me. The only good trade is in the stock market that is on the short side.
I only diversify when things aren't very clear.
Thanks JB but stopping myself out makes me a buyer at these levels. That means I am on the same side as Larry on TV. Believe me I would normally stop myself out from any other trade and much sooner I might add but in this particular situation I would turn right back around and short the next uptick. That's how good the short side looks to me at the moment. So what's the point of cutting my loss?
Thanks but I think I'll eat some more crow.
>>I think you'll eventually get your 1550, but we could go pretty high in the meantime.
When I put on this trade I wasn't looking to eat an 135 point drawdown so I can break even in the end. I knew I could be off by 100 points or so but this is getting ridiculous. Who are the suckers that are afraid of missing out on this "new bull market"? How many idiots are eating what Larry Kudlow is serving in the evenings?
Thanks for the input but as you can tell I am not a daytrader. I am going to hold the position because I want to be there when they all try to sell this thing and the bid dissapears from under them. It's when their stops can't get filled because no more suckers are there to help them out.
What the #@*! is going on with this market? I have been short and eating crow from COMP 1550 but I can't cover my loss because I think buying here is absolutely fullish. If I hadn't been short at these levels I would most certainly be getting short right now. The problem I have is that looking at the sentiment data nearly every poll appears to be super bullish which is bearish per the theory of contrary opinion. But every internet board I visit the large majority appears to be bearish and looking to go short when "the time comes". So who is the "smart money"? The internet guys or the investment advisors who sell their advice in newsletters?
The damn insiders sure look bearish (else how do you explain the recent dumping of their shares per Vicker's). The commercials are moving on the short side of the S&P futures from being net long since March so this is bearish too. Put-Call and VIX are low but that doesn't imply we are going up or down so I don't pay much attention until they start trending higher.
When in doubt look at the trend. Which way is it going? Well it is up from March 2003, it is down from March 2000, and it is up from 1982. My trading time frame is 6 months. Which of these f#@*%! trends am I supposed to go with?
I don't look at valuations because they mean nothing. The meant nothing in 1999 and they probably mean nothing now. We get a divident tax cut and you would think the divident-paying stocks would soar. Instead the zero-earnings stocks are rocketing! How many more shorts is this market gonna burn before it goes in the right direction? I am gonna stop here because I am beginning to lose my grip.
Thanks for listening. I am pissed cause I know they are gunning for the stops above the recent highs. Well, they are not gonna get mine.
I think I am beginning to understand the lack of selling pressure in the market these days. I was having lunch today with someone who I consider pretty intelligent and who has been in the market 100% long and has consistently been buying equities and equity mutual funds for decades. This guy buys a fixed amount of stock once every 2 weeks. He is a baby boomer with another 9 years before he retires and has done quite well (although he is less well now than he was in early 2000). He expressed regret for not selling in 2000 but he told me there is no way he would sell now at these "firesale" prices. But because of the market crash in 2000 he is no longer going to be a long-term holder of equities and will look to sell half of his holdings once the market goes higher. To put this into context I was trying to explain to him that the market is short term "overbought" at current levels and that he may want to consider selling a little and load up later at better prices. But here is the thing he said that stunned me (his words):
"The market is overbought because it knows something that most people who trade everyday don't know. I plan to continue buying every 2 weeks until the reasons for the current rally become obvious to all. At that point I will stop buying and start selling. I am prepared to sell half of my position at Dow 10000 or Nasdaq 2000 whichever comes first".
I on the other hand am in 100% cash and looking to short when the signal comes. But I was blown away by his statement that "the market knows something" and the stupid traders who are shorting don't know. If this attitude is widespread it would indeed explain why Lowry's selling pressure has dried up!
Michael, take it easy man you gonna blow a gasket. I just felt the urgent need to reply to you because I feel your "pain". It is coming right through my screen.
I know its no consolation but you are not the only one that got caught on the short side. Some very smart people are short and "eating it" right now. But here is the important thing: understand that you are a mere participant in the "Matrix" (No you are NOT "Neo") and you are plugged in just like the rest of us. To beat the Matrix you gotta be better than 95% of its participants and that means "patience" and "wait for your turn". For whatever reason (i.e, "DA TREND") The participants are driving this thing higher and no one knows when the music will stop. Of course the market deserves to be at a 50% discount right now but in the "Matrix", this isn't what it is. Accept it, deal with it, and wait for your turn to come. And believe me your turn WILL come! Just make sure you have money left for when it does.
Best
Coaster